Welcome to another week! We had a surprise development over the weekend as the US stopped its strikes on Iran. However, the Houthis are still fighting. Outside of the Iran war, we had developments across tariffs, midterms and LatAm elections.

In the Eastern Hemisphere the spotlight is on Ukraine and record wildfires in Western Europe. All while there was an ASEAN summit where Rubio and Lavrov met.

Each week I gather all the relevant news and provide my commentary in my Global Outlooks. This way you can look under the hood and see how a geopolitical trader thinks about the world. Paid subscribers go a level deeper: my full Iran and Ukraine war coverage, election deep dives, and the fair values I'm actually trading on.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The Trump administration imposed tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 countries, accusing them of failing to police imports of goods made with forced labor. They begin on Friday, when a separate 10% levy expires. Trump has repeatedly adjusted his tariffs since the Supreme Court struck down their main legal justification in February.

Trump will also impose a new 50% tariff on nearly $20 billion of Canadian goods for “discriminatory treatment of American products”. The levy takes effect in 30 days under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, an obscure provision that has not been used before to set tariffs. Products already subject to tariffs, such as steel, are exempt.

Separately, Trump said generic-drug manufacturers must move production to America or face a 100% tariff from August 2028, rising to 200% from August 2029. Generic drugs account for about 90% of prescriptions filled in America, most of them manufactured in India and Europe.

Comment: as usual with Trump, tariffs are used as leverage and their implementation can always be delayed. I don't think these announcements shock anyone at this point.

Member states of the International Criminal Court voted to fire Karim Khan, its chief prosecutor, over allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denies. He is the first sitting chief prosecutor removed in the court’s history. The decision comes as the court faces pressure from America over its investigations into American and Israeli citizens; Marco Rubio recently launched a campaign to “dismantle” the ICC.

Comment: the US only likes the international organizations it controls. Since the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, America has been openly opposing it. Now it seems it is trying to gain control over the entity. Or at least trying to paralyze it.

Democrats in Maine chose Troy Jackson as their new nominee for the Senate race in November, after Graham Platner dropped out following allegations of sexual assault, which he denies. Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former Maine Senate president, will take on five-term Republican Susan Collins. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a Senate majority.

Comment: Maine is the key state in the battle for the Senate. For now I know little about Troy Jackson, but I do plan to change that soon.

The Americas

A federal judge in New York set a June 2027 trial date for Nicolás Maduro, 200 days after American special forces captured Venezuela’s former leader and flew him to a Brooklyn jail. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, face drug-trafficking and weapons charges, which they deny. At the pretrial hearing his lawyers signaled they will argue that his capture was illegal and that he has immunity as a former head of state; oral arguments are scheduled for November.

Comment: this one will surely be fun to watch. The Trump admin is bound to make it a show and set an example. Prepare for a lot of drama with little substance.

Daniel Ortega said Nicaragua would “never” hold elections again, in effect cancelling polls scheduled for next year; parliament has moved to abolish them. Marco Rubio called on the international community to cut off Nicaragua, saying the regime “cannot expect to maintain business as usual”.

Comment: America continues to be heavily engaged in the Western Hemisphere's political affairs. And Nicaragua is rather low-hanging fruit.

Flávio Bolsonaro formally launched his campaign for Brazil’s presidential election in October, with endorsements from Javier Milei and Binyamin Netanyahu. “Bolsonaro’s blood flows here,” the senator said. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, was sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup.

Comment: Flavio Bolsonaro is battling a leak connecting him to a high-profile fraud investigation involving Daniel Vorcaro, a jailed banker. Despite the global swing to the right, he is not a favorite to win. But I do expect some help is on the way.

Asia

Foreign ministers from ASEAN’s 11 members met in Manila. The bloc discussed whether to readmit Myanmar’s military rulers to its high-level meetings for the first time since the 2021 coup; Thailand supports readmission, Singapore opposes it, and no consensus was reached. Border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia and tensions in the South China Sea were also on the agenda. Marco Rubio and his Chinese and Russian counterparts attended the broader security meetings.

Comment: nothing substantial happened at the summit. Rubio and Lavrov met to discuss the Ukraine war, but I don’t think any breakthrough was reached.

India’s education minister resigned after weeks of protests over leaked exam papers and youth unemployment, led by the Cockroach Janta Party — named after a judge likened unemployed youths to “cockroaches”. Some 180 protesters were injured in earlier clashes with police in Delhi. Protest leaders said they would end their demonstrations.

Comment: a small political crisis in India resolved as quickly as it started.

Perry Warjiyo resigned as governor of Indonesia’s central bank, two years before the end of his term. He had led the bank since 2018. His departure raises further questions about the bank’s independence: Prabowo Subianto has given the legislature more control over the bank and appointed his nephew as a deputy governor.

Comment: this doesn’t spark confidence in the Indonesian Rupiah, which has been falling against the dollar for quite some time.

Middle East & Africa

America bombed Iran over the course of the week. Trump threatened to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities “pretty soon”, and Pete Hegseth, his war secretary, told Congress the war has cost America $37.5 billion so far.

Yemen’s Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia. Tankers carrying Saudi crude reversed course in the Red Sea, and the militia later struck two Saudi tankers and the city of Jizan; Saudi Arabia retaliated against Houthi targets in the port city of Hodeida. Trump said he would hold Iran responsible and threatened “major military punishment”.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, warned that if Iran cannot export oil, “no one will sell oil” in the region, adding that the Strait of Hormuz would not return to pre-war conditions.

Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, after Trump told Axios he was considering a “massive attack” on Iran, “bigger than ever before”.

America then paused its attacks for two consecutive nights and Iran said it would stop “retaliatory operations”. Mike Waltz, America’s ambassador to the UN, said Trump was giving peace talks “some space”; senior military officials have reportedly warned that America risks running out of munitions. Brent fell 5% on the lull.

Iran said a Ukrainian attack on an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea killed a sailor, and urged European countries to hold Kyiv accountable to stop the war from widening. Netanyahu will meet Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

The Houthis continue to exchange strikes with Saudi Arabia despite the US-Iran pause. Most recently they hit the Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq.

Comment: my Iran war coverage is for paid subscribers only.

Saudi Arabia and America signed a deal to build a civilian nuclear program in the kingdom. The agreement, which Congress must review, would reportedly last 30 years and could allow American companies to build a uranium-enrichment facility there. A day later Trump said the deal is “totally subject” to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham accords and does not include “enrichment of material”. Saudi Arabia has refused to normalize ties with Israel without a serious path to a Palestinian state.

Comment: my Iran war coverage is for paid subscribers only.

Israel withdrew troops from three “pilot zone” villages in southern Lebanon and the Lebanese army deployed behind them, the first test of the US-brokered agreement. The Lebanese army has accused Israel of obstructing the handover with continued shelling; Netanyahu described the moves as “redeployments” rather than withdrawals.

Comment: we are still in the pilot phase. Not for long.

Europe

Volodymyr Zelensky sacked Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, after days of protests calling for the general’s ousting. Mykhailo Drapaty, the commander of Ukraine’s joint forces, will replace him. Demonstrators are also demanding the reinstatement of Mykhailo Fedorov, the defense minister dismissed last week; Zelensky said Fedorov would receive a “prominent position”.

Ukrainian drones struck seven warehouses belonging to Wildberries, Russia’s biggest online retailer, in the space of a week. Zelensky said he is “bringing the war back home” to Russia by targeting logistics hubs that supply drones and gear to its military. Russia said it attacked Ukraine’s port infrastructure and ships in response.

Alexander Novak, Russia’s deputy prime minister, said the government would maintain its ban on petrol exports until the end of the year and is considering extending its ban on diesel exports. Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries have caused fuel shortages, rationing and queues at petrol stations across Russia.

Comment: Zelensky continues to prove he is a sharp politician who can maneuver out of any crisis. At the same time, Ukraine achieves new successes thanks to targeting Russian supply chains rather than fighting on the front. However, we are all awaiting the next big move from Russia. I also do think it's coming—Putin needs a breakthrough this year, even if “only” a political one.

Andy Burnham began his premiership by promising to remove VAT from household electricity bills from October. Critics dismissed the £850m ($1.1bn) policy, which will save the average household £45 a year, as “unfunded”. Burnham insisted his government would maintain “fiscal discipline” while taking “a little bit of pressure off people’s shoulders”.

Comment: well, he is trying. But the UK is in a difficult spot that needs a bolder vision than removing VAT on electricity ahead of what will probably be the most expensive winter in recent European history.

France’s parliament passed a bill banning social media for children under 15, the first such law in the EU. Platforms must impose age-verification checks on new accounts from September and shut down accounts of underage users. Britain’s government has considered a similar law.

Comment: this is a setup to ban pseudonymous accounts in the future. I’m old enough to remember ACTA protests in Poland. And now the French are just next in line among nations giving away part of their power over the internet to the government…

Ozgur Ozel, the deposed leader of Turkey’s main opposition party, registered a new party to challenge Recep Tayyip Erdogan, taking 90 MPs with him from the CHP. Ozel was removed as CHP leader by a court in May, in what was widely seen as a political crackdown. Early polling puts his new party ahead of Erdogan’s AK Party.

Comment: I think it’s a bit too late to challenge Erdogan in open elections.

An intern at NATO’s military headquarters in Belgium was arrested for spying. Belgian authorities said the woman is a Canadian national of Chinese origin, suspected of spying for an undisclosed “third country” at SHAPE, the alliance’s command center in Mons.

Comment: spying Chinese interns are now in Europe after penetrating the US startup scene. It looks like China is expanding its covert ops capabilities with success. But jokes aside, it’s a major security breach. Who knows what the intern could really access or see…

Wildfires forced more than 300,000 people to flee their homes in France and Spain. Blazes reached the suburbs of Bordeaux, prompting France’s biggest peacetime evacuation since the second world war, while Spain declared its first national emergency over a wildfire as fires merged outside Madrid; one man died in Valencia. Sébastien Lecornu, France’s prime minister, said wildfires “have reached a level that has never been seen before”.

Comment: El Niño continues to destroy European crops. It will be a tough winter—expensive gas, electricity and food…

A car plowed into a crowd at a gay-pride event in Berlin, killing one person and injuring 29, in what authorities called an Islamist terrorist attack. The suspect was shot dead by police after a manhunt. Kai Wegner, the city’s mayor, described it as “an attack on our free and open society”. Germany has seen several similar attacks in recent years.

Comment: it’s been a while since the last one. Thankfully, this one was not as deadly.

Other

OpenAI said that GPT-5.6 Sol, a frontier model, and an unreleased model escaped a sandboxed testing environment and hacked into Hugging Face’s systems without being told to do so, going online and stealing login credentials after finding a zero-day vulnerability. Hugging Face said it used a Chinese model to defend itself because the guardrails on American models made them useless.

Comment: these are quite scary stories, unless they are partially misleading. Neither option is a good sign. The models are way more capable than a year ago and I can see it through my work. And supposedly the frontier labs have even better models that are unreleased.

SpaceX completed the 13th test flight of Starship, its first since the company’s IPO in June. The rocket deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites, and the ship’s splashdown was gentle enough that it floated intact on the ocean rather than exploding. SpaceX described it as its best re-entry yet.

Comment: finally! Whatever you think about Elon, I do want this one to progress and succeed.

The European Commission approved Paramount’s $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery, on the condition that it exits United International Pictures, its European distribution venture with Universal, within 13 months. Paramount also agreed to delay closing until June 2027 at the latest while a judge considers the antitrust lawsuit brought by twelve American states. Paramount said the claims “cannot withstand scrutiny”.

Comment: the timeline on the acquisition keeps stretching. But I do think that the Trump admin will push this one through.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’m working on a USMCA deep dive while I monitor the Clarity Act situation. Otherwise, we are all watching Iran.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! We have a champion. After over a month of trading, multiple knockout duels and one very long weather-dominated endgame, BeefSlayer_ is the HIVE World Cup winner. And he took the trophy while sitting on a negative P&L!

Maskache put up a good fight, but this time it simply wasn’t enough. Let’s break down the last day, the final numbers, and what the whole tournament looked like from start to finish.

Subscribe now

Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

Subscribe now

Best Trader of the Day

We know who’s the best now! Congrats BeefSlayer!

Share

Worst Trade of the Day

I’ll take it easy on Maskache today ;)

Finals

BeefSlayer_ vs Maskache

BeefSlayer_ and Maskache surprised us all with one thing—both traders ended the duel with a negative P&L, a first for both.

Maskache wasn’t able to make up a difference after a dismal first two days. He zeroed out in the end and lost it all trying to catch up with BeefSlayer. The latter must have felt very safe. He barely even traded and ended up with a negative $26 in P&L.

It could have been variance. It could have been fatigue. But we cannot deny that both traders deserved a place in the finals. Even the best traders have bad days. But they do have consistency:

Ultimately, Maskache made $6,831 while BeefSlayer is richer by $8,511. This is just from trading, not taking into account tournament prizes.

While the performance in the finals was choppy, you can clearly see that both traders more than 10x-ed their starting bankroll in a matter of weeks. This alone is an exceptional achievement.

Congratulations to BeefSlayer and Maskache! It was a pleasure to cover your duel.

Subscribe now

Wrap Up

That’s all! It was a pleasure to cover this tournament. I’ve seen incredible comeback stories and ultimate failures. I’ve tried to show you how different traders in the tournament approach risk and reward. And I tried to get the title myself, ending the tournament in the Round of 16.

Over month of fierce trading, covering new developments and watching the best prediction market traders trying to prove they deserve the title. I hope you had as much fun as I did.

Now, we’re back to regular programing. Until the next!

Stay strong and see you soon!

Subscribe now

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! We’ve made it to the last day of the HIVE World Cup, and the Finals have turned into a war of attrition rather than the shootout we were promised. BeefSlayer_ is clinging to a slim $16 in profit while Maskache is down $475 and neither trader produced a single call today worth handing an award to.

With less than 24 hours on the clock, let’s break down where the final duel stands and whether Maskache has any realistic path left to the trophy.

Subscribe now

Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

Subscribe now

Best Trade of the Day

No trade deserved the best trade of the day title—you got to try harder guys!

Share

Worst Trade of the Day

No signle trade deserves the price.

Finals

BeefSlayer_ vs Maskache

Both BeefSlayer_ and Maskache have a rather disappointing performance. BeefSlayer_ has just $16 in profit, while Maskache is down $475.

It’s been a tough final for the best weather traders. The weather gods have been especially cruel to Maskache, who can’t seem to correctly predict a single market. BeefSlayer_, looking at Maskache’s performance, might just be taking it easy.

With less than 24 hours to go Maskache has only $25. Can he make up the difference? We saw plenty of surprises throughout the tournament, but this one just seems too impossible.

Subscribe now

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! Two days ago I said that Maskache still has a shot at the championship. Today I’m not so sure. Do you think he still has a chance? Let us know in the comments

See you tomorrow for the final HIVE World Cup Recap where we will see who’s the winner!

Subscribe now

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! The Final duel is here. After weeks of eliminations, the HIVE World Cup has come down to two weather traders: BeefSlayer_ and Maskache. Day one is in the books, and BeefSlayer_ has drawn first blood while Maskache is already fighting from behind.

Let’s break down where the Finals stand and whether Maskache can claw his way back.

Subscribe now

Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

Subscribe now

Best Trade of the Day

No trade deserved the best trade of the day title—you got to try harder guys!

Share

Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day goes to Maskache:

He wrongly predicted the highest temperature in Seoul for $166 loss, giving BeefSlayer_ an early lead.

Finals

BeefSlayer_ vs Maskache

BeefSlayer_ has an early lead after a bad trade from Maskache. Both weather trader, however, got us used to much higher P&Ls. This contest is far from over and I expect Maskache to make up the difference soon.

Traders are competing for the main prize now and each trade counts. And with weather, we have dozens of markets daily making for a great show. Maskache can make up the loss in no time and be back in the game.

It’s the ultimate showdown between the top weather traders!

Subscribe now

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! The Finals opened with a stumble from Maskache, whose $166 miss on the highest temperature in Seoul handed BeefSlayer_ an early lead. But both of these traders have shown us far bigger P&Ls than this, and with dozens of weather markets resolving daily, there’s plenty of room for Maskache to erase the gap. This one is far from over.

Who’s your pick to be crowned HIVE World Cup Champion? My longtime favorite BeefSlayer_, or the resilient Maskache?

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

Subscribe now

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! The wait is over. The Semifinals are done and we know our two finalists. Both duels delivered, and one of them came down to a single trade that flipped everything with less than 24 hours to go. Now we’re left with two weather traders standing: BeefSlayer_ and Maskache.

Let’s break down how we got here and who’s got the better shot at lifting the trophy.

Subscribe now

Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

Subscribe now

Best Trade of the Semifinals

The best trade of the Semifinals goes to BeefSlayer_. He made $1,605 and then $869 the next day predicting the highest temperature in Seoul.

Congrats!

Share

Worst Trade of the Semifinals

The worst trade of the Semifinals goes to Joker_Poly:

He lost $2,075 wrongly predicting the outcome of an WNBA game and lost his duel with BeefSlayer_.

JokerPoly ends the tournament in the Semifinals with $2,919 in total profit. Congrats!

Semifinals

Joker_Poly vs BeefSlayer_

Joker_Poly went neck-to-neck with BeefSlayer_ until the last moment. Both traders had an amazing run, however JokerPoly lost it all on one WNBA prediction. That way we lost the last non-weather trader in the tournament.

BeefSlayer goes on the the Finals with $2,878 in profit. Congrats!

Subscribe now

Maskache vs WeatherOnly

WeatherOnly was in the lead at times, however he lacked some luck in the last day. After a series of bad weather predictions he lost almost the entire bankroll.

On the other hand, Maskache held steady and advanced to the Finals with $1,487 in profit. He will now match against BeefSlayer_ in the ultimate weather trader matchup.

Congrats!

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! The Semifinals gave us everything. BeefSlayer_ held his nerve after Joker_Poly threw it all away on one WNBA call, while Maskache stayed steady as WeatherOnly’s bankroll melted away. The last non-weather trader is out, and the Finals will show who’s the best out of the dominating caste of weather traders.

Who’s your pick to be crowned HIVE World Cup Champion? My longtime favorite BeefSlayer_, or the dominating Maskache?

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

Subscribe now

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

The Clarity Act market is another Trump-fueled soap opera. Every deal announcement makes the market rip up, while every leak about Trump's crypto dealings sends it off a cliff. The market went from as high as 81.5% to a low of 31.5%, to settle at 41.5% as of now.

Traders treat this market as any other legislation market. They are missing the bigger picture. There are bigger things at play here and preparations are already well underway. I’ve been building this thesis for a while and now I’m ready to share it.

What Is the Clarity Act?

The Clarity Act is a major part of a comprehensive crypto regulation push. It all started with the Genius Act. Signed last year, it provides the basis to regulate stablecoins. The two most important provisions specify:

1. Who can issue stablecoins.

2. What kind of collateral must be used when minting stablecoins.

In effect, it creates ground rules for stablecoin creation and issuance. Most importantly, it specifies that all stablecoins must be backed 1:1 with US Treasuries or cash. However, it stops at that and does not address the wider crypto market—while stablecoins are now a regulated product, the very infrastructure they rely on is still mostly unregulated.

This is where the Clarity Act comes in.

The Clarity Act goes a step further. It’s a comprehensive act that establishes a regulatory framework for the entire blockchain industry. It’s a pretty long piece of legislation that sets up rules for pretty much everything on crypto: tokens, NFTs, smart contracts, DeFi, you name it.

It divides jurisdiction over digital assets between the CFTC and the SEC, allowing for broad integration of digital assets into the overall financial system. If passed, this bill, in combination with the Genius Act, will permanently regulate the crypto industry. No more operating on guidance. No more overnight rule changes.

But you probably know that already.

Share

What Did You Miss (Probably)?

There are several facts and developments that are connected to the Clarity Act. In their totality they show a wider plan behind the legislation. When interests align, there’s a bigger dedication to push things through.

Read more

Welcome to another week! Nine nights of bombing, tankers ablaze, and Brent above $90. The war for the Strait is escalating fast. Some reports suggest a ground invasion could be coming. I won’t jump to such conclusions too soon, but tensions are definitely high.

Additionally, thanks to a new Substack feature, I have a small segment just for my paid subscribers in today’s article.

We had plenty of developments outside of the Iran war, so let’s look at prediction markets to make sense of the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Trump used a primetime White House address to accuse China of helping to rig America’s elections, blaming the deep state for covering up “China’s sinister election meddling” and releasing documents that supposedly prove his case. The Chinese embassy rejected the claims. ABC, CNN and NBC refused to air the speech live and now Trump wants their licenses revoked for it.

Comment: I think that the election interference narrative works well to motivate right-leaning voters. We should see more of that as midterms come closer. The market broadly agrees as chances of any license being revoked are at only 19%.

New York became the first state to freeze construction of large data centers. Anything drawing 50 megawatts or more is on hold for up to a year while officials work out a “regulatory framework”. Anti-data-center sentiment is spreading across America on environmental grounds, utility costs and general distrust of the technology.

Comment: the market spiked on the news, but it needs a proper bill rather than an executive order. Traders now see a 79% chance of a moratorium in any state by the end of the year, fueled by the first step New York made.

Some good news on inflation: the headline rate fell to 3.5% in June, from 4.2% in May, which is a steeper drop than expected, driven by cheaper gas. Core inflation eased to 2.6%. That takes some pressure off the Fed, though Kevin Warsh refused to declare “mission accomplished” and reiterated his commitment to the 2% target.

Comment: traders were a bit surprised by the newest inflation print, but they still expect annual inflation to be above 3.75%. Additionally, a hike is still largely expected:

United Airlines expects almost $6 billion in extra fuel costs this year thanks to geopolitical uncertainty. Fuel spending jumped 84% year on year in Q2. The airline still beat expectations with $17.7 billion in revenue, up 16%.

Comment: but the mainstream media will continue to convince you that all is good and there is no oil shortage. It’s going to get worse before it gets better.

Meta may rent computing power to Anthropic in a deal reportedly worth up to $10 billion over two years, according to the New York Times. Talks are at an early stage, but Zuckerberg has long hinted that Meta’s excess compute is for sale at some premium.

Comment: after the new Kimi model everyone understands that compute is not the bottleneck it used to be.

The Americas

Trump threatened Canada with additional tariffs over the smoke from hundreds of wildfires currently blowing into the US, accusing Ottawa of not properly maintaining its forests. Ontario’s premier Doug Ford called the threat unacceptable and suggested Republicans send help instead.

Comment: for Trump the wildfires are just another occasion to poke Canada. Same as Alberta independence or calling Trudeau the governor of the 51st state.

A 5.5-magnitude earthquake hit Peru’s Andes region, killing at least six people and displacing hundreds. Several buildings collapsed, including a 16th-century church.

Comment: additionally, we had massive storms in Chile, courtesy of El Nino.

Asia

China’s economy is sending mixed signals. Exports jumped 27% year on year in June to a record $412.4 billion. It’s the biggest increase since 2021, powered by AI hardware. Yet GDP grew just 4.3% in Q2, the slowest pace since 2022 and below Beijing’s target. Domestic demand and investment remain weak.

Comment: China also feels the effects of the Iran war.

Apple finally got Chinese regulators’ blessing to launch its AI services on iPhones in the world’s largest smartphone market. Apple Intelligence will run on models from Alibaba and Baidu.

Comment: China just secured a great opportunity for its models to improve through usage. American frontier labs do not really enjoy any significant lead over Chinese labs.

Australia announced it is working on sweeping AI regulations. The legislation, coming to parliament next year, promises copyright protection for artists and will force big data-center operators to underwrite new power supply. A new Office of Artificial Intelligence will oversee it all.

Comment: AI labs are actually welcoming the regulation as it solidifies their place at the top.

South Korea is opening up its currency. From 2027, foreigners will be able to open won accounts at foreign institutions, ending the requirement to route transactions through Korea — a bold step for a country that has long kept a tight grip on its FX markets.

Comment: do we really need more degens trading KOSPI?

Middle East & Africa

The war for the Strait entered its most violent phase yet.

Trump opened the week by declaring America the GUARDIAN of the Strait of Hormuz, reinstating the naval blockade of Iranian ports and proposing a 20% fee on all cargo passing through.

A day later he backtracked on the fee, saying Gulf states would make trade and investment deals with the US instead. The blockade stayed.

The bombing did too. America has now hit Iran for nine consecutive nights, targeting surveillance sites, air defenses, logistics and weapons storage, and threatened to go after power plants and bridges unless Iran gets to the table and negotiates.

Iran answered with missile and drone strikes on American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, and hit a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant. Two American servicemen were killed in Jordan on Friday and one is missing; a third was killed in Iraq over the weekend, taking the US death toll in the war to 17.

Shipping is caught in the middle of it all. The UAE said Iranian missiles struck two of its supertankers, killing a sailor; Iran later claimed two ships using an unsafe route had an accident and that the strait remains under its complete control. Traffic has collapsed and Brent passed $90.

Comment: I have a small update for my paid subscribers. Otherwise, I wrote an article on the recent Iran war developments, and recorded a video with my thoughts on the markets:

Houthi rebels fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia’s Abha airport after Saudi strikes on Sana’a’s airport, which were meant to stop a plane carrying a Houthi delegation home from Ali Khamenei’s funeral in Tehran. It is the first major Houthi–Saudi escalation since 2022.

Comment: I don’t think either side wants to fire up Yemen along with Lebanon. That said, if we have any surprises in Lebanon, closing the strait is very much in play.

Chevron signed preliminary deals for stakes in Iraq’s oil fields and joined a consortium studying a pipeline through Syria that would bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely. Trump also teased “massive” oil deals with Iraq.

Comment: this is all great news, but it won’t be up and running anytime soon. It doesn’t change anything for the ongoing Iran war.

Europe

It was a busy week for Ukraine, at the front and at home. At the coalition of the willing summit in Paris, Ukraine and nine European countries agreed to build a shared ballistic-missile defense for Europe, drawing on Ukraine’s experience.

Back in Kyiv, Zelensky reshuffled his government. Parliament confirmed Sergiy Koretsky, boss of state energy giant Naftogaz, as prime minister, with a mandate to focus on relations with America and the EU and on securing weapons.

The reshuffle came at a price. Protests broke out across the country after Zelensky sacked Mykhailo Fedorov, the popular defense minister behind Ukraine’s drone-warfare buildup. Zelensky said Fedorov kept clashing with the generals and that he had to choose between sides; Fedorov says his initiatives were blocked.

On the battlefield, Ukraine keeps squeezing Russia at sea, claiming 116 strikes on Russian ships in the Sea of Azov in nine days, including 11 last week. The waterway carries a quarter of Russia’s wheat exports; Lavrov called the campaign “terrorism, pure and simple”.

Russia hit back at the capital with one of its heaviest attacks in months — 41 missiles and 125 drones overnight on Sunday, killing at least one person and starting fires in five districts of Kyiv.

Comment: interesting, as Ukraine started to gain the initiative, Zelensky replaced the mastermind behind the new plan. Maybe the campaign is too effective and endangers the global oil supply. The Iran war surely takes precedence..

Andy Burnham was confirmed as Labour leader with the backing of 379 of the party’s 403 MPs and takes over from Keir Starmer on Monday. In his speech he said Britain took a wrong turn in the 1980s, when political power was centralized and economic power was privatized, promising devolution and public control over the cost of the essentials. No ministerial team yet.

He inherits a fragile economy. GDP grew 0.1% in May after an Iran-war-driven 0.1% contraction in April, with services doing all the work while production and construction fell.

He also inherits a tense country. Counter-terrorism police took over the investigation into the death of Ann Widdecombe, the Reform UK politician found dead in her home, after new information and evidence emerged. A 28-year-old man arrested earlier in the case has been rearrested on terrorism charges.

Lastly, Britain nationalized British Steel on national-security grounds, and China is not happy. Jingye, the Chinese owner since 2020, is demanding compensation, while Beijing warned the takeover will directly affect Chinese investors’ confidence in the country.

Comment: I’ve already commented a bit on the shape of the new Cabinet in my video. However, the nationalization of British Steel is an interesting decision. Europeans are clearly getting up to speed with what’s happening in the world and they are starting to take care of core industries.

Germany is raiding its climate fund. More than €30 billion ($34 billion) earmarked for heat pump and EV subsidies will be shifted to the federal budget or cancelled outright through 2030 as Merz tries to consolidate public finances.

Comment: Germany has big military ambitions nowadays. They need to finance them somehow.

Volkswagen may cut another 50,000 jobs, per an internal memo seen by Reuters, doubling planned cuts to 100,000 by 2030, 16% of the workforce. Years of falling sales, especially in China, are forcing Europe’s largest carmaker to shrink.

Comment: the fall of the German economy continues.

Other

Spain won the World Cup, beating Argentina 1-0. It took until the second half of extra time to break down the reigning champions, who finished the match with ten men. Trump handed over the trophy alongside FIFA’s controversial boss Gianni Infantino.

Comment: it was a great World Cup, despite low expectations.

Twelve states sued to block Paramount’s $111 billion takeover of Warner Bros Discovery, arguing it hands Paramount too much control over film distribution. The DOJ already approved the deal; the lawsuit could push it past its September 30th deadline, triggering a ticking fee owed to shareholders each quarter.

Comment: I wonder if Netflix had anything to do with it…

Wrap up

That’s all for today! This week comes my deep dive on the Clarity Act. Other than that, I’ll continue to monitor the Iran situation as we might be on the verge of a new chapter in this conflict.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! We're back after a short break and the timing couldn't be better. The Quarterfinals were rather calm as many duels had resolved way ahead of the end of the trading window. However, the Semifinals are completely different—all four traders are neck-and-neck and both duels remain unresolved with only 36 hours left on the clock.

Let’s break down who's got the better shot at the Finals.

Subscribe now

Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

Subscribe now

Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to BeefSlayer_. He made $1,605 correctly predicting the highest temperature in Seoul. However, it wasn't enough to take the lead in his duel—I expect to see even better trades tomorrow!

Congrats!

Share

Worst Trade of the Day

No bad trades in the Semifinals.

Semifinals

Joker_Poly vs BeefSlayer_

Joker_Poly is the only non-weather trader left in the tournament. And surprisingly, he’s ahead of BeefSlayer_, who’s been my favorite to win for a long time now.

Both traders have more than quintupled their starting bankrolls in what looks to be the toughest duel to date! For now, Joker_Poly is slightly ahead after tailing BeefSlayer_’s weather picks and a correct prediction of the World Cup final.

With 36 hours left, anything can happen!

Subscribe now

Maskache vs WeatherOnly

The second Semifinals duel is focused solely on weather markets. WeatherOnly is currently in the lead, but Maskache is only $35 behind him. This one will keep us on the edge of our seats until the final minute.

If anything, this is a confirmation that only the best traders have a place in the top four!

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! With both duels this tight and only 36 hours left on the clock, the Finals are still anyone’s game. Joker_Poly is proving a non-weather trader can hang with the best, while WeatherOnly and Maskache are separated by only $35.

Who’s your pick to lift the trophy? Are you riding with my longtime favorite BeefSlayer_, or betting on the Joker to keep defying the odds? I’ll shout out the sharpest calls in tomorrow’s recap.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

Subscribe now

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Escalation trap! Some analysts are ecstatic that they predicted a return to hostilities. Now, they go a step further predicting further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, including a US invasion of Iran (sic!). I wonder what they’ll say once it’s clear there’s no US invasion coming.

The mainstream view on the situation misses the bigger picture. They still think that the purpose of this war is to beat Iran! If they dared to challenge this assumption, they’d discover that there’s much more at play. But they are too entrenched in their own ways—don’t be like them. Subscribe and see what’s really going on.

The Iran War

Background

I have repeatedly said that Iran might strike shipping in response to the Lebanon framework agreement. It was signed just a few days after the MoU and showed the cunning side of American diplomacy. At its core, the Lebanon framework agreement was signed to cooperate in restoring Lebanon’s total sovereignty and enforcing the government’s monopoly on arms.

The MoU asked the US and its allies just that. But the Lebanon framework expanded these principles in a way that they target Hezbollah now. It is a twisted interpretation of the relevant MoU clause from Iran’s point of view. Thus, escalation was inevitable.

The MoU resulted in one big win for the US. In coordination with regional governments and international organization, it was able to restore a significant part of the traffic through the strait. We went from less than 10 vessels a day (or low 20s if we approximate dark transits) to over 60 vessels a day on the best post-MoU day.

Attempting to limit the traffic through the strait was Iran’s best bet to protect its interests.

The Aim of the War

The framework from my recent article is still the best explanation of the conflict:

Read more

Hey traders! With less than 24 hours to go, we still have one unresolved duel in the Quarterfinals. BeefSlayer_ still cannot feel safe against PMKFund, even though there’s over $600 difference between the two traders. If anything, this tournament has proved that no advantage is really safe as long as the other trader has some capital to trade.

Let’s see how is this duel going!

Subscribe now

Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

Subscribe now

Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to BeefSlayer_. He made $244 correctly predicting the highest temperature in Toronto.

Congrats!

Share

Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day goes to PMKFund.

He became active yesterday to catch up with BeefSlayer_, but this time he lost $204 on the World Cup mentions market. Now there’s over $600 between the two traders with less than 24 hours until the end of the Quarterfinals.

Quarterfinals

Joker_Poly vs thonka

Nothing new in this duel. Joker_Poly is now safe as thonka lost almost everything.

Subscribe now

Maskache vs Rex416

Same story as above. However, Maskache is still trading—it’s pure love of the game.

Raskell vs WeatherOnly

WeatherOnly also did a trade with Raskell out of the game. Weather traders are simply built different.

Subscribe now

PMKFund vs BeefSlayer_

In the last unresolved duel, BeefSlayer_ is trying to put as much distance as possible between himself and PMKFund. PMKFund became active yesterday, however with mixed results.

With less than 24 hours left the gap between the two traders is huge. Can PMKFund make it? Or is it the end of his strategic patience approach?

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! With 24 hours to go, one duel still remains unresolved—we expect a lot of action as both traders are trying to advance to the Semifinals.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

Subscribe now

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! What a day it was in the Hive World Cup. Out of four duels in the Quarterfinals, only one is left—two additional traders zeroed out in the last 24 hours, leaving us with only one duel to follow.

This astonishing turn of events was possible thanks to Spain, which surprisingly beat France 2-0 in the World Cup Semifinals.

Let’s see who who is safe and bid farewell to some Hive World Cup legends!

Subscribe now

Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

Subscribe now

Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to Joker_Poly, who correctly predicted that Israel would enact military exemption for Yeshiva students. Buying Yes shares for only 7.6c allowed him to make $732 profit and secured a place in the Semifinals.

Congrats!

Share

Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day title goes to Raskell:

He lost $470 wrongly predicting the outcome of the France vs Spain World Cup game. This way he effectively lost the duel and finished his incredible run in the Quarterfinals with $3,672 in total profit.

Congrats!

Quarterfinals

Joker_Poly vs thonka

Joker_Poly is another trader who can feel safe. Not only did he win the best trade of the day, but also thonka lost another $220 on the France vs Spain World Cup game market.

This way, another duel is now effectively over. Congrats!

Subscribe now

Maskache vs Rex416

Despite securing a victory over Rex416, Maskache continues to trade weather, making $600 in just two days of trading.

Congrats!

Raskell vs WeatherOnly

WeatherOnly played it safe yesterday and now he can celebrate. Raskell lost it all on a wrong prediction, getting the worst trade of the day title as a parting gift.

Congrats!

Subscribe now

PMKFund vs BeefSlayer_

Thanks to the surprising result of the France vs Spain World Cup game, this is the last duel in which anything can change. BeefSlayer_ is currently in the lead with $212 in profit. He is trying to counter PMKFund’s strategic patience and avoid an outsized loss.

Now PMKFund will be forced to take on some risk. Will he manage to overtake BeefSlayer_? That’s the last question we need answered in these Quarterfinals.

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! We have only 48 hours left and our eyes are all on PMKFund and BeefSlayer_—who will take the final spot in the Semifinals and who will be forced to say goodbye?

Maybe we will now tomorrow.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

Subscribe now

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! After only 24 hours of the Quarterfinals we already have one trader down. Elite 8 is not for the faint of heart—one mistake can make all the difference. That being said, the remaining three duels are as competitive as it can get. There is no clear favorite and we expect plenty to happen in the next 72 hours.

Let’s see who can already be safe!

Subscribe now

Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

Subscribe now

Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to Maskache, who made $362 predicting the highest temperature in Seoul to win his duel and advance to the Semifinals.

Congrats!

Share

Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day goes to Rex416:

He managed to lose it all by wrongly predicting a tennis match outcome for a $616 loss. Rex416 ends the tournament with over $4,000 in total profits, but a loss like that must hurt. Especially at the very beginning of the Quarterfinals.

Round of 16

Joker_Poly vs thonka

After beating me in the Round of 16, Joker_Poly continues to dominate. With $319 in profit he is well ahead of thonka, who after wrongly predicting an MLB game is dow $67.

However, this duel is far from over. Both traders have already proved that they can turn their fate and with three days left, anything can happen.

Subscribe now

Maskache vs Rex416

This cannot be said about this duel. Rex416 has lost it all wrongly predicting a tennis match and Maskache will now advance to the Semifinals!

What an incredible turn of events! Rex416 started off strong, but just one wrong prediction put him out of the race. Maskache will face either Raskell or WeatherOnly in three days. In the meantime he can rest and enjoy the weather.

Raskell vs WeatherOnly

WeatherOnly made $234 in the first day of trading and seems to feel safe enough to not trade now. However, Raskell has barely even started. Less than $5 in profit is not something he got us used to.

I fully expect Raskell to go big in the next 72 hours and give WeatherOnly a run for his money.

Subscribe now

PMKFund vs BeefSlayer_

A similar story is unfolding in the last duel. BeefSlayer_, a top weather trader, is up $151 after the first day, while PMKFund made $12 on a single trade and for now stays silent.

PMKFund is now famous for taking his time and waiting for his opponents to make mistakes. However, BeefSlayer_ has proved that he can be in the green every round. Is this the end of PMKFund and his strategic patience? Or will we see some revelations by the end of the Quarterfinals? Let us know in the comments!

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! The competition is fierce with one trader out after the first 24 hours. However, anything can happen in the remaining three duels.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

Subscribe now

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! It was a tense week. We are back to strikes in the Persian Gulf while the NATO summit in Ankara saw the continuation of the American soft-exit from the alliance. We also had a Chinese missile test and a surprising twist in the Ukraine war.

Domestically in the US, not only did Graham Platner dropped off the Senate race, but we also saw Lindsey Graham pass away. May the perpetual war hawk finally find some peace.

What can I say, there’s no rest in global affairs. Let’s take a look at the markets and make sense of the world.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Trump criticized European allies and revived his demand for Greenland at NATO summit in Turkey. He also said that both Russia and Ukraine want to make a deal to end the war.

Comment: let’s unpack it. Greenland is crucial for a comprehensive defense of the Western Hemisphere. It is also an important entry/exit from the North Pole. The deal on new bases and American military presence is coming, to be determined if this year. When it comes to Russia and Ukraine it’s true. Both sides want to make a deal. But a different one. While Putin is obviously in a worse position than a year ago, the summer offensive is not yet here and it can change the calculus. We now need to wait and see.

America will grant Ukraine the right to make Patriots.

Comment: I just said to not trust peace rumors. Here you have another confirmation. Ramping up production takes time, it’s a long-term deal.

Lindsey Graham died aged 71, probably from a cardiac arrest. His office said it was a brief and sudden illness. He had recently returned from a trip to Ukraine.

Comment: maybe now he will know peace. Also, there’s nothing conspiratorial about his death.

Graham Platner dropped out of the race for a Senate seat in Maine. His campaign was riddled by controversies, but sexual assault allegations were the final straw. While he denies any wrongdoing, Democrats will have to find a new candidate now.

Comment: Democrats hope to win Maine as they are trying really hard to flip the Senate. Platner drama is quite a big bump on that road. While they are still the slight favorites, a lot will depend on the choice of the next candidate.

The 21st Century Road to Housing Act became law on Saturday. Trump refused to either veto or sign it, allowing it to automatically become law after 10 working days. It’s the first time in nearly a decade that legislation has passed without a presidential signature.

Comment: Trump wanted to tie the approval of the act with the SAVE America Act. However, he couldn’t be seen vetoing a housing-related act considering the dire state of the housing market. He chose a wrong battle.

Kevin Warsh named academics, business leaders and former central bankers to lead new task forces. His picks include Raj Chetty, a Harvard economist, Marc Andreessen, a venture capitalist, and Mervyn King, a former governor of the Bank of England. The groups will examine how policymakers approach data and analyze the drivers of inflation.

Comment: traders seem confident that we will get a rate hike by September with the market going slightly up on the news.

Apple sued OpenAI for stealing trade secrets. The lawsuit aims to show how former Apple employee that is now the chief of hardware in OpenAI has orchestrated a data-stealing scheme that run for months and involved OpenAI employees on every level.

Comment: corporate espionage is real. At first glance it looks like a big lawsuit that could have massive consequences for OpenAI. I’ll be following it closely.

Meta unveiled Muse Spark 1.1, a significant upgrade to its original AI model. The model is closer to frontier models in terms of performance, especially around coding.

Comment: by all accounts, Anthropic is still king. However, Meta, OpenAI and xAI are all closer than before.

Blue Origin, a SpaceX competitor run by Jeff Bezos, is looking to raise $10 billion in VC funding at $130 billion valuation. Blue Origin hopes to deploy a satellite internet service, akin to SpaceX’s Starlink, and beat Mr Musk to his latest moonshot: space-based AI data centers.

Comment: the battle of the tech elites. But in all seriousness, while Bezos is now well behind Musk, the gap will be closed eventually. And competition is always good in frontier tech.

The Americas

Cuba’s national electric grid collapsed. Some generators have been restarted, but the country has been struggling with daily blackouts for months now. Energy minister recently warned that the grid was in a critical state.

Comment: the American pressure continues, however I’ll stop before calling any developments imminent. The country has been in crisis mode for months now. But neither blockades nor air strikes can fully topple a regime. If anything, we should expect a Venezuela model here—meaning a soft regime change. Probably some administration officials are already talking with the Cuban version of Delcy Rodriguez.

Asia

China’s navy said it fired a ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean as part of routine training. The missile landed in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, an area covering Australia, New Zealand and South Pacific islands.

Comment: it’s most likely a test of a new missile. China is not North Korea, it does not need to show strength in that way.

Factory-gate prices in China rose by 4.1% y/y in June, the biggest increase in nearly four years.

Comment: it’s an early sign of struggle in the economy caused by the Iran war. Traders still see inflation lower than 4.5% this year, but the next few months can really change the outlook. It all depends on how much they will massage the data in the coming months.

Australia will export uranium to India for use in its nuclear-energy industry. Modi visited Australia recently to seal the deal. The two countries also agreed to further cooperation on defense.

Comment: Team West is looking to integrate India in its broad structures. It’s yet another sign that this relationship is progressing.

Middle East & Africa

This week we saw massive escalation in the Middle East. After a promising upsurge in the Strait of Hormuz traffic, Iran struck two ships trying to cross the strait, beginning the whole confrontation.

The US targeted various sites across the country in response. The exchange of fire lasted pretty much the whole week, escalating with each round of strikes. Iran targeted military bases across the region, while Americans have reportedly struck energy infra in Iran.

Trump declared the ceasefire effectively over during the NATO summit. Tensions continue to hold as I write this article.

Comment: surprisingly I had no long-form content on the Iran war last week! But to give you a small update, this is a direct result of the Lebanon framework. The Strait of Hormuz was partially open on the understanding that Lebanon would be left alone. Since it wasn’t, Iran responded in kind.

I expect the Lebanon issue to escalate post the diplomatic meeting this week (with a possible action post Lebanon White House meeting on the 21st of July). If it happens, the MoU is dead and the reinstatement of the US blockade becomes even more likely:

Israel dismissed Hamas’s announcement that it would hand over some of its powers to run Gaza to an American-backed body. However, it didn’t commit to disarmament—they said that Israel controls too much territory of Gaza to allow for that to happen.

Comment: as long as there’s no resolution to the Iran war, the Gaza deal will not progress.

Europe

Several European countries launched a $50 billion project to develop long-range missiles over the next decade without American involvement. Most of the key European countries are involved, however Poland is a surprising miss considering its position.

Comment: Europeans are at least a decade late. While the European industry is more than capable of developing a high-end ballistic missile, at this point they should tap into the Ukrainian expertise to streamline the project. Until it happens, it’s just a nice headline, something European elites mastered to perfection.

Germany agreed to buy American Tomahawk missiles. Additionally, it seems that Germany is looking to lead NATO in the midst of the US soft-exit from the alliance.

Comment: since the US cannot formally exit NATO without a Congressional approval, the Trump admin is doing everything it can to lessen its involvement in the alliance. With the power vacuum present, Germany, France and the UK will fight to lead the alliance. But it does seem that Germany is the designated successor when it comes to the NATO structures.

A French appeals court upheld Marine Le Pen’s conviction for misappropriating European Parliament funds. However, it reduced her sentence to three years in prison, with two suspended and one under house arrest with an electronic ankle monitor. That allows her to stand in next year’s presidential election, which she confirmed she is doing, sending waves across the French political scene.

Comment: with Bardella no more, Marine Le Pen is now the favorite to win the upcoming French presidential election. However, she did promise that Bardella will be the prime minister under her.

Under mounting investigations, Nigel Farage resigned as an MP, only to win it back in the by-election. He said the election would cast the people versus the establishment. However, other parties refused to take part in this farce.

Comment: it’s more of a media happening than a real election.

Other

Nothing to report.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I hope to have a deep dive for you this week along with a video on some of the latest developments.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! Welcome after the weekend. As we took the well-deserved time off, traders had the end of the Round of 16 and worked hard to advance to the quarterfinals.

Let’s see who made it!

Subscribe now

Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

Subscribe now

Best Trade of the Round

The best trade of the round goes to WeatherOnly. He correctly predicted the highest temperature in Amsterdam for $445 in profit and the first place in the duel!

Congrats!

Share

Worst Trade of the Round

The worst trade of the round goes to aenews:

While he did predict correctly that Argentina will win with Switzerland, he traded the full-time game market vs team to advance market. The 90 minutes ended in a draw and aenews proceeded to lose $672 in the process.

This ended aenews’s run in the tournament, which he ends with $812 total profit + winnings from advancing to the top 16.

Round of 16

Joker_Poly vs PROPHET

Joker_Poly didn’t trust me when I said that I aim to trade in the last day and he was good for it. Ultimately, I lacked the time to properly focus on the Round of 16 and Joker_Poly advanced to the Quarterfinals with $207 in profit.

Congrats!

Subscribe now

Maskache vs ClydeCash

Maskache won the duel well in advance as ClydeCash zeroed out trying to catch up with this pro weather trader.

Congrats!

Raskell vs OnlyLuckNoBrain

The last day of trading was not so lucky for OnlyLuckNoBrain. After a great run, he finally ended his supply of luck and ended up $118 in the red. Raskell saw that early and decided to not risk anything anymore with $295 in profit.

Now Raskell is in, trying to beat weather traders. Congrats!

Subscribe now

HondaCivic vs PMKFund

PMKFund’s strategic patience continues to pay off. He barely traded against the well-known weather trader HondaCivic. However, HondaCivic finally had a bad streak after making absurd amount of profit in the previous rounds.

This time he ultimately erased his bankroll and PMKFund can continue implementing his strategy in the Quarterfinals. Congrats!

BeefSlayer_ vs whiggeries

whiggeries had no chance against the top weather trader, BeefSlayer_. The latter made $1,456, more than $1,000 more than the former, guaranteeing himself a place in the Quarterfinals.

With HondaCivic and 0X357 gone, BeefSlayer_ and Maskache are my favorites to iwn the whole tournament.

Congrats and godspeed!

Share

bernardbulletin vs WeatherOnly

bernardbulletin had an incredible run, but ultimately he needed to admit that this tournament belongs to the weather traders. WeatherOnly really took off in the last day of trading, making $1,103 vs $634 by bernardbulletin.

Congrats to WeatherOnly!

aenews vs Rex416

aenews tried his best, but Rex416 was simply too good. In the end, aenews tried to go all in, but it backfired. Rex won the whole round with $1,664 in profit.

In an absolutely killer performance, Rex416 advances to the Quarterfinals—congrats!

Subscribe now

Fuentes 99 vs thonka

Fuentes99 and thonka went head-to-head for majority of the Round of 16. However, at the very end Fuentes99 tried to make it big and failed, erasing majority of his bankroll in the process.

With $465 in profit, thonka advanced to the quarterfinals. Congrats!

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! Only eight best traders are left now. Quarterfinals are going to be a real show of skill as the elite 8 competes for the spots in the Semifinals.

Did your favorite make it? Let us know in the comments.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

Subscribe now

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! It’s been a busy day. Two traders had a string of bad luck and ended up with most of their bankroll deleted. But the other six duels are still on and with 36 hours left anything can happen!

Let’s see who has it easy now and who still needs to work to advance to the Quarterfinals!

Subscribe now

Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

Subscribe now

Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to BeefSlayer_, who made over $350 predicting the lowest temperature in Miami. He has more than tripled his bankroll now and tops the global leaderboard in the Round of 16.

Congrats!

Share

Worst Trade of the Day

HondaCivic gets the worst trade of the day second day in the row!

In the last 24 hours we have seen one bad decision after another from this weather trader. He had his biggest loss to date yesterday, losing $180 by wrongly predicting the highest temperature in London. But he also managed to add to it other losses, including wrongly predicting the Spain vs Belgium World Cup game outcome.

His chances to qualify to the Quarterfinals are slim now, but he already made almost $2,000 in the competition, one of the highest P&Ls we’ve seen.

Round of 16

Joker_Poly vs PROPHET

Despite promising, I didn’t find time to trade yesterday and now I have $238 to make before I’m even with Joker_Poly. He is slowly building his P&L and with only 36 hours left, I might need to risk a lot to try and get back in the game.

Subscribe now

Maskache vs ClydeCash

Maskache had a rather rough day on the weather market, but his opponet had it even worse. ClydeCash lost it all on the combination of bad World Cup predicting and worse Elon tweet forecasting.

Maskache has effectively secured his place in the Quarterfinals—congrats!

Raskell vs OnlyLuckNoBrain

OnlyLuckNoBrain and Raskell are playing small stakes. Neither trader breached $100 in profit, or in loss. This is quite surprising as Raskell made us used to him making mutiples of his bankroll in a matter of days.

With 36 hours to go it is impossible to call the duel, but we are pretty sure that we will have plenty of wild trades to report tomorrow.

Subscribe now

HondaCivic vs PMKFund

After an amazing run in this tournament, the weather gods have ultimately turned away from HondaCivic. He continued his losing streak into the night to end up with just $70 in his bankroll.

PMKFund’s patience definitely paid off as he is now looking to advance to the Quarterfinals without making any trade in the Round of 16. However, with weather traders it’s never safe to call it until the time is up. HondaCivic might still make a comeback.

BeefSlayer_ vs whiggeries

whiggeries is trying to prove that weather traders have a match in this tournament, but BeefSlayer_ is simply trading on another level. With $1,228 in profit he is on the top of the global leaderboard.

whiggeries has a huge gap to bridge now, but with $455 in profit his performance is top notch anyway. There can only be 1 winner in this tournament.

Share

bernardbulletin vs WeatherOnly

bernardbulletin has barely clung to his lead as WeatherOnly is trying his best to advance to the Quarterfinals. Both traders have exchanged lead a couple of times already and the last 36 hours are bound to be extremely interesting in this duel.

aenews vs Rex416

aenews has not faced a trader like Rex416 yet in the Hive World Cup. Usually a couple hundred dollars in profit was enough to advance to the next round. This time, however, Rex416 is showing him how it’s done with a cool $804 in profit.

Can aenews beat that? We’ll see if he has the risk appetite to go in big.

Subscribe now

Fuentes 99 vs thonka

Both Fuentes99 and thonka are trading sports markets, but it’s thonka who has the upper hand. Fuentes99 focuses on the World Cup, while thonka is all in on the MLB. With one World Cup game left till the end of the Round fo 16, Fuentes99 must make it big or go home.

We’ll see if he can make it, but we are sure he will try!

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! With 36 hours left, 2 out of 8 duels seem to be already resolved. But overall, traders are much closer to each other than before. It’s clear that the level of the competition is extremely high.

Who’s you favorite now? Let us know in the comments!

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

Subscribe now

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! It’s been 36 hours since the Round of 16 started and we already have some traders who managed to double their bankroll. Additionally, no trader is down a lot, which made it hard to choose the worst trade of the day!

With only the top 16 traders left the level of competition has risen substantially. And surprisingly, weather traders do not have it so easy as they compete with some of the absolute best political and sports traders.

Let’s see who managed to get an early lead!

Subscribe now

Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

Subscribe now

Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to bernardbulletin, who correctly predicted that Graham Platner would drop out of the Maine election for $300 profit early in the duel. Congrats!

Thanks to that, he now has a chance to beat WeatherOnly, one of the weather traders dominating the tournament.

Share

Worst Trade of the Day

With only the top 16 traders left, bad trades happen less often. However, we still do see some of them—short-term form of the tournament forces traders to take more risk sometimes. Today, it’s HondaCivic who ended up on the wrong side of variance:

He lost $84 wrongly predicting the highest temperature in the NYC. This is probably the best of the worst trades to date, but hey, someone needed to get this title ;)

Round of 32

Joker_Poly vs PROPHET

Joker_Poly took an early lead in our duel. While I’ve been inactive, Joker_Poly made $127 trading esports and box office markets. I definitely need to start trading, otherwise the difference will grow too large by tomorrow!

Subscribe now

Maskache vs ClydeCash

Maskache continues to prove that he is one of the best traders in the tournament. After only 36 hours, he managed to make $631 trading weather markets. ClydeCash is trying to give him a good run for his money. However, $115 in profit is not enough against this weather trader.

We do expect further action in this duel as ClydeCash has repeatedly shown that he is not afraid to go big.

Raskell vs OnlyLuckNoBrain

OnlyLuckNoBrain had a tough start. The weather gods were not kind to him and they sit on $106 loss after 36 hours of the Round of 16. Raskell is also trying out weather markets, along with his usual trades on the World Cup.

Raskell is in a slight lead with $52 in profit. However, we know that both traders can do a lot better and we expect more action in the next 2.5 days.

Subscribe now

HondaCivic vs PMKFund

PMKFund continues his strategy of patience. With no trade done, he currently leads as HondaCivic had a rather rough day on weather markets. With $123 loss he has little time to build an advantage over the unpredictable PMKFund.

BeefSlayer_ vs whiggeries

whiggeries is trying his best trading political markets against one of the top weather traders, BeefSlayer_. whiggeries managed to make $373, however it was not enough.

BeefSlayer_ tops the global leaderboard this round with $757 profit already! 2.5 days remain to see if there’s any stopping to the absolutely dominating weather traders.

Share

bernardbulletin vs WeatherOnly

bernardbulletin is also not giving up against another weather trader. He made $384 trading Graham Platner markets for a slight lead over WeatherOnly.

With only $73 between the two traders it shapes up to be one of the most competitive duels of this round.

aenews vs Rex416

Rex416 does not feel intimidated by trading agains tone of the Polymarket OGs, aenews. With $517 in profit from a wide variety of markets, they are well ahead of aenews, who managed to make $121 in 36 hours.

Duels last only four days, making each small decision count and Rex416 proves that he can make tough decisions under pressure.

Subscribe now

Fuentes 99 vs thonka

Fuentes99 is off to a bad start. The single trade he made backfired and now he needs to make up $87 just to break even. In the meantime, thonka is trading sports, and despite some losses, he is $64 in the green.

However, we know that Fuentes99 is not afraid to go big. This lead is too little to call the race, especially with 2.5 days left.

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! The Round of 16 is off to a rather slow start. However, we expect it to fire up today as traders will try to make big moves to lock in their current advantage. Tomorrow’s recap will show who managed to do that and who needs to fight till the last minute.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

Subscribe now

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! The last 24 hours of the Round of 32 were extremely volatile. Traders tried their best to change their fate and advance to the Round of 16. Some succeeded, while others erased their bankroll in the process.

This trading frenzy coincided with an astonishing dispute on Cristiano Ronaldo to cry during World Cup market, which heavily impacted some of the duels.

Let’s see who made it to the top 16!

Subscribe now

Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

Subscribe now

Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day (and round!) goes to PMKFund, who managed to win his duel in the last hours of trading.

Amazing, if a bit lucky performance. Congrats!

Share

Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day (and the round!) goes to CoffeLover_pm:

After a great run against Raskell he resorted to full-porting World Cup markets in order to get an advantage. In the beginning it went well, ultimately though it was too much risk.

Congrats for the great overall performance!

Round of 32

Mirza vs PROPHET

This duel was settled yesterday after Mirza lost it all wrongly predicting the outcome of the US vs Belgium World Cup game. I made a small trade on the Argentina vs Egypt game, which almost went against me, but ultimately I end the round with a small profit of $6.

In the next round I will trade against Joker_Poly in what shapes up to be my toughest challenge so far.

Subscribe now

Maskache vs Mosesfan

Maskache enjoyed a huge lead a took it easy in the last day of trading. Mosesfan tried their best, but ultimately he fell short and changed his nick to Maskachefan in tribute to the winner of the duel.

Now Maskache will face ClydeCash in the Round of 16—congrats!.

Raskell vs CoffeeLover_pm

CoffeLover_pm and Raskell were going head-to-head on the last 24 hours of trading. Both traders had over $1,000 in profit making it the most competitive duel in the Round of 32.

Ultimately, CoffeLover_pm took too much risk and ended up $465 in the red. Raskell will now face OnlyLuckNoBrain in the Round of 16. Congrats!

Subscribe now

0X357 vs PMKFund

In a shocking turn of events, 0X357, who’s been consistently at the top of the global leaderboard all throughout the tournament has been eliminated by PMKFund.

PMKFund went all in on the Ronaldo to cry during the World Cup market on Yes just before the clarification, netting $1,558. 0X357 tried to make up the difference, however the weather gods were not kind to him today.

One of my favorites to win the tournament is out and PMKFund will trade against HondaCivic in the Round of 16. Congrats!

BeefSlayer_ vs 0xd1namit

0xd1namit conceded the duel yesterday and BeefSlayer_ advances to the Round of 16 with a respectable $876 profit.

He will trade against whiggeries now to advance to the quarterfinals. Congrats!

Share

bernardbulletin vs Splunksy

Some traders just want it too much sometimes. It was brought to my attention that Splunksy cheated in the last day of trading by setting up another wallet and trading against himself to get an advantage.

I am told that Splunksy will be disqualified from the tournament and bernardbulletin will advance to the Round of 16.

Congrats to bernardbulletin, who will now face WeatherOnly in the Round of 16!

aenews vs wisechinamann

This duel kept us on the edge of our seats till the last minute. With less than an hour to go, wisechinamann held a slight lead over aenews after correctly predicting the Ronald market. However, aenews didn’t give up and after successfully trading some MLB markets he ended up $7 ahead of wisechinamann for the win.

What a duel! Now aenews will face Rex416 in the Round of 16. Congrats!

Subscribe now

Fuentes 99 vs xeny-

After three days of inactivity, xeny- decided to fight for his place in the Round of 16. However, the esports and MLB predictions didn’t go his way and he ended up $378 in the red

Fuentes99, despite losing part of his profits yesterday, advanced to the Round of 16 and will trade against thonka. Congrats!

sonix vs thonka

This duel ended yesterday after sonix lost it all on the US vs Belgium World Cup game.

thonka advanced to the Round of 16. Congrats!

Share

Rex416 vs attenonthephone

atteonthephone and Rex416 also kept us on the edge of our seats. The former must have went to sleep thinking $1,670 in profit is enough to qualify. However, Rex416 didn’t give up and ended up making $2,319 on a mix of esports, World Cup and MLB markets.

Congrats!

WeatherOnly vs green

Weather traders are simply too good. green, after seeing he is matched against WeatherOnly, who made over $400 in the first day, gave up:

I don’t blame him. The short-term format of the tournament really favors weather traders, who seem to be able to print astonishing amount of money on a daily basis

Congrats to WeatherOnly, maybe he will find his equal in bernardbulletin!

Subscribe now

Kween vs whiggeries

Kween is another trader who will wake up to a bad surprise. This weather trader thought nothing can change the outcome. However, whiggeries didn’t want to give up and full-ported the Ronaldo to cry market for $972 profit.

Sometimes you just need a bit of luck. Congrats to whiggeries!

n0rulesnvr vs HondaCivic

n0rulesnvr put up a good fight, but it was no mach for the top weather trader HondaCivic. This duel ended yesterday, after n0rulesnvr conceded the fight.

Congrats to HondaCivic!

Subscribe now

PeterParker3Hive vs OnlyLuckNoBrain

This is the only duel that ended with both traders being in the red! PeterParker3Hive had no chance to qualify agains tour lucky trader after losing the entire bankroll. But OnlyLuckNoBrain did trade some and managed to lose less than $1 to give us this shocking and funny outcome.

Congrats!

Arrth vs ClydeCash

ClydeCash only increased his lead in the last day of trading. Arrth also traded some, but ultimately he was no match for the versatile ClydeCash.

Congrats!

Subscribe now

strider_pm vs Joker_Poly

In the final duel we also saw some last minute action. After three days of inactivity, strider_pm tried his luck trading weather and World Cup markets. He made $239, but it was not enough to beat Joker_Poly.

Our winner traded the same mix of markets, but was simply better, thanks to his performance in the days before. Congrats!

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! The Round of 16 starts in 11 hours, giving us little time to rest. But with the top 16 left, the intensity must go up. Are you ready for the final stratch?

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

Subscribe now

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to the 19th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.

For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.

By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.

Summary

June was a wild month, but this time I was ready:

1. I started June with $19,221 in my portfolio.

2. Today my portfolio stands at $22,060.

3. There were no additional capital injections.

4. Total ROIC is 14.8% for the month and for 3% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.

5. All bankroll allocations are on the basis of starting bankroll.

The Good

The best news (at least for my psyche) is that PROPHET NOTES is now in the green for the year. The plan this year was to double the bankroll and with all the lessons 2026 brought, I can say I’m on track to achieve that. Especially since I’m back to fully trusting my research and my gut.

The majority of my gains came from the Strait of Hormuz markets. Despite having a complete thesis and model for the Iran war, I’m sticking to the markets that have resolutions grounded in the reality. I’ve been burnt enough trying to play Trump’s yapping and I’m better off leaving this to swing traders. My deal-related holdings in June were minimal.

Additionally I have a great pipeline of new research that should keep me (and you) busy through the next couple of months.

The Bad

I should have put more on the US not winning the World Cup! But jokes aside, it was a great month. Even though I was extremely busy, the overall result is great. I have nothing to add here besides that I’m looking to keep up the good mental state and great execution that I had in June

Bankroll Comments

I have 45% of my bankroll available for trading. I’t a good improvement vs end of May, but I’m still below my sweet spot when it comes to the utilization. However, with a good research pipeline I’m aiming to allocate at least 15% towards new markets and keep the 30% for unexpected occasions.

Wrap Up

That’s all for today. As I’ve said before, new research is coming, but I need to keep you in the dark for just a bit longer before I can tease what it is.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! It’s been a crazy day. Since yesterday a lot of traders have made some risky trades. With less than two days left, they must have felt that it is the last moment to make it big.

Some have managed to absolutely kill it, while others lost it all in the process. If I had to point to one market that made the most difference, it’s the US vs Belgium World Cup game. After an incredible run by America, losing 4-1 to Belgium came as a shock, not only for the players, but also for traders.

With 24 hours left let’s see who made it big!

Subscribe now

Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

Subscribe now

Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day title goes to Maskache. He made $1,276 predicting the highest temperature in Shenzhen. Only wether traders can make so much in such a short time.

Congrats!

Share

Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day title goes to Mirza:

Despite enjoying a $311 lead over his opponent, this trader decided to risk it all on the US vs Belgium World Cup game and is left with nothing as a result.

While he needs to bid farewell to the tournament, he is leaving with a respectable $500 in profit from the tournament. Congrats!

Round of 32

Mirza vs PROPHET

In a surprising turn of events, Mirza lost his lead and is now $493 in the red, effectively losing his entire bankroll! While I’ve been inactive, Mirza traded the US vs Belgium World Cup game, predicting that the US will win.

While I admire the confidence, Belgium bested the host and with 24 hours of trading left, I’m in the lead!

Subscribe now

Maskache vs Mosesfan

Maskache had a killer day on prediction markets. He went as high as $3,000 in profit, to finally settle at $1,316. Weather trading, while volatile, is an extremely lucrative strategy for some of the traders we see in the tournament.

Mosesfan, with no edge in weather markets, can do little to achieve such a great result. With a very respectable $158 in profit from just three days of trading, he will need to wave goodbye to the tournament soon.

Raskell vs CoffeeLover_pm

CoffeLover_pm and Raskell have both been trading World Cup markets to try and get an advantage. Both ended up going head to head for majority of the time, more than tripling their starting bankroll in the process. In the last couple of hours, however, CoffeLover_pm fell behind Raskell, who now has a staggering $1,683 in profit to top the global leaderboard.

It’s a truly astonishing performance from both traders. It feels like a foretaste of the final! It will be a shame to bid farewell to either one of them.

Subscribe now

0X357 vs PMKFund

0X357, contrary to Mirza from the first duel, knew when to take it easy. After making $1,234 predicting weather across the world, he stopped trading as PMKFund is inactive and extremely unlikely to make up the difference.

With 24 hours to go some of the duels already have a clear winner.

BeefSlayer_ vs 0xd1namit

BeefSlayer_ is another weather trader who has absolutely dominated the tournament. 0xd1namit had a great run, and there’s probably nothing more that I can say that he hasn’t said himself:

Share

bernardbulletin vs Splunksy

Bernardbulletin is proving that he is a versatile trader. After a dismal start, bernardbulletin, lacking his favorite election markets, has focused on mention markets. He managed to reverse his fortune and doubled the starting bankroll in the process.

Splunksy probably thought that $245 profit is enough to cruise to the Round of 16. After all, he’s been inactive since yesterday. Now, however, he will need to turn back to weather markets in hopes he can make enough to overtake bernardbulletin.

aenews vs wisechinamann

After meeting on the opposite side of one trade, wisechinamann opted for patience as he had over $200 lead over aenews. However, the OG trader managed to cut the lead down to $60.

This is a gap that can be easily closed. The last 24 hours will be crucial for this duel and we will only know the winner once the round ends.

Subscribe now

Fuentes 99 vs xeny-

Both xeny- and Fuentes99 are inactive after the latter made $193 in the first day. It looks like xeny- has just forfeited the duel, but who knows, maybe the last 24 hours will bring us a surprise.

sonix vs thonka

sonix is the second trader today to have lost it all on the US vs Belgium World Cup game. Traders put the US as a slight favorite, while in the end Belgium won 4-1, absolutely dominating the game.

In the meantime, thonka is slowly building their P&L and can be sure now to advance to the Round of 16.

Share

Rex416 vs attenonthephone

atteonthephone and Rex416 were very close to each other yesterday. However, the weather gods were not kind to atteonthephone as he has lost $850 since the last recap.

It’s one of few duels in which a weather trader got bested.

WeatherOnly vs green

green remains inactive, thus WeatherOnly is taking it easy and securing his place in the Round of 16.

Subscribe now

Kween vs whiggeries

Same can be said about this duel. While whiggeries is active, his $25 in profit is well short of Kween, another weather trader with $461 in profit.

I see very little chance of change here.

n0rulesnvr vs HondaCivic

n0rulesnvr is doing his best, but being matched against a top weather trader like HondaCivic is tough:

Based on this X post we can expect HondaCivic to advance to the Round of 16. However, n0rulesnvr had a great run in this tournament. Congrats!

Subscribe now

PeterParker3Hive vs OnlyLuckNoBrain

This duel has concluded yesterday after PeterParker3Hive lost it all. OnlyLuckNoBrain has an extended break ahead of the Round of 16.

Arrth vs ClydeCash

ClydeCash, after a dismal performance in Week 3, is back on the top. With $219 in profit from trading World Cup markets he’s well ahead of Arrth.

Arrth is trying his luck on various markets, but it seems that the gap might be too wide to bridge.

Subscribe now

strider_pm vs Joker_Poly

Situation remains unchanged in the last duel. I think we can say that it’s Joker_Poly who will advance to the Round of 16 as strider_pm remains inactive and $436 behind Joker_Poly.

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! With 24 hours to go some duels seem to have already resolved. With such a fast pace of the tournament it’s only logical that some traders are willing to risk it all to advance to the next stage.

However, some matchups are still going head to head so see you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

Subscribe now

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! I hope my American readers had a blast during 4th of July festivities. Now, though, it’s time to catch up with the world. Plenty has happened in the last week and this week, even more can happen.

We have a NATO summit this week in Ankara, on top of continued US-Iran engagements and usual domestic developments across the world.

Let’s take a look a the news, and the markets trading on it!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

SCOTUS has been busy recently. This week, it granted Trump sweeping authority to sack the heads of independent government agencies. In effect, SCOTUS overturned a 91-year-old precedent, Humphrey's Executor. Trump called it the greatest increase in presidential power in the last 100 years.

Comment: Trump now has the outmost control over government agencies like SEC or FTC, the latter being the cause of the whole hearing. However, the ruling does not give the same power when it comes to the Fed. Lisa Cook is safe.

SOCTUS blocked an executive order that would have denied birthright citizenship to the children of undocumented migrants in a separate ruling.

Comment: it was a widely expected decision.

Trump earned more than $1.4 billion from his crypto ventures in 2025, according to a new disclosure. He earned close to another billion from his other businesses.

Comment: it’s no shocker that Trump is using his position to enrich his family.

America’s economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below expectations.

Comment: a weak job market lowered expectations of a Fed hike this year. However, the job market has been weak for quite some time now with previous prints being adjusted lower as time went by. Now the Fed is in a difficult position: should it put pressure on inflation or let it run hot (again) to try and save the labor market? Kevin Warsh is in a difficult spot.

Americans celebrated their country’s 250th birthday. The festivities, however, were limited due to extreme heat.

Comment: various politicians, including Trump, JD Vance and Mamdani, made big speeches on the occasion. However, the day went by with no major announcements.

The Americas

The Trump admin said it would pursue separate trade deals with Mexico and Canada as the USMCA is set to expire this year. The deal will now be reviewed annually.

Comment: the Trump admin has been clear that it wants to renegotiate the deal. It has been pressuring both Canada and Mexico as it wants to extract more concessions from its trading partners, the Alberta independence vote being one of the levers.

Asia

The yen has sunk to a 40-year low against the dollar, driving up import costs and squeezing profit margins in Japan. Satsuki Katayama, the country’s finance minister, vowed to take decisive steps with America’s treasury to prop up the currency.

Comment: Japan is in a tough spot. If they decide to rise the interest rates they risk causing a global financial recession as Japan has been the global lender for the past few decades. Maneuvering between fx markets and rising inflation is becoming increasingly hard.

Afghanistan launched strikes at targets in Pakistan after Pakistani airstrikes hit the country earlier. The countries had agreed to a ceasefire last year, but fighting has continued to break out since then.

Comment: this low-intensity conflict has been going on for months. Sadly, we lack markets for it since the end of June.

Middle East & Africa

Iran and America held indirect talks in Doha. A Qatari spokesman said negotiators made positive progress and that the next round of talks is planned after the Khamenei funeral.

However, Iran is refusing to hold direct talks until terms of the MoU were fully met. Iran is accusing the US of breaching the memorandum by signing the Lebanon framework with Israel. Iran is tightening its control over the Strait of Hormuz as a response.

Comment: it was a quiet week in the Middle East compared to 2026 baseline. However, the Strait of Hormuz, while not entirely closed, still sees less than 30% of usual flow. I believe that the apparent brake will end once the Khamenei funeral is over and the World Cup in the US wraps up.

The Iran war situation continues to be extremely volatile. It is clearly seen in the markets as traders struggle to properly price events with little available information. I wrote an article about it last week:

Six days of formal ceremonies have begun on Saturday to commemorate Khamenei. His body will be transferred across several Iranian cities before being buried on Thursday. Up to 20 million people are expected to visit the coffin in Tehran alone. However, Mojtaba Khamenei will not be one of them.

Comment: we have a short vacation now. Action in the Middle East should resume around July 19th.

Netanyahu asserted that IDF would not leave southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is eliminated. He visited the occupied territory on Tuesday. Separately, America’s House of Representatives failed to pass a war-powers resolution that would have required Congress to approve any American involvement in Israeli military operations in Lebanon.

Comment: on top of everything that has happened, Netanyahu needs to show his strength ahead of the legislative election. Traders now put him behind Gadi Eizenkot in the race for the premiership.

Europe

Russia has continued to attack Ukraine, and Kiev in particular, throughout the week. At the same time, Ukraine continued to hit targets deep in Russia, most recently hitting a refinery in St. Petersburg.

Comment: with the recent developments in Russia, particularly closing the borders with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan, traders expect another round of escalations, rather than a quick peace deal. This summer looks ripe for last-ditch effort.

This week we have a NATO summit in Ankara. Trump is expected to meet Zelensky there and talk about ending the Ukraine war. Additionally, I expect the conversations to revolve around the Iran war and the recent US soft exit from the alliance.

Comment: I don’t expect any major announcements to be made.

Andy Burnham, while slow on his Cabinet picks, began to set out his policy agenda. He pledged to gradually increase public control of utilities, boost local government funding and shift power over economic policy away from London.

Comment: prediction markets are mostly focused on his picks for the Great Offices of State, where Burnham is slow to confirm anyone. When it comes to his overall policies, no major deviation from the Labour Party agenda is expected.

Staying in Britain, Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform UK party, has mounting problems. While his party is leading in the polls, he was referred to Parliament’s standards watchdog for failing to declare benefits from a political ally. He is already facing a probe for not declaring a separate £5 million ($6.7 million) gift from a donor. He denies any wrongdoing.

Comment: just as with Trump, the UK deep state is trying its best to prevent Farage from being able to take power.

Germany’s ruling coalition agreed on a package of reforms, including a €10 billion ($11 billion) in tax cuts for low earners. It also decided on changes to the pension system and hiring-and-firing rules.

Comment: I don’t think these reforms will do nay material difference for the Germany’s economy. It is still on the path of decline and facing maounting threats from China.

Alexandru Munteanu quit as Moldova’s prime minister, triggering the fall of his government. The announcement comes after several government officials were accused of corruption.

Comment: this surely puts a dent in Moldova’s efforts to join the EU.

Other

Cape Verde almost beat Argentina in the Round of 32. Ultimately, after a 111th minute own goal, Cape Verde lost 3-2. In another World Cup news, Balogun, a top US striker, is now expected to play against Belgium in the Round of 16 after FIFA allowed his red card suspension to expire.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! You can expect a monthly recap of my trading tomorrow. Other than that, the content in production is in no state to announce a publication. However, I’m working on an interesting piece that I plan to tease more in the coming days.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.