Welcome to another week! For the new readers: every week I comment on the top prediction markets—selected by volume, volatility and surprising resolutions—across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science. Markets first, news through their lens, not the other way around.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Midterms

I have some good news for Democrats. Over the last week, the chance of a blue sweep rose by 3 points to 66% on the wave of continuously favorable polls and increasingly bullish forecasts.

The most watched race of this cycle barely moved, however:

Traders and election nerds are trying to deduce something from early voting data. My testing on OMEN proved without a doubt that early voting data is purely noise (yes, including Nevada), so I don’t use it in my analysis.

I also have a small morning midterms forecast update for the start of the week for paid subscribers:

The Fed

This week we have the Fed decision on rates. Traders have a pretty good idea what that will be after Warsh’s comments in Bangkok on the back of the hot CPI print.

While no change now is the prevailing opinion, forecasts for the December meeting are expecting a continuation of the hiking cycle:

The Americas

Brazil Presidential Election

Down south, Brazil held the runoff to the presidential election. Models, experts, polls and prediction markets had Flávio as the clear favorite. However, his chances started to drop after the Supreme Court decided to extend voting by two hours due to weather and transport problems in some municipalities.

In hindsight, this was the first signal that something might go different with the election. And once the additional two hours passed and first votes came in, it quickly became clear who is the winner:

Lula held a slight lead almost from the beginning (outside of a small Flávio surge in the first 10% of the vote) with early signs that the lead is robust—he outperformed his first round result by a few points across all counted votes.

Did my forecast end up being wrong? Not necessarily—events with an 18% chance of happening do happen roughly 18% of the time… It was a good thing I had a live vote projection module, which helped me see Lula’s lead early on. If it weren’t for my initial disbelief, I could have ended up even more in the green.

Asia

No interesting markets in Asia last week.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran War

The Iran war is still in a stalemate. We have some renewed rumors about a potential escalation, but for now the markets are not pricing in any increased volatility:

Both final deal and Strait-of-Hormuz-related markets are flat or down.

US-Iran ceasefire markets are more volatile, but still in an upward trend:

Traders are not expecting strikes before the midterms, especially with all the bad publicity around the war; they give an 82% chance of the ceasefire holding through the end of the month.

The Houthis

On the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, the Houthis and Saudis continue to exchange blows. While the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait looks safe, we had news that the US ordered non-essential staff to leave Saudi Arabia last week.

This war also impacts the wider final Iran deal market. The issue of Iranian proxies is once again one of the talking points, and with the Yemeni war raging on, there is little chance of an imminent deal.

Israel

In the meantime, Israel is heading to the polls tomorrow in what shapes up to be an extremely difficult election and coalition-building period.

No bloc is expected to win an outright majority, raising a serious argument for a repeat election soon after this one ends.

Ultimately, traders see Netanyahu losing power:

Years of war and a series of personal scandals following Bibi might be too much for yet another reelection.

Europe

The Ukraine War

With the Iran war in a stalemate, it’s the Ukraine war that is picking up the pace, both in terms of peace efforts and escalations. On the one hand we have the recent peace plan along with Melania’s localized ceasefire.

On the other hand, Russian incursions into NATO territories increase:

This market should have resolved last week on the shot-down drones in Romanian territorial waters (see the spike?). However, the Polymarket team decided to once again tighten the rules on the market, leaving me and other sharp traders holding the bags…

Taking both into account, traders see little chance for durable peace in Ukraine. Neither the peace proposal nor the recent escalations moved the market by meaningful amount.

Serbia

Brazil was not the only country with a surprising election result this weekend. In Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić unexpectedly lost power to the Student List. The party built on the back of months-long student-led protests got majority in parliament.

Vučić conceded the election quickly and without a fuss.

France

France is still in the streets. What started in mid-September as high school blockades over crumbling schools has turned into a nationwide revolt over the cost of living. On Saturday, 410,000 people marched and nearly 1,000 were arrested. Macron met student representatives for the first time on Friday, but it didn’t calm anyone down.

On October 18, Retailleau demanded a state of emergency. Lecornu went for local night curfews instead, and the market got the message:

The year-end market fell from a 37% peak to 9%.

Interestingly, Le Pen’s chances dropped 5 points to 43% over the week, even though Ifop still has her at 36% in the first round and winning every runoff test.

On the debt side, Moody’s kept France at Aa3 with a negative outlook, even as the 10Y breached 5.1% for the first time since 2002. Just days earlier, traders priced a downgrade above 90%:

Other

AI

Lastly, Anthropic released Claude Duet—an early, waitlist-only app that aims to put Anthropic on par with Grok Bot, OpenAI’s Dots and Meta’s Muse. I’m yet to use the product, but honestly, I’m in no rush.

My current setup already utilizes agents and Claude Duet seems more like a nice UX over Claude Code than a proper standalone product. Rumors are that Duet is in fact a wrapper on Claude Code.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! This week I plan rolling updates on the midterms and a short post-mortem of Brazil presidential election. I’ll come back to geopolitics a bit after the midterms…

In the meantime, stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

I’m back with the forecast updates after a brief hiatus. With 10 days to midterms, there’s plenty to cover, and there will be more. Starting next week I’ll try to have daily updates. From the running forecasts, I also have the Brazil Presidential election which heads to runoff tomorrow. I think traders are underpricing Flávio Bolsonaro again.

Today I’ll cover both. On the midterms, we had a dump of fresh polls on previously unpolled House races and Vivek’s infamous ad on Acton impacting the markets most. In Brazil, the key is how the undecided break with polls showing an extremely close race.

Midterms

It’s been only 3 days since I published my midterms forecast and we already have quite a big change in the House topline. Senate control chances also moved by over 1 point, a testament to how close the race for the upper chamber of Congress is.

Read more

Creating a model of US elections is a nightmare, you know? In these midterms alone, we have 506 individual races. Apart from the governor races, they all add up to Senate and House control. There are two ways to model it: you can go the easy way and do it top down, meaning extrapolating national data to seat allocation, or you can do it the hard way and model every single race bottom-up.

There are, of course, different pros and cons depending on the approach. The easy way gets you 80% there—you have a number, but it’s a ballpark figure with no option to trade individual races. And you can build it with little modeling experience.

For me, easy paths are boring, so I took the hard one. OMEN (Odds and Margins for Every Nominee) looks at every race and builds Senate, House and governor forecasts bottom-up. Thanks to that, every race has its own forecast, and the toplines are built from them. The drawback is time—it took me weeks of work to set up the model and then fine-tune it to actually work. Without Claude Code, it would probably have taken me a year.

Ultimately, the model ended up close to the market and other public forecasts. It’s no shocker. After all, US elections are the most traded elections in the world, and plenty of traders run their own models. This is exactly the reason I built it bottom-up—while the topline diff is minimal, there are several races where my forecast diverges from the market.

Before we dive into specific races, a few words on the toplines.

OMEN

OMEN is a proper election model. Each forecast starts from a prior built on fundamentals, and polls then update it. The model is fitted on past races and tested on other past elections it was not fitted on.

All probabilities come from 20,000 Monte Carlo draws. For every race and every aggregate market, OMEN gives a probability with its range, and a vote share with its p10–p90 band.

Senate

Both OMEN and I are bullish on Democrats. The topline is slightly above the market. The gap is clearer in the seat markets: I’m more bullish on Republicans winning fewer than 48 seats, and less bullish on exactly 48. Otherwise, you can see that the seat curve tracks the market.

I think that Democrats were dealt absolutely amazing cards this cycle. Global disruptions are putting pressure on prices in the very regions where Republicans are strongest. At the same time, Democrats have no coherent plan to actually use this advantage; no proper leader to chart the course. In fact, little has changed since the 2024 defeat.

While the national environment is propping Democrats up, they still face tough races in several states: Alaska, Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Maine, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan. Later in this article, each gets its own segment with a forecast and overall race context.

House

To my surprise, while OMEN is more bullish than the market on the Senate, it trails it on the House. The difference is once again minimal, but this time the seat brackets tell a different story. Mostly because the House seat book is almost empty; partly because OMEN really does differ from the consensus.

Unlike in the Senate, here I think OMEN has it right. Its seat curve is much smoother, closer to a real probability distribution. I also think a lot of traders treat a Dem House as a bond, which pushes the price slightly above fair.

One caveat: the House is far harder to model, because many races have no polls at all. That’s why its ranges are wider. And control will come down to a handful of races, which I cover below.

Governor

Governor races are the least surprising. Almost every topline, from control down to the exact number of governors, has the market price inside OMEN’s range.

Here, again, I’m bullish on Democrats. I’m not sure there’s a way not to be, with the generic ballot at D+9. Yet social media is full of people too lazy to look at the data, but never too lazy to run their mouths.

The governor landscape is a close copy of the Senate, with fewer flippable races: Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin.

Topline Remarks

One more detail on polls—I’m the last person to trust them blindly. Most of my election trading has gone against the market: Poland, the 2024 US election, Portugal, and recently Brazil. Based on these alone, you could even say I’m biased towards the right.

But in each of these cases, a big trend favored the underdog. If I hand-adjusted anything on the topline, it would be the generic ballot—even more bullish on Democrats.

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Deeper

The fun part starts when we look at individual races. Here, OMEN sometimes significantly differs from the market. Even more interesting, it doesn’t lean one way across the board: in some races it’s more bullish on Democrats than the market, in others on Republicans. That’s a sign of a good fit—it’s easy to build a model that leans to one side, much harder to build a balanced one.

This section is today’s snapshot with context. As news comes in, I’ll share regular (maybe daily?) OMEN updates, with commentary on the races that move most.

This part is for my paid subscribers, but there’s one race I simply need to show before the paywall.

Senate

Alaska

I am bullish on Democrats taking the Senate. Yet I can’t agree with the market on Alaska. Peltola leads every recent poll, but only by 1 to 7 points. No poll has her above 50%, which hurts her in ranked-choice counting.

Yes, Sullivan did poorly at the debates. But Alaska is a deeply red state, and Sullivan is an incumbent (yes, it does work in his favor). Ranked-choice voting helps him too, because every other candidate on the ballot is a Republican. His namesake will take a small share of votes meant for him, and most of those will flow back to the ‘correct’ Sullivan in later rounds. The transfer assumptions you need to get Peltola to the market’s 0.73/0.74 are simply unrealistic.

Her chances ride on the national environment, and OMEN accounts for that. She is almost tied for a Senate seat in a state that Trump won by 13.1 points in 2024. She lost her House seat in that election, but only by 2.4 points. The model recognizes that. However, it weighs it against Alaska’s lean and history, Sullivan’s incumbency and other factors. Ultimately, it sees a toss-up. While it’s bearish vs other public forecasts, I consider it bullish—Republicans were almost 80% favorites to win Alaska a year ago!

That being said, I’m positioned against Peltola. Partly because it’s a great +EV position, and partly because it hedges a systematic poll miss against my otherwise Dem-leaning book.

Read more

Welcome to another week! For the new readers: every week I comment on the top prediction markets—selected by volume, volatility and surprising resolutions—across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science. Markets first, news through their lens, not the other way around.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Midterms

The midterms got boring stable. We’ve been at 62-63% chance Democrats sweep for almost two weeks. New polls across districts and states show little difference vs old ones.

I believe the market is not bullish enough on the sweep at this point. My model gives a 66% chance of a D House + D Senate and a 21% chance for a split Congress. The interesting part here is how the model approaches the joint probabilities. Both House and Senate depend a lot on the final generic ballot, meaning they move in tandem—that’s why the chance Democrats sweep is barely lower than the chance they get the Senate.

When it comes to toss-up races, Texas is leading the pack in terms of volume and general interest:

After the disappearance drama, the market settled on a 63% chance Talarico wins the seat. I don’t agree here. Despite being bullish on Democrats this cycle, I see only a 59% chance Texas goes blue.

Sure, Paxton is a terrible candidate—but Texas is still a deeply red state. The fact that Talarico breaches 50% in some polls is reassuring, but not enough to put his chance above 60%.

I’m diving deeper into individual races in my upcoming midterms article. I’m planning to publish it tomorrow.

The Fed

Last week we had a hot CPI print. Both headline and core came in above consensus, driven mostly by energy prices (headline) and a broad-based rise (core). For a moment, the market got chaotic, as if afraid that a hot CPI print might change the Fed’s decision. The subsequent hot PPI print added fuel to it.

Hike bets faded just a couple of days later after Kevin Warsh said that he didn’t prejudge meetings and that the data had broadly matched the Fed’s expectations since the September hike. Now traders see an 88% chance of no change in interest rates, above 84% pre-CPI.

The Americas

Brazil Presidential Election

In Brazil, the Lula vs Flávio runoff is getting more interesting by the day. Initially, riding Flávio’s first-round win, traders gave him an 89% chance to win the election. Since then, several polls have shown a race that is closer than expected:

Flávio still holds a slight advantage, but Lula cut some distance—R1 results suggested a 52/48 split in favor of Flávio. The runoff is this Sunday. After R1 I thought that nothing interesting could happen in this race, but now I guess I have to publish a small forecast update. Expect it towards the end of the week.

Asia

No interesting markets in Asia last week.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran War

The Middle East is still embroiled in a war with no end in sight. There’s been no real progress since the UNGA. The two sides have narrowed some gaps, but they still disagree on the key issue—who moves first.

As a result, all dovish markets are down.

Additionally, there’s been a sharp uptick in the number of attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is trying to increase pressure on Trump ahead of the midterms:

For now, Trump is holding off on resuming hostilities, but some reports suggest a new kinetic round might happen just after the Israeli and US elections.

What we generally see are stale markets with theta decay. The news is only producing small moves that never break the overall trend line. With just over two weeks until the midterms, little can change.

The Houthis

The Saudi-Houthi war is where all the action is. The Houthis have hit King Khalid airport in Riyadh at least 20 times since Oct 1. Saudi Arabia is coordinating a ground offensive against the Houthis (through the Yemeni government forces).

Pakistan has its troops in Saudi Arabia, while Egypt is joining the war defensively. GCC foreign ministers now want the Iran peace deal to include proxies, missiles and drones. And Trump is mulling over joining the war.

If anything, it further decreases the chances for a peace deal in the Iran war. At least the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait looks safe…

Israel

While the war goes on, Israelis go to vote in just eight days. Current forecast puts Likud behind Yashar, but the truth is that neither is likely to get enough votes to form a majority:

Traders are looking towards long negotiations (or possibly even another election), but see Gadi Eisenkot as the favorite:

Europe

The Ukraine War

Washington moved toward Moscow this week. Trump eased sanctions on Russian diesel, waived key parts of the Graham sanctions law, announced an “energy ceasefire” Russia never accepted, and paused intelligence sharing with Kyiv for three days. Kyiv’s answer: restarted refinery strikes and the largest drone attack of the war, ca. 1,000 drones aimed mostly at St Petersburg.

The front barely moved. Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia experienced another airspace incursion, and similarly to the Iran war, we are nowhere near peace:

France

Protests in France fueled a spike in Marine Le Pen’s chances to win the presidency next year. On Saturday, Oct 17, a student-led protest over the cost of living turned violent, making it one of France’s most violent weekends in years. More than 1,800 people were arrested, and a town hall was burned.

This is far from over. Protests started among students last month, then quickly spread across France. They are now out of control. Macron held an emergency meeting on Sunday, then spoke to the nation. He blamed “insurrectionist elements from radical far-left groups” and “numerous criminals,” and said looters would pay.

Romania

It looks like Romania is coming out of its government crisis. After months of negotiations, Luca Niculescu secured enough support to win the confidence vote.

The vote is still due to happen, but traders have little doubt it will go through. It’s a big win for the president, who was desperately looking to avoid a snap election. We will see, though, for how long—chances are the new government will be unstable.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! The midterms article is going slower than expected, but I hope to publish it tomorrow.

In the meantime, stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! For the new readers: every week I comment on the top prediction markets—selected by volume, volatility and surprising resolutions—across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science. Markets first, news through their lens, not the other way around.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Midterms

No week is a bad week if you are a Democrat. Blue sweep now has a 67% chance, up 4 points in a week. Republican Senate chances are the culprit, currently at the lowest level in a month:

Last week was especially brutal for Republicans in Alaska, Ohio, Texas and Kansas. Even a 3-to-1 funding advantage in Texas is not enough to move the needle.

I’ll be launching my midterms forecast in the coming days and I’ll pit it against the market daily.

The Fed

Republicans at least got a break from the Fed. Officials could have announced another hike instead of calming markets about the rate path. A few of them presented dovish views on the short-term outlook, pushing the no-change odds in October to 84%.

That didn’t, however, stop the rising long-term yields. 30Y breached 5.50% last week and is close to breaching 5.65%:

The 10Y is just below 5.3%:

And whether he likes it or not, Trump is not going to be saved by a hold.

The Americas

Brazil Presidential Election

Brazil is fresh out of the first round of the presidential election. In a (not so) surprising outcome, Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round and is an 83% favorite to win the runoff.

My forecast saw this coming. Yesterday I published that the first round was close to 50/50, with Bolsonaro a 72% favorite overall. The model also called 3rd place correctly:

I’ll have a short update to the forecast before the second round. You can take a look at what assumptions drove my model in yesterday’s deep dive:

Asia

No interesting markets in Asia last week.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran War

The Iran war is still in a stalemate. Negotiations have stalled since America sent its counterproposal to Iran on the eve of October. The deal market is flat, a decent sign given theta decay.

US officials and military met at Camp David on October 2 to discuss the current wars. Supposedly, a lot was decided, or deeply discussed. The White House continues its narrative about the war ending very soon, just after the midterms. The blockade and Strait of Hormuz opening markets are flat, though. Traders aren’t buying the rhetoric yet:

No kinetic action is expected in the foreseeable future:

On the commodities side, no diesel export ban is expected anymore:

European nations agreed to release their strategic reserves, calming the market for the time being.

The Houthis

The Houthis and Saudi Arabia continue to exchange strikes as the Yemen civil war reignites. Saudi-backed forces announced a plan to eliminate the Houthis, moving from preparations to action.

As a result, the oil infrastructure in the region is strained even further. The East-West pipeline is still not confirmed to be running, with traders slowly losing hope:

Luckily, the US-led escort operation in Hormuz is partially offsetting that.

Israel

To close out the Middle East, we have a potential flippening in Israel. Likud is leading in recent polls, making it increasingly likely that Netanyahu keeps his job:

Traders now give Likud a 54% chance to win the election:

However, Eisenkot is still the favorite to be the next prime minister:

Looks like there are plenty more surprises ahead of us in this election.

Europe

The Ukraine War

The noise around a potential Russia-NATO escalation has quieted down:

The market fell as the narrative faded. However, the war is far from done. Russia is intensifying its energy strikes ahead of winter, and so is Ukraine. Russia also targets major Ukrainian cities to increase war fatigue.

The White House is still trying to arrange peace talks, with the newest push aiming to set up technical-level talks by the end of October. The market’s opinion on their potential success is clear:

Spain

Fresh news from the European morning—Spain’s PM called a snap election for November 29 after a major housing bill failed to pass parliament. The right-wing bloc is widely expected to win and form a coalition (PP+Vox):

It will be an interesting one to model!

France

In France, Le Pen’s chances to be the next president rose by 6 points amid countrywide protests, which started as demonstrations against the state of the schooling system before turning violent.

Over 400 schools are closed due to deteriorating security conditions and over 5,000 people were arrested. Another protest push is planned for Tuesday.

Other

AI

Google rose from the ashes to once again dominate the benchmarks. Their newest model, Gemini 4 Argon, currently tops the text benchmark, ahead of Opus 5.5 and Fable 5.1.

Traders still expect Fable 5.5 to drop soon and leave Gemini far behind.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! Coming up: a Brazil update (as part of a wider forecast update on Ukraine and Iran) + a new midterms series; I’m also overdue for the State of PROPHET NOTES. Then I’ll focus on the Spanish election.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

It’s been a while since I did an election deep dive. And by coincidence, it was Portugal! Now I venture again into the Portuguese-speaking world to point out where the market is wrong. And this time, I’m doing it properly.

I used to do simple models to approximate where the market is wrong (as in the Polish presidential election). Now, I’m taking my election trading a step further with proper proprietary models. Brazil is the first real test of my skill, but hardly the last one—I am building a forecast for the midterms (the Senate and Governor races, to be precise), which should launch as a series here next week.

This should be fun and profitable, so let’s take a look at Brazil.

Context

I’m going to be brief here. Lula vs Bolsonaro is like Trump vs Democrats—a decade+ battle between the right and left. Both politicians led the country at some point, but unlike in America, in Brazil the right-wing leader was eventually found guilty of attempting a coup and jailed. Now, his son, currently a Senator, is the right’s candidate, aiming to take back power and free his father.

Fundamentals

Fundamentals are slightly favoring a challenger. The labor market is robust, but slow growth and above-target inflation are working against Lula.

It shows in his approval rating, which never fully recovered from its early-2025 low and slipped again in September:

Political Climate

Brazilians have lived under extreme political polarization for over a decade. They are increasingly tired of the overall political climate, which shows in social surveys:

Brazilians are increasingly polarized, but at the same time disengaged; those who stick with following politics become hardline, while others become less and less engaged over time. The fear of politically-motivated violence is still high, as is general distrust among voters.

But most importantly, about half of Brazilians say this election draws less interest than 2022 (Datafolha: 47% less, 44% more). Seeing that, both contenders are trying their best to activate fatigued voters. I’ve analyzed dozens of elections in my life, and Brazil is at the frontier of political campaigning. The center of each campaign is WhatsApp, where campaigns run anything from simple coordination to gamified challenges aiming to convert new voters.

Other Candidates

When analyzing two-round elections, it’s always important to look at candidates beyond the top two. While they are extremely unlikely to achieve anything, their voters overwhelmingly tend to vote in the second round. How they transfer is key. Today, we have three contenders for the third place—Augusto Cury, Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado.

Cury is a bestselling self-help author (and the richest candidate per the official numbers) running as the anti-polarization candidate. He attracts voters that are tired of the current political climate.

Santos is a right wing candidate, a mix between Milei and Bukele. He attracts mainly young voters; online polls show him well above other minor candidates, but on the ground polling didn’t replicate this discrepancy.

Caiado is another right-wing candidate with a hardline stance on security. He is polling the lowest out of the three and is strongest in Goiás, where he was governor, and in the Federal District.

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Forecast

My headline forecast is very bullish Bolsonaro:

What’s cool about having a full-fledged model is that I can trace back to what exact assumptions are pushing my model away from the market. This reverse-engineering exercise is not perfect (the market price is an average of multiple models and vibe-based forecasts), but it allows me to challenge my key assumptions.

While I directionally agree with the main market, the devil is in the details. I have some disagreements when it comes to margins and order in the first round.

In the below section for the paid subscribers, I explain what assumptions drive my model, what specific adjustments diverge my forecast from the market and what is my setup for the first round.

Vote Share

Read more

Welcome to another week! For the new readers: every week I comment on the top prediction markets—selected by volume, volatility and surprising resolutions—across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science. Markets first, news through their lens, not the other way around.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Midterms

Last week brought some stabilization to the midterms forecast. The Democratic sweep chances peaked at 66% before falling back to the current 61%. Adjacent’s SENR Index indicates this is a story of two races at the moment:

On the one hand, we have Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed extended his lead in the polls:

He now has a 71% chance to win the election, up from 67% a week ago. If this week’s polling sees the trend continue, we should see the market go into the high 70s.

On the other hand, we have Maine, where last week’s NYT/Siena poll showed Collins in the lead:

It’s the first time since June polling indicates Maine will be a close race, pushing the forecast towards 50/50.

Chances are, this week the overall Senate market will be flat, with Republican losses in Michigan offset by Maine gains. But then, we have Texas and Kansas that can push the Democrats higher.

The Fed

With Republicans losing across the board, a hike in October would be politically awkward for Warsh. The FOMC meeting is scheduled just a week before the election, making the decision a political one—not directly, since the hike would take time to impact the economy, but as a narrative.

The market seems to be pushing the Fed to hike, as visible on the long-term yields market:

However, TIPS analysis suggests it’s not inflation the market is worried about:

The more appropriate interpretation is that the market expects to see a higher neutral rate in the future. A combination of global supply chains breaking down and uncertainty around AI’s future impact on the labor market must play a key role here.

LA Mayoral Election

We had a surprise flippening on the LA Mayoral Election market. Nithya Raman is now a 58% favorite to win, after a new poll put her 11 points ahead of the incumbent, Karen Bass.

Both, however, are members of the Democratic Party, making it an internal race, rather than a Red vs Blue clash in LA.

The Americas

Brazil Presidential Election

This week, we have the first round of the Brazilian presidential election. Currently, Flávio Bolsonaro is a 58% favorite to win, despite losing in the first round polls:

Traders also have little doubt about the first round alone, where Lula is a 75% favorite:

It’s the runoff polls that drive the market:

Flávio Bolsonaro is expected to get most of the transfer voters, putting him ahead in most of the polls.

I also have a small Yes position on Bolsonaro to win with my current FV at 64%. I might write a deep dive on the election this week depending on the schedule.

Asia

No interesting markets in Asia last week.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran War

The UNGA in New York brought a new peace effort. Iranian officials used their visit to appear in American media and propose a new deal, aiming to open the Strait of Hormuz in 7 days on condition that the US lifts its blockade:

Trump, initially receptive to the idea, rejected it on Saturday, pushing the peace, blockade and Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization markets down:

However, Axios reports that new talks are scheduled for today on top of repeated reports of Gulf officials passing messages between America and Iran.

Iran denies any talks are happening.

Either way, the market doesn’t expect an imminent return to hostilities:

Trump himself doesn’t expect to order strikes before the midterms, in an effort to avoid further disruptions before the election.

We come into the week with a peace narrative. The next few days will show us whether it yields any results. If not, Trump has few options:

Traders see very little risk of an export ban, mainly due to its detrimental consequences to the American economy. Regionally, the Northeast would be hit hardest (it depends on imported fuel), and jet fuel and gasoline prices would spike.

The Houthis

The fighting in Yemen continues. The ongoing hostilities are what keeps the market flat against theta decay. Soon, this market will be an interesting bond again (I already hold a No position on the year-end market).

In the meantime, the East-West pipeline is still not operational:

There were some rumors early last week that the pipeline had restarted, but the Saudis have yet to confirm it. There are also fresh rumors from today, this time in Bloomberg (last time Reuters broke the story).

Even if the pipeline restarts soon, Saudi Aramco has already invoked force majeure on October deliveries to Europe.

As a result, the market is slowly decaying towards zero.

Israel

Little has changed in the Knesset election forecast. Neither bloc can get a clear majority in the polls, but traders still see Netanyahu as less likely than Eizenkot to be the next prime minister:

Europe

The Ukraine War

Russian provocations have decreased recently, after weeks of almost daily incidents around Europe. The Duma election is over, and now it is time to look for new signals on Russia’s strategy:

The markets are flat despite the lack of news, anticipating new escalations soon. The same can be said about the Ukraine war ceasefire market, which didn’t even budge on the Witkoff-Kushner visit:

It’s been a long time since my last article on the war. High time I revisited the topic in the next couple of weeks.

Germany

After a series of elections in Germany, the CDU is in a tough spot. They lost ground in every September election, while AfD is leading in national polls.

However, German politics has no tradition of calling snap elections, unlike British politics. The markets, initially fueled by post-Berlin election speculation, look like a safe bond now.

Romania

In Romania, the government crisis continues. This week, a third prime minister nominee faces a confidence vote that is likely to fail. PSD refused to back the PNL nominee just today, after a week of speculation.

The failure would enable Nicușor Dan, the liberal president, to call a new election. Analysts, however, don’t see it as likely—AUR, a right-wing, EU-skeptic party, leads the polls.

Other

Nobel Peace Prize

Lastly, we have a new Nobel Peace Prize market. Last year’s market got famous due to some trader finding the winner early by reviewing the sitemap. Will this year’s market be as interesting? I hope so, but for now I don’t see any edge here.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! Coming up: either a Brazil deep dive or a Ukraine focus piece.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

I’m reviving this series as a forecast update on the global events I cover. While deep dives are great for introducing a new thesis, they are not optimal for updating. Each deep dive is standalone and needs full context, so I kept repeating large parts of a thesis in every update. Now, I will be able to update you on a rolling basis and build up my theses step by step.

Today I’ll start with the Fed post-mortem and its implications. Then I have a forecast update on Iran and Ukraine after the UNGA.

The Fed

The hike vs no hike thesis was a simple one. It was essentially the market vs the belief in Trump (or the belief that there is a plan). The Fed-Treasury Accord, the grand strategies, Project 2025, Miran’s paper… all imploded on September 16th. However you want to look at it, there’s nothing good for Trump coming out of the hike. But this is only half of the story.

The most important signal about the FOMC wasn’t the decision to hike. It was the fact that the decision was unanimous. The economic data on its own didn’t call for a hike. It was Warsh’s suggestive language that pushed the yields higher. The very person who wanted to abolish forward guidance fell victim to it. Or did he?

Read more

Welcome to another week! For the new readers: every week I comment on the top prediction markets—selected by volume, volatility and surprising resolutions—across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science. Markets first, news through their lens, not the other way around.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Midterms

After last week, Democrats might have put some big champagne orders. Polls, both local and generic ballot, were extremely favorable to the blue side—sweep chance went from 53% to 61%.

Other forecasts are aligned. Adjacent’s SEND Index is up almost 3% on the week:

Nate Silver is also bullish on Democrats with his model showing a 65.1% chance the Senate turns blue:

It is clear that the GOP struggles against Trump’s policies (mostly the Iran war and tariffs), which put pressure on domestic agriculture and manufacturing. Bar a sudden reversal in the Iran war, this is just the beginning of a trend.

The Fed

Against my thesis, the Fed hiked, prompting many to believe that a new cycle has started.

The decision was unanimous, a large surprise vs pre-meeting consensus which expected a split vote. Siding with the market in such a way sends a strong signal to the Trump admin, to the market itself and to the voters.

However, next month’s decision depends on whether this was a Bernanke- or a Kohn-type hike.

Greenland

We also had a surprise—Trump announced a deal with Greenland that would give America slightly more rights (probably, full text still pending) over the island than the 1951 treaty does.

The market was caught completely by surprise as there were no rumors ahead of the announcement. At least we can be sure there were no insiders.

The Americas

Brazil Presidential Election

Amazing things are happening in Brazil. Only a month ago, Flávio Bolsonaro had a 33% chance to win and now traders give him a 59% chance to be the next president of Brazil.

All thanks to a series of recent polls that consistently put Lula behind the right-wing candidate:

The market gives Bolsonaro a slight premium vs polls, suggesting that traders bet on his momentum.

Asia

Last week also marked the first major scare in Europe over a possible clash with Russia. Incidentally, some European leaders mentioned fearing a double war—Russia vs Europe and China vs Taiwan at the same time.

That likely explains the surge in volume on the Taiwan invasion market. However, there were plenty of traders willing to take the No side as the price didn’t move at all—the market still sees the invasion as highly unlikely.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran War

We are seeing the first signs of bullishness on the US-Iran peace markets. This is the inflection point I’ve been pointing out in my paid articles—this week sees the most important meetings between world leaders at the UN General Assembly in New York.

This is the single best opportunity to launch a peace effort before the midterms. And it’s the best lever the GOP has on the Senate:

It goes against expectations (ie. it’s a positive surprise) and would be highly popular (Americans already wrote off the war as lost based on a Marquette poll). If the effort succeeds, it could also lower diesel prices just ahead of the election.

The market on the US blockade ending by end of October sits at 37%, already pricing in a fair chance of small progress:

However, the downstream markets are flat, suggesting that traders have low expectations of serious progress:

This week is decisive. If nothing comes out of New York, expect a longer conflict.

The Houthis

The market on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure eased off a bit after Trump said that he reached an understanding with the Houthis. The group will refrain from attacking US vessels in exchange for no American strikes on its positions.

This, however, won’t change the fact that the East-West pipeline is damaged and traders see a 71% chance it will stay that way till the end of the month:

Israel

Israel’s reduced role in the war may be connected to the upcoming Knesset election.

The Iran war was not exactly popular in Israel either, but that cannot be said about the Lebanon war, which continues uninterrupted.

Maybe this week’s polls will move the market if we get more results which favor Likud.

Europe

The Ukraine War

Russia is coming out of the Duma election with Putin’s party stronger than ever, thanks to rigging a great program and the stellar performance of the Russian economy, of course.

Ukraine celebrated the election by sending over 1,000 drones at Moscow. At the same time, European leaders are expressing unprecedented levels of fear and are openly warning of a possible clash with Russia. The market on the NATO-Russia military clash rose on the news:

Tensions are especially high after we learned that Russia introduced a curfew near the border with Estonia:

In this environment it is difficult to speak of any durable peace between the two countries:

It’s pretty clear by now that both sides need to fight it out a bit more.

France

Europe is entering its most difficult period in decades as the old elites lose their ground. France will hold a presidential election in April next year and Marine Le Pen is slowly pulling ahead of Édouard Philippe.

I will cover the French election next year, along with other crucial votes on the calendar.

Germany

Germany held elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and both produced a surprising result. In the former, Linke outperformed its polls, while CDU fell below 20% of the vote; in the latter, CDU failed to clear the 5% threshold and didn’t make it into the Landtag!

As a result, the chance that Merz resigns this year is now at 24%:

It is increasingly clear that the next election will belong to the AfD.

Other

AI

Lastly, some AI news. Anthropic initially planned an October IPO; after last week’s comments about frontier progress slowing, traders now put the offering around Nov–Dec.

Additionally, OpenAI is actively suggesting they are way ahead of Anthropic, which could weigh on the IPO. Rumors are that we might see one more new model from the Claude creator soon though.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’m planning to release the Fed post mortem this week, with a few important implications and changes to my strategy.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

What a ride! We went from a 76% chance of no change to an 88% chance of a 25bps hike in less than a month:

What pushed the market towards this view? We have three inflection points:

1. Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, and more precisely, his hiking path parable, along with his hard stance on inflation.

2. PPI coming in hotter than expected.

3. CPI coming in slightly above expectations, days after the PPI print.

In essence, the market took in an extremely complex situation (current-state global economy) and applied a rather simplistic heuristic—if CPI=cool then hold, else hike.

Is this a place in which a nuanced approach gives alpha? Or rather, should I conform to the crude reasoning of the market? Kevin Warsh is a new chair trying to implement a new regime, so I think we should all decide for ourselves. After all, that’s what Warsh wants us to do!

I am a fan of a nuanced approach.

Read more

Welcome to another week! For the new readers: every week I comment on the top prediction markets—selected by volume, volatility and surprising resolutions—across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science. Markets first, news through their lens, not the other way around.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Midterms

Last week was good to the Democrats. After a series of favorable polls across battleground states, they now hold the widest lead yet in Silver Bulletin’s forecast:

Adjacent’s indices also put Democrats as slight favorites, though the gap is narrower here:

This is a direct result of the Iran war. Last week I showed you the record diesel crack spread. There’s a catch, though: the premium needs time to flow downstream (to the end customer—you), so these polls reflect sentiment from before the latest price increase. Democrats have more upside coming.

I expect Democrats to continue to outperform in the polls, unless we get a new, real peace narrative. Speaking of, there’s one more person who would love to see one this week.

The Fed

This person is Kevin Warsh. Friday’s CPI print came in hot not cool enough and now traders give an 80% chance of a hike this week. Warsh gave traders little choice—he pressured the market to figure out the interest rate without input from the Fed, and it called his bluff.

Surprisingly, for now the market sees only one hike this year:

This runs against my analysis. If the Fed decided to destroy demand to rein in inflation, it would have to start a hiking cycle. A 25 bps increase is not nearly enough to move the policy into restrictive territory.

Yet, a single hike in September is the base case:

For me the decision is still highly dependent on the course of the Iran war. Taking it into account, along with the market’s assessment of the decision, I need to drop my FV of no hike from 81% to 40%—I see a hike as likely, but far from certain.

For now, I’m keeping my position.

Clarity Act

Lastly, we got an update regarding the Clarity Act. The Trump admin agreed to the ethics provision along with most of the other changes proposed by the Democrats. Now, the ball is in Democrats’ court.

Traders were waiting for that—the market rallied 10 points on the news and stabilized around 30%. Any bullish news from the blue camp is bound to push it towards 50; a successful cloture vote will send it into the 80s.

I remain bullish on the Clarity Act passing and still hold my 7.8k Yes shares.

The Americas

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro is now the favorite to win the Brazilian presidential election. A few weeks after I flagged his rise (along with a couple of reasons to be bullish on him), the first polls that put him as the run-off leader dropped:

Depending on the schedule, I might have something interesting for you on the election that I’ve been working on.

Asia

No news from Asia-related prediction markets.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran War

The big news from the Middle East comes from Saudi Arabia. The Houthis and some Iraqi militias hit the East-West pipeline. As a result, it is completely shut and traders see only a 56% chance it restarts by the end of the month:

At the same time, the sentiment on peace is at an all-time low:

The only nugget of hope, the Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement meeting scheduled for today, was postponed indefinitely:

However, there seems to be growing pressure to end the war. The East-West pipeline is down. The tanker war in the Strait of Hormuz continues—both WTI and Brent are now above $100 per barrel while US diesel breached $6.20 per gallon:

And rumor has it that Saudi Arabia pushed to postpone the meeting on Hormuz:

I wouldn’t be surprised if MBS were trying to pressure Trump this way. His risk tolerance might be too low to fight the Houthis again.

On the other side of the region, a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon in Rome was postponed to October:

The diplomats are still due to meet in New York this month as part of the UN meeting, but it is unlikely they will hold long, focused sessions.

The Houthis

In Yemen, the Houthis advanced and took over the land directly adjacent to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Saudi-backed forces that held it for the last eight years or so completely disintegrated. Traders saw it as a sign that from now on, the Houthis can block the strait more easily, worth a 4-point premium on the market.

Europe

The Ukraine War

The biggest news from the Ukraine war last week comes from just across the Polish border. A Russian drone struck a passenger train near Yahodyn, 2km from Poland, while Boris Johnson and David Petraeus were in the area.

It is the next big provocation from Russia, days after Kushner and Witkoff visited Moscow.

It is clear by now that no peace will happen soon:

In fact, a NATO-Russia military clash is more likely (and I agree with the market):

Sweden

The Swedish Social Democratic Party won an extremely close election. The votes are still being counted, but at this point there’s no chance the overall result changes.

It is the first election first time the far right lost ground since 2010. Sweden, once a country with very lax immigration policies, became one of the hardest European countries to get into after a public backlash over immigration. The new government can relax the rules a bit, but no one expects a full return to the previous regime.

Other

AI

In AI, we saw a lot of trading on the Best AI model market. Initially, traders saw a chance Astra could overtake Fable on the LMArena text leaderboard, but those hopes were quickly dashed.

However, Astra, or rather OpenAI, is pretty good at solving Millennium problems:

Traders expect another one to be solved by the end of the year (Navier-Stokes was solved just last week).

Lastly, I saw a strange move on the “Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?” market:

I’m not sure there was any news that pushed the price, but sometimes these are insiders getting in early.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! The delayed Forecast Update will come out before the FOMC. Additionally, I might do a post-vote update on the Clarity Act.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! For the new readers: every week I comment on the top prediction markets—selected by volume, volatility and surprising resolutions—across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science. Markets first, news through their lens, not the other way around.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Midterms

The biggest news this week on the midterms comes from Missouri. The Supreme Court of Missouri ruled that the new congressional map is not valid and that the voters should decide in November whether to introduce it.

The MO-05 seat winner depended almost entirely on the shape of the map—with the decision the seat flipped from an 84% chance to be Republican to an 80% chance to be Democrat, even after the state AG directed the case to the SCOTUS.

A Democratic sweep is now the base case, at 52% with less than two months to go. But it’s hardly because of the congressional map—Republicans are hurting mostly because of the downstream effects of Trump’s choices during the last year. Ultimately, the price at the pump and the frustration of every grocery bill are what pushed people away from the administration.

At the same time, Trump is preventing the Republican candidates from distancing themselves from him. The upcoming midterms convention in Dallas, the first of its kind, centralizes support (or lack thereof), further complicating the situation for swing state nominees.

If the GOP wants to fight for the Senate and prevent a Blue wave, the convention needs to be a new beginning rather than a victory lap. Let’s see if Trump manages to surprise us. For now, I don’t see the convention becoming a material advantage.

The Fed

In the middle of the political discourse is the Fed. With the upcoming midterms and the ongoing Iran war, its rate decision is one of the most important in recent years. Everyone knows that a hike immediately before an election hurts the ruling party. But underneath there’s an even bigger issue to understand.

We are in a major supply shock thanks to the Iran war. Decreased supply of raw materials causes shortages in poorer economies and inflation in developed ones as they need to pay more to secure deliveries (or, in other words: developed economies outbid the poorer ones for essential supplies). Unlike demand shocks, which can be directly mitigated by monetary policy, supply shocks cannot be solved by printing dollars. The only thing monetary policy can do in the face of a persistent, structural supply shock is to raise interest rates to destroy demand.

Higher interest rates curb spending and help control shortage-induced inflation. Demand destruction is essentially a fancy name for inducing a controlled recession (or at least deceleration in growth). So far the Fed has refused to hike. Inflation has been manageable, and there were hopes the Iran war could end soon.

The Fed’s decision to hike now would mean that it coordinated with the Trump admin and made a conscious decision to start destroying demand across the economy. It doesn’t look like we are anywhere close to that point with the midterms two months away and still some time to change course.

The Americas

Brazil Presidential Election

During the week, Flavio Bolsonaro’s chances of winning the election stabilized around 40%, with Lula in the 55–57% range. Recent polling puts both neck and neck:

Polling numbers resemble the 2024 US Presidential election, where Kamala Harris held a slight lead in the weeks leading up to the election. From my point of view, the polls are within the margin of error. Intuition says Bolsonaro, but I don’t have a proper analysis yet—I may do a deep dive in the coming weeks.

Asia

China

In Asia, SCMP reported that China is stepping up its preparations to blockade Taiwan. The markets on the China x Taiwan invasion or clash, however, are flat.

Blockading or invading Taiwan is the riskiest and most expensive option for reunification. Ultimately, traders believe that a death by a thousand cuts is the strategy and blockade options are being prepared as a threat.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran War

The Iran war is stable, as far as wars go. Last week’s developments can be summarized as “tanker wars”—both sides are now targeting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Since Iran implicitly agreed that Hezbollah alone needs to deal with Israel in Lebanon, the focus has been on materials flow.

Iran needs to force America into concessions by imposing unbearable costs on the global economy, while the US needs to sustain the flow to extend its runway:

As a result, sentiment is at its lowest level ever:

At the same time, the cracks in the global economy are becoming more apparent by the day:

For now, Trump thinks he can end the war in Ukraine and unlock Russian raw materials. Pretty soon, he will find out how wrong he is and scramble for either a hasty deal with Iran or… export controls. I believe the topic of the Iran war will be crucial in the next two months, especially since the “tanker war” only makes the structural damage to the economy worse.

I have a long-running thesis on the Iran war and positions built around it, and I believe that the markets are severely underpricing the possibility of a deal now. You can read the latest update to my thesis here, along with my assessment of the Ukraine war and my view on the upcoming Fed decision:

The Houthis

On the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, the chance the Houthis close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait rose sharply on news of the Houthis fighting to reclaim land adjacent to the strait. Traders see it as a move to reassert control of that land. It will give them more control of the waterway, thus making their threat of closure more credible.

I still see the cost of a total blockade as too high, but my fair value has increased slightly as well.

Israel

Israel itself is now focused on the upcoming Knesset election. After last week, Eisenkot stabilized at a 50% chance to be the next prime minister, while Netanyahu is at 30%. Polling is still extremely close, with neither sure of a majority:

I will be watching how the Iran war developments impact the election, especially if Trump goes for a hasty deal.

A tricky Israel market also revealed itself this week:

Turns out, Israel routinely closes its airspace on Yom Kippur, which is enough to satisfy the rules—the market repriced from 9c to 78c once traders realized their mistake.

Europe

The Ukraine War

Kushner and Witkoff traveled to Moscow and Kyiv during the weekend to meet with Putin and Zelensky in an effort to make peace. Talks were described as “very meaningful”; rumors have it that the envoys discussed post-war cooperation with Russia.

Since Trump is desperate for a win, the vagueness signals a lack of progress. Chances for a short-term ceasefire are only slightly up, while a long-term armistice is even less likely than before the meetings:

Trump’s effort to end the war, instead of focusing on Iran, was doomed to fail from the start. August marked the month Russia intensified provocations against European nations:

It was also the month rumors of a new mobilization in Russia hit the tape.

I’m extremely bearish on a peace deal in Ukraine, with my fair value below 5% this year.

Germany

AfD won 39 out of 83 seats in the Sachsen-Anhalt election. While traders expected AfD to win, they didn’t see such an outperformance:

AfD fell just three seats short of an outright majority—the closest a far-right party has come to governing alone in a German state since WWII.

Other

AI

Lastly, AI. Two new frontier models dropped this week—Anthropic updated Fable, and OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra, the first in a new series.

After a period of total dominance by Anthropic, OpenAI is once again challenging the leader when it comes to benchmarks—traders now give a 15% chance OpenAI will have the best AI model this month, up from 3% just days ago.

Did you have a chance to test Astra? Do you think it’s materially better than Fable? Let me know in the comments.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! The schedule for the week is TBD, outside of the usual commentary.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

I’m reviving this series as a forecast update on the global events I cover. While deep dives are great for introducing a new thesis, they are not optimal for updating—often I needed to repeat large parts of a thesis in each update as deep dives are standalone content and always require context. Now, I will be able to update you on a rolling basis and build up my theses step by step.

Today I’ll focus on the Iran and Ukraine war developments and the latest on the Fed decision in September. The last Forecast Update is here for context:

Iran

The most recent deep dive on Iran:

And a small update:

The Iran peace markets are at their lowest level ever and so are the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization markets:

Oil markets are near 2026 highs as well:

Sentiment is as bearish as it gets:

1. We’ve seen another round of kinetic strikes.

2. There’s no peace narrative circulating.

3. Trump is reportedly mulling exiting the war.

4. Diesel cracks are at record highs.

And the situation seems to be in a strange equilibrium—diplomats are still engaging (Qatari and Pakistani trips most notable in recent days) while any kinetic attacks are rather limited in scope and duration. We are still playing the game of chicken. For the next two months, however, Iran holds the upper hand.

Since neither side will invade anything, we are analyzing runways, supply chains and domestic politics, rather than military capability. Here, there’s a striking (pun intended) asymmetry:

• Iran already feels all the pain it can. Exports are effectively blocked, so it has limited access to foreign currency. Industrial capacity is decimated and shortages of basic goods are pushing inflation higher. Coups and revolts have historically needed much less to spark. That being said, Iran’s runway is still measured in months, even years—IRGC seems to be in full control of the political apparatus, the economy and Artesh itself. And Iranians are like the Soviets: they are used to shortages.

  

• The US, and the rest of the world, on the other hand, has yet to feel the real pain. Diesel, jet fuel, LNG, sulfur, helium and many other commodities are near or at ATHs. Fertilizer is scarce and will impact food supply next year and beyond. The SPR is at its lowest level since 1982, when it was being filled. Everything is strained, but nothing has broken yet.

Trump faces difficult midterms with the global economy strained to the limit. While Americans will hardly starve, they will feel the pain in prices. And in potential wars all around the world if we really hit the wall at full speed.

What I see happening next:

Read more

Welcome to another week! For the new readers: every week I comment on the top prediction markets—selected by volume, volatility and surprising resolutions—across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science. Markets first, news through their lens, not the other way around.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Midterms

Over last week we saw a Democratic sweep become the clear favorite on the Balance of Power market, breaching the 50% threshold. The Senate market is still priced at a coin flip, though—if a full sweep costs the same as the Senate alone, traders have the House at near-certainty.

Prediction markets are slowly converging with Nate Silver’s FLIPR model, which has shown a slight Dem advantage since its inception:

The trend is also visible on Adjacent’s SENR Index, which is down on the week:

At 100.62 points, it shows that individual Senate race markets are aligned with the wider view.

The Fed

Jackson Hole. I expected Warsh to be vague, but he decided to tease a hike instead. However, after his introduction, he was much more balanced. His comments around inflation were no different from what he presented during the last two FOMC press conferences.

Warsh may try to abandon forward guidance, but he cannot escape the fact that every communication out of the central bank is treated as monetary policy. There’s more to policy than the interest rate—holding rates stable with a hawkish outlook produces a different market reaction than a purely balanced outlook or a dovish suggestion.

In my opinion, the market reacted rather sharply to a speech that introduced no surprises—I accumulated some No hike shares during the repricing.

The Americas

Brazil Presidential Election

Flavio Bolsonaro is getting closer to Lula with every poll:

And the raw numbers understate it: AtlasIntel’s +10 came from an online panel that forced undecideds to commit, while Quaest and Datafolha still carry 10-14% unallocated. I expected this election to get more volatile as we approach September, but I didn’t see Bolsonaro gaining so much ground in just two weeks.

For now I’m on the sidelines, but it might change in the coming days.

US-Canada

In the north, this week was dominated by Trump’s pettiness. He renamed Lake Ontario by an executive order and Google Maps quickly obliged.

I may not like it, but this is something that plays very well with his base, something he needed very much since the Iran war cost him a lot of trust with MAGA.

Asia

No interesting markets to report.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran War

Bessent’s economic D-Day announcement made little waves and amounted to nothing substantial. The week was quiet up until last night, when America struck southern Iran to eliminate launchers. Iran retaliated, sending missiles over the Gulf States and Jordan.

As with recent kinetic action, Israel neither participated nor was it the target:

This is the first US strike since July 29, 33 days ago. A return to hostilities bid up the US invasion market, but it’s still a remote possibility:

However, the action did impact some of the long-term markets. Both the US blockade market and the SOH traffic normalization market dipped:

Long-term peace talks markets took a bit less pain, but they are still down:

Overall, the developments in the last two weeks are hardly optimistic. But at the same time, they are barely hawkish… We’ve been in a somewhat neutral state, which begs to be disrupted by the coming midterms.

I have high hopes for developments in the next 10 days—if I don’t see signs of progress, I’ll reassess my thesis.

The Houthis

On the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, the Houthi blockade market is flat despite major volume.

It’s probably the most retail-heavy market at the moment—price clearly favors going on the No side, while the Yes side enjoys all the retail flow thanks to constant tensions.

Israel

Israel is a bit on the sidelines when it comes to the recent escalations. It seems to be busy with the coming Knesset election. We’ve seen Netanyahu close some of the gap to Eizenkot, but overall, the latter is still a clear favorite to win.

It’s all because Ofer Winter announced his entry into the race. The ex-IDF brigadier is diluting the right-wing vote, reducing the overall chance of anyone having a majority.

Europe

The Ukraine War

The Ukraine war is the one escalating the most right now. The CIA director’s visit to Moscow sparked a lot of drama on the old continent and many expect an imminent escalation. Some even expect a NATO-Russia clash.

However, I doubt anything will happen pre-Duma election:

With a month out, there’s plenty of time to collect signals and prepare a forecast—I’m planning a deep dive for the second half of October!

Iceland

Outside of wars, Iceland held a referendum on resuming the EU talks. Traders gave a slight advantage to the Yes side, which ultimately lost—Icelanders voted 52 to 48 against resuming the talks.

Other

AI

In AI, the two top markets are about Anthropic. The former, on the best AI model this month, is all but decided. The latter, on the release of the next Mythos-class model, is a toss-up:

Traders expect a release as soon as today—I do hope that Claude-speak is fixed in the update.

Business

Lastly, some news from business. The market on PayPal being acquired by Stripe fell to bond territory after reports that the deal fell through. M&A markets tend to behave like biotech stocks—a high entry barrier due to information complexity and scarcity combined with wild swings.

I need to engage more in these markets—my history with them is rather good.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I don’t have a deep dive in mind for this week. Instead, I’ll publish a forecast update towards the end of the week to capture all the developments in the running forecasts.

Additionally, I’m doing a slight adjustment to the videos—they’ll come out on Fridays and have more insight about market moves throughout the week.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Fed markets have never really been exciting. For eight years we had Powell at the helm and he was like a rock—stable, unmoved and… boring. His approach was one of stability and communication. Dot plots, forward guidance, Nick Timiraos as Fed whisperer; generally, the post-GFC regime focused on stability above all.

That changed in 2022. Before the Ukraine war the global economy was rather stable, bar COVID—and the pandemic was a demand shock, something the Fed is well equipped to manage through rates. Supply shocks are a different beast. The Fed cannot print oil. Worse, the stable, data-driven approach forced Powell to offer continuous guidance on inflation over which he had little to no influence. Cornered, the previous chairman did the only thing he could—he kicked the can down the road and called inflation transitory.

Warsh’s Fed saw that. He dropped guidance, declined to submit his own dot, and is intentionally vague in his speeches.

Jackson Hole

If you think that Jackson Hole will be any different, think again. The theme of the symposium is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy”. The theme itself gives Warsh the ultimate cover—chances are he won’t mention the monetary policy path at all.

Instead, he can freely talk about AI, stablecoins and his task forces (the bolded three are what I expect him to spend the speech on):

• Communications: Mervyn King, Arminio Fraga, Peter Fisher—legitimizing the end of the dot plot and forward guidance.

• Balance sheet: Rajan, Stein, Dynan—Warsh’s own smaller-balance-sheet view outsourced to people with academic cover.

• Data: Doug McMillon, Raj Chetty, Kevin Murphy—providing cover for bad economic data by suggesting that there’s a need for better, private-market sources.

• Productivity and jobs: Marc Andreessen, Chad Jones, Asha Sharma—AI’s impact on productive capacity and monetary policy. This is the doctrinal home of “the economy can run hot without inflation.”

• Inflation frameworks: Greg Mankiw, Thomas Sargent, William White—working out a new approach to modeling inflation.

I will be surprised if the speech moves the September hold odds by more than 10 points in either direction. Especially after the two FOMC press conferences we’ve seen, both refusing to provide any guidance and forcing the market to decide itself. The task forces provide an additional cover—Warsh can claim that inflation is a non-issue and that data is not reliable.

So what is the answer to September, if it’s not Jackson Hole?

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The Rate

If Warsh is not the one to give us guidance, we need to guide ourselves. Luckily, we have plenty of tells in what the Fed and the Treasury do.

The naive read of the current regime is that they want the market to tell them what to do. Both previous meetings resulted in higher long-term yields and a pure read would indicate that it’s high time for a hike. But we are nowhere near pure.

We are in an energy supply shock and there’s only one way to fix it—partially destroy demand and either wait for the crisis to resolve or build more capacity in the meantime. In our specific case building more capacity is easier said than done. Especially if the Strait of Hormuz opens—then, we would enter oversupply, pushing new projects towards bankruptcy. Additionally, America is directly involved in causing the supply shock.

What is rather happening is a deliberate policy choice—keeping the government borrowing cost relatively low and letting the long end bear the cost of the shock.

The tells are already there: the Fed cut its bill purchases to zero on August 14, Treasury froze coupon sizes and pushes every marginal dollar through bills, and the 2-year hasn’t moved while the 30-year made a twenty-year high. But can the board support it?

The Votes

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Welcome to another week! For the new readers: every week I comment on the top prediction markets—selected by volume, volatility and surprising resolutions—across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science. Markets first, news through their lens, not the other way around.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Midterms

The midterms are less than three months out and traders increasingly focus on the main election markets, rather than primaries. Here, a persistent D advantage in the generic ballot polling average is keeping a Democratic sweep as the base case:

Ever since the beginning of August, Republican chances have been steadily decreasing on the main market. This is aligned with reports that Jared Kushner met with Hakeem Jeffries to discuss WH-Congress cooperation post-midterms.

However, Adjacent’s SENR Index, based on a basket of individual Senate races, is still showing a slight Republican advantage:

While the discrepancy is small (the main Senate market is exactly at 50/50), the index might be providing a real alpha.

In the primaries, the most popular market is still the SC Republican Senate Special Primary Winner:

Darline Graham is down from the peak of a 92% chance of getting the nomination to 69%. The move down was fueled by a rather weak debate performance and incoming polls that show her advantage dwindling.

The slight increase in the last two days happened on the back of a Trump rally in support of Darline.

2028 Presidential Election

The last two weeks saw a major repricing on the Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 market. AOC solidified her lead and traders now give her a 23% chance of getting the nomination.

Additionally, Jon Ossoff is emerging as a strong contender. He is currently tied with Gavin Newsom at a 15% chance of getting the nomination—the latter was a strong favorite to win only a month ago!

Ossoff’s chances are rising due to recent polls showing him as more likely than Newsom to beat any Republican contender.

On the Republican side we see no changes:

JD Vance is still the favorite to get the nomination.

The Fed

It is an important week for the finance world—the Fed officials will gather at Jackson Hole to discuss policy. The market on the September decision is flat ahead of Kevin Warsh’s speech.

Traders expect the Fed to hold rates on the upcoming meeting. However, there’s still a 56% chance of a hike this year, and only a 14% chance of a cut:

The consensus among analysts now is that a hike becomes most probable only after the midterms.

The Americas

Brazil Presidential Election

We are entering a crucial period in the Brazil Presidential Election. In the last five weeks, Flavio Bolsonaro has cut Lula’s lead by half and some polls show a statistical tie between the two in the run-off.

Polymarket still gives Lula a significant advantage (63% vs 33%). However, Bolsonaro’s chances rose by 10 points in the last month, in line with the recent polling.

We have two months until the run-off and if Bolsonaro is able to sustain the trend, we will have an extremely tense election night.

Canada Trade Deal

Last week saw trade talks between the US and Canada collapse. While it was a separate discussion from the USMCA, it shows two things:

1. How unrealistic the extension of the broad USMCA agreement is, if a smaller discussion faced so many hurdles.

2. How pathetic the state of US-Canada relations is.

Traders priced in both things and now give only a 13% chance the wider agreement is extended this year.

Why did the deal fall apart after Trump’s announcement that it was finalized? Reporting suggests that America introduced a series of changes that were unacceptable to Canada—it looks like Trump is firing up a trade war ahead of the midterms. Maybe he thinks it will help to lift his approval rating from the absolute gutter:

Asia

South Korea

South Korea is now expected to raise rates this Thursday. The market was initially split—then traders started pricing in an upward revision of annual GDP growth on the back of the semiconductor export boom. The inflation forecast is expected to move the same direction, and the market now heavily favors a hike.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran War

Today, Scott Bessent is expected to announce the most striking sanctions package on Iran in what is dubbed the single greatest economic offensive against a country.

Iran threatened severe retaliation, including an implicit suggestion of kinetic strikes:

That being said, traders see little chance the ceasefire between Iran and the US or Israel will be broken:

Same can be said about putting boots on the ground—Trump’s mention of the military defending bond yields had little impact on the chance of a US invasion of Iran:

Traders seem to heavily discount the severity of the operation and the subsequent Iranian response.

Instead, rumors of a potential revival of the MoU framework pushed the market on the end of the US blockade of Iran up:

Long-term Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization markets also saw an uptick on the hopes of a diplomatic push:

And so did the market on the US-Iran peace talks:

The economic warfare narrative is treated mostly as noise—after all, there’s little more the US can sanction (and effectively enforce). At the same time, peace signals were rather soft—most markets have been flat for the last few days, as if waiting for a worthy signal.

The Houthis

The Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have quieted down this week. However, tensions are still high and traders keep the market forecast on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure flat.

Israel

Lastly, Netanyahu’s chances of staying prime minister of Israel are sliding. Each new poll shows Likud losing support in favor of Gadi Eisenkot.

Netanyahu’s problems are structural—Israelis disapprove of his handling of the war and I don’t believe he can change their perception anytime soon. I do have a small No position on him, but I also do know that Israeli politics can be volatile.

Europe

The Ukraine War

The Ukraine war is escalating. Last week we saw several drone incursions, as well as a curious 3-day NATO exercise around Kaliningrad:

One of the drone incidents caused the NATO-Russia military clash market to spike. However, it was ruled that the incident was outside of the market rules.

At the same time, Ukraine continues to strike further into Russian territory and it expanded its civilian targets to other e-commerce warehouses:

I still expect Russia to escalate after the Duma elections:

Putin cannot allow Ukraine to continue the strike campaign unpunished. Mounting losses are forcing his hand and I expect to see some kind of a breakthrough by the end of the winter.

Other

AI

We are nearing the end of August and Anthropic still absolutely dominates the leaderboard. Even the recent wave of Claude hate on X didn’t change the simple fact that Fable is an exceptional model.

Anthropic is looking to ride the Mythos-Fable wave to the IPO, where it aims to beat SpaceX:

Traders now give a 47% chance Anthropic will breach a $2.5 trillion valuation by the end of the year.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’m working on my Fed deep dive and I’m planning to publish it by Friday.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

I’m reviving this series as a forecast update on the global events I cover. While deep dives are great for introducing a new thesis, they are not optimal for updating—often I needed to repeat large parts of a thesis in each update as deep dives are standalone content and always require context. Now, I will be able to update you on a rolling basis and build up my theses step by step.

Today I’ll focus on the Iran war and its chances of ending. The Clarity Act and Ukraine forecasts remain stable. Look at my latest update to get up to speed:

Iran

The most recent deep dive on Iran:

And a small update:

Read more

Welcome to another week! I’m introducing a new format for the Global Outlook. From now on prediction markets will be at the center of this series. Each week I will comment on a selection of top prediction markets based on volume, volatility and surprising resolutions across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science.

This way I’ll be able to focus on interpreting the change in market forecast, rather than judging the news through a market lens.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Midterms

Darline Graham Nordone advanced to the run-off in the SC Republican Senate Special Primary. She got 33% of the vote, 17 percentage points short of an outright majority needed to get the nomination in the first round. She will now face Ralph Norman, who finished the first round with 24%.

Despite the run-off, traders now feel more confident than ever that the late Lindsey Graham’s sister will take the nomination. Initially, they were worried that the Trump endorsement wouldn’t be enough against a rather wide field. Now, the 9-point lead proves all the worries were unnecessary—my FV assessment is even slightly above the market.

In the wider midterms forecast, we have two conflicting information sources. Adjacent’s SENR index, which currently has the 2026 and 2028 Senate races in its basket, shows a slight Republican advantage:

In the meantime, Nate Silver’s generic-ballot model shows a massive Democratic advantage:

This is an interesting divergence—last week I mentioned how FLIPR’s release impacted prediction markets. The very markets that feed into the SENR index. I believe that it shows that Nate Silver, after a rather unimpressive performance in the previous elections, is no longer fully trusted—the market put a discount on his forecast.

2028 Presidential Election

We still have almost three months until the midterms, but the media already focus on the 2028 presidential election. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez became the favorite to win the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nomination. Her rise—from a 14% chance a month ago to a 21% chance today—is fueled by rumors that she ended her relationship with her longtime fiancé. She also reportedly froze her eggs.

What does a personal relationship have to do with a presidential run? Traders believe that she is preparing for a run—freezing her eggs and splitting from a longtime partner is a strategic move if you think you will be too busy for a serious relationship (or kids) in the next few years. Additionally, the progressive wing of the Democratic Party continues to dominate the primaries.

Interestingly, Kalshi still shows Gavin Newsom as the favorite.

While AOC surged on the Democratic Nominee Market, JD Vance is widening his lead with a 47% chance to get the nomination:

Recently, Trump mentioned that in the end, it has to be JD.

The Fed

Moving to the economy, Polymarket now sees only a 25% chance of a hike in September. Additionally, a hike is no longer likely this year—traders give only a 47% chance of one by the end of the year, down from 78% barely a month ago:

All fueled by this week’s economic data dump—a relatively soft CPI print, high initial jobless claims and a disastrous retail sales report. Traders see two things playing out: first, the recent data dump suggests that the consumer is getting squeezed enough with rates at their current level; second, the midterms are coming and Republicans would do anything to prevent a hike just before the election.

The Fed cut market completes the picture: despite weak labor and consumer data, traders see only a 15% chance of a cut this year:

The Americas

Brazil Presidential Election

In the Americas, the Brazil Presidential Election is the most important upcoming event. The market continues to attract massive volume, totaling almost $4 million in the last week alone. Despite its popularity, the market is relatively flat—Lula is up 2 percentage points on the week while Flavio Bolsonaro went up by 3 percentage points. Other candidates took a hit as voters converge on the top two choices.

Flavio has been on a gradual rise for over a month now. Recently, he’s been tightening the gap and fresh polls put him within the margin of error of Lula. With the intensive part of the campaign starting soon we can expect more volatility on the market.

The first round will take place on the 4th of October and the second round will be held on the 25th of October.

Asia

Indonesia

Moving to the Eastern Hemisphere, an M7.7 earthquake hit Indonesia, followed by another M6.9 quake only a day later. At least 53 people are dead, with many more missing.

It is not a shocking development, however, as Indonesia is prone to frequent earthquakes, along with Japan, Chile and the Philippines—all four were equally likely to get the first M6.0+ quake.

Japan

In finance, traders moved their BoJ rate decision forecast and now see a 72% chance of a hike. The adjustment is caused by a weak yen performance this year combined with rising inflation. However, a slowdown in GDP growth prevented the forecast from going above an 80% chance of a hike.

The next meeting is scheduled for September 17-18.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran War

Now, the most important event—the Iran war. Last week passed with no big news hitting the headlines. We saw Axios report that America has a backchannel with the IRGC as well as signs of possible in-person talks in the UAE:

However, with no tangible progress, the chances of a final nuclear deal are going down—traders put a final deal at just 3% by the end of September and at 18% by the end of the year.

That being said, a return to wider hostilities is unlikely:

The Israel-Iran ceasefire-break market sits at 24% for the end-of-September expiry. It doesn’t mean that ships won’t continue to be struck, though.

Especially since the hopes for the Iran–Oman Hormuz Management Agreement are faltering:

Traders still see a 60% chance of one by the end of September, but even then they have several reservations. First of all, they see only a 40% chance of the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade in the same timeframe:

As if that weren’t enough, they give an 11% chance—the No side is knocking on bond territory—that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of September:

What does it mean? Well, traders learn—the last few deals meant to open up the strait fell short of expectations, with neither delivering a sustained surge in crossings. Ultimately, signing papers is easy; delivering results is not.

The US crude oil reserves market is aligned with the SOH-related markets. Traders see a 63% chance the SPR will fall below 285 million barrels of oil by the end of the month:

The last reported level is slightly above 298.5 million barrels of oil—but with no progress around the strait the oil must come from somewhere…

To top it all off, Iran and America are not expected to meet anytime soon:

Traders now give only a 31% chance of a meeting between the two countries by the end of September. A lack of an in-person meeting didn’t stop the MoU from being finalized, though. Chances are we will see progress regardless.

This week the 60-day MoU deadline is ending. While traders see little chance of the deadline being extended, this week should bring some news on the back of the expiring truce:

The Houthis

On the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, the Houthis maintain pressure on Saudi Arabia. Traffic is down, but the blockade is well short of a total shutdown. Traders give only a 20% chance of an effective shutdown (less than 10 crossings a day for 7 days) by the end of the year.

I think traders are overestimating here—my fair value for the end-of-year market is 10%.

Ethiopia

In Africa, an Ethiopian election that took place months ago drew the most volume of any election market last week. I suspect a lot of wash trading—the market lacks liquidity rewards and the situation is stable. Abiy Ahmed’s party won, and the only risk is that he changes the constitution and introduces a presidential system instead of taking the PM seat (yes, really).

I doubt this outlier scenario is the reason for such high volume considering that the price is stable.

Europe

The Ukraine War

The Ukraine war is escalating at a breakneck pace. Ukraine vastly improved its drone and missile production capabilities and launched a strike campaign. At first, it focused on oil infrastructure. Then, it expanded and started targeting infrastructure near major cities like Moscow. Recently, Ukraine has targeted several Wildberries warehouses (Russia’s Amazon), hitting civilian infrastructure for the first time.

Russia is not going to be passive. We are seeing rumors of mobilization along with increased drone and missile incidents on the NATO eastern flank:

In the last three weeks alone we had at least 5 incursions, including a cruise missile that struck eastern Poland:

However, Russia has a parliamentary election on September 20:

We all know what to expect, but I do think that Putin might be waiting to lock in the new government before launching a new phase of the “special military operation”. Recent escalations imply that this winter could be a deciding moment in this war.

Other

AI

Anthropic’s IPO leaks surprised traders forecasting the AI lab’s valuation. The market is now pricing in a 47% chance Anthropic will be worth more than $2.5 trillion by the end of the year.

The creator of Claude is looking for a $2 trillion valuation on its October IPO and traders see it grow with the wider market. Then again, it could just as easily go the SpaceX way—down 13% in the two months since its IPO.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! This week’s schedule is TBD outside of the Friday’s Forecast Update.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

I’m reviving this series as a forecast update on the global events I cover. While deep dives are great for introducing a new thesis, they are not optimal for updating—often I needed to repeat large parts of a thesis in each update as deep dives are standalone content and always require context. Now, I will be able to update you on a rolling basis and build up my theses step by step.

Today I’ll focus on the Iran war and its chances of ending. The Clarity Act and Ukraine forecasts remain stable. Look at my latest update to get up to speed:

Iran

The most recent deep dive on Iran:

And a small update:

Read more

Welcome to the 20th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.

For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.

By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.

Summary

July was calm, finally…:

1. I started July with $22,060 in my portfolio.

2. Today (August 7th) my portfolio stands at $22,372.

3. There were no additional capital injections.

4. Total ROIC is 1.4% for the month and for 4.6% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.

5. All bankroll allocations are on the basis of starting bankroll.

The Good

July was another green month, marking a somewhat official ending of my choppy performance this year. My performance could have been better, but some my new positions repriced:

1. The Clarity Act market was priced mostly on hopes of passing it pre-recess. However, several developments pre-recess moved the timeline without impacting my FV assessment—I hold the position with some loss.

2. The Iran war markets—my thesis is playing out in real time and I fully expect to see big swings in the value of these positions.

Considering that I remained in the green with my two main theses going against me shows me that my work in previous months is paying off.

The Bad

I should have realized Congress can deal with government funding pre-recess and push the Clarity Act to September. However, my overall entry is quite decent and well below my FV assumption.

Other than that, I don’t have any particularly bad comments—July was a slow month and I didn’t trade a lot.

Bankroll Comments

I around 50% of my bankroll available for trading. I’ve been reshuffling my portfolio in the last few days. I expect to have below 30% portfolio available by September.

Wrap Up

That’s all for today. I have a Forecast Update in the works for tomorrow.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.