I’m reviving this series as a forecast update on the global events I cover. While deep dives are great for introducing a new thesis, they are not optimal for updating—often I needed to repeat large parts of a thesis in each update as deep dives are standalone content and always require context. Now, I will be able to update you on a rolling basis and build up my theses step by step.

Today I’ll focus on the Iran war and its chances of ending. The Clarity Act and Ukraine forecasts remain stable. Look at my latest update to get up to speed:

Iran

The most recent deep dive on Iran:

And a small update:

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I’m reviving this series as a forecast update on the global events I cover. While deep dives are great for introducing a new thesis, they are not optimal for updating—often I needed to repeat large parts of a thesis in each update as deep dives are standalone content and always require context. Now, I will be able to update you on a rolling basis and build up my theses step by step.

Today I’ll focus on the Iran war and its chances of ending, the Clarity Act and the Ukraine war.

Iran

The most recent deep dive on Iran:

And a small update:

Read more

The Clarity Act market is another Trump-fueled soap opera. Every deal announcement makes the market rip up, while every leak about Trump's crypto dealings sends it off a cliff. The market went from as high as 81.5% to a low of 31.5%, to settle at 41.5% as of now.

Traders treat this market as any other legislation market. They are missing the bigger picture. There are bigger things at play here and preparations are already well underway. I’ve been building this thesis for a while and now I’m ready to share it.

What Is the Clarity Act?

The Clarity Act is a major part of a comprehensive crypto regulation push. It all started with the Genius Act. Signed last year, it provides the basis to regulate stablecoins. The two most important provisions specify:

1. Who can issue stablecoins.

2. What kind of collateral must be used when minting stablecoins.

In effect, it creates ground rules for stablecoin creation and issuance. Most importantly, it specifies that all stablecoins must be backed 1:1 with US Treasuries or cash. However, it stops at that and does not address the wider crypto market—while stablecoins are now a regulated product, the very infrastructure they rely on is still mostly unregulated.

This is where the Clarity Act comes in.

The Clarity Act goes a step further. It’s a comprehensive act that establishes a regulatory framework for the entire blockchain industry. It’s a pretty long piece of legislation that sets up rules for pretty much everything on crypto: tokens, NFTs, smart contracts, DeFi, you name it.

It divides jurisdiction over digital assets between the CFTC and the SEC, allowing for broad integration of digital assets into the overall financial system. If passed, this bill, in combination with the Genius Act, will permanently regulate the crypto industry. No more operating on guidance. No more overnight rule changes.

But you probably know that already.

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What Did You Miss (Probably)?

There are several facts and developments that are connected to the Clarity Act. In their totality they show a wider plan behind the legislation. When interests align, there’s a bigger dedication to push things through.

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Escalation trap! Some analysts are ecstatic that they predicted a return to hostilities. Now, they go a step further predicting further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, including a US invasion of Iran (sic!). I wonder what they’ll say once it’s clear there’s no US invasion coming.

The mainstream view on the situation misses the bigger picture. They still think that the purpose of this war is to beat Iran! If they dared to challenge this assumption, they’d discover that there’s much more at play. But they are too entrenched in their own ways—don’t be like them. Subscribe and see what’s really going on.

The Iran War

Background

I have repeatedly said that Iran might strike shipping in response to the Lebanon framework agreement. It was signed just a few days after the MoU and showed the cunning side of American diplomacy. At its core, the Lebanon framework agreement was signed to cooperate in restoring Lebanon’s total sovereignty and enforcing the government’s monopoly on arms.

The MoU asked the US and its allies just that. But the Lebanon framework expanded these principles in a way that they target Hezbollah now. It is a twisted interpretation of the relevant MoU clause from Iran’s point of view. Thus, escalation was inevitable.

The MoU resulted in one big win for the US. In coordination with regional governments and international organization, it was able to restore a significant part of the traffic through the strait. We went from less than 10 vessels a day (or low 20s if we approximate dark transits) to over 60 vessels a day on the best post-MoU day.

Attempting to limit the traffic through the strait was Iran’s best bet to protect its interests.

The Aim of the War

The framework from my recent article is still the best explanation of the conflict:

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Welcome to the 19th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.

For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.

By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.

Summary

June was a wild month, but this time I was ready:

1. I started June with $19,221 in my portfolio.

2. Today my portfolio stands at $22,060.

3. There were no additional capital injections.

4. Total ROIC is 14.8% for the month and for 3% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.

5. All bankroll allocations are on the basis of starting bankroll.

The Good

The best news (at least for my psyche) is that PROPHET NOTES is now in the green for the year. The plan this year was to double the bankroll and with all the lessons 2026 brought, I can say I’m on track to achieve that. Especially since I’m back to fully trusting my research and my gut.

The majority of my gains came from the Strait of Hormuz markets. Despite having a complete thesis and model for the Iran war, I’m sticking to the markets that have resolutions grounded in the reality. I’ve been burnt enough trying to play Trump’s yapping and I’m better off leaving this to swing traders. My deal-related holdings in June were minimal.

Additionally I have a great pipeline of new research that should keep me (and you) busy through the next couple of months.

The Bad

I should have put more on the US not winning the World Cup! But jokes aside, it was a great month. Even though I was extremely busy, the overall result is great. I have nothing to add here besides that I’m looking to keep up the good mental state and great execution that I had in June

Bankroll Comments

I have 45% of my bankroll available for trading. I’t a good improvement vs end of May, but I’m still below my sweet spot when it comes to the utilization. However, with a good research pipeline I’m aiming to allocate at least 15% towards new markets and keep the 30% for unexpected occasions.

Wrap Up

That’s all for today. As I’ve said before, new research is coming, but I need to keep you in the dark for just a bit longer before I can tease what it is.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

This year has been different. Ever since the kidnapping of Maduro, we have been living at the mercy of American foreign policy. It seems like a perfect environment for geopolitics traders - plenty of complex global events combined with the global rise of prediction markets.

At the same time, Polymarket enjoys record-high volumes this year. Outside of sports, geopolitics represents one of the biggest categories on the platform. And yet, plenty of whales and sharp traders focusing on geopolitics have suffered heavy losses this year.

The reason is simple. Along with the rising popularity of prediction markets and record high significance of geopolitics in our lives, came misinformation. Trump announced an imminent Iran MoU over 39 times before it finally happened. The Strait of Hormuz has been opened several times, and yet there’s little traffic to show for it. Axios turned from a respectable publication to a meme. Not only traders, but also mainstream analysts are consistently wrong on the most important matters around the Iran war.

Somehow, a seemingly perfect environment for trading turned into a cursed one. But it doesn’t need to stay that way. At least for you.

What Has Changed?

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To understand an action, you need to understand the purpose. A week and a half ago we learned of an MoU between the US and Iran. It was my outlier scenario.

It is pretty clear that Trump needed a deal more so than I estimated. My portfolio was well-positioned for the move. I recognized the risk and held most of my capital in the Strait-of-Hormuz-related markets.

Now, since we have a deal that introduces a somewhat new concept around the SOH, in addition to affirming the status quo, I need to update the model I created to analyze the conflict. On the one hand, we have a theoretically open SOH. On the other hand, the flow is being actively limited by IRGC strikes and the traffic is predominantly outbound.

How does it fit into my mental model? Does it render it moot? Or does it fit well into my long-term assumptions?

The Strait of Hormuz

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Welcome to the 18th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.

For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.

By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.

Summary

May proved to be a volatile month due to the Iran war, but my P&L grew regardless:

1. I started May with $17,700 in my portfolio.

2. Today my portfolio stands at $19,221.

3. There were no additional capital injections.

4. Total ROIC is 8.6% for the month and for -10.1% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.

5. All bankroll allocations are on the basis of starting bankroll.

The Good

I finally figured out my mistakes with the Iran war trading. I’m back to fully listening to my research, rather than trying to fit my trading to what I wanted to happen.

The first good thing was abandoning permanent peace Yes positions at slight profit, rather than riding them to the end, hoping for a big win. Trying to catch these falling knives hurt my performance in the previous month, as without trading this market, I would have been in profit.

The second good thing was sticking to my research when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz traffic and Iran airspace closure. While the latter resolved in June, I had most of my positions for May strikes. The former, for now, is an evergreen trade.

The third good thing was holding the Ukraine war ceasefire Yes on the end of June market. I had a very different idea in mind when I bought these shares, and while I don’t agree with the resolution process, I’m happy I pocketed some money there. Especially since I’ve been hurt several times by a wrong resolution.

Ultimately, I think I had a trust issue with my research after a string of negative variance. Since the beginning of May, I’m back to a stable growth path when it comes to my P&L and I’m planning to sustain it in the future.

The Bad

I don’t think I had any huge mistakes last month. The only thing I could have done better was selling my permanent peace Yes shares earlier, in profit.

Bankroll Comments

I have 64% of my bankroll to allocate at the moment. Most of May, though, I was running on around 30% of bankroll available. I’m now looking for more niche Iran markets, as well as other global events to increase my bankroll allocation.

Overall, I’m satisfied with the utilization of the bankroll in May. It was approaching 80%, which I consider most optimal; it’s a good balance between having liquidity to enter new markets and utilizing the size I have. However, since most of the markets I trade now are short-term, spikes in bankroll utilization will happen.

Wrap Up

That’s it for today. I’ll publish a separate portfolio update over the weekend to dive deeper into the positions I’m holding and explore some new ideas.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Not a single analysis of the Iran war I read bothered to offer a forecast of the future. All of them tried to explain Trump’s actions. All of them judged these actions. All of them provided a set of supposedly better solutions. But none offered a view of the post-war Middle East.

How can you judge current actions if you don’t know the goal? How can you explain them?

These experts think that a simple note that the war will end with a deal of sorts is enough. It isn’t. Iran is a country of almost 90 million people. Like it or not, it has a future. It has a role to play in the Middle East.

Any analysis trying to explain the current war needs to answer one simple question. What does the post-war order in the Middle East look like?

War

War is often misunderstood. We know it mostly from history books and news. Almost exclusively it was a war of conquest. One country trying to beat the other, extract labor and resources and expand its sphere of influence.

However, wars of today are different.

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There comes a time in every trader’s life when a profound realization of stupidity hits you. It’s not a singular event. Rather, it comes from time to time, especially after a not so good performance.

I’m at this point now. Contrary to what you might think, it’s a good feeling. But… Why am I here?

Iran

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