Hey traders! PROPHET NOTES is cooperating with HIVE on the HIVE World Cup tournament. From now on, until the end of the tournament, you can expect a daily coverage of:

• Best Trade of the Day

• Worst Trade of the Day

• Group Standings

and more as we advance to later stages of the tournament.

It’s been only one day, but some traders have already more than 2x-ed their bankroll! It shapes up to be a very volatile and interesting event so let’s do a quick recap of the last 24 hours.

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Quick Rules Summary

Traders are now competing in the group phase, in three weekly round. They start every round with a fresh $500 and are ranked against their group by that round's profit. Where they finish earns points — top 10 score, everyone else gets 0.

After 3 weeks, top two traders out of each group (and eight best traders from the third place) advance to knockouts.

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Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to airdropper2. He correctly predicted that Iran will close its airspace, buying into that trade below 20c. Airdropper2 made a cool $600 on this trade, giving him a pole position across all traders:

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Day

This title goes to XPredicter. He bought Over 1.5 in the 1st half of the France-Senegal World Cup game. With only one trade, he managed to lose a staggering $437, essentially erasing his chances in the first week of the group stage.

Hopefully, he can redeem himself in the next 2 weeks.

Group Standings

Group A

Group A proved to be extremely competitive with 6 traders turning a profit in the first 24 hours of the tournament.

However, the pole position is flagged for cheating as his positions exceed the $500 cap all traders had to start with. Remember to respect the rules! Edit: it was a bug and 0X357 is in fact in the pole position, successfully trading weather markets!

The second place belongs to Joker_Poly. Joker trades a wide selection of markets, but his biggest win comes from correctly predicting that we won’t see the text of the Iran MOU by June 16th. This single trade made him $100, almost half of his total profits.

The biggest loser of the day is Pisko, a weather trader who lost almost $75 predicting temperatures in Huston. Maybe today will prove to be better for him. We are keeping our fingers crossed.

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Group B

Another extremely competitive group. Not only do we have here Airdropper2, who had the best trade of the day, but also Mosesfan, the winner of the previous HIVE tournament.

However, the biggest shocker comes from backtracker. After raking in some quick wins, he managed to lose his entire bankroll of $877 trading over/under on Portugal-DR Congo World Cup game.

Fortunes turn quickly in HIVE World Cup. You are always one trade away from greatness (or failure, as in this case).

Group C

Group C has another trader who made it big in the last HIVE tournament, nicoco89poly, sitting now at the 3rd place. However, it is ClydeCash who managed to profit over $272 and now has the top spot.

He made $180 swing trading the Iran MOU text release market and $75 trading Kevin Warsh mention markets.

The biggest 24h loss belongs to PityokH, who must have watched a really bad weather forecast for yesterday. Hopefully he can turn things around in the next 6 days.

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Group D

Group D is more mellow, with only 4 traders completing a single trade since the tournament has started. While me and 2 other traders made only minimal gains and losses, green is on a rip making almost $250.

He is probably the most consistent trader we’ve covered, making his profits across a wide selection of markets. His biggest win was Claude Fable market, where he made $25 correctly predicting a continued US ban of the model.

Group E

Group E has only one outlier. 0xmirza made over $460 and sits comfortably at the pole position. He made almost all of it on a single trade: a spread: Austria(-1.5) where he went on with almost all of his bankroll.

The next days will prove if he can repeat this feat.

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Group F

Group F has our laureate of the worst trade of the day. But it also has some gems, with CoffeeLover_pm making almost $240 to date.

He’s made a bulk of his profit trading various World Cup games and a Makerfield by-election in the UK, searching for +EV trades across all categories.

Group G

Group G has the well-know TheGreekTraderHive, who surprisingly lost almost $220 in a single day! He went big on Portugal winning with DR Congo, a game that ended up in a draw. Tough luck:

The pole position belongs to xeny-. He correctly identified the winner of the League of Legends Asia Masters Playoff for a cool $162 profit.

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Group H

Group H belongs to Mask4che, who after a day of trading sits at $404 profit. He’s a weather trader who’s already made 67 predictions!

As you can see, there are multiple ways to make it big, but there’s only one way to lose it all. Choose your strategy wisely.

Group I

Group I has 2 traders that really left the field behind: HiveMapper533 with $181 in profit and shiny with $113 in profit.

HiveMapper533 is trading the World Cup and politics, with his biggest wins coming from predicting Republican Senate Primary in Alabama and the winner of France-Senegal game yesterday.

Shiny’s profits come exclusively from trading the World Cup, with the biggest gain totaling $74.

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Group J

BeefSlayer_ really left everyone behind, raking in over $530 in profit since yesterday. He’s another weather trader, who made it big on the NYC highest temperature market.

On the other side of the table, LinaBell lost over $230 trading against Hakeem Jeffries to win his Democratic Primary.

Group K

Another competitive group, with three traders making over $100, and a fourth with $91 profit.

Splunsky got his pole position by correctly predicting Iran closing its airspace, netting almost $330 from that trade.

On the other side of the table we have hivetourney, who lost almost $200 trading Portugal-DR Congo game. Looking at how often this one game appeared today, it was quite a setup for a lot of traders who saw Portugal as a clear favorite.

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Group L

The last group is mostly dormant for now. However, one trader there managed to lose almost entire bankrol in the first 24h.

Thonka lost it all incorrectly predicting that the draft text of the Iran MOU won’t be published by end of day today. Unlucky.

Wrap Up

It’s been only day 1 and we already have huge winners and huge losers. Can the winners keep their streak? We’ll see soon enough.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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Welcome to another week! We seem to have peace, but do we really? It’s been a wild week with developments across geopolitics, tech and AI. At the same time, I’ve been on the Manifest conference where I met plenty of traders that I talk with on a daily basis online.

I’m planning to write something about my experience and observations so stay tuned. Now, since the article is already late, let’s get up to speed with the world.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

A federal judge ruled that Trump’s proposed $100,000 charge on new applications for H-1B visas in unlawful after several states sued the Trump admin post-fee announcement.

Comment: the fee was not being paid anyway. Just another useless battle…

The Pentagon added dozens of Chinese businesses to its list of firms that threaten national security. The list includes BYD, Alibaba and Baidu. As a result, these companies will be barred from doing business with America’s armed forces.

Comment: reporting claims that this action might complicate upcoming summits between Trump and Xi. However, the top firms mentioned already did little business with the armed forces.

Graham Platner became the Democratic candidate for the Senate in Maine after sweeping the primary, securing nearly 75% of the vote. He will now face the Republican incumbent, Susan Collins, in the midterms.

Comment: traders project that Platner has a decent chance in flipping the seat. This is one of the most important races as Democrats are trying to gain control of the Senate in the upcoming midterms.

Trump nominated Jay Clayton, one of New York’s top federal prosecutors, to be the next director of national intelligence. A former chairman of the SEC is considered a better candidate than the acting director Pulte, who received a lot of backlash in the recent weeks.

Comment: I don’t have anything in particular to say here as I’m not really familiar with Clayton.

The Americas

Trump said he was not looking to renew USMCA. Canada, Mexico and the US must extend the deal by July 1st or face annual reviews. Trump claimed that America does not need anything that Canada or Mexico produce (sic!).

Comment: USMCA was not the deal Trump was hoping to make when he exited NAFTA during his first term. However, saying that the US doesn’t need anything Canada or Mexico produce is a straight lie. Even such a simple resource as Canadian oil is necessary for US energy industry as crucial mixer to the US light-sweet oil. As I’ve repeatedly highlighted, Trump is just putting pressure on America’s trading partners to extract better terms. Looking at the situation now, I believe that he is looking to finally split the deal into 2 separate agreements, something he initially aimed to do.

Trump said that American armed forces had executed Hector Guerrero Flores, better known as Niño Guerrero, head of Tren De Aragua, a Venezuelan gang. Trump said that the airstrike had been coordinated with Venezuela.

Comment: mostly a PR win as it hardly disables the organization.

We had a presidential election run-off in Peru. The vote was extremely close, to the point where the leftist candidate, Roberto Sanchez, asked Keiko Fujimori, his right-wing rival to jointly request a recount. With close to 99% of the vote counted, Keiko is only 25,000 votes ahead.

Comment: while media presents the count as contested and controversial, traders are virtually sure Keiko will be the winner.

Asia

Pakistan said it killed at least 26 militants from Afghanistan in air strikes at the border. The Afghan Taliban disputed the account.

Comment: it’s a bit forgotten conflict amid all the tensions in the Middle East. But it does play a part in the grander scheme of things. Remember that Pakistan is the key mediator in the US-Iran war and it is hardly objective.

Indonesia’s central bank raised interest rates by 0.25 pp, to 5.5%, a week before its next scheduled meeting.

Comment: the rupiah fell a lot vs USD since the Iran war had started. The central bank is trying to protect the currency, but it can only do so much in the face of structural problems…

Seven people and two companies were charged over a fire at a housing complex in Hong Kong that killed 168 people in November. The defendants were involved in renovations of the buildings. The charges, including manslaughter and conspiracy to defraud, are the first to come out of a months-long inquiry into the blaze.

Comment: while not a very consequential global event, it will be an interesting case study. Initially, bamboo scaffolding was blamed for the spread of fire in an effort to ban it. I’m monitoring the case to showcase how a change in regulation can be forced by various groups of interest, in this case the producers of metal scaffolding.

A court in South Korea sentenced Yoon Suk Yeol, a former president, to 30 years in prison on charges related to sending drones into North Korea. Prosecutors argued Mr Yoon ordered the operation to provoke North Korea, giving him a pretext to declare martial law in December 2024.

Comment: in case you missed it, Koreans are making an example out of Yoon to prevent any future coups.

Middle East & Africa

It’s been a wild week in the Middle East. We started with strikes between Israel and Iran, that were a response to the violation of a ceasefire in Lebanon. While both sides quickly agreed to stop them, the US launched strikes on Iran shortly after, as tensions rose in the region.

The whole situation seemed to be escalating as neither side seemed to be ready to give up. We even ended up with Iranian strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain. However, as the weekend began, we started to hear of yet another imminent deal.

Many traders doubted the narrative, but we ended up with both sides announcing an agreement has been reached. We have an official signing ceremony scheduled for Friday. However, a series of issue persist.

On the one hand, we have an unresolved situation in Lebanon. Israel seems eager to continue its campaign there, in defiance of a supposed deal.

On the other hand, there still seems to be a lot of doubt about the Strait of Hormuz issue, despite Trump’s claims that it will be ope to all this week.

We are yet to hear the details of the presumed deal.

Comment: I’m writing an article on the current situation. I’ve already explored a “fake deal” scenario in my previous deep dives, but now it’s time to actually delve deeper into what it means for the future of this conflict, and the region.

Europe

Zelensky met with the leaders of Britain, France and Germany in London. After the meeting, they issued a joint statement on the ceasefire proposal that didn’t really differ from anything we’ve seen in the last year or so.

Comment: even this week’s G7 summit won’t really change anything. Only the continued strike campaign on Russian energy infra can force the situation to break out of the current stalemate.

Zelensky also said the army will raise wages and try to recruit more volunteer fighters from abroad. Monthly wages for most soldiers will rise by a third, to around $700, while frontline troops will receive about $7,000 a month.

Comment: since the European loan of €90 billion is on, Ukraine has the official funding to utilize in its defensive campaign. But the fact that recruitment is focused on foreigners indicates there is a real shortage of willing fighters that can impact negotiations a few months down the line.

Latvia’s defence ministry said NATO jets shot down a drone that entered the country’s airspace from Russia. Officials did not say whether it was Ukrainian or Russian.

Comment: both sides have their struggles. For me it means that we should see a new push to break the stalemate this summer. It remains to be seen if it’s a new front from the north to put pressure on Kiev, or an op to disrupt the NATO supply chains.

The EU proposed to ban all Russian soldiers who have served in Ukraine from entering the bloc. The move is part of a new round of sanctions to be voted on by member states.

Comment: the EU’s actions continue to show commitment to Ukraine, raising chances we will see Ukraine’s accession to the union eventually.

Anti-immigrant protest broke out in Belfast, Northern Ireland after a man was seriously injured in a stabbing by a Sudanese migrant. Police used water cannon to disperse rioters during a second night of unrest in Belfast. A crowd threw bricks, stones and bottles at officers trying to control anti-immigration demonstrations that had turned violent.

Comment: business as usual in the UK, I would say…

Keir Starmer appointed Dan Jarvis as Britain’s defense secretary, hours after John Healey resigned from the position. Mr Healey said that a planned increase in defense spending would fall well short of what the armed forces require.

Comment: the resignation from the Cabinet are a continued signal that Starmer is on his way out.

Britain’s economy shrank by 0.1% in April, its first monthly contraction since August, as the Iran war’s impact began to be felt. Output in the services sector fell by 0.2%, outweighing modest growth in manufacturing.

Comment: my thesis on the SOH closure having adverse effect on the global economy over the long-term is slowly starting to materialize.

Fidesz reelected Viktor Orban as its leader with the support of 729 of 737 delegates. Orban announced an organizational overhaul of the party in a response to the defeat in April’s election.

Comment: seems like our guy is not retiring after all. Hungarian politics will continue to be interesting for the foreseeable future.

Swiss voters rejected, by nearly 55% to 45%, a proposal to cap the country’s population at 10 million. The defeat is a blow to the anti-immigration Swiss People’s Party.

Comment: it went pretty much as traders expected it would.

World, Business, Finance & Economics

SpaceX raised $75 billion in the world’s biggest IPO. It ended Friday session valued at $2.1 trillion, making Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.

Comment: traders see a fair chance we could go even higher than that.

OpenAI filed for an IPO as well, trying to keep up pace with xAI, which is part of SpaceX and Anthropic, which filed for an IPO last week.

Comment: traders, however, are not so confident we will see the long-awaited IPO this year, with chances of one by the end of September only at 25%.

Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, a safeguarded Mythos-class model, only to have it banned by the US government days later. It came after Dario Amodei himself said that governments should be able to block public releases of some models if independent audits determine them to be too risky. How ironic, huh?

Comment: the US government deems Mythos-class model as national security risk and wants them to be available to US citizens only. I posted some of my thoughts here:

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’m still on my trip in the California time zone so articles will be slightly delayed. However, I aim to publish a piece on the Iran deal, as well as some other trading thoughts this week.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to the 18th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.

For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.

By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.

Summary

May proved to be a volatile month due to the Iran war, but my P&L grew regardless:

1. I started May with $17,700 in my portfolio.

2. Today my portfolio stands at $19,221.

3. There were no additional capital injections.

4. Total ROIC is 8.6% for the month and for -10.1% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.

5. All bankroll allocations are on the basis of starting bankroll.

The Good

I finally figured out my mistakes with the Iran war trading. I’m back to fully listening to my research, rather than trying to fit my trading to what I wanted to happen.

The first good thing was abandoning permanent peace Yes positions at slight profit, rather than riding them to the end, hoping for a big win. Trying to catch these falling knives hurt my performance in the previous month, as without trading this market, I would have been in profit.

The second good thing was sticking to my research when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz traffic and Iran airspace closure. While the latter resolved in June, I had most of my positions for May strikes. The former, for now, is an evergreen trade.

The third good thing was holding the Ukraine war ceasefire Yes on the end of June market. I had a very different idea in mind when I bought these shares, and while I don’t agree with the resolution process, I’m happy I pocketed some money there. Especially since I’ve been hurt several times by a wrong resolution.

Ultimately, I think I had a trust issue with my research after a string of negative variance. Since the beginning of May, I’m back to a stable growth path when it comes to my P&L and I’m planning to sustain it in the future.

The Bad

I don’t think I had any huge mistakes last month. The only thing I could have done better was selling my permanent peace Yes shares earlier, in profit.

Bankroll Comments

I have 64% of my bankroll to allocate at the moment. Most of May, though, I was running on around 30% of bankroll available. I’m now looking for more niche Iran markets, as well as other global events to increase my bankroll allocation.

Overall, I’m satisfied with the utilization of the bankroll in May. It was approaching 80%, which I consider most optimal; it’s a good balance between having liquidity to enter new markets and utilizing the size I have. However, since most of the markets I trade now are short-term, spikes in bankroll utilization will happen.

Wrap Up

That’s it for today. I’ll publish a separate portfolio update over the weekend to dive deeper into the positions I’m holding and explore some new ideas.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! Monday started with the news of strikes between Israel and Iran. Small kinetic action is back, but nothing is as it seems. The Ukraine war is also getting interesting as Zelensky asked for a meeting with Putin.

Let’s take a look at the markets and get up to speed with the world.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Trump picked Bill Pulte, head of a federal housing agency, to become the acting Director of National Intelligence. He has no previous national security experience.

Comment: Pulte is not expected to be a permanent pick. However, traders project that no other pick will be announced this year. It means that effectively, Pulte is not the Director for the foreseeable future. Pulte is a Trump loyalist thus expect him to do Trump’s bidding.

Trump signed an executive order requesting AI companies allow the government to vet powerful models 30 days before their release to the public (or any other company). It’s a scaled back version of the previous proposal.

Comment: the order claims voluntary cooperation with AI companies and traders are debating whether it is enough to resolve the market. Seems like not enough considering the current price and the fact that there is no enforcement on voluntary cooperation.

Republicans in the Senate voted down a Democratic attempt to block Trump’s proposed $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund. The DOJ has already said it has abandoned the plan.

Comment: the plan to extract government money failed.

Trump insisted that raising interest rates would be the wrong thing to do after a strong jobs report raised speculation that the Fed could tighten monetary policy by the end of the year.

Comment: Kevin Warsh is in a difficult spot. Despite the pressure, there is 60% chance that he will raise the rates by the end of the year. As I’ve repeatedly written, the Fed will be very interesting to watch now.

The Americas

Mastercard and Visa are fleeing Cuba as America tightens sanctions on the country. They suspended transactions for non-American visitors. Iberostar and Melia, Spanish hotel giants, said they are pulling out of managing at least a dozen Cuban hotels each.

Comment: there are only 10% chances for an economic agreement by the end of the month. This aligns with my initial research on the topic. Cuba will take time.

Asia

Xi is visiting North Korea this week for the first time since 2019. It will be his first overseas trip this year. In March train services between the two countries resumed after a six-year suspension.

Comment: tighter cooperation is coming.

Middle East & Africa

The US and Iran continued to exchange fire last week. There were strikes on Qeshm Island, Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain and Israel. The escalation follows Israeli strikes on Beirut, an Iranian red line. This comes despite the recent extension of the Lebanon ceasefire.

Exchange of fire between Iran and Israel continues as I write this outlook.

Trump is trying to distance the US from the strikes, claiming he urged Netanyahu not to retaliate. Additionally, the US reportedly didn’t take part in the recent escalation. Iran requires a ceasefire in Lebanon to continue the negotiations.

Comment: I wrote a deep dive on the Iran war last week. This escalation is Iran forcing the Lebanon issue back on the table. Regional spheres of influence are back in play for the MoU:

Europe

Zelensky called for face-to-face talks with Putin. In a letter, Zelensky proposed meeting in a third country, with the starting point of the negotiations being the front line today. Zelensky also said that negotiations must involve Europe, with America’s focus on Iran. Putin rejected the proposal, seeing no point in the meeting.

Comment: something is happening. Either the rejection is performative or Russia has a new operation ready to launch.

Russia accused Ukraine of launching an unprecedented attack on St Petersburg. The Kremlin said more than 140 drones were shot down in the region. Yesterday, Zelensky met with leaders from Britain, France and Germany to discuss the war effort.

Comment: same old, same old.

JD Vance blamed the murder on Henry Nowak in Britain on a mass invasion of migrants, echoing Nigel Farage. Henry Nowak was handcuffed by police after being stabbed by a Sikh man falsely accusing him of racism. His death sparked violent protests.

Comment: never a bad day to advance your political goals.

World, Business, Finance & Economics

El Nino, the weather pattern which raises global temperatures and alters rainfall, is expected to start imminently, according to the World Meteorological Organization. It could be the strongest such event in decades. It could substantially increase the risks of extreme weather such as droughts and torrential rainfall over the next nine to twelve months.

Comment: despite the warnings, traders still believe 2026 won’t be the hottest on record. However, volatile weather, combined with the shortage of fertilizer, can be devastating for this year’s harvest.

SpaceX unveiled plans to raise $75 billion in an IPO. This would be the biggest IPO ever and it would value SpaceX at almost $1.77 trillion.

Comment: traders expect the closing market cap to be in the $2-2.5 trillion range.

Blackstone is limiting withdrawals from its $45 billion private credit fund, after investors attempted to pull out $4.5 billion in Q1. Partners Group, a Swiss private equity, limited withdrawals from its flagship fund to 5% in Q2. The move follows a similar pattern in Q1.

Comment: liquidity is in high demand.

The World Cup is coming soon, are you going to watch the games?

Wrap up

That’s all for today! It’s a travel week for me as I’m going to Manifest so no deep dive this week. But I will be back on Friday with the portfolio update and during the week with State of the PROPHET NOTES.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Not a single analysis of the Iran war I read bothered to offer a forecast of the future. All of them tried to explain Trump’s actions. All of them judged these actions. All of them provided a set of supposedly better solutions. But none offered a view of the post-war Middle East.

How can you judge current actions if you don’t know the goal? How can you explain them?

These experts think that a simple note that the war will end with a deal of sorts is enough. It isn’t. Iran is a country of almost 90 million people. Like it or not, it has a future. It has a role to play in the Middle East.

Any analysis trying to explain the current war needs to answer one simple question. What does the post-war order in the Middle East look like?

War

War is often misunderstood. We know it mostly from history books and news. Almost exclusively it was a war of conquest. One country trying to beat the other, extract labor and resources and expand its sphere of influence.

However, wars of today are different.

Read more

Welcome to another week! It feels like the Trump admin is all in on teasing us as there is no progress whatsoever. The imminent Iran deals that never come, alien disclosure that fell short of a promise; pick your poison, Trump will tease you regardless of your issue.

Outside of US politics, the week was full of developments in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as some updates from Asia and Europe. Check it out and get ahead!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The US is mired by its usual problems of illegal immigration and questionable foreign policy.

Ken Paxton defeated John Cornyn in a Republican primary to contest Cornyn’s seat in the senate in the midterms. A late endorsement from Trump helped Paxton secure a win.

Comment: Paxton is considered a controversial figure. We’ll see how much of a problem that proves to be in the coming months. Traders have him as a slight favorite, with 60% chance for victory.

Pete Hegseth attended the Shangri-La Dialogue where he said that America’s relations with China were better than they’ve been in many years. He also said that China’s historic military build-up meant that the US allies ought to spend more on defense. Additionally, America, Australia and Britain agreed to develop aquatic drones to protect subsea cables at the conference.

Comment: performative yapping if you ask me. Nothing groundbreaking was presented or said at the conference.

A federal judge temporarily blocked the Trump admin from implementing a $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund to pay alleged victims of government lawfare. A group of challengers argued that it would unfairly benefit people claiming to have been harmed by Democratic, but not Republican, administrations.

Comment: the fund is looking at a mountain of opposition. Traders see less than 20% chance it will pay a Jan 6 rioter anytime soon.

The Trump administration teased non-human intelligence confirmation by publishing an aliens.gov website, only to have it deal with illegal immigration.

Comment: the Trump admin is looking to put as much attention as possible on the issues it is sure to win on. However, with so many problems around the world, and the resulting inflation, I doubt this is the way to salvage the midterms.

The Americas

The World Cup is coming.

Mexico agreed to act as the base for Iran’s soccer team during the World Cup. The tournament is jointly hosted by America, Canada and Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum said that America did not want the Iranian team to stay overnight in the US.

Comment: Iran is hardly a favorite to win the World Cup, but its presence is surely interesting amid the Iran war.

Bolivia’s centrist president, Rodrigo Paz, said he would cut his salary in half to appease protesters calling for his resignation. Other members of his government are also going to see their salaries cut. His government has faced weeks of demonstrations calling for an end to austerity measures. Paz insists they are necessary to fix public finances.

Comment: traders don’t really expect Paz to go out soon.

Asia

Some scattered news from Asia.

At least 55 people were killed and dozens were injured by an explosion in a village in a region of Myanmar controlled by Ta’ang National Liberation Army. It’s one of the most powerful armed groups opposing the country’s ruling military junta. TNLA blamed explosives used in mining.

Comment: the war in Myanmar continues despite no one looking. It is simply not a priority to handle for anyone. For now, all the interest groups are fine with continued hostilities.

On the Shangri-La Dialogue, India said it had finalized a sale to Vietnam of its supersonic, long-range BrahMos missiles.

Comment: Vietnam is a rising star in SEA.

Japan’s population fell by 3 million between 2020 and 2025, the sharpest decline on record. The country has returned to its population of the late 1980s.

Comment: Japan is clearly headed in a difficult direction.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran war peace deal roller-coaster continues in the Middle East.

During the last weeks, we oscillated between small US and Iranian strikes and an imminent peace deal.

Both sides criticized each other while claiming their strikes are for defensive purposes only.

Iran began restoring internet access after an 88-day digital blackout.

Throughout the week, the Trump admin was teasing an imminent deal, including JD Vance saying that the deal was very close.

Donald Trump ultimately went into the Situation Room to make his final decision, only to reject the deal.

Masoud Pezeshkian is rumored to have resigned from presidency, citing outsized IRGC influence in the country. However, Iran is denying the rumors.

Comment: as usual, more of my insights on the Iran war are available in the recent portfolio update and the video I made over the weekend:

The IDF said it has intensified attacks on Lebanon, after Netanyahu ordered an escalation of its offensive against Hezbollah.

The IDF ordered the evacuation of much of southern Lebanon as it carried out strikes on the city of Tyre. Hezbollah said it had engaged with Israeli troops “at point-blank range” near the town of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah.

The escalation continues to this day.

Comment: as the Middle Eastern peace efforts fail, it is expected that Israel will continue its operations in Lebanon for the foreseeable future.

Netanyahu said he directed Israel’s armed forces to seize at least 70% of Gaza. Additionally, Hamas confirmed the death of Mohammed Odeh, its new military leader, in an Israeli air strike on Gaza.

Comment: traders see a decent chance of a proper offensive starting. If the Iran war negotiations take too long, I also expect Gaza to fire up again.

Ghana’s parliament passed a bill making it illegal to say you are LGBT+ or to have gay sex. A similar bill was also passed in 2024, but the then president refused to sign it. The current president, John Mahama, has said that he will make this one law.

Comment: Ghana seems to be focusing on everything, but the important things… But maybe Trump will appreciate the move.

Europe

The situation in Ukraine seems to be heating up.

Russia warned foreigners to leave Kyiv ahead of systemic strikes targeting defense facilities. It is a response to a deadly Ukrainian attack on a student dorm in the Luhansk region. Vladimir Putin also signed a law to allow his country’s army to intervene abroad to help Russian citizens.

Separately, Zelensky appealed to Trump and America’s Congress for more Patriot PAC-3 missiles and other air defense system to counter missile attacks by Russia.

Last week, Russian drone crossed into Romania and struck a block of flats in Galati, a city near the border with Ukraine, according to the Romanian defense ministry. Two people were injured.

Comment: the Ukraine war is heating up, while many experts forecast a big summer offensive from Russia. I’ll keep monitoring the situation.

Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia in protest at its ally’s attempts to establish closer ties with the EU.

Comment: one consequence of the war of attrition in Ukraine is Russia losing its power projection abilities across Central Asia.

The EU has agreed to unlock €16 billion ($19 billion) in frozen funds to Hungary after a meeting with Peter Magyar, the country’s new prime minister. The bloc had withheld financing due to the rule-of-law violations of Viktor Orban’s government.

Comment: same situation happened in Poland in 2023. Once an EU-favored government was formed, all funds were unlocked, despite no changes in the rule-of-law or any other legislative change. Expect Magyar to run his government more in line with EU mandate, despite his right-wing agenda.

Business, Finance & Economics

A wide array of business news.

America’s PCE index rose by 3.8% y/y in April, as the Iran war pushed up food and energy costs. It’s the biggest increase since May 2023. Additionally, revised GDP figures showed that America’s economy grew by an annualized 1.6% in Q1.

Comment: and they say that the Strait of Hormuz is not important…

Huawei said it was 5 years away from producing 1.4 nanometer chips that would compete with TSMC.

Comment: amid sanctions and tariffs, China is trying to produce high-tech in-house. Recently China also replicated an ASML machine, crucial to chip production, shocking the world.

Anthropic secured $65 billion in funding at a valuation of $965 billion. It was valued at just $380 billion in February.

Comment: AI bubble continues to grow.

A New Glenn rocket made by Blue Origin exploded on its launchpad in Florida. The firm was testing the vessel’s engine; no one was harmed.

Comment: stuff like that happens with rockets.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’ll publish my deep dive on the post-war Middle East this week. It’s going to be a spicy one so make sure to subscribe!

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

There comes a time in every trader’s life when a profound realization of stupidity hits you. It’s not a singular event. Rather, it comes from time to time, especially after a not so good performance.

I’m at this point now. Contrary to what you might think, it’s a good feeling. But… Why am I here?

Iran

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Welcome to another week! The weekend was busy. We had rumors of an imminent deal in Iran, only to see the change in rhetoric on Sunday. Now we are waiting for new updates. TradFi is bullish deal, but prediction markets tell a different story.

There were also developments in other parts of the world. From midterms to Xi-Putin meeting, the world is moving at a staggering pace. Get up to speed with it.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

It’s been quite a week in the US.

Thomas Massie lost his primary in Kentucky to a Trump-backed opponent. While in Texas, Trump-backed Paxton all but won his primary.

Comment: Trump is pushing candidates that would not directly oppose him. However, he should rather focus on not losing Congress.

Tulsi Gabbard resigned as America’s director of national intelligence, citing her husband’s diagnosis with a rare form of cancer. Rumors are she’s been increasingly sidelined.

Comment: for quite some time now Gabbard’s been rumored to leave the admin. She didn’t have any serious project or a role in the recent US actions on foreign soil. Polymarket consensus is that Aaron Lukas, the current principal deputy director of national intelligence is going to replace her.

The Trump admin announced a $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund to compensate people who claim they were wrongly targeted by the Justice Department. It was created as part of the settlement of a lawsuit the president brought against the IRS.

Comment: Trump’s allies are going to get paid, but there’s a coin-flip chance some of the payouts will be blocked.

America’s acting AG, Todd Blanche, said that the IRS is forever barred from continuing any existing audits against the Trump family or its businesses. This comes as part of the settlement that created the Anti-Weaponization Fund.

Comment: one of Trump’s main motivations for being POTUS is enriching his family. By all accounts, he’s doing great in that regard.

Trump delayed signing an executive order that would have given the admin more oversight of new AI models. The AI labs would be required to share the new models before their release.

Comment: supposedly it was David Sacks who saved the day for his tech bro friends. Ultimately the most important thing for the US government is to have unobstructed access to state of the art models and it is surely getting it.

American secret service agents returned fire on a gunman near the White House, killing the individual. The suspect is a 21-year-old who is known to the service. One bystander was injured in the process.

Comment: I think the assassins fail to realize that in case they succeed, it’s JD Vance taking the throne.

The Americas

It’s all Cuba.

America’s Justice Department indicted Raul Castro on several charges, including murder. He is accused of ordering two aircraft flown by a Miami-based exile group to be shot down in 1996, killing 4 people.

Comment: with no progress in diplomacy, strikes are increasingly looking like the most likely option.

Asia

Xi Jinping is busy meeting world leaders.

Xi said China’s relationship with Russia had reached the highest level of comprehensive strategic partnership after signing a series of trade and technology agreements with Putin in Beijing. The two leaders criticized America’s military actions, but failed to reach an agreement on a long touted gas pipeline between the 2 countries.

Comment: Russia and China continue to deepen their relationship. A bearish sign for US-Russia cooperation if you ask me, but lack of progress on the pipeline issue leaves a crack in the door.

Rubio held talks in Delhi with Modi and extended an invitation for India’s PM to visit the White House. Rubio indicated ahead of the meeting that America would sell India as much energy as they’ll buy.

Comment: the US is trying really hard to get India into its sphere of influence.

A train carrying Pakistani security personnel was bombed in Balochistan, killing at least 24 people and wounding around 70. The Baloch Liberation Army claimed responsibility for the attack.

Comment: there can be several explanations. Balochs might want to use the current crisis to dash for independence. They could have been hired. But by which side? They could be getting stronger by facilitating cross-border illegal oil trade since part of Balochistan lies in Iran. Surely an interesting development.

Middle East & Africa

We have yet another peace deal narrative.

The US and Iran were exchanging MOU proposals throughout the week. There was some escalatory rhetoric along the process, but we went into the weekend with rumors of an imminent deal (visible on the Polymarket chart).

Oil fell on the news. However, it soon became clear that there are still large gaps to bridge. As of today, we are awaiting new rumors. Despite differences, both sides claim to be deeply engaged in the process.

Some of the rumors were confirmed by Marco Rubio, giving a spark of confidence to the commentators.

Iran is generally highlighting wide gaps, while the US is claiming to be close to a deal.

Comment: Marco Rubio confirming some rumors gives me only a minor confidence boost. More of my thoughts in my recent deep dive:

The Knesset voted 110-0 to dissolve itself, beginning a countdown to election in September or October.

Comment: Netanyahu is currently tied with Naftali Bennett as favorites to be the next PM. Naftali Bennett is the former PM and the leader of the new opposition alliance, Together, aiming to win the election.

The WHO raised the threat from the Democratic Republic of Congo’s ebola outbreak from high to very high. The suspected death toll in central Africa has reached 177; a further 750 cases are suspected. Scientists are working on a vaccine for the disease, but it is not expected to be ready for several months.

Comment: it won’t be a pandemic, but it’s yet another crisis in Africa…

Europe

This week Ukraine and Russia exchanged multiple missiles, including on Kiev and Moscow. Outside of that:

The European Union provisionally agreed to remove import duties on some American goods to avoid an escalation of the trade negotiation with Trump. It was done as part of a trade deal agreed in July.

Comment: I don’t think anyone doubted that.

A Turkish court annulled the results of the Republican People’s Party congress in 2023, thus removing Ozgur Ozel as head of the main opposition party. The court reinstated the divisive Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who lost a presidential election in 2023 to Mr Erdogan, as CHP’s interim leader.

Comment: seems like Erdogan is tightening his grip on power.

Business, Finance & Economics

It’s an IPO frenzy.

Google said it will introduce Spark, a new AI agent to its search engine. The bot will draw on user data from products such as Gmail and Maps to carry out tasks. The tech giant also unveiled smart glasses, a decade after it shelved Google Glass. The specs, intended to rival Meta’s Ray-Bans, respond to voice commands and can take photos and videos.

Comment: AI is being more and more integrated into our daily lives.

SpaceX filed for an IPO and is expected to debut on NASDAQ in June. Traders are fairly certain it will be the biggest IPO to date:

Comment: xAI is part of SpaceX; Elon is looking to fund his AI lab to rival OpenAI.

Hearing the news, OpenAI is reportedly also preparing to file for an IPO in the coming weeks. The company is currently valued at $831.9 billion.

Comment: Sam Altman also needs massive amounts of capital to win the AI race.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’m working on a next deep dive, but I’ll let you know more about it once I’m closer to publishing it.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Politics is the art of using any situation to your advantage. A good politician is one who can extract maximum benefits, even from a crisis. And arguably, Trump is the best politician the US has seen since probably FDR. Love him or hate him - after 10 years in politics, having entered as a total outsider, he is the fiercest political force.

Currently, he must be asking himself one question - What do I stand to gain / lose if I end the war, vs what do I stand to gain / lose if I let the war continue?

The general assumption among analysts is that the cost of continuing the war far outweighs the benefit. From the economic implications to midterms, the conventional wisdom is clear. But is it true?

I spend my days reading and watching countless analyses. But from experts to armchair analysts, no one seems to have a proper understanding of the current situation. Forecasts lose accuracy in days, even hours. Explanations often fail to provide a complete rationale, as if the top geopolitical minds didn’t in fact have any idea what is going on.

Prediction markets’ sharps resorted to simple, generalist rationales in the face of enormous complexity; the war must end because the markets will eventually force Trump to sign a slop deal is the prevailing assessment.

What if there is a plan, however? No 5D chess type of plan that “plan trusters” pushed on us from day 1, but a plan that took shape as the initial strategic calculus failed? A ruthless calculation that yielded an uncomfortable result for most of the world, but one that offers potentially outsized benefits for the main actor, the US.

A Plan Was Born?

Today I will ask an uncomfortable question. I keep seeing signs and signals that defy a seemingly rational analysis. I don’t know yet where this journey will take me, but I want you to accompany me on it.

Read more

Welcome to another week! We were all waiting for Trump’s China visit. Expectations were high, but ultimately we were left with almost nothing. Both leaders failed to reach an agreement on a single issue between the two countries. However, both agreed that XI will visit the US in the coming months.

Outside of the China summit, we had quite a few developments around the world, with the Iran war not being one of them! There, a stalemate continues.

Let’s look at the markets to get up to speed with the most recent forecast.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The events in the US this week revolved around Trump’s visit to China.

Trump took a wide array of business leader on the trip to China with him. The opening statement suggested a series of issues, from business dealings to the global security, would be discussed.

However, soon after it turned out that nothing of substance was achieved. The two main deals secured are the 200 planes Boeing sale and an inventory clearing exercise with Nvidia selling some of its older chips to the Chinese companies.

Trump was also short of announcing anything on Taiwan.

Comment: as you see on the markets, not a single big issue was resolved. From my pov the meeting was disappointing.

Kevin Warsh was confirmed as chairman of the Fed by the Senate in a close 54-45 vote.

Comment: Kevin Warsh is looking at a difficult beginning. He will have a hard time assuming authority with Powell still on the Board. Additionally, he is looking at a rising inflation as Trump is pushing for lower rates.

The Americas

A quiet week in the Americas outside of the surprise Cuba visit by the CIA director.

John Ratcliffe went to Cuba to meet with the regime as the US is looking to bring the country to its orbit.

Comment: another diplomatic meeting is expected by the end of June as the situation on the island deteriorates.

Asia

Dela Rosa, a Philippine senator, escaped arrest in a series of unbelievable events. Armed forces entered the country’s senate, where the senator was hiding. Wanted by the ICC arrest warrant for his action during the country’s war on drugs, he managed to flee the senate and is now nowhere to be found.

Comment: a rather inconsequential event, but in the light of increased Chinese pressure on the Philippines, it feels important to track the developments in the country.

Middle East & Africa

We had surprisingly little news from the Middle East as the Iran war stalemate continues.

Araghchi said that America’s contradictory messages erode his country’s trust in negotiations. He believes America is not serious.

With no progress in the negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be closed. However, during Trump’s China visit, over 30 ships crossed the strait, supposedly in line with the IRGC process.

Netanyahu secretly visited the UAE as the first round of the Iran war hostilities took place. Soon after a sale of the Iron Dome air-defense system was announced.

Trump teased an Iran invasion in a cryptic Truth Social post.

Comment: it’s a never ending cycle of pressure escalation/deescalation as the game of chicken over the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues. More comments from me tomorrow in a new deep dive and on my recent video:

Israel launched strikes on a town in southern Lebanon, hours after the two countries agreed to extend their ceasefire. Six people were killed in the attack. Israel claimed it had targeted members of Hezbollah. Israel also announced elimination of Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the commander of Hamas’s armed wing, in an air strike on Gaza.

Comment: Israel’s campaign continues, slightly suggesting the whole quagmire will last for months to come.

Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, a senior leader of Islamic State, was killed in a joint Nigerian-American operation in north-east Nigeria. Minuki, whom Trump described as the most active terrorist in the world, directed IS operations across the Sahel and west Africa.

Comment: American actions in Africa continue. As I’ve repeatedly said the continent will see a lot of military action in the coming months and years.

An ebola outbreak killed 65 people in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Nearly 250 cases were reported at the border with Uganda and South Sudan. Authorities are alarmed as the region sees a lot of population movement.

Comment: hantavirus is already forgotten.

Europe

A busy week in Europe amid the ongoing Ukraine war and a turmoil in the British politics.

Russia and Ukraine swapped hundreds of PoWs as part of a deal brokered by Trump earlier this month. Overall, the swap is expected to involve 2,000 prisoners in tranches. However, fighting on the front continues.

Comment: the ceasefire markets are back and chances are low we will see a proper agreement anytime soon.

Keir Starmer is facing mounting pressure to resign. He even began the week claiming full confidence in Wes Streeting, who resigned from the cabinet days later and is expected to fight for the top job.

Andy Burnham, the current mayor of Manchester, is also expected to join the fight after he secures an MP seat in the June by-election.

Comment: the British political scene will get really intense soon.

France’s unemployment rate rose to 8.1% in the Q1, the highest level since 2021. It is also an issue for Macron, who’s been trying to lower the rate since he assumed office.

Comment: European job market is tough with little high paying jobs and close to no opportunities for the young.

Bulgaria’s Dara won the Eurovision Song Contest in Vienna with Bangaranga.

Comment: Bulgaria was not a favorite coming onto the contest, trading below 10c just hours before the announcement.

Business, Finance & Economics

An interesting week in business, despite lack of any serious deals coming out of the China summit.

Sam Altman took the stand to reject allegations that he broke a vow to keep OpenAI a non-profit organization. Elon Musk accuses Altman of trying to steal a charity by turning it into a commercial venture. Altman claims that OpenAI’s for-profit arm is a creative way to keep the lab going.

Comment: it’s just a feud of two business giants. Can be entertaining, but not consequential.

Tata Electronics, an Indian tech firm, and ASML signed an agreement to collaborate on building India’s first commercial semiconductor fabrication plant. Tata plans to invest $11 billion.

Comment: team west is looking to bring India on board. A smart bet considering India’s long-standing feud with China.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. I’m planning a deep dive on the Iran situation for tomorrow and another video on the markets later on.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! We are still in a difficult spot when it comes to the Iran war as we are awaiting the new narrative of the week amid the stalemate. But as usual, there are plenty of developments outside of the war.

So let’s look at what the markets forecast for the next week and beyond.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

While everyone is looking at the foreign affairs, domestic developments in the American politics ahead of the midterms are increasingly interesting.

China has confirmed that Trump will visit the country on May 13th-May 15th.

Comment: outside of tariffs and rare earth, I expect the Iran war to take the prime spot during Tump-Xi discussions.

Rubio went to Rome for a meeting with Pope Leo amid increasingly strained relations between the Vatican and the US over the Iran war. He also met with Giorgia Meloni to try and ease tensions.

Comment: Trump speaks what he wants, Rubio comes to explain and deescalate.

Virginia Supreme Court threw out redistricting referendum results.

Comment: with no new map in Virginia, Republicans are looking to win the redistricting war. They hope to cling to the slim majority they hold and this decision brought them one step closer to achieve it.

A refinery in Louisiana caught fire in yet another oil-related incident.

Comment: covert attacks on the oil infrastructure continue as there is no end in sight for the Iran war.

The Americas

This week we had interesting developments up north.

Separatists in the Canadian province of Alberta have gathered enough petition signatures to start the process for a referendum on independence. It can take place as early as October.

Comment: there are little chances Alberta will vote for independence. However, with the Trump admin having recently met with the separatists, it can be used as a small leverage for the US ahead of the USMCA renegotiation.

Asia

India is on the top of the headlines in Asia.

Modi urged citizen to use fuel sparingly. He also asked them to carpool, work from home and reduce non-essential travel abroad.

Comment: the energy crisis continues. For now these are just polite requests, but pretty soon they will turn into compulsory mandates.

The Bharatiya Janata Party, which runs India’s federal government, won a landslide in West Bengal state election. It has never held power before in West Bengal, which includes the city of Kolkata. Incumbents also suffered in other state elections. M.K. Stalin resigned as chief minister of Tamil Nadu after a party led by a former actor gained the most seats there. In Kerala the ruling communists were ejected from power by a coalition led by the Congress party.

Comment: it seem that Modi is tightening his grip on power. It will be importan once the energy crisis fully hits India.

At least 14 police officers were killed in a car-bomb attack in Pakistan, officials said. A vehicle blew up on Saturday night at a security post in Bannu, a city near the border with Afghanistan; the attackers proceeded to shoot at officers inside a nearby building. Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen, a militant group that has been linked to the Pakistani Taliban, claimed responsibility.

Comment: amid the Iran war, many of us have forgotten about the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict. It is well alive.

Middle East & Africa

We had the usual roller coaster in the Middle East.

This week was full of conflicting developments in the Iran war. First, we had Rubio criticizing Iran, claiming it is leaving sailors stranded on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Then we had limited strikes on US and IRGC navy, combined with attacks on the UAE and southern Iran. There were also claims that the UAE initiated some of the attacks.

The Operation Project Freedom ended only 2 days after it started amid all the strikes.

Additionally, the CIA leaked report claimed that Iran can outlast the US blockade for months before Iran’s economy would feel any real pressure.

The attacks stopped as we learned of an MoU aiming to end the war. Axios reported that the two sides are close to reach agreement, but the Iranian response that came today was negative.

Comment: my extensive commentary on the situation is linked above. However, to sum up my thoughts, the stalemate is more entrenched than many would like to think…

First Qatar LNG shipment moved through the Strait of Hormuz since the war started.

Comment: as the Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed, more and more countries are cutting deals with the IRGC to move their ships out of the Persian Gulf. As I’ve been telling you for weeks.

Israel struck southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs and issued new displacement orders, despite the ceasefire.

Comment: despite the next meeting between Israel and Lebanon taking place soon, the war continues. We can expect the war to continue at least as long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed.

Several drone strikes hit Khartoum, including its airport. The assaults end a months-long period of relative calm in the Sudanese capital, which the regular army retook from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces last year.

Comment: the market doesn’t see RSF capturing Khartoum anytime soon, but the recent escalation can change the price soon.

Europe

It’s been a surprising week in Europe, especially around the Ukraine war.

Ukraine and Russia agreed to a 3-day ceasefire, creating a massive turmoil on the prediction markets. Both sides quickly resorted to accuse each other of breaking the ceasefire.

Comment: the ceasefire is not indicative of any permanent peace deal, making the markets’ resolution highly controversial. I’ve already shared some of my thoughts on X and I will publish a video on the consequences for war-related markets tomorrow.

Turkey unveiled a new missile touted as able to hit the US mainland.

Comment: amid chaos in the Middle East, Turkey is both providing deterrence and signifying strength.

Romania’s government collapsed after parliament passed a vote of no confidence. George Simon is reported to be the mastermind behind the move.

Comments: analysts don’t expect a snap election, but with George Simon as the mastermind, we can expect some chaos as the next government is being formed.

Danish Prime Minister Fredriksen failed to form coalition and the situation got way more complicated.

Comment: despite the problems, Mette Fredriksen is still the favorite to be the next prime minister.

Keir Starmer suggested his government would investigate whether Iran stands behind a string of recent attacks on London’s Jewish community.

Comment: it probably does, but are they ready to admit it?

Amid Starmer’s problems, Wes Streeting admits he is ready to be the next PM.

Comment: Wes Streeting is hardly the favorite, but he’s a smart operator.

Business, Finance & Economics

Region-agnostic news focused on the hantavirus this week.

MV Hondius, the cruise ship struck by an outbreak of hantavirus, arrived in the Canary Islands. Six cases of the disease have so far been confirmed on board; three passengers have died.

Comment: traders are dubious that we will see a hantavirus pandemic this year (or ever) as transmissibility is low and mortality is high.

SEC proposed scrapping a requirement for public companies to report quarterly earnings, instead allowing them to file twice a year.

Comment: Trump has already floated the idea during his first term, but it is unlikely to affect the reporting cycle inside large corporates as they have other bureaucratic issues to tackle on a monthly basis.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. I won’t tease another deep dive considering the volatile environment we are in, but something is definitely coming this week. Other than that. tomorrow I’m posting a video on the recent Ukraine ceasefire drama and consequences for future ceasefire markets.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

During the weekend we saw a rather unusual development on prediction markets, with Ukraine ceasefire markets resolved to Yes, against precedents. I’ve written my comment on the situation on X, but I’m still mulling over the consequences. This week I will not comment any more on the issue, but expect my further thoughts once we have some explanation from the Polymarket team (if any).

For now though, let’s take a look at Iran as the Iran war markets still dominate my portfolio.

Iran

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Welcome to the 17th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.

For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.

By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.

Summary

March proved to be a volatile month, especially at the very end (again):

1. I started April with $18,603 in my portfolio.

2. Today my portfolio stands at $17,700.

3. There were no additional capital injections.

4. Total ROIC is -4.9% for the month and for -17% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.

5. All bankroll allocations are on the basis of starting bankroll.

The Good

I realized I’ve been too careless about my positions, especially considering the timezone I’m in. Since my portfolio is mainly Iran war and developments happen fast, usually overnight from where I am, I need to be more cautious and catch signals early. Additionally, in my last 2 portfolio updates I finally developed a sound framework for analyzing the war, focusing on the next steps vs how it could end.

Thanks to that, I had 2 main good positions, one being the Strait of Hormuz normalization market, where I was and am on No and the Iran airspace closure market (which is a proxy for war restarting), where I am also on No on the short-term markets.

The Bad

The main bad development in my portfolio, from which most of the losses result, is going into the peace market Yes in the second half of April, just ahead of the flurry of good news from Trump. At one point I was way up on the positions, but surprisingly the second diplomatic meeting in Islamabad never happened (despite multiple signals it will, not only in the media) and I ended up going to zero on my end of April position.

I don’t really think it was a mistake, based on multiple sources of intel I had at the time, but it happens. Other than that, I bought a losing QatarEnergy market on a false assumption that it wouldn’t resolve on news prior to market creation. I need to be more careful about such markets.

Bankroll Comments

I have 38% of my bankroll available, finally coming closer to utilizing most of it vs letting it sit. Looking at May, I will continue to focus on the Iran markets and I will include Cuba analysis as well as Ukraine war deep dive as I see some developments happening in both this month or in June.

Mentally I feel good about my trading and analysis, even though April wasn’t a good month from the P&L perspective. My market selections and entries were good and I’m not letting variance to get into my head.

Additionally, I have a few good ideas for May and beyond, giving me confidence in execution.

Wrap Up

And that’s all for today. Despite a slightly down month I feel progress and I’m looking forward to what will happen next.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! Last one was rather quiet, but on Sunday we got a flurry of new developments in the Iran war as both sides are struggling with the double blockade.

Outside of Iran war, Powell dropped a bombshell and there were some interesting developments in the Middle East (outside of war) and Europe.

Prediction markets continue to provide the best information available online, especially amid all the chaos created by war communication. Take a look at how last week’s events changed forecast on top markets.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

It was a rather quiet week in America, with no major scandals.

Congress passed a bill to reopen the DHS after it was shut for 75 days. The bill does not provide new money for immigration agencies, but GOP hopes to fund them in other way by a simple majority.

Comment: the drama is over, but migration remains a hot topic ahead of the midterms.

Spirit Airlines ceased operations after failing to secure a $500 million bailout from the Trump administration.

Comment: Spirit was essentially forced to cease operations as its merger with JetBlue was blocked earlier.

The Americas

Some developments in The Americas between crisis-ridden Cuba and Brazil.

Brazil’s Congress overrode President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s veto of a bill to shorten the prison sentence of Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years in jail last year for plotting a coup after his defeat in 2022.

Comment: Brazil’s upcoming election is looking to be an interesting one as Bolsonaro’s son is the favorite to win it.

Trump announced that the US Navy would swing by Cuba on its way back from Iran to take over the island.

Comment: Cuba is obviously next in line. Question is when it will happen. And the answer is probably later than expected, considering the current situation in the Middle East.

Asia

No major news from Asia this week, outside of near confirmation that Trump is coming to China:

Middle East & Africa

It’s been another tense week in the Middle East as the Iranian quagmire seems impossible to resolve quickly.

Iran and the US were exchanging deal drafts throughout the week, but failed to reach even preliminary agreement. Iran toyed with pushing the nuclear issue to phase 2, while the US seemed unmoved in its demands.

Both sides were tough when it comes to maintaining the blockade / closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Mojtaba Khamenei threatened to end the US blockade, while Trump vowed to maintain it until a deal on nuclear is reached.

Late on Sunday, Trump announced an escort operation, however it quickly turned out it is just an advisory project for ships willing to cross the strait, with US assistance in defense uncertain.

Iran claimed to hit the US destroyer with 2 missiles, however, the US military denies the attack.

Comment: I’ve included my deeper thoughts in my recent portfolio update, as well as a video on YouTube:

Hezbollah ruled out giving up its weapons under any deal with Israel, rejecting the latter’s core condition for ending the war. Israel also continued to carry out strikes in Lebanon, despite the ceasefire.

Comment: the Hezbollah issue, similarly to Iran, seems unresolvable for now. However, it doesn’t seem to stop US x Iran negotiations anymore. A good sign for peace, if we search for any.

Israeli strikes killed at least 4 Palestinians in Gaza as Hamas official met mediators in Cairo to try and revive a fragile ceasefire, where talks stalled. Israel also intercepted an aid flotilla in international waters near Greece.

Comment: while I don’t see the Gaza conflict flaming up soon, lack of progress in the ceasefire implementation was expected. The situation is stable for now and should remain so, at least as long as Israel remains busy in Lebanon and Iran.

The Trump admin fast-tracked $8.6 billion in arms sales to allies in the Middle East, including the UAE, Israel and Qatar.

Comment: the sale is most likely connected to all the used missiles and destroyed equipment in the current Iran war.

The UAE said it would leave OPEC on May 1st.

Comment: US swap lines have a price.

Saudi Arabia’s public investment fund confirmed that it will stop funding for LIV, the golf tour it co-founded, after spending more than $5 billion on it.

Comment: it seems that the strait closure has some effects on the Gulf economies, contrary to what most like to say.

Europe

Europe is grappling with the Strait of Hormuz crisis and Ukraine war, making for a difficult political and economic environment.

The head of Ukrainian army said Russian forces had nearly reached the outskirts of Kostiantynivka, one of several fortified towns in the eastern Donetsk region.

Comment: Ukraine has a belt of fortified cities, Kostiantynivka being one of them. If they are breached, Russia could advance fast. Ukraine is surely in a dire position, however its hits on Russian oil infrastructure take a toll on the Russian economy, which otherwise would benefit greatly from the Strait of Hormuz closure. Both sides are in a difficult position ahead of summer.

The Pentagon announced that it would remove 5,000 troops from Germany after a disagreement between Merz and Trump. The former said that America was being humiliated by Iran’s leaders. Trump also said he would increase EU tariffs to 25%, from 15%.

Comment: 5,000 troops is a symbolic number than anyhing else, considering that Germany hosts a permanent US base that is being used during the Iran war.

The EU announced it would temporarily relax state-aid rules to allow government subsidies for companies struggling with higher energy costs an inflation caused by Iran war. Changes will remain in place until end of year.

Comment: slowly, but surely, the energy crisis is arriving in Europe, as I’ve been saying for weeks now.

Police declared a stabbing in north London a terrorist incident after 2 Jewish men were seriously injured. Police detained a suspect, while the national threat level was raised to severe.

Comment: it is a direct result of the Iran war, as the UK is instrumental in US military logistics.

Keir Starmer continues to be under fire as MPs tried to start an inquiry into his appointment of Peter Mandelson, however the vote failed.

Comment: a breather for Starmer, however his chances of keeping the top job are weak.

Business, Finance & Economics

Outside of Spirit Airlines bankruptcy, a rather quiet week in business.

American economy grew at an annualized rate of 2% in Q1, slightly below expectations. Jerome Powell in his last meeting warned of higher inflation because of energy shock and dropped a bombshell by announcing he will stay on the board.

Comment: Powell is starting a fight with Trump to cement his legacy as defender of Fed independence. Kevin Warsh is looking at a tough job, grappling with authority issues and building consensus in a divided Fed.

EU regulators charged Meta with breaking the law by preventing children under age 13 from using its platforms. Meta could be liable for up to 6% of global annual turnover.

Comment: EU fight with the Trump admin continues, especially after the recent tariff tantrum.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. This week’s deep dive has been decided - the escort operation on the Strait of Hormuz. This will be a spicy one.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Recently I take more time to write these and it does me good. It forces me to think more deeply about my positioning and actually search for good alpha. This week my focus was once again on Iran, but also on the global economy and repercussions for the Strait of Hormuz closure.

Iran

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Welcome to another week! While Iran still dominates the media landscape, there is really plenty of stuff happening outside of the Middle East. From another assassination attempt on Trump, to global refinery incidents, to Ukraine war. The world keeps moving on.

Keep up to speed without being embroiled in fake narratives. Subscribe and take a look for yourself as I explain the world through the lenses of prediction markets.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

We had a wild week in the US with yet another assassination attempt and turmoil around the Fed.

There was an assassination attempt during the White House Correspondents Dinner as Cole Allen stormed through the guards at the hotel and sprinted towards the room armed and shooting. He was caught before he was able to harm anyone. His manifesto shows he was targeting Trump admin officials.

Comment: some think it as scripted to push the case for Trump’s White House Ballroom. I think it could have more to do with the current Iran war, or just be a case of someone who had a psychotic episode.

We are amid Kevin Warsh’s confirmation process in the Senate, where he told the Senators he would be strictly independent from the Trump admin. Thom Tillis, a Republican, has threatened to block Mr Warsh’s confirmation unless a probe into Jerome Powell, the current chair, is dropped.

Comment: traders seem confident Warsh will be confirmed as we learned that the DoJ dropped its criminal probe into Jerome Powell.

UPS and FedEx began filing requests for refunds on tariffs after the SCOTUS ruled that some of them were unconstitutional. But some companies, like Apple and Amazon, haven’t filed for refunds yet as Trump promised in an interview that he will remember those who didn’t.

Comment: there is low chance Trump will actually remember anyone as this is just a pressure tactic to salvage the US budget.

The Americas

The Cuba situation remains unresolved as the crisis in the country deepens.

Asia

The energy situation in Asia continues to be dire, but for now, no new measures were introduced.

In Asia, as well as other parts of the world, we had over 45 refineries incidents (fires, explosions, etc.) since the start of the war. In Asia these included:

• HPCL Rajasthan Refinery (Pachpadra/Balotra district, Rajasthan, India) — April 20, 2026: A fire broke out at the Crude Distillation Unit (described as the “heart” of the new ~$8.5 billion greenfield integrated refinery-cum-petrochemical complex, one of India’s first such facilities).

• Myanmar river port fuel facility (Homalin Township, Sagaing Region / Bandar Humalin / Hmawbi area) on April 20–21, 2026: A massive explosion and fire erupted at a river port facility involving fuel tankers, barges, and vessels (many serving as small-scale tankers). At least 2 people were killed and 11+ injured.

• Recycled/waste oil storage facility (Dong Anh District, Hanoi, Vietnam — near Lộc Hà Bridge) on April 25, 2026 (evening): Powerful explosions and a large fire broke out at a storage site holding waste/recycled oil, chemicals, solvents, and flammable materials.

• Pakistani gas pipeline in Hattar Industrial Estate, Haripur district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, northwestern Pakistan on April 16, 2026: A section of a Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) gas supply/transmission pipeline burst, ignited, and exploded, triggering a massive fire with towering flames and thick black smoke. The blaze spread rapidly.

Comment: these incidents are surely connected to the current Iran war.

Japan relaxed restrictions on exports of lethal weapons, departing from pacifist policies introduced after WWII.

Comment: more and more countries see the need to militarize and Japan is the premiere US ally in the region. It is only logical that Japan jumps on that train.

Taiwan’s president Lai Ching-te cancelled a trip to Eswatini because China made it impossible to fly there, pressuring Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles to refuse to allow his plane through their airspace. Eswatini is one of 12 countries that have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. However, the foreign minister managed to go there eventually.

Comment: China’s strategy for Taiwan is a death by a thousand cuts, rather than a costly invasion. this is part of this strategy.

• Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, cancelled a trip to Eswatini because China made travel impossible, his office said. Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles refused to allow his plane through their airspace. Taiwan alleged that they had been coerced by China, including with economic pressure. Eswatini is one of 12 countries that have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which China claims as its own.

Middle East & Africa

The situation in the Middle East continues to be complicated as the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists.

The ceasefire in Iran expired, but Trump unilaterally extended it indefinitely. Iran didn’t reciprocate, but for now no kinetic strikes are happening.

We are in a stalemate as Iran said it is not possible to open the Strait of Hormuz while the US blockade is in place. At the same time, the US is not willing to lift the blockade as long as there is no deal.

Both sides continue to intercept ships, with the US doing interceptions around India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, suggesting that Iran is evading the blockade by running ships in Pakistani territorial waters.

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were supposed to go to Islamabad as Iranian foreign minister does his round trip between Islamabad, Oman and Moscow. However, the Us trip was cancelled at the last minute as there is still no alignment on a deal.

Iran is now proposing a long term ceasefire first, then a discussion on the Strait of Hormuz and only once this issue is resolved, a possible discussion on the nuclear enrichment.

Comment: seems like both sides are waiting for the other to blink first as global supply chains struggle with each day of the Strait of Hormuz double closure. With 2 months in, we are sure to feel dire consequences of the energy supply shock. More of my comments on the situation in my recent portfolio update:

In the meantime, the Lebanon ceasefire is somewhat holding as both sides accuse each other of breaches.

However, Trump managed to secure the ceasefire extension for 3 weeks as he awaits progress in Iran talks, after he hosted Israeli and Lebanese diplomats in the White House.

Comment: if anything, it is a proof that the Hezbollah issue is important for Iran and that Israel is willing to play ball for now, indicating trust in Tump’s actions.

Militants in Mali launched a series of coordinated attacks against towns and cities across the country. They appear to push Russian backed soldiers out of the key positions.

Comment: I’ve repeatedly mentioned that Africa will also be a field in the current cold war between team west and team east.

Europe

Europe is also starting to feel the consequences of the Iran war, while the Ukraine war persists, without prospects of imminent end.

Ukraine has repaired the Druzhba pipeline carrying Russian crude to central Europe. It must make Hungary and Slovakia happy and raises prospects of unlocking the €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine.

Comments: Ukraine would get financing one way or the other. For now, the war must go on. We will see what happens around July, once the main effects of the SOH closure will start to be felt in Europe.

Germany published its first military strategy since the WWII. Germany assumes special responsibility for the EU’s defense as describes Russia as the greatest immediate threat. It aims to be fully ready by 2039, 100 years after the start of WWII.

Comment: one could say that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. But 2039 is way too late for taking special responsibility.

Lufthansa cancelled 20,000 short-haul flights across Europe between May and October, aiming to save 40,000 tonnes of jet fuel.

Comment: slowly, then suddenly.

Wes Streeting, Britain’s helath secretary, hailed the new bill banning anyone born after January 1st 2009 from buying tobacco and putting more restrictions on vapes and marketing.

Comment: New Zealand, that passed similar law in 2022, repealed it 2 years later. Official reason is tax revenue, real reason is the strength of tobacco lobby and people needing to have some fun as New Zealand fights with massive emigration issues.

Norway is looking to ban social media for children under 16 as it joins a dozen European countries that plan to introduce age restrictions.

Comment: slowly, but surely, governments are fighting with anonymity online. These restrictions mean ID verification for social media. If nothing changes, in under 20 years all internet will be accessible only after ID verification.

Viktor Orban said he would not take his seat in parliament once it reconvenes after the recent election. He said “I am now needed not in parliament, but in the reorganization of the patriotic movement”.

Comment: not sure here, maybe he’s finally retiring?

Business, Finance & Economics

AI is still king when it comes to business and financial returns on the markets.

DeepSeek unveiled a preview of its new open source model V4. It is reported to outperform all other open sourced models. It is also the first model adapted for Huawei chips vs Nvidia.

Comment: China is trying to lessen its reliance on western high-tech.

Intel’s shares jumped by 20% after stronger than expected Q1 results and a good forecast of future sales.

Comment: sovereign wealth funds are one of the best investors.

Sony has built an AI-powered robot that can compete against and even defeat elite table tennis players. It was trained using a combo of computer simulations and analyses of expert players.

Comment: while sport is only fun because it is a display of human excellence, the progress in AI powered robotics through sports will translate to industrial use.

S&P500 and NASDAQ closed at ATHs on Friday, despite the continued blockade of the SOH.

Comment: markets will sleepwalk into a deepest recession in the recent history.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. This week I’ll try to focus on Cuba, but since its timing is highly dependent on Iran resolution, it might be delayed again in favor of tracking Iran war.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

I’ve written this article 3 times now, but the effort to get the situation right paid off. It’s all Iran and my current understanding of the situation. It’s been a difficult journey as I don’t like my conclusions, but I’ve accepted that this is where we stand now and nothing can change it.

Iran

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This is probably the most confusing situation in the recent military history. Wars are never easy to analyze, but this one is on track to become the most chaotic conflict in the modern history. Complexity arises due to economic, political and military issues influencing each other simultaneously.

Sparse signals we receive paint a rather stark picture for both sides of the conflict. At the same time, the respective points of view are misaligned, creating an environment in which all sides have clashing perceptions of their incentives and payouts. In this game of levers , pressure points and risks, there is no clear winner.

Current Situation

Current developments, if anything, do confirm that the framework I presented is sound. However, complexity makes any long, or even medium, term forecast uncertain. Short-term outlook is clear, but makes for a difficult trading environment across TradFi and prediction markets.

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Welcome to another week! This one has the potential to be historic as delegations from the US and Iran are due to meet in Islamabad to iron out the last details of a deal. That being said tensions are high and anything can happen in the next 2-5 days.

I have my own thesis on what is going on that you can read here:

But outside of Iran, plenty is happening around the world - from Cuba, to Europe, to Asia; countries continue their business and react to the unfolding situation.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The US is busy with the Iran conflict as its resolution will impact domestic policy and the upcoming midterms.

Scott Bessent said Trump’s tariffs would be restored by July after they were struck down by the SCOTUS ruling in February.

Comment: despite the ruling, some of the tariffs are still in effect and countries are expected to engage with the US to sign new deals. Once the Iran war is resolved, we will hear more about the tariff narrative, especially in connection to the upcoming trip to China.

Trump nominated Erica Schwartz, a former deputy surgeon-general and retired rear admiral, to lead CDC. If confirmed, she would be responsible for tackling the largest measles outbreak in decades.

Comment: before the Iran war took most of my capacity, I was actively tracking the measles markets. Since then the forecast decreased, but thousands of cases is still a lot. Erica is looking at a tough job, especially with anti-vaccine RFK Jr. in charge of the Health Department.

The Americas

While all eyes are on Iran, Trump is already hinting at Cuba being the next target of his military operations.

With Trump’s increasingly combatant rhetoric around Cuba, Brazil, Mexico and Spain issued a joint statement expressing deep concern over the serious humanitarian crisis on the island. They also pledged to send more aid to the blockaded country.

Comment: while it is unclear whether Cuba will clash with the US, or a simple deal will suffice, there are definitely expectations of some kind of a final showdown. Trump is eager to control Cuba, as is Marco Rubio, whose parents escaped the Cuban regime. However, contrary to Iran, this should be a walk in the park for the US.

Spain and Brazil signed 15 agreements covering critical minerals, telecoms and AI during talks of both countries’ leaders.

Comment: Lula is trying his best to build an anti-Trump coalition among LatAm and Spanish / Portuguese speaking countries as he faces a tight presidential race with Jair Bolsonaro’s son later this year. It will be one of the most consequential elections this year.

Asia

While there were no new restriction announced in Asia last week, the continent still grapples with the unfolding energy crisis.

India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party failed to pass a constitutional amendment that would have increased women’s representation in parliament and expanded its lower house from 543 seats to about 850. The legislation would have reserved a third of the seats in the enlarged chamber for women. The opposition accused the party of trying to redraw the electoral map in its favor.

Comment: I’m not well-versed in Indian politics so no proper comment here.

North Korea fired several ballistic missiles into its eastern waters. It’s the fourth time this month.

Comment: North Korea is making sure the US remembers it is a constant threat to its posture in East Asia. Small, but effective provocations to keep the US forces stretched.

Middle East & Africa

Here is where the main action is taking place.

Last week, the US blockade of Iranian ports took effect as Trump is looking to pressure IRGC into concessions.

Over the week, talks were teased, but till now all we have is a one sided announcement from the US on its delegation arriving in Islamabad today. Iranians are yet to officially confirm their attendance.

The Strait of Hormuz was announced to be opened briefly, only to be closed minutes later as the internal conflict in Iranian leadership shows itself to the world. Despite the Lebanon ceasefire in place, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in response to the US blockade. Some ships were under fire from both sides, including an Iranian and Chinese tanker, as well as a container ship.

Trump also repeatedly touted progress in talks, indicating that minor excursions are part of the negotiation, rather than a deliberate escalation aimed at resuming the hostilities.

Comment: I’ve already described my thinking in the weekly portfolio update linked at the top of the article. I think the next 2-5 days are critical, with current developments indicating intense negotiations, rather than a breakdown of talks.

A 10 day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced with Trump inviting both countries’ leaders to the White House for talks on permanent cessation of hostilities. Both sides welcomed the truce, but Netanyahu said IDF will remain ready at Lebanon’s southern border.

Trump also urged Hezbollah to restrain itself, while its leaders responded with a message aiming to restrain Israel. Later on, Trump prohibited Israel from launching attacks on Lebanon in one of his many Truth Social posts.

Comment: despite the effort, chances of Hezbollah disarmament remain low. Since this is a non-negotiable demand from Israel ,I’m curious to see how the matter can resolve beyond a short pause…

Europe

Events in Europe revolved mostly around the new Hungarian prime minister.

Peter Magyar, the new Hungarian prime minister, pledged closer ties with the EU and promised to unblock the €90bn loan to Ukraine in his first speech. He also promised to resolve the Druzhba pipeline dispute with Ukraine, hoping the country can repair it soon.

Comment: with ceasefire proving to be a remote possibility, Ukraine is in dire need of the loan to continue its effort. When it comes to Magyar, some voices are too hopeful as he is a former long-term Fidesz member that broke ties with the Orban’s party after his wife was sacked from her judicial high post.

Contrary to developments in Hungary, Bulgaria looks set to elect a Russia-friendly government.

Comment: early results indicate the pro-Russian Rumen Radev will lead Bulgaria, sustaining opposition to Ukraine war funding after Orban’s defeat.

Peter Mandelson failed background security checks before he became the ambassador to America. Mandelson was sacked late last year due to his connections to Jeffrey Epstein.

Comment: with the news out, chances of Starmer not being prime minister increased again as his government is grappling with various issues.

Business, Finance & Economics

Not a lot of news in the realm of business.

Blue Origin launched a rocket with a reused booster for the first time.

Comment: Jeff Bezos is trying to compete with Elon Musk and SpaceX, but for now he is months, or even years, behind. That being said, the gap is narrower than a few years ago, when Bezos was only starting his space exploration venture.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. I will be watching the next round of Iran negotiations closely and I expect to do a commentary video tomorrow evening on the progress. Outside of that, a deep dive on Cuba is due, especially if we get a quick peace deal in the Middle East.

The pace of developments this year is staggering and the resulting chaos is proving to be a difficult forecasting environment. That being said, after close to 4 months of 2026, a clearer picture of the US modus operandi starts to emerge for me.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

We are entering the weekend with massive developments unfolding on Iran war. While there are almost no details, there is a lot we can derive from recent action. With a proper framework at hand, the situation becomes much more clearer.

Trading journal style as usual, enjoy my thoughts and assessment coming into the weekend, when usually the situation develops fast.

Iran

I’ve shared a teaser post today:

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