Recently I take more time to write these and it does me good. It forces me to think more deeply about my positioning and actually search for good alpha. This week my focus was once again on Iran, but also on the global economy and repercussions for the Strait of Hormuz closure.

Iran

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Welcome to another week! While Iran still dominates the media landscape, there is really plenty of stuff happening outside of the Middle East. From another assassination attempt on Trump, to global refinery incidents, to Ukraine war. The world keeps moving on.

Keep up to speed without being embroiled in fake narratives. Subscribe and take a look for yourself as I explain the world through the lenses of prediction markets.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

We had a wild week in the US with yet another assassination attempt and turmoil around the Fed.

There was an assassination attempt during the White House Correspondents Dinner as Cole Allen stormed through the guards at the hotel and sprinted towards the room armed and shooting. He was caught before he was able to harm anyone. His manifesto shows he was targeting Trump admin officials.

Comment: some think it as scripted to push the case for Trump’s White House Ballroom. I think it could have more to do with the current Iran war, or just be a case of someone who had a psychotic episode.

We are amid Kevin Warsh’s confirmation process in the Senate, where he told the Senators he would be strictly independent from the Trump admin. Thom Tillis, a Republican, has threatened to block Mr Warsh’s confirmation unless a probe into Jerome Powell, the current chair, is dropped.

Comment: traders seem confident Warsh will be confirmed as we learned that the DoJ dropped its criminal probe into Jerome Powell.

UPS and FedEx began filing requests for refunds on tariffs after the SCOTUS ruled that some of them were unconstitutional. But some companies, like Apple and Amazon, haven’t filed for refunds yet as Trump promised in an interview that he will remember those who didn’t.

Comment: there is low chance Trump will actually remember anyone as this is just a pressure tactic to salvage the US budget.

The Americas

The Cuba situation remains unresolved as the crisis in the country deepens.

Asia

The energy situation in Asia continues to be dire, but for now, no new measures were introduced.

In Asia, as well as other parts of the world, we had over 45 refineries incidents (fires, explosions, etc.) since the start of the war. In Asia these included:

• HPCL Rajasthan Refinery (Pachpadra/Balotra district, Rajasthan, India) — April 20, 2026: A fire broke out at the Crude Distillation Unit (described as the “heart” of the new ~$8.5 billion greenfield integrated refinery-cum-petrochemical complex, one of India’s first such facilities).

• Myanmar river port fuel facility (Homalin Township, Sagaing Region / Bandar Humalin / Hmawbi area) on April 20–21, 2026: A massive explosion and fire erupted at a river port facility involving fuel tankers, barges, and vessels (many serving as small-scale tankers). At least 2 people were killed and 11+ injured.

• Recycled/waste oil storage facility (Dong Anh District, Hanoi, Vietnam — near Lộc Hà Bridge) on April 25, 2026 (evening): Powerful explosions and a large fire broke out at a storage site holding waste/recycled oil, chemicals, solvents, and flammable materials.

• Pakistani gas pipeline in Hattar Industrial Estate, Haripur district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, northwestern Pakistan on April 16, 2026: A section of a Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) gas supply/transmission pipeline burst, ignited, and exploded, triggering a massive fire with towering flames and thick black smoke. The blaze spread rapidly.

Comment: these incidents are surely connected to the current Iran war.

Japan relaxed restrictions on exports of lethal weapons, departing from pacifist policies introduced after WWII.

Comment: more and more countries see the need to militarize and Japan is the premiere US ally in the region. It is only logical that Japan jumps on that train.

Taiwan’s president Lai Ching-te cancelled a trip to Eswatini because China made it impossible to fly there, pressuring Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles to refuse to allow his plane through their airspace. Eswatini is one of 12 countries that have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. However, the foreign minister managed to go there eventually.

Comment: China’s strategy for Taiwan is a death by a thousand cuts, rather than a costly invasion. this is part of this strategy.

• Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, cancelled a trip to Eswatini because China made travel impossible, his office said. Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles refused to allow his plane through their airspace. Taiwan alleged that they had been coerced by China, including with economic pressure. Eswatini is one of 12 countries that have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which China claims as its own.

Middle East & Africa

The situation in the Middle East continues to be complicated as the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists.

The ceasefire in Iran expired, but Trump unilaterally extended it indefinitely. Iran didn’t reciprocate, but for now no kinetic strikes are happening.

We are in a stalemate as Iran said it is not possible to open the Strait of Hormuz while the US blockade is in place. At the same time, the US is not willing to lift the blockade as long as there is no deal.

Both sides continue to intercept ships, with the US doing interceptions around India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, suggesting that Iran is evading the blockade by running ships in Pakistani territorial waters.

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were supposed to go to Islamabad as Iranian foreign minister does his round trip between Islamabad, Oman and Moscow. However, the Us trip was cancelled at the last minute as there is still no alignment on a deal.

Iran is now proposing a long term ceasefire first, then a discussion on the Strait of Hormuz and only once this issue is resolved, a possible discussion on the nuclear enrichment.

Comment: seems like both sides are waiting for the other to blink first as global supply chains struggle with each day of the Strait of Hormuz double closure. With 2 months in, we are sure to feel dire consequences of the energy supply shock. More of my comments on the situation in my recent portfolio update:

In the meantime, the Lebanon ceasefire is somewhat holding as both sides accuse each other of breaches.

However, Trump managed to secure the ceasefire extension for 3 weeks as he awaits progress in Iran talks, after he hosted Israeli and Lebanese diplomats in the White House.

Comment: if anything, it is a proof that the Hezbollah issue is important for Iran and that Israel is willing to play ball for now, indicating trust in Tump’s actions.

Militants in Mali launched a series of coordinated attacks against towns and cities across the country. They appear to push Russian backed soldiers out of the key positions.

Comment: I’ve repeatedly mentioned that Africa will also be a field in the current cold war between team west and team east.

Europe

Europe is also starting to feel the consequences of the Iran war, while the Ukraine war persists, without prospects of imminent end.

Ukraine has repaired the Druzhba pipeline carrying Russian crude to central Europe. It must make Hungary and Slovakia happy and raises prospects of unlocking the €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine.

Comments: Ukraine would get financing one way or the other. For now, the war must go on. We will see what happens around July, once the main effects of the SOH closure will start to be felt in Europe.

Germany published its first military strategy since the WWII. Germany assumes special responsibility for the EU’s defense as describes Russia as the greatest immediate threat. It aims to be fully ready by 2039, 100 years after the start of WWII.

Comment: one could say that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. But 2039 is way too late for taking special responsibility.

Lufthansa cancelled 20,000 short-haul flights across Europe between May and October, aiming to save 40,000 tonnes of jet fuel.

Comment: slowly, then suddenly.

Wes Streeting, Britain’s helath secretary, hailed the new bill banning anyone born after January 1st 2009 from buying tobacco and putting more restrictions on vapes and marketing.

Comment: New Zealand, that passed similar law in 2022, repealed it 2 years later. Official reason is tax revenue, real reason is the strength of tobacco lobby and people needing to have some fun as New Zealand fights with massive emigration issues.

Norway is looking to ban social media for children under 16 as it joins a dozen European countries that plan to introduce age restrictions.

Comment: slowly, but surely, governments are fighting with anonymity online. These restrictions mean ID verification for social media. If nothing changes, in under 20 years all internet will be accessible only after ID verification.

Viktor Orban said he would not take his seat in parliament once it reconvenes after the recent election. He said “I am now needed not in parliament, but in the reorganization of the patriotic movement”.

Comment: not sure here, maybe he’s finally retiring?

Business, Finance & Economics

AI is still king when it comes to business and financial returns on the markets.

DeepSeek unveiled a preview of its new open source model V4. It is reported to outperform all other open sourced models. It is also the first model adapted for Huawei chips vs Nvidia.

Comment: China is trying to lessen its reliance on western high-tech.

Intel’s shares jumped by 20% after stronger than expected Q1 results and a good forecast of future sales.

Comment: sovereign wealth funds are one of the best investors.

Sony has built an AI-powered robot that can compete against and even defeat elite table tennis players. It was trained using a combo of computer simulations and analyses of expert players.

Comment: while sport is only fun because it is a display of human excellence, the progress in AI powered robotics through sports will translate to industrial use.

S&P500 and NASDAQ closed at ATHs on Friday, despite the continued blockade of the SOH.

Comment: markets will sleepwalk into a deepest recession in the recent history.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. This week I’ll try to focus on Cuba, but since its timing is highly dependent on Iran resolution, it might be delayed again in favor of tracking Iran war.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

I’ve written this article 3 times now, but the effort to get the situation right paid off. It’s all Iran and my current understanding of the situation. It’s been a difficult journey as I don’t like my conclusions, but I’ve accepted that this is where we stand now and nothing can change it.

Iran

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This is probably the most confusing situation in the recent military history. Wars are never easy to analyze, but this one is on track to become the most chaotic conflict in the modern history. Complexity arises due to economic, political and military issues influencing each other simultaneously.

Sparse signals we receive paint a rather stark picture for both sides of the conflict. At the same time, the respective points of view are misaligned, creating an environment in which all sides have clashing perceptions of their incentives and payouts. In this game of levers , pressure points and risks, there is no clear winner.

Current Situation

Current developments, if anything, do confirm that the framework I presented is sound. However, complexity makes any long, or even medium, term forecast uncertain. Short-term outlook is clear, but makes for a difficult trading environment across TradFi and prediction markets.

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Welcome to another week! This one has the potential to be historic as delegations from the US and Iran are due to meet in Islamabad to iron out the last details of a deal. That being said tensions are high and anything can happen in the next 2-5 days.

I have my own thesis on what is going on that you can read here:

But outside of Iran, plenty is happening around the world - from Cuba, to Europe, to Asia; countries continue their business and react to the unfolding situation.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The US is busy with the Iran conflict as its resolution will impact domestic policy and the upcoming midterms.

Scott Bessent said Trump’s tariffs would be restored by July after they were struck down by the SCOTUS ruling in February.

Comment: despite the ruling, some of the tariffs are still in effect and countries are expected to engage with the US to sign new deals. Once the Iran war is resolved, we will hear more about the tariff narrative, especially in connection to the upcoming trip to China.

Trump nominated Erica Schwartz, a former deputy surgeon-general and retired rear admiral, to lead CDC. If confirmed, she would be responsible for tackling the largest measles outbreak in decades.

Comment: before the Iran war took most of my capacity, I was actively tracking the measles markets. Since then the forecast decreased, but thousands of cases is still a lot. Erica is looking at a tough job, especially with anti-vaccine RFK Jr. in charge of the Health Department.

The Americas

While all eyes are on Iran, Trump is already hinting at Cuba being the next target of his military operations.

With Trump’s increasingly combatant rhetoric around Cuba, Brazil, Mexico and Spain issued a joint statement expressing deep concern over the serious humanitarian crisis on the island. They also pledged to send more aid to the blockaded country.

Comment: while it is unclear whether Cuba will clash with the US, or a simple deal will suffice, there are definitely expectations of some kind of a final showdown. Trump is eager to control Cuba, as is Marco Rubio, whose parents escaped the Cuban regime. However, contrary to Iran, this should be a walk in the park for the US.

Spain and Brazil signed 15 agreements covering critical minerals, telecoms and AI during talks of both countries’ leaders.

Comment: Lula is trying his best to build an anti-Trump coalition among LatAm and Spanish / Portuguese speaking countries as he faces a tight presidential race with Jair Bolsonaro’s son later this year. It will be one of the most consequential elections this year.

Asia

While there were no new restriction announced in Asia last week, the continent still grapples with the unfolding energy crisis.

India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party failed to pass a constitutional amendment that would have increased women’s representation in parliament and expanded its lower house from 543 seats to about 850. The legislation would have reserved a third of the seats in the enlarged chamber for women. The opposition accused the party of trying to redraw the electoral map in its favor.

Comment: I’m not well-versed in Indian politics so no proper comment here.

North Korea fired several ballistic missiles into its eastern waters. It’s the fourth time this month.

Comment: North Korea is making sure the US remembers it is a constant threat to its posture in East Asia. Small, but effective provocations to keep the US forces stretched.

Middle East & Africa

Here is where the main action is taking place.

Last week, the US blockade of Iranian ports took effect as Trump is looking to pressure IRGC into concessions.

Over the week, talks were teased, but till now all we have is a one sided announcement from the US on its delegation arriving in Islamabad today. Iranians are yet to officially confirm their attendance.

The Strait of Hormuz was announced to be opened briefly, only to be closed minutes later as the internal conflict in Iranian leadership shows itself to the world. Despite the Lebanon ceasefire in place, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in response to the US blockade. Some ships were under fire from both sides, including an Iranian and Chinese tanker, as well as a container ship.

Trump also repeatedly touted progress in talks, indicating that minor excursions are part of the negotiation, rather than a deliberate escalation aimed at resuming the hostilities.

Comment: I’ve already described my thinking in the weekly portfolio update linked at the top of the article. I think the next 2-5 days are critical, with current developments indicating intense negotiations, rather than a breakdown of talks.

A 10 day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced with Trump inviting both countries’ leaders to the White House for talks on permanent cessation of hostilities. Both sides welcomed the truce, but Netanyahu said IDF will remain ready at Lebanon’s southern border.

Trump also urged Hezbollah to restrain itself, while its leaders responded with a message aiming to restrain Israel. Later on, Trump prohibited Israel from launching attacks on Lebanon in one of his many Truth Social posts.

Comment: despite the effort, chances of Hezbollah disarmament remain low. Since this is a non-negotiable demand from Israel ,I’m curious to see how the matter can resolve beyond a short pause…

Europe

Events in Europe revolved mostly around the new Hungarian prime minister.

Peter Magyar, the new Hungarian prime minister, pledged closer ties with the EU and promised to unblock the €90bn loan to Ukraine in his first speech. He also promised to resolve the Druzhba pipeline dispute with Ukraine, hoping the country can repair it soon.

Comment: with ceasefire proving to be a remote possibility, Ukraine is in dire need of the loan to continue its effort. When it comes to Magyar, some voices are too hopeful as he is a former long-term Fidesz member that broke ties with the Orban’s party after his wife was sacked from her judicial high post.

Contrary to developments in Hungary, Bulgaria looks set to elect a Russia-friendly government.

Comment: early results indicate the pro-Russian Rumen Radev will lead Bulgaria, sustaining opposition to Ukraine war funding after Orban’s defeat.

Peter Mandelson failed background security checks before he became the ambassador to America. Mandelson was sacked late last year due to his connections to Jeffrey Epstein.

Comment: with the news out, chances of Starmer not being prime minister increased again as his government is grappling with various issues.

Business, Finance & Economics

Not a lot of news in the realm of business.

Blue Origin launched a rocket with a reused booster for the first time.

Comment: Jeff Bezos is trying to compete with Elon Musk and SpaceX, but for now he is months, or even years, behind. That being said, the gap is narrower than a few years ago, when Bezos was only starting his space exploration venture.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. I will be watching the next round of Iran negotiations closely and I expect to do a commentary video tomorrow evening on the progress. Outside of that, a deep dive on Cuba is due, especially if we get a quick peace deal in the Middle East.

The pace of developments this year is staggering and the resulting chaos is proving to be a difficult forecasting environment. That being said, after close to 4 months of 2026, a clearer picture of the US modus operandi starts to emerge for me.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

We are entering the weekend with massive developments unfolding on Iran war. While there are almost no details, there is a lot we can derive from recent action. With a proper framework at hand, the situation becomes much more clearer.

Trading journal style as usual, enjoy my thoughts and assessment coming into the weekend, when usually the situation develops fast.

Iran

I’ve shared a teaser post today:

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I was definitely shocked when I woke up to ceasefire news on Wednesday morning. I really didn’t think Trump has it in himself, but here we are. And since it happened, there is a chance for an actual peace deal. We are 5 days into 2-week ceasefire and plenty can happen, including multiple negotiation rounds and even ceasefire extension.

For now we await market open and the news it will bring. And besides Iran war, there is plenty happening around the world. Only here you will get news put against prediction markets with commentary.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

It’s been an interesting week in the US.

Trump went against NATO following a meeting with Mark Rutte in Washington. Trump accused NATO of not being there for America when it needed them and threatened to leave the alliance again.

Comment: Trump might be seething, but NATO is essential to the US as it props up the military industrial complex through regular orders and allows the US to dictate foreign policy of its members. Even with recent comments traders give only 13% chance Trump leaves NATO.

The Democratic Republic of Congo reached an agreement with the Trump administration to receive migrants deported from America. The first people will arrive this month, including citizens of third countries.

Comment: these measures do little to alleviate the migrant problem in the US. The projected numbers of deportees stayed flat on the news, indicating that there are bigger problems than destination countries when it comes to deportations.

Artemis II mission ended safely with all astronauts returning healthy. NASA is planing further lunar missions, including the construction of a Moon base. Trump is also looking at Mars.

Comment: amid Cold War 2.0, is the new space race coming? Some people surely dream of a scenario from the Apple TV series For All Mankind. But regardless, it’s not coming anytime soon, with best case scenario being first moon landing in 2028.

The Americas

With all eyes on Iran, there are real developments being missed in Cuba.

Miguel Diaz-Canel is not resigning amid pressure from the US. Trump is conducting a naval blockade of the island while Russia is pledging help with energy.

Comment:

Asia

A rather quiet week in Asia.

New measures:

• Some airlines reduced their flights, especially domestic Vietnam operators amid jet fuel shortage.

• Thailand and Malaysia introduced stricter WFH measures in order to conserve fuel.

Comment: despite the ceasefire, the traffic through the strait is still close to 0, worsening the energy supply shock day by day. Last week many nations were hopeful, if we don’t get any progress this week expect more and stricter measures.

Middle East & Africa

It’s been a chaotic week in the Middle East.

We started the week with America attacked Kharg Island again, hitting an airport, a dock and an IRGC base. Israel matched the effort targeting railways and bridges.

We also had the big ultimatum that ended in a last minute 2-week ceasefire. Initially it was conditional on the Strait of Hormuz reopening and included Lebanon, but later on the Strait remained closed and Lebanon war is still raging on.

The ceasefire was fragile at the beginning (still is tbh) as Lebanon issue is important for Iran and Israel is unwilling to cease fire there.

The talks happened on Friday-Saturday in Islamabad, even as many doubted they will come to negotiate. JD Vance led the US team as both sides negotiated for 21 hours before calling it quits with no deal on the table. JD Vance left Islamabad shortly after the end. Reportedly, the nuclear issue, as well as Strait of Hormuz opening, are the two main points that are not aligned.

During the talks, 2 American destroyers passed through the Strait of Hormuz to begin a mine-clearing operation. The ships departed after warnings from Iran.

After the negotiations, which Trump said went well, Trump announced a total blockade of the strait starting today 10AM ET. He also said that most points were agreed on, but Iran failed to commit to no nuclear weapon. At the same time Iran accuses the US of failing to build enough trust.

Comment: this looks like escalation before deescalation. 21 hours of intense talks are rather bullish for peace as it is longer any other negotiation with Iran recently lasted. We should expect some good news before market open, as usual. The question is how good of a news we can get and if it will lead to peace. For now traders are not optimistic looking at chances of permanent peace deal.

Netanyahu said Israel would begin talks with Lebanon with the strikes on Hezbollah continuing until further notice.

Comment: Trump is trying to reign in Israel, for now only mildly successfully. It remains to be seen if he manages to do it to the full extent. However, for now, Iran seems ok with the small offensive continuing.

Europe

It was a historic week in Europe.

Ukraine continued to bomb Russian energy infrastructure, hitting an oil terminal in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and an offshore drilling platforms in the Caspian Sea owned by Lukoil amid rising fears of global energy shortage. There was also a short ceasefire announced on the Orthodox Easter.

Comment: for now nothing indicates that either side is ready to stop. We must see what late spring brings in terms of new offensives.

Starmer was forced to shelve legislation ceding sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Trump strongly criticized the deal as Diego Garcia is one of the islands.

Comment: Diego Garcia is vital to American power projection. I don’t expect the deal to be ratified any time soon.

Orban lost the election in Hungary, ceding power for the first time since 2010. Tisza, led by ex-Fidesz Peter Magyar is projected to win the supermajority.

Comment: a stunning victory wis massive turnout. Just wait till people learn that Magyar is also right-wing and even tougher on immigration than Orban. His only difference is supposed lack of corruption (and lack of Russian connections), which remains to be seen.

Business, Finance & Economics

The US annual inflation reached 3.3% in March, up from 2.4% in February on rapidly rising energy prices.

Comment: the war has global consequences and the US will not escape them. Sure, it will be better off than most Asian countries, but everyone will be worse off.

Intel announced it would join Musk’s Terafab project, partnering with Tesla, SpaceX and xAI to help Musk manufacture his own chips for robotics and data centers in space.

Comment: Musk seems to be pumping the upcoming SpaceX IPO. Additionally, since Intel is partly government-controlled, it indicates that he is still in Trump’s favors. Important for the upcoming midterms.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. This week will be chaotic and volatile, but I’m cautiously optimistic we might get good news. Otherwise the global economy would really struggle and it is almost impossible to assess the havoc we would need to live through.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

It’s been a wild week with more chaotic developments on the war. On the one hand we have negotiations, while on the other hand we have continued military buildup in the region. These are conflicting signs, thus it is no wonder the people (and traders) struggle to derive a coherent position of either side.

Today’s edition is unstructured, but with great alpha.

So what is actually happening? How can we trade it? And what are the risks?

Iran

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Welcome to the 16th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.

For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.

By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.

Summary

March proved to be a volatile month, especially at the very end (again):

1. I started March with $18,350 in my portfolio.

2. Today my portfolio stands at $18,603.

3. There were no additional capital injections.

4. Total ROIC is 1.4% for the month and for -13% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.

5. All bankroll allocations are on the basis of starting bankroll.

The Good

I had a good assessment of the war being unresolvable in the short-term. I printed on No ceasefire by end of March. I additionally had a good position with Yes US boots on the ground by the end of the year that resolved early due to the CSAR operation of F15 crew.

I also had a good discussion that led to me having a small position on Israel invading Lebanon that printed as well.

All in all, these calls allowed for small profit this month.

The Bad

The one bad thing that erased most of my March gains was the fake ceasefire announcement. I had a high conviction that the fighting will continue as it does. However Trump decided to declare a ceasefire without internal consensus, nuking my positions on No ceasefire by mid and end of April, where I had the biggest positions.

It is a bit frustrating as the fighting goes on as I write this piece, over 24 hours past the supposed ceasefire introduction.

I find myself in a difficult spot, where my strategic assessment of the geopolitical situation is sound - be it saying that starting the war with current assets is a fool’s errand or saying that the fighting must continue as both sides demands are not reconcilable - but the execution on prediction markets is flawed as tactical developments go against my strategic fundamentals.

My strategy of accumulating strategic, high-conviction positions backfires with situations like the recent ceasefire. The announcement satisfied the rules of the market, and yet no fire was ceased. In a peculiar twist of events I was right, but lost on the market and the resolution was correct!

This article is late on purpose as the above problem occupied my head in the last few days. The strategy of holding high-conviction bets to resolution worked for me great in 2025. It actively hurts my portfolio in 2026: No strikes, No Khamenei out, No ceasefire, all of these positions were deeply in profit just ahead of action, and on par with my fair value assessment at that time.

Large part of the current underperformance is variance, I’m well aware of that. But my strategy was always high-risk and I believe I can sustainably de-risk it without an outsized impact on my profit potential. Especially since the remaining part of the current underperformance is the general chaos in the world. And I want to limit my exposure to chaos.

A ceasefire agreement with no cease of fire. Starting a war from a position of disadvantage. Killing the equivalent of a Shia pope in the first hour of the war. These are outcomes that are tough to predict and often trade very favorably just hours before happening.

Thus I need to further adjust my proprietary Kelly-based formula to include dynamic sizing. I hindsight, I as too eager to accept unnecessary risk when prediction markets allow me to dynamically adjust sizing. I was not taking advantage of the characteristics of prediction markets and I paid a big price for it. No more.

Bankroll Comments

Including limit orders, I have 70% of my bankroll available for trading and once I clear some of bureaucratic work I have to do, I am planning to allocate another 40% between Ukraine, Cuba and elections to fully utilize my earning potential.

Final allocation will differ from day to day due to dynamic sizing, but this is a rough aim.

Wrap Up

And that’s all for today. I will continue to assess my trading in the coming weeks and months as this is clearly the weakest part of my work currently.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! Fake narratives, disinformation and the fog of war dominate the headlines. We are being hit with conflicting information every hour now and at least some people got extremely confused about the whole global situation.

Looking at my X timeline, almost no one has a coherent view of the immediate future and both prediction markets and financial markets experience extreme volatility. So let’s try to keep our sanity here and look at the world through objective lenses.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Domestic politics goes on while the war rages on.

Trump sacked Pam Bondi, the AG. She oversaw Epstein files release and failed attempts to prosecute Trump’s enemies.

Comment: she’s not been particularly effective in her job to be honest.

With the Iran war raging on, the Trump admin said it would ask for a significant rise in defense spending in the next budget request for 2027. Funding would amount to ca. $1.5 trillion, an over 40% increase y/y.

Comment: massive amount of equipment is moving and Trump is asking for $1.5 trillion. Ceasefire? It’s rather a narrative for the markets than a serious negotiation.

Trump unveiled tariffs of up to 100% on some drugs, targeting pharmaceutical companies that didn’t move production to the US. Generic drugs will be exempt. Also some tariffs on products containing small amounts of steel, aluminum or copper were eased and simplified.

Comment: the longer the war goes on, the more tariffs will be adjusted as shortages of certain products hit the global markets.

Marco Rubio criticized China’s detention of ships with Panama flag and said it threatened the country’s sovereignty. China denies any wrongdoing, especially in connection to Panama canal ports that were taken away from Chinese companies.

Comment: just another day of US-China rivalry.

Artemis II mission launched with 4 astronauts on the way to circle the moon, in preparation for the first manned moon mission since the Apollo program. NASA wants to put first astronauts on the moon by 2028 and establish a permanent base there later on.

Comment: I wish them all the best in the mission, humans need to explore the space!

The Americas

Outside of Panama, nothing really to report here. Delcy is still staying strong:

Asia

As war rages on, more and more countries are not only introducing restrictions, but also negotiating with Iran.

New restrictions:

• China: extension of its existing ban on exports of refined fuels (diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel) through the whole of April, with only limited/small-volume exemptions possibly granted to select Southeast Asian countries that requested assistance.

• Indonesia: introduction of a daily cap on subsidized fuel purchases of 50 liters per private four-wheeled vehicle (higher limits apply to public transport and heavy vehicles). Purchases above the quota are charged at non-subsidized prices. Friday Work-From-Home mandate for all government employees and civil servants introduced. Private-sector employers were “strongly encouraged” to follow the same schedule to reduce commuting fuel use and office electricity demand.

• Malaysia: mandatory WFH for all public-sector employees, statutory bodies, and government-linked companies. Batik Air announced it would trim approximately 35% of its scheduled flights in the first half of April to conserve jet fuel amid shortages and soaring costs linked to the Iran conflict.

• South Korea: raised its national energy-security alert from “caution” to “warning” and, alongside the odd-even license-plate driving restrictions for public institutions (effective April 8), officially encouraged flexible/remote working arrangements and video-conference meetings across government agencies and large private firms. Low-cost carriers Jin Air and Air Busan suspended flights on several routes (including Incheon–Guam) in response to rising jet-fuel costs.

• Myanmar: tightening of existing fuel-rationing rules for taxis, three-wheelers, and cargo trucks by linking sales directly to verified mileage traveled (replacing prior engine-capacity or fixed-quota systems).

• Thailand: Thai AirAsia and Thai AirAsia X suspended multiple domestic and international routes (including Bangkok–Narathiwat and Don Mueang–Xi’an) effective mid-April through summer 2026. Work from home encouragement as well.

• Philippines: Cebu Pacific began suspending select domestic and regional flights across Asia.

Comment: first slowly, then suddenly, COVID-style lockdowns are being implemented across Asia to curb demand.

The Philippines and Iran agreed on safe passage for the formers vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

Comment: more and more countries will cut deals with Iran as the situation progresses.

The Cook Islands signed a defense and security agreement with New Zealand, months after they signed a strategic partnership with China.

Comment: just another part of east vs west rivalry.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran war drama continues.

Threats over Kharg Island continued, as did strikes on oil infrastructure across the region.

Zelensky hailed historic security agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE on drone defense.

The peace proposal from the beginning of the week failed.

Trump also did a televised address in which he assumed another 2-3 weeks of intense operations in Iran before the US can end the war.

Then Trump threatened bridges and power plants if Iran fails to agree to a ceasefire, culminating in a very angry message below

There was also a rescue operation for the pilots of a downed F-15 airplane over Iran, which succeeded with pretty high equipment costs.

Iran’s foreign minister wanted that a radioactive fallout will end life in the Gulf after a 4th attack on the area surrounding Busher nuclear power plant, where one person died due to the strikes.

There was a massive airlift operation over the weekend.

There a new ceasefire rumor, first it was a 45-day ceasefire proposal, leaked by Axios, then a 2-phase peace plan proposed by Pakistan.

Comment: it’s Monday so we got another ceasefire narrative, even more outrageously fake than previous ones. Don’t get me wrong - they are talking, there are always conversations taking place - but there is nothing they can agree on and there is no advanced negotiation taking place. As for other developments, all points to further escalation and possible boots on the ground. More on Wednesday in my upcoming video.

8 muslim majority countries, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey criticized new Israeli law that will expand the use of the death penalty, in fears that it will be used to target Palestinians.

Comment: the plan must continue and there will be no 2-state solution unless Israeli leadership changes materially.

Europe

Another interesting week in Europe as it braces for energy supply shock (it is the next most affected region after Asia).

New restrictions (outside of Slovakia fuel rationing and Poland fuel price cap):

• European Union: Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen urged all member states to promote Work-From-Home where possible, reduce driving, lower highway speed limits by 10 km/h, use public transport more, carpool, and avoid non-essential flying.

• Italy: Imposed jet fuel refueling restrictions at Bologna, Milan Linate, Treviso, and Venice airports due to limited availability from Air BP Italia. Priority given to medical, government, and long-haul flights.

• United Kingdom: Aurigny airline reduced approximately 12% of its scheduled flights (cancellations and consolidations) on multiple routes from mid-April to early June.

• Europe: Ryanair warned it may cancel 5–10% of its flights during May–July if jet fuel supply disruptions continue.

Comment: Europe is 2-3 weeks behind Asia, expect measures to follow if the conflict continues unresolved.

Zelensky discussed the possibility of an Easter ceasefire, but it failed as Russia dubbed it a PR stunt.

Comment: Ukraine war, or more precisely peace efforts, will get really interesting in the next couple of months.

European countries are privately pushing back against new windfall taxes on big oil, deeming the measure premature while the European Commission is working on a plan.

Comment: it will happen eventually.

Meloni met with Qatar leadership as part of a 2-day diplomatic push to strengthen ties with the Gulf to secure energy supplies. She also talked with Mohammed bin Salman.

Comment: I’d rather say she went straight to the source to understand the fallout. We should closely watch Italy in the next few days regarding new measures.

French police tightened security at sites across Paris after foiling a bomb attack at the BofA HQs. Other American banks allowed temporary WFH while the authorities placed 4 people linked to Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiyya under investigation.

Comment: Europe is worried about joining the war partly because of terrorist threat from sleeper cells. Another con of having large amounts of migrants.

Business, Finance & Economics

SpaceX filed for an IPO. Valued at over $1 trillion, it is looking to raise tens of billions to usher its plans for a Mars base and data centers in space.

Comment: potentially the hottest IPO ever, let’s see if it comes to that amid potential stock market crash in the making.

Blue Owl enforced a cap on redemptions at 5% of shares per quarter from 2 of its private credit funds.

Comment: rumors of a private credit crash have been circulating for months; it is yet another proof they are correct.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. I’m working on a Hungary election thesis at the moment, if I find anything I’ll publish a deep dive this week. Stay strong and catch me here or on X.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Once again a day late, this time due to travel. It’s been quite a wild week, both globally and personally. I can only imagine this Easter will have some rather somber conversations. The fact that the Artemis II mission is swept from the top of the news cycle speaks volumes about the current state of the world.

My portfolio also resembles this as pretty much all of my positions are around the Iran war now. And it’s been a great week for my portfolio as markets are converging on my recent thesis:

Iran

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Welcome to another week! Iran war is still wrecking havoc on the global economy while many countries start to implement measures to soften the blow of the crisis. However, despite my focus on the war, there are still events happening around the globe; some connected to the war, others less so.

There is plenty to comment on since last week. All based on the best source of reliable information in the world, ie. prediction markets, and most precisely where there are the most crucial markets on global events.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

In the US, there is always something going on.

Trump said his summit in Beijing with Xi Jinping had been rescheduled to May amid the Iran war. Trump also said he will host Xi in Washington later this year.

Comment: war or not, they need to meet eventually. Especially if the round 2 of the conflict goes against the US and the strait will continue to be controlled by Iran.

Trump directed the DHS to pay airport security staff, declaring the six-week DHS shutdown an “emergency situation”. In the meantime, Republicans in the House rejected an earlier passed bill by the Senate that would have opened the department as it failed to fund immigration enforcement. A stop-gap funding bill was introduced by Mike Johnson, but it is expected to fail in the Senate.

Comment: Polymarket tells us we shouldn’t expect the end of this saga anytime soon. I tend to agree with that assessment as limiting the immigration enforcement is in Democrats and more center-aligned Republicans interest.

We had a third round of “No Kings” protests in the US on Saturday, marching against Trump and his recent policies. More than 8 million people attended over 3,000 events across the country, while Trump’s approval rating is at -18.

Comment: Trump is making no friends by his recent actions which shows not only on his approval rating, but also midterms markets, as seen above, where a democrat sweep is now the most likely scenario.

NASA announced new plans to return the astronauts to the Moon before the ned of Trump’s term in 2028. Jared Isaacman, the new agency head, also said a new $20 billion base would be built on the Moon to allow for more reliance on the private sector. In the meantime 4 astronauts entered final preparations to loop the Moon in the preparatory mission to land on it and create a permanent human base there.

Comment: the haste is purely political, but I’m glad to see renewed progress in the space mission department.

A jury in LA found Meta and YouTube liable in a andmark social media addiction trial. A 20-year-old woman alleged their platforms are designed to be addictive, which harmed her mental health; they were ordered to pay $3m in total damages, while TikTok and Snap settled the case pre-trial.

Comment: it opens the doors for a lot of Americans to sue social media companies. But what is more, it opens a door to heavily regulate social media. Policies like the Australian ban are coming sooner than we think.

A federal judge in America blocked the Trump administration from blacklisting Anthropic. It is part of the Pentagon x Anthropic fight.

Comment: despite all the fight from Anthropic, they will have their models used for war as there is no other way to secure government contracts they so badly need.

The Americas

No news from the Americas this week. And Delcy is still looking strong to lead Venezuela long-term.

Asia

It’s a tough period for Asia.

Taiwan’s opposition leader will visit China in April. The opposition wants to regain power by pitching closer ties with China.

Comment: the strategy of a 1,000 cuts is working for China, especially consideirng the current energy crisis.

Many Asian countries are introducing measures to soften the blow of the acute energy crisis unfolding in the region.

Comment: COVID-style lockdowns will make a comeback.

Middle East & Africa

Iran war is definitely escalating.

I posted a deep dive on the issues:

As well as a commentary video on last week’s developments, so I’ll be brief here:

After the initial ceasefire message that postponed the ultimatum issued last weekend, we’ve heard only hawkish messages. The Us is sending more troops to the region as it mulls a wider ground operation.

Ceasefire efforts, culminated in a 15-point plan for Iran failed. Despite that, Trump extended his deadline for his ultimatum till April 6th.

However, by the end of the week, Houthi joined the fight as Iran is getting ready for the US escalation. The Houthi are also mulling the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.

Generally the 2 sides threatened each other by floating targeting of energy sites and even American universities across the region.

By the end of the week, USS Tripoli with thousands of Marines arrived in the region, ready to engage Iran.

Comment: we are in for round 2 and it will be a consequential one as the US will try to free the Strait of Hormuz.

In the meantime the Lebanon invasion is going forward. While the culture minister of Lebanon is warning against the invasion that displaced over 1 million civilians, Netanyahu ordered the IDF to expand the existing security zone in the southern Lebanon.

Comment: this is a wider, regional war that won’t end anytime soon.

Europe

Despite all the action in the Middle East, it has also been a busy week in Europe.

Russia launched one of the biggest aerial attacks on Ukraine since the war began, sending 948 drones at targets across the country. The strikes hit a key power line in southern Ukraine which affected Moldova’s electricity supply.

Comment: between the three options Putin faces this summer, escalation seems most likely.

Lukashenko flew to Pyongyang to meet with Kim Jong Un. We have little details on the trip besides the Belarusian leader laying wreath on Mr Putin’s behalf at Kumsusan mausoleum, where North Korea’s former leaders lie.

Comment: Belarus, amid lack of western engagement, is surely moving towards Russia in the west vs east alignment.

The European Parliament approved a trade deal with the US on conditions that America lowers its rate on European goods to 15%, as promised, and Europe having a right to scrap the agreement in case its sovereignty is threatened by the US.

Comment: finally, some red lines from Europe with an actual threat to enforce them.

Giorgia Meloni conceded defeat in a referendum on judicial reform. Early results showed 54% of Italians opposed her proposal while 59% of Italians voted in the referendum.

Comment: no real comment from me as I didn’t track the event. However her defeat means weakening of the right-wing in Italy.

Austria proposed a social media restriction for young people, those under the age of 14.

Comment: as mentioned above, heavy social media regulation is coming; not only in the US, but worldwide.

Business, Finance & Economics

Also an interesting week in business and economics, with a bit of irony.

The OECD warned that global growth would be weakened by the Iran war related energy shock. It has forecasted the growth in 2026 would be 2.9%.

Comment: they are severely underestimating the impact of the energy shock.

Danone agreed to buy Huel, a British meal-replacement drinks company, for $1.2 billion. The drinks are supposedly popular with Ozempic users.

Comment: Huel was a decent replacement last I checked, interesting that such a giant is interested in the niche.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. Stay strong and catch me here or on X.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

I’m a day late and this week’s update will be on the shorter side. Vast majority of my portfolio is allocated towards Iran related markets and I’ve published my deep dive on the situation on Thursday:

But there are still a few questions to ask, especially: “what’s next?”.

Iran

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This week has been different. For the first time since the start of the war we started getting dovish signals from the US. Whatever is your opinion on the feasibility of the ceasefire, it is the first time the US publicly entertained a real option to end the conflict.

Along with this narrative, we also saw main demands from the US and Iran. Next to a “kinetic negotiation” of war, a diplomatic track was opened. While there is a long way between opening a diplomatic track (eg. the diplomatic track in Ukraine war has been open since early 2025), we now have new information that is necessary to assess.

As there is a lot of conflicting information, I need to go through both aspects of the negotiation and derive the path we are on.

The Diplomatic Track

First news of an opening of a diplomatic track hit us on Monday with this post from Trump:

Since then we learned the respective position of the two sides with regards to ending the conflict.

The US (rumored):

1. Removal of all sanctions on Iran.

2. US assistance in advancing and developing a civilian nuclear project (electricity generation).

3. Removal of the threat of sanctions being reimposed.

4. Iran’s nuclear program is frozen under a defined framework.

5. Enriched uranium to remain, but under supervision and agreed limits.

6. Missile program to be addressed at a later stage, with limits on quantity and range.

7. Use of nuclear programs restricted to civilian/defensive purposes only.

8. Development of existing nuclear capabilities halted.

9. No further expansion of enrichment capabilities.

10. No production of weapons-grade nuclear material on Iranian soil.

11. All enriched material to be handed over to the IAEA within an agreed timeline.

12. Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow to be taken out of use (destroyed).

13. International monitoring and verification mechanisms enforced.

14. Gradual implementation tied to compliance.

15. Additional regional and security understandings between the parties.

Iranian response:

1. The enemy’s aggression and acts of assassination come to an end.

2. Objective conditions are established to ensure that the war will not reoccur.

3. The payment of damages and war reparations is guaranteed and clearly determined.

4. The end of the war is implemented across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved in this conflict throughout the region.

5. Iran’s exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is its natural and legal right and guarantees for the implementation of the other party’s commitments must be recognized.

These seem pretty far apart, but the real conclusion is that both sides are rather still talking past each other.

Conclusion

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Welcome to another week! Today we are anxiously awaiting the ultimatum deadline from Trump. I continue to sound the alarm as we are entering uncharted waters when it comes to acute energy supply shock. Expect shortages of some goods along with massive inflation coming to your country, wherever you live.

Some countries I expect will issue COVID-style lockdowns to manage demand as we enter deeper into the conflict. General prospects are bad, to say the least.

At PROPHET NOTES I continue to provide coverage of most consequential global events so look below for a summary of last week’s developments.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

This week has been a real roller-coaster in the US.

Trump asked China to delay his meeting with Xi Jinping because of the ongoing war with Iran.

Comment: there are many theories on why the meeting was actually delayed. My opinion is that Trump does not want to negotiate from a position of perceived weakness - the US needs to open the Strait of Hormuz first.

Joe Kent, the national counterterrorism chief, resigned from his post in protest against the Iran war.

Comment: feels like a hot potato game where no one wants to bear responsibility for the current war in Iran.

Trump met with Sanae Takaichi in Washington. They discussed the current conflict and Trump made a rather inappropriate joke about Pearl Harbor.

Comment: Japan is hit hard by the current crisis. However, they have almost a year’s worth of reserves - they have the leeway to think strategically about this war and potentially help the US. For now though, there is nothing concrete.

Trump also threatened to deploy ICE agents to airports if congressional Democrats don’t agree to fund airport security, which is the part of DHS funding lapse.

Comment: it’s refreshing to see some domestic politics during this crisis. However, Trump’s threat doesn’t seem to make any impression on the Democrats as chances of the DHS situation being resolved soon tanked.

The Americas

While all eyes are turned towards Iran, there is a real crisis brewing on the western hemisphere.

Cuba’s electricity grid collapsed, leaving around 10 million people without power as oil embargo on the island continues. Also violent protests broke out in response to the blackouts.

Comment: another crisis is brewing ion the island that if mismanaged, can lead to Cuba becoming another Haiti. It’s not very likely in my opinion, but with the current focus on Iran, anything is game.

Despite the threat of sanctions, Russia signaled that it is ready to back Cuba, in opposition to Trump. Some tankers were also sent to the island, however none have reached it yet.

Comment: between internet issues in Moscow and Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, I believe Putin has more important matters to attend to in an effort to bolster Russian economy a bit. But it is arguably a decent PR move from him.

In a power consolidation move, Delcy Rodriguez got rid of Vladimir Padrino Lopez, the now ex defense minister regarded as top 3 powerful people in the country after Maduro’s kidnapping.

Comment: it can be power consolidation or a crisis in the making. Wee shall know soon if Lopez still has the power to challenge Delcy. For now her chances of staying are flat on the news.

Asia

With the Strait of Hormuz closure, Asian countries are the most affected and are already scrambling to limit the most severe consequences of shortages.

Sri Lanka announced its public institutions would no longer work on Wednesdays to save energy. Thailand encourages WFH and asks businesses to cut on the AC. Laos has supposedly 5 days of reserves left. And Vietnam cannot ensure het fuel availability beyond the end of March.

Comment: things are getting really dire in SEA and we can expect to see COVID-style lockdowns being implemented soon across the most affected economies.

Middle East & Africa

Iran war.

A lot has happened in the Iran war. Both sides continue the strikes, with some being extremely heavy as the one on southern Israel, near Dimona, that injured at least 160 people.

Qatari LNG facility was severely damaged, cutting 17% of capacity for the next 3-5 years, while South Pars facility in Iran was hit. Trump also threatened further strikes on the energy infrastructure if Iran does not open the strait by tomorrow. Iran threatened to respond in kind across the whole region.

Additional Marines units were deployed to the region, with an ETA around end of April. While they are en route, Trump is teasing Kharg Island invasion while complaining that no ally wants to help the US unlock the Strait of Hormuz.

The US and Israel continue to claim that Iranian capabilities are almost entirely destroyed, but the constant level of launches per day seems to deny that.

The Pentagon is also asking the Congress for additional $200 billion for the war in Iran. In the meantime Scott Bessent eased sanctions on Iranian oil to soften the blow to global energy markets.

Iran also launched missiles at Diego Garcia. They didn’t hit the island, but the action showcased Iran’s ability to target pretty much every European capital.

Comment: I made a whole video with commentary on the last week’s developments, I wouldn’t do the situation any justice, commenting here in a couple of sentences:

Israel is also continuing its invasion of southern Lebanon. Recently it destroyed Qasmiyeh Bridge, on the Litani River in the south of his country, warning that it was a prelude to a ground invasion.

Comment: Israel uses the situation to resolve the Hezbollah issue as well.

Europe

Europe also starts to feel the pressure from the Iran war.

European countries were told to lower its LNG refill targets by the EU to soften the impact of the Iran war.

Comment: Europe is also highly dependent on deliveries from the Gulf countries. It is the second most impacted region after Asia, and we can expect further measures as this conflict goes on.

Slovakia started fuel rationing to conserve oil amid Iran crisis.

Comment: as you see, it begins.

EU leaders failed to convince Viktor Orban to approve a 90 million EUR loan package to Ukraine as Hungary and Slovakia accuse Ukraine of delaying repairs to the Druzhba oil pipeline, which crosses its territory and was damaged in a drone attack in January.

Comment: I’m really curious to see the impact of Iran war on Ukraine war with Russia boosting revenue and Europe entering another energy crisis. The situation looks prime for escalation.

There was an election for the mayor of Paris, the last big election before the presidential election next year. Emmanuel Gregoire has won.

Comment: the Socialist Party candidate has won, he was expected to win since mid-January.

Business, Finance & Economics

Outside of all the force majeure clauses being triggered across LNG, oil and other petroleum-adjacent industries, we didn’t have any major news on business.

For now, everyone if focused on the price of oil, but price of all energy commodities is up a lot since the start of the war:

At this point the energy supply shock is a given and each day of the war brings closer the actual global crisis that could dwarf the 2008 GFC.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. I will have my Strait of Hormuz thesis ready this week. Otherwise catch me either here or on X. Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

I’m not gonna lie - this is a very tense times for me. What I’ve been saying can happen as a result of the US entering this war with Iran is materializing right in font of our eyes. People that are not interested in global power struggles are starting to see the impact of this war at the pump. Pretty soon they will notice it everywhere - developed economies will see another round of inflation while some developing economies are bound to experience shortages. Some countries already see the price of essentials going up:

Those analysts who are not sounding the alarm with me are either high on hopium, delusional or propaganda mouthpieces. Remember them, their aim is to make you feel good rather than provide sound analysis that can help you make decisions. Choose your analysts wisely.

Accurately predicting the course of this war is a bittersweet victory, but I will continue to provide my forecasts backed by skin in the game to counter the plan trusters. In fact I’m finishing up my Strait of Hormuz escort operation forecast that I hope to publish tomorrow. In the meantime, catch my portfolio update where I expand on my reasoning around Iran war and the western hemisphere. Posting on X is one thing, providing rationale is another.

Iran

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Welcome to another week! The world continues to watch the Iran war as the fallout from the Strait of Hormuz closure reverberates across the global economy. The conflict has significantly upended the geopolitical calculus and after an initial shock, countries around the world scramble to position themselves accordingly.

Amid extremely thick fog of war, prediction markets continue to be the best and most reliable source of information about the war. From ceasefire chances to strait closure to on the ground developments, there is no better place to get your daily updates.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Amid Iran war, domestic issues in the US remain mostly outside the main news cycle.

Scott Bessent announced that America will temporarily ease sanctions to allow countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum currently at sea.

Comment: the US is trying to manage the energy shortage while it scrambles to begin escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz. A carefully calibrated narrative around Iran operations and oil availability is aimed at calming the markets in hope escort operations will bring back enough energy supply to contain the worst.

America launched investigations into several of its trading partners (EU, China, Japan and India among others). Official cause is to examine excess capacity and production in manufacturing sectors.

Comment: analysts believe the move is mostly a precursor to implementing section 301 tariffs after SCOTUS shut down IEEPA tariffs.

The Americas

With Cuba caving in, the Americas are once again one of the most interesting regions in the world now when it comes to geopolitics.

Both Cuba and the US said that talks are ongoing between the two historic rivals. After increasing sanctions on the communist island, the Trump embargo on oil pushed Cuba on the brink, forcing the regime to negotiate.

Comment: Cuba is in a difficult situation. However, the communist regime on the island is deeply entrenched and hopes of having Venezuela-style transition might be too optimistic. For now, Trump doesn’t exclude a military intervention on the island, but he claims such an action would only be done once Iran is finished; a promise he might be forced to break.

Mark Carney of Canada announced plans to invest additional $25.7 billion in defense and infrastructure projects across the Arctic amid pressure from Trump and threats from Russia.

Comment: could it be the start to USMCA renegotiation? Maybe, just maybe…

Asia

Asia is the one region that is and will be the most affected by the supply shock coming from the Strait of Hormuz.

China’s exports grew by 21.8% during the first two months of 2026 on y/y basis. GDP growth was 6.6% in December. On the other hand, China despite having large oil reserve, is looking to be hit by rising oil prices and may be forced to increase its reliance on Russia. And Trump might delay his China visit due to the Iran war.

Comment: well, this war in Iran is ALSO about China. We surely don’t have all the details, but in the long term the competitive position of China is more hurt by not having access to Gulf oil than American position is hurt by global supply shock.

North Korea fired around 10 missiles into the Sea of Japan as America and South Korea carried out joint military exercises. On Friday SK’s prime minister met with Trump to discuss ways to resume talks with the North which were paused in 2019.

Comment: a rather harmless muscle flexing. However, the region must be watched closely now that we have a potentially prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

Middle East & Africa

Iran war continues with no signs of stopping.

Trump continues to float conflicting statements about the ending of the war, all in order to prop up the markets. At the same time Iran is creating a narrative in which they want to fight on and establish deterrence. Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader pledged to avenge his father and other martyrs.

Australia granted asylum to 5 members of Iran’s women’s football team, which is in the country for the Asian Cup. However, all members later walked back the asylum ask.

American refueling plane crashed in Iraq with all the crew found and declared dead. The cause is supposed to be a mid-air collision during refueling. Additionally, a French soldier was killed in a drone attack in Iraq.

America also hit Kharg Island, however it spared oil infrastructure for now.

Gulf countries continue to be targeted with air traffic far from normal levels. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed.

Comment: you can read my latest thoughts on the Iran war in the latest Situation Monitor.

You can also listen to my analysis on my YouTube channel in my latest video from yesterday

While the Iran war rages on, Pakistan and Afghanistan are also exchanging blows, most recently Afghanistan launched drones against civilian areas of Pakistan.

Comment: interesting timing for such a confrontation. But I need to read more about the situation.

Europe

It was a quite uneventful week in Europe as all the capitals are thinking about energy supply.

Ursula von der Leyen suggested that Germany had been wrong to shut down its nuclear reactors, naming it a strategic mistake. Additionally, Belgian prime minister is calling for normalization of ties with Russia.

Comment: facing acute energy shortages, Europe is fast to realize its past mistakes, but still a bit slow in securing new supply. The conflict’s impact on Europe and Ukraine war is surely worth a deep dive. Soon.

Polish president vetoed an act of parliament related to accessing SAFE facility for arming.

Comment: there is a lot of misinformation about the whole situation. It’s not as big of a deal as the media try to present it.

Business, Finance & Economics

Some general news from the world of business this week. Most eyes are laser focused on the Iran war.

The International Energy Agency will release a record stock of oil from its emergency reserves to counter oil price volatility. 400 million barrels are to be released into the market, representing 20 days of Gulf supply.

Comment: it’s not nearly enough, but it buys the US some time to secure essential traffic through the strait.

Anthropic sued the Pentagon for labelling it a supply chain risk, a designation that blocks the firm from working with defense contractors. It has never been applied to an American company.

Comment: part of the fight to use AI for war planning. Anthropic is very against it, but at the same time defense contracts are the cash cow you need for a truly big business. we all know how this ends.

Bill Ackman filed to list a new closed-end fund on the NYSE. It’s yet another time the investor tries to build a modern day Berkshire Hathaway.

Comment: coming back to the old topic. There is no organizational premium in hedge funds. It’s all about the smart people taking smart bets, thus it is extremely hard to treat it as a conglomerate.

Wrap up

And that’s al for today. This week I’m planning my Strait of Hormuz deep dive as we all will be watching next moves from the US and Iran.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

I missed last week’s update due to Iran war wrecking havoc on my schedule (and portfolio), but we are back to regular programing. Since the last update a lot has changed, but you had plenty of opportunity to hear about it, from the post mortem I published to the monthly State of the PROPHET NOTES.

Today will be a rather short update as I’m in the process of working out the big questions around the Strait of Hormuz. A deep dive on it will come out next week, while today I will focus on more general implications of the current situation.

Iran

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Welcome to the 15th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.

For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.

By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.

Summary

February proved to be a difficult month, especially at the very end:

1. I started February with $23,419 in my portfolio.

2. Today my portfolio stands at $18,350.

3. There were no additional capital injections.

4. Total ROIC is -21.5% for the month and for -14% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.

5. All bankroll allocations below are on the basis of starting bankroll.

The Good

I’ve been mentally prepared to handle the loss and I feel good with my analysis. My thinking around the conflict being difficult was correct and I have high confidence in my war analysis.

Additionally, I continue to have a good pipeline of events to focus on to recoup my recent losses. And that’s it, after all it was a red month so more bad things happened than good.

The Bad

Whole February went splendid. Up until the very last day, when not only Israel and the US strike on Iran happened, but they also managed to kill Khamenei at the very start of the conflict.

The bad thing here was not the thesis. It was an expectation that all actors are rational. In hindsight we see that the strike is not an astounding victory, the jury is still out and chances are it will all end badly. Killing Khamenei was a stupid decision, especially since they replaced him with his son.

The US made a mistake, they came in underprepared. But I have to account for mistakes in my theses. I need to be more attentive to details and understand when the vibe is shifting. For example, I should have recognized the Omani FM interview as the last hailmary that reeked of desperation, rather than a good tactic to save the negotiations. Desperate hailmaries rarely work. Full post mortem available here:

I also lost a few hundred bucks on the US forces on the ground after the fake OSINT report, showing I need to be extremely careful when trading on unconfirmed rumors. The space is really filled with propaganda and pure fake news.

Bankroll Comments

I have 79% of my bankroll to deploy and I’m looking at Iran, Cuba and Hungary in the near future. After a flurry of geopolitical events it will be nice to focus on European election. I continue to be more conservative with my bankroll allocations.

Wrap Up

And that’s all for today. We are on for the greener waters in March with plenty of markets and content ahead.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! After a short break related to Iran war we are back to regular programing. Tomorrow drops the State of the PROPHET NOTES where I will do a summary of, well… a rather bad month trading wise, but surprisingly good signal wise. I will elaborate tomorrow.

On top, I’m back to making videos this week with, you guessed it, Iran commentary. And lastly, this week’s paid piece will go over the Strait of Hormuz: the issues, the second and third-order effects and the actual possibility of opening it.

That’s it when it comes to personal updates, now straight to the global outlook.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Iran war has put every other headline out of the top of the news pages, but it doesn’t mean we didn’t have any worthy developments.

Kristi Noem is no longer the head of the Department of Homeland Security. She was replaced by Markwayne Mullin after Trump was supposedly not impressed with her testimony in front of Congress after the Minnesota killings.

Comment: after the shitshow in Minnesota someone needed to be sacrificed and there was no better candidate than the head of the DHS. Now we are wondering who will be next, with Pam Bondi, Pete Hegseth and Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor) in the most danger:

We had early primaries in Texas, where we had at least a few surprises. In Senate, GOP’s Cornyn and Paxton are headed to a May runoff while Democrats nominated Talarico over Crockett. In House races, Gonzales advanced to a runoff amid an affair scandal and Crenshaw lost to a more conservative challenger.

Comment: we are seeing early surprises in the primaries, however it looks like wrong foreign policy decision and focus on international affairs over domestic problems will have bigger impact on the overall race.

DOJ released another batch of Epstein files in which Donald Trump is accused of sexually abusing a minor.

Comment: I’m hearing that the Trump accuser is not exactly trustworthy, but the situation is surely far from good for Trump.

The Americas

In The America, my eyes are turned towards Venezuela as any issues there would send Trump and GOP on the downward spiral.

Maria Corina Machado pledged to return to Venezuela, however Delcy Rodriguez is far from welcoming. Additionally Machado seems to have no support from the White House or the Congress.

Comment: I believe that the Venezuela “opposition” is dead. They had years to prepare for the moment and when it finally came, Machado was out of country and her whole movement failed to produce even a single event, let alone victory. No strength, no influence:

Mark Carney called for Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor to be removed from Britain’s line of succession for his actions revealed as part of Epstein files disclosure. King Charles removed his titles, but Andrew is still eight in line to the throne and Britain’s monarch are also Canada’s head of state.

Comment: Andrew is going down as the sacrificial lamb and Carney is kicking him on top.

American special forces are supporting troops in Ecuador in a military operation against drug trafficking sites. They are there in an advisory role, not participating in raids.

Comment: the western hemisphere is still a priority.

Asia

Asia is the primary region affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This week was not that eventful, but the next few weeks ahead will surely prove different.

China set a GDP growth target for 2026 at 4.5-5% at the National People’s Congress.

Comment: It’s the first time in decades the growth target is set below 5%. Despite the numbers being fake anyway, China is feeling the heat from the global power rivalry.

Dozens of people were killed in Pakistan amid protests against the US attack on Iran. Notably, people were tryin to storm the American consulate in Karachi, the biggest city in the country and de facto economic center. American marines stationed there opened fire, although it is not clear how many of the casualties can be attributed to them.

Comment: Pakistan has large Shia minorities that are aligned with the Iranian regime. It is a divided country, considering it officially has a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, a Sunni monarchy.

Speaking of Pakistan, they have an ongoing conflict with Afghanistan. Pakistani and Afghan forces clashed on the border and Pakistan targeted Taliban infrastructure.

Comment: it started just before the Iran war and there is non-zero chance it can spill over and combine. Just another volatile part in the highly volatile region. And Pakistan has nukes + a treaty with the Saudis…

Balendra Shah is looking to win the Nepal election after preliminary results showed his Rastriya Swatantra Party victorious. Ex-rapper is set to be the first PM of Nepal after Gen Z protests toppled the previous government.

Comment: it will be interesting to see the direction Nepal takes after the revolution.

Middle East & Africa

Iran… there is a lot to unpack here.

I don’t want to spend too much time here as I also write daily briefs on the war now (look at Adjacent News if you want to get them to your inbox), but some things need to be said.

First of all, the regime still stands. Second of all, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Third, the new Supreme Leader of Iran is Khamenei’s son, even more radical now and endorsed by IRGC. Fourth, Gulf countries are hurting a lot; from reputation to oil infrastructure to desalination plants. Fifth, Israel is getting hit as well, showing that after a week of intensive air campaign, they still have plenty of missiles and launchers left at play.

On the other hand, Iran is getting hit hard. Tehran is literally burning. Oil and water infrastructure was also hit. Whole senior leadership was killed. Artesh navy was obliterated. Forced into decentralized Mosaic Doctrine, their attacks are disorganized, diminishing their effectiveness.

Iran is definitely losing the war. But ironically, they might be winning the negotiations. They are imposing high costs and the fight is, in a sense, more even than expected.

Volatile weeks are ahead of us, and if you want to read more about the Iran war and its prospects, here’s my latest piece on it:

There is also high chance Eritrea and Ethiopia will go at it since their whole neighborhood is engaged in fighting.

Comment: Ethiopia is landlocked and potentially stronger and can use the fact that everyone is busy to carve out something for itself.

Europe

We heard very surprising news from Europe this week.

Talks on Ukraine peace have been suspended amid the Iran war situation.

Comment: Putin is not interested in ending the war at the moment as global conditions currently favor him and his energy exports.

Macron made a dramatic speech in which he announced the expansion of France’s nuclear arsenal and proposed to offer some European countries a nuclear umbrella. He also announced a new nuclear-armed submarine by 2036.

Comment: France is looking to take the military leadership of Europe. While Britain is trapped outside of Europe and the US and Germany is economically weak with an even weaker military, it is France that is looking to fill the vacuum the US is leaving.

British police arrested 3 men on suspicion of spying for China. One of them is the spouse of Joani Reid, a Labour MP.

Comment: imagine how worse it will get with the new embassy.

Iceland announced its referendum on resuming discussions to join the European Union will be held on August 29th. Polling is split; the country began negotiations in 2009, but suspended them in 2015 in a worry for its fishing industry.

Comment: Iceland can be an important country thanks to its access to the Arctic Ocean, it may benefit from an EU membership in these uncertain times.

Business, Finance & Economics

And some more bad news from the world of finance to wrap things up.

Unemployment in the US rose to 4.4% in February as employers cut 92,000 jobs.

Comment: the economy is hurting and now we are looking to add a supply shock to the mix. If you ever had advanced macroeconomics then you know how bad it is. And if you didn’t then let me tell you that it could get really ugly and there will be no economic tool or policy to prevent it or fix it quickly. I wish good luck to Kevin Warsh.

BlackRock capped withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund, a private credit fund.Shareholders requested to withdraw $1.2 billion (9.3%), but the firm capped it at $620 million (5%).

Comment: from my exposure to private credit funds in my previous life these are some really risky deals; there is a reason someone turns to private credit. The reason is no bank is willing to finance whatever they want to do.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.