Welcome to another week! I hope my American readers had a blast during 4th of July festivities. Now, though, it’s time to catch up with the world. Plenty has happened in the last week and this week, even more can happen.

We have a NATO summit this week in Ankara, on top of continued US-Iran engagements and usual domestic developments across the world.

Let’s take a look a the news, and the markets trading on it!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

SCOTUS has been busy recently. This week, it granted Trump sweeping authority to sack the heads of independent government agencies. In effect, SCOTUS overturned a 91-year-old precedent, Humphrey's Executor. Trump called it the greatest increase in presidential power in the last 100 years.

Comment: Trump now has the outmost control over government agencies like SEC or FTC, the latter being the cause of the whole hearing. However, the ruling does not give the same power when it comes to the Fed. Lisa Cook is safe.

SOCTUS blocked an executive order that would have denied birthright citizenship to the children of undocumented migrants in a separate ruling.

Comment: it was a widely expected decision.

Trump earned more than $1.4 billion from his crypto ventures in 2025, according to a new disclosure. He earned close to another billion from his other businesses.

Comment: it’s no shocker that Trump is using his position to enrich his family.

America’s economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below expectations.

Comment: a weak job market lowered expectations of a Fed hike this year. However, the job market has been weak for quite some time now with previous prints being adjusted lower as time went by. Now the Fed is in a difficult position: should it put pressure on inflation or let it run hot (again) to try and save the labor market? Kevin Warsh is in a difficult spot.

Americans celebrated their country’s 250th birthday. The festivities, however, were limited due to extreme heat.

Comment: various politicians, including Trump, JD Vance and Mamdani, made big speeches on the occasion. However, the day went by with no major announcements.

The Americas

The Trump admin said it would pursue separate trade deals with Mexico and Canada as the USMCA is set to expire this year. The deal will now be reviewed annually.

Comment: the Trump admin has been clear that it wants to renegotiate the deal. It has been pressuring both Canada and Mexico as it wants to extract more concessions from its trading partners, the Alberta independence vote being one of the levers.

Asia

The yen has sunk to a 40-year low against the dollar, driving up import costs and squeezing profit margins in Japan. Satsuki Katayama, the country’s finance minister, vowed to take decisive steps with America’s treasury to prop up the currency.

Comment: Japan is in a tough spot. If they decide to rise the interest rates they risk causing a global financial recession as Japan has been the global lender for the past few decades. Maneuvering between fx markets and rising inflation is becoming increasingly hard.

Afghanistan launched strikes at targets in Pakistan after Pakistani airstrikes hit the country earlier. The countries had agreed to a ceasefire last year, but fighting has continued to break out since then.

Comment: this low-intensity conflict has been going on for months. Sadly, we lack markets for it since the end of June.

Middle East & Africa

Iran and America held indirect talks in Doha. A Qatari spokesman said negotiators made positive progress and that the next round of talks is planned after the Khamenei funeral.

However, Iran is refusing to hold direct talks until terms of the MoU were fully met. Iran is accusing the US of breaching the memorandum by signing the Lebanon framework with Israel. Iran is tightening its control over the Strait of Hormuz as a response.

Comment: it was a quiet week in the Middle East compared to 2026 baseline. However, the Strait of Hormuz, while not entirely closed, still sees less than 30% of usual flow. I believe that the apparent brake will end once the Khamenei funeral is over and the World Cup in the US wraps up.

The Iran war situation continues to be extremely volatile. It is clearly seen in the markets as traders struggle to properly price events with little available information. I wrote an article about it last week:

Six days of formal ceremonies have begun on Saturday to commemorate Khamenei. His body will be transferred across several Iranian cities before being buried on Thursday. Up to 20 million people are expected to visit the coffin in Tehran alone. However, Mojtaba Khamenei will not be one of them.

Comment: we have a short vacation now. Action in the Middle East should resume around July 19th.

Netanyahu asserted that IDF would not leave southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is eliminated. He visited the occupied territory on Tuesday. Separately, America’s House of Representatives failed to pass a war-powers resolution that would have required Congress to approve any American involvement in Israeli military operations in Lebanon.

Comment: on top of everything that has happened, Netanyahu needs to show his strength ahead of the legislative election. Traders now put him behind Gadi Eizenkot in the race for the premiership.

Europe

Russia has continued to attack Ukraine, and Kiev in particular, throughout the week. At the same time, Ukraine continued to hit targets deep in Russia, most recently hitting a refinery in St. Petersburg.

Comment: with the recent developments in Russia, particularly closing the borders with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan, traders expect another round of escalations, rather than a quick peace deal. This summer looks ripe for last-ditch effort.

This week we have a NATO summit in Ankara. Trump is expected to meet Zelensky there and talk about ending the Ukraine war. Additionally, I expect the conversations to revolve around the Iran war and the recent US soft exit from the alliance.

Comment: I don’t expect any major announcements to be made.

Andy Burnham, while slow on his Cabinet picks, began to set out his policy agenda. He pledged to gradually increase public control of utilities, boost local government funding and shift power over economic policy away from London.

Comment: prediction markets are mostly focused on his picks for the Great Offices of State, where Burnham is slow to confirm anyone. When it comes to his overall policies, no major deviation from the Labour Party agenda is expected.

Staying in Britain, Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform UK party, has mounting problems. While his party is leading in the polls, he was referred to Parliament’s standards watchdog for failing to declare benefits from a political ally. He is already facing a probe for not declaring a separate £5 million ($6.7 million) gift from a donor. He denies any wrongdoing.

Comment: just as with Trump, the UK deep state is trying its best to prevent Farage from being able to take power.

Germany’s ruling coalition agreed on a package of reforms, including a €10 billion ($11 billion) in tax cuts for low earners. It also decided on changes to the pension system and hiring-and-firing rules.

Comment: I don’t think these reforms will do nay material difference for the Germany’s economy. It is still on the path of decline and facing maounting threats from China.

Alexandru Munteanu quit as Moldova’s prime minister, triggering the fall of his government. The announcement comes after several government officials were accused of corruption.

Comment: this surely puts a dent in Moldova’s efforts to join the EU.

Other

Cape Verde almost beat Argentina in the Round of 32. Ultimately, after a 111th minute own goal, Cape Verde lost 3-2. In another World Cup news, Balogun, a top US striker, is now expected to play against Belgium in the Round of 16 after FIFA allowed his red card suspension to expire.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! You can expect a monthly recap of my trading tomorrow. Other than that, the content in production is in no state to announce a publication. However, I’m working on an interesting piece that I plan to tease more in the coming days.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! Last one was extremely volatile. Between the Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon and all the other global events, we got little breathing room.

It has also been a wild week on prediction markets. Not only geopolitical, but also tech markets experienced massive volatility. All in all, we are in a very intense period ahead of the more relaxed schedule come July.

Let’s take a look at the markets and make sense of the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Senate voted 50-48 to pas a war powers resolution that seeks to limit Trump from taking further military action against Iran without Congressional approval.

Comment: the resolution is mostly meaningless as Trump can simply veto it. While it is a strong statement, it doesn’t really change the reality on the ground. Especially since the US is not actually looking to fight again based on traders’ assessment of the situation.

A federal judge barred Trump from requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote. The president is separately pressuring the Senate to pass a bill containing that requirement.

Comment: traders doubt that Trump will manage to push the act through Congress. Ultimately, it seems that the cause is dead ahead of the midterms.

Inflation rate reached its highest level in more than three years, rising to 4.2% in May, up from 3.8% in April. The increase was largely driven by the Iran war’s impact on energy prices.

Comment: traders now see 45% chance of a rate hike by October meeting. Not really changed since the inflation print as earlier we got the PCE print which is the preferred inflation measure of the Fed. PCE was also the highest in years.

The Trump admin asked OpenAI to restrict the release of its latest model, GTP 5.6, to government-approved partners before fully rolling it out. This is the second model, after Claude Mythos, to have been restricted by America.

Comment: I’m not sure wether the current US approach to AI is the correct one. Other countries can already use both US and Chinese models that prove to be very effective.

On the same note, the Trump admin allowed Anthropic to release Mythos 5 to about 100 trusted partners, including companies and government agencies.

Comment: moving forward, we can expect all US frontier models to be heavily restricted for the common folk…

SCOTUS issued several rulings in line with the Trump admin’s views. It determined that migrants could not claim asylum if they did not physically enter the country, enabling them to be turned back at the border. It also scrapped protections of Haitians’ and Syrians’ rights to work and live in the country. And it struck down a law restricting the right to carry guns in Hawaii.

Comment: small wins matter.

The Americas

Keiko Fujimori has all but officially won Peru presidential election. Roberto Sanchez, her rival, alleged that the election is fraudulent, but he lacked any proof.

Comment: has had her at 99c since the election night.

Two big earthquakes struck Venezuela. The most recent count put the death at over 1,500 and injuries at 3,300. The rescue operations are still ongoing. The UN Development Program estimates that the economic impact of the disaster may amount to roughly 6% of GDP. The two earthquakes are the country’s largest and possibly the deadliest in over a century.

Comment: my thoughts and prayers are with the people of Venezuela.

Manuel Adorni, the chief of staff to Javier Milei, resigned. He is under investigation for graft, including lavish trips and the purchase of a flat at a suspiciously low price. The scandal, which broke out in March, has impacted Milei’s popularity.

Comment: usual day in politics. The crisis will pass.

Asia

Kim Keon Hee, a former first lady of South Korea, was sentenced to seven years in jail for receiving bribes.She is married to the former president, Yoon Suk Yeol, who was ousted and subsequently jailed after declaring martial law in 2024.

Comment: they went after Yoon hard. The fact that they punished his family shows that South Koreans took the insurrection extremely seriously.

Australia will double the maximum penalty for companies failing to enforce its under-16 social media ban to around A$99 million ($68 million). It claims that platforms are not complying with the rules.

Comment: the more resistance to these laws, the better. Access to information shouldn’t be regulated.

Middle East & Africa

This week revolved around the Strait of Hormuz. Initially, we saw a big surge in traffic. However, by the middle of the week, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s lead negotiator, said Iran will administer the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has also agreed to set up a telephone hotline for ships passing through the waterway.

This happened as the IMO corridor saw mored than 60 vessels using it in 24 hours.

America also lifted sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemical exports for 60 days, in line with the MoU.

On Thursday, however, shipping was halted after a Singapore-flagged cargo ship came under attack. The attack came after IRGC threatened all the ships that are crossing the strait without coordinating it with Iran.

The attack was followed by an American response, which was later followed by strike son several American military bases in the region. Both countries continued to trade blows into the weekend despite the ceasefire agreement.

Finally, just before the markets open, America and Iran have reportedly agreed to stand down and continue the negotiations.

On the other side of the Middle East, America, Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement. In it, the three countries agree to cooperate in an effort to restore Lebanon’s government monopoly on arms and full territorial sovereignty.

Comment: the Iranian escalation had most likely resulted from their need to manage the flow through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the subsequent strikes in my opinion resulted from the Lebanon framework. It is essentially a declaration of war on Hezbollah, that technically does not violate the Iran MoU. I write and say more about the Iran war in my recent video and article:

Europe

Ukraine attacked Crimea with drones, hitting a large power plant and leaving Sevastopol without power. Crimea has been under constant attack for months as it is strategically important for the Russian military supply chains.

Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Russia was facing fuel shortages after Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. He said though that the problem was not critical and that his forces would continue to attack Ukraine.

Comment: as both countries escalate, chances for a sustained ceasefire remain extremely low. At 26% chance by the end of the year, the forecast reflects the reality on the ground: after four years of a war of attrition, both sides are tired, but unwilling to compromise. Quite the contrary: they are escalating.

France said it is evaluating its response after Burkina Faso severed diplomatic ties. Burkina Faso, a former French colony, accuses France of supporting terrorists and subversive networks in the West African country.

Comment: as I’ve been saying for over a year now: Africa is extremely important as it is resource-rich. We will have wars there. These are some of the signs.

Andy Burnham was sworn in as a member of Parliament. He is now all but confirmed to replace Keir Starmer. Now the main questions revolve around his cabinet picks.

Comment: his top picks are a small divergence from the Starmer cabinet. Only the Chancellor of the Exchequer is expected to be replaced with Ed Miliband, a staunch left-winger, as a favorite to take the job. One must wander though, what was Wes Streeting promised in return for abandoning Starmer…

Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s president, said he would resign in the next few weeks and trigger early elections. His term had been due to expire in 2027. His announcement was unexpected.

Comment: the protest in the country were slowly losing steam. I’m not sure what prompted him to resign now, but we will see what will come out of it in the next few weeks.

Whole Europe saw record-breaking temperatures this week, prompting big AC debates on X (sic!).

Temperatures approached, and in some cases exceeded, 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit).

Comment: the sudden heatwave caused a fast drought in Europe. You can see the change in color in France in less than a month. Crops season will be devastating, but maybe we will get a strong, good wine as a consolation prize…

Finland’s unemployment rate reached 12.7% in May, the highest since 2000. The country now has the highest joblessness rate in the EU, surpassing Spain. Its economy relies heavily on exports, particularly that of metals and petrochemicals and has suffered from weak demand and disruptions relating to war in Ukraine and Iran.

Comment: young Finns, compared to young Spaniards, have a higher chance to enroll in the army as Finland is bordering with Russia, which has recently threatened to deploy more forces to the border after Finland eased the regulations on import and transit of nuclear weapons.

Volkswagen aims to cut up to 100,000 jobs, double what was previously suggested.

Comment: the German giant simply can’t keep up with the Chinese under the current economic and tariff regime. That’s what years of neglect cause…

Others

Apple raised prices for iPads and MacBooks by around 20% worldwide blaming an unprecedented increase in the cost of memory and storage chips. AI labs are buying out all the capacity. iPhone prices are left unchanged (for now).

Comment: at least chances are we will see some innovation from Apple this year.

Cape Verde, an island nation of around 500,000 people, advanced past the group stage in the World Cup, shocking the markets a bit.

In another World Cup news, Lionel Messi became the World Cup’s highest-ever goal scorer. He now has 18 goals and counting. However, Kylian Mbappe is just two goals behind him.

Comment: are you enjoying the World Cup? Post in the comments who you are rooting for!

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’ve pushed the last week’s deep dive to the Portfolio Update. However, I do have a longer piece that I’m writing and hopefully I’ll manage to publish it this week.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! Last one was dominated by the Iran MoU narrative. However, as usual recently, nothing is as it seems. The US says the Strait of Hormuz is open, while AIS data and ship trackers tell a different story.

Outside of the Iran war, we had some escalations between Russia and Ukraine, as well as a G7 summit in France, where both wars were discussed. Finally, among big news, Keir Starmer has resigned from office, ending a months-long saga.

This and more in today’s Global Outlook!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

A B-52 bomber crashed after taking off from Edwards Air Force Base in California, killing eight people aboard. The Stratofortress was on a routine test mission. Two of the dead were employees of Boeing.

Comment: not sure what to think about this one. Probably a mistake rather than some deliberate action. RIP to all the people inside.

General Motors and Lockheed Martin announced a partnership to boost weapons production in America. The Pentagon facilitated the deal where LM will invest $9 billion on modernizing facilities over four years while GM will invest $7 billion on R&D.

Comment: all these wars surely put American MIC on full capacity. No wonder they need to invest in capacity expansion.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. Nine out of 19 officials forecast at least one rate hike this year though. However, Kevin Warsh did not submit his guidance, inducing a bit of volatility into market expectations.

Comment: hike expectations are pretty much unchanged since early June. Traders still see 61% chance we will see a rate hike this year. However, 61% means that we are barely above coin-flip odds. Despite the headlines, it will be global volatility that will dictate the rates.

The FBI said it thwarted an attack on the White House during Trump’s birthday celebrations. They said that a drone attack was planned on an UFC cage fight. Five people were arrested.

Comment: what can I say, Trump is a polarizing figure…

SCOTUS ruled that marijuana users should not be barred from owning guns, siding unanimously with a man who was charged with illegally possessing a firearm after admitting to regularly using cannabis. Justices argued that such a ban would violate constitutional gun rights.

Comment: SCOTUS also argued that since most states have legalized cannabis to some degree, “marijuana use today is like alcohol use at the founding”. It paves the way for weed rescheduling and traders noticed that, increasing the Yes price from 28c to 32c.

The Americas

Abelardo de la Espriella won the presidential run-off election in Colombia. After an initial count he got 49.7% of the vote vs 48.7% for Ivan Cepeda.

Comment: traders saw that coming after Abelardo unexpectedly won the first round, giving him around 90% chance to win the run-off. Trump must be happy now since the president elect is a right-winger.

Asia

China imposed export controls on two American rare earth firms, among others, in another small escalation of the trade war between the two countries.

Comment: the news had little effect on overall tariff agreement chances. With Xi’s visit to DC later this year, traders remain extremely bullish on a deal happening this year.

Middle East & Africa

This week was all about the MoU between the US and Iran. The details of the deal emerged gradually as Trump made various comments during the G7 summit in France. His visit commenced in him signing the deal, however no Iranian representative was present at the time to sign it along.

However, shortly after the Pakistan prime minister announced that Iran had also signed the deal. The difference is that while Trump touts the agreement as a major victory, Iran is still waiting for a ceasefire in Lebanon to implement the pre-agreed clauses.

Israel is obviously furious with the deal as it promises a lot of wins for Iran (release of frozen assets, sanctions relief, etc.), while it ties Israel’s hands when it comes to Hezbollah. JD Vance is the one to push back on these claims.

The US also lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports, but outside of that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as Israel and Hezbollah continue fighting. Even a ceasefire failed to stop either.

Finally, JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner travelled to Switzerland and held talks with the Iranian delegation. However, nothing constructive came out of the talks and we await any progress.

Comment: a slop deal has been signed. However, a slop deal does not resolve the underlying issues between the US, Israel and Iran. Thus nothing material has changed. More on the Iran war tomorrow.

Europe

The G7 summit in France saw world leaders talk about the Iran war and the Ukraine war. Trump even said that “maybe we can do something” about the Ukraine war and that Russia should make a deal. He talked with Zelensky and supposedly both reached a deeper understanding when it comes to the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Comment: strongly worded statements do not change anything. Traders still see little chance for a sustained ceasefire in Ukraine this year.

Ukraine attacked Moscow with nearly 200 drones. Zelensky said it was a response to Russia’s attack on Kyiv earlier in the week.

Comment: this summer we should see an escalation in the war. Both sides feel the attrition and without any breakthrough neither can hope for a good deal.

The European Parliament voted to allow countries to open “return hubs” outside EU borders. Illegal migrants may be held there while awaiting deportation or detained indefinitely.

Comment: the public backlash needed to be addressed. The EU is slowly changing course on migration as right-wing parties rise. However, it might be too late to prevent the right-wing rise.

Keir Starmer has resigned from office after Andy Burnham won his Makerfield by-election. Starmer faced mounting pressure for months and Andy’s victory finally tipped the scales.

Comment: it’s been long time coming.

World, Business, Finance & Economics

SpaceX agreed to buy Anysphere for $60 billion, the creator of Cursor, a popular tool for coding with AI.

Comment: well-spent IPO funds? I don’t think so. But maybe Grok will finally improve…

Intel stock rose by almost 11% after Trump said that the company would partner with Apple to design and make semiconductors in America.

Comment: it pays to hold any company with government stake.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! We’re back to regular programing after my trip. Jet lag is still an issue, but with my time free, expect a deep dive tomorrow, a video during the week and a portfolio update on Friday.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! We seem to have peace, but do we really? It’s been a wild week with developments across geopolitics, tech and AI. At the same time, I’ve been on the Manifest conference where I met plenty of traders that I talk with on a daily basis online.

I’m planning to write something about my experience and observations so stay tuned. Now, since the article is already late, let’s get up to speed with the world.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

A federal judge ruled that Trump’s proposed $100,000 charge on new applications for H-1B visas in unlawful after several states sued the Trump admin post-fee announcement.

Comment: the fee was not being paid anyway. Just another useless battle…

The Pentagon added dozens of Chinese businesses to its list of firms that threaten national security. The list includes BYD, Alibaba and Baidu. As a result, these companies will be barred from doing business with America’s armed forces.

Comment: reporting claims that this action might complicate upcoming summits between Trump and Xi. However, the top firms mentioned already did little business with the armed forces.

Graham Platner became the Democratic candidate for the Senate in Maine after sweeping the primary, securing nearly 75% of the vote. He will now face the Republican incumbent, Susan Collins, in the midterms.

Comment: traders project that Platner has a decent chance in flipping the seat. This is one of the most important races as Democrats are trying to gain control of the Senate in the upcoming midterms.

Trump nominated Jay Clayton, one of New York’s top federal prosecutors, to be the next director of national intelligence. A former chairman of the SEC is considered a better candidate than the acting director Pulte, who received a lot of backlash in the recent weeks.

Comment: I don’t have anything in particular to say here as I’m not really familiar with Clayton.

The Americas

Trump said he was not looking to renew USMCA. Canada, Mexico and the US must extend the deal by July 1st or face annual reviews. Trump claimed that America does not need anything that Canada or Mexico produce (sic!).

Comment: USMCA was not the deal Trump was hoping to make when he exited NAFTA during his first term. However, saying that the US doesn’t need anything Canada or Mexico produce is a straight lie. Even such a simple resource as Canadian oil is necessary for US energy industry as crucial mixer to the US light-sweet oil. As I’ve repeatedly highlighted, Trump is just putting pressure on America’s trading partners to extract better terms. Looking at the situation now, I believe that he is looking to finally split the deal into 2 separate agreements, something he initially aimed to do.

Trump said that American armed forces had executed Hector Guerrero Flores, better known as Niño Guerrero, head of Tren De Aragua, a Venezuelan gang. Trump said that the airstrike had been coordinated with Venezuela.

Comment: mostly a PR win as it hardly disables the organization.

We had a presidential election run-off in Peru. The vote was extremely close, to the point where the leftist candidate, Roberto Sanchez, asked Keiko Fujimori, his right-wing rival to jointly request a recount. With close to 99% of the vote counted, Keiko is only 25,000 votes ahead.

Comment: while media presents the count as contested and controversial, traders are virtually sure Keiko will be the winner.

Asia

Pakistan said it killed at least 26 militants from Afghanistan in air strikes at the border. The Afghan Taliban disputed the account.

Comment: it’s a bit forgotten conflict amid all the tensions in the Middle East. But it does play a part in the grander scheme of things. Remember that Pakistan is the key mediator in the US-Iran war and it is hardly objective.

Indonesia’s central bank raised interest rates by 0.25 pp, to 5.5%, a week before its next scheduled meeting.

Comment: the rupiah fell a lot vs USD since the Iran war had started. The central bank is trying to protect the currency, but it can only do so much in the face of structural problems…

Seven people and two companies were charged over a fire at a housing complex in Hong Kong that killed 168 people in November. The defendants were involved in renovations of the buildings. The charges, including manslaughter and conspiracy to defraud, are the first to come out of a months-long inquiry into the blaze.

Comment: while not a very consequential global event, it will be an interesting case study. Initially, bamboo scaffolding was blamed for the spread of fire in an effort to ban it. I’m monitoring the case to showcase how a change in regulation can be forced by various groups of interest, in this case the producers of metal scaffolding.

A court in South Korea sentenced Yoon Suk Yeol, a former president, to 30 years in prison on charges related to sending drones into North Korea. Prosecutors argued Mr Yoon ordered the operation to provoke North Korea, giving him a pretext to declare martial law in December 2024.

Comment: in case you missed it, Koreans are making an example out of Yoon to prevent any future coups.

Middle East & Africa

It’s been a wild week in the Middle East. We started with strikes between Israel and Iran, that were a response to the violation of a ceasefire in Lebanon. While both sides quickly agreed to stop them, the US launched strikes on Iran shortly after, as tensions rose in the region.

The whole situation seemed to be escalating as neither side seemed to be ready to give up. We even ended up with Iranian strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain. However, as the weekend began, we started to hear of yet another imminent deal.

Many traders doubted the narrative, but we ended up with both sides announcing an agreement has been reached. We have an official signing ceremony scheduled for Friday. However, a series of issue persist.

On the one hand, we have an unresolved situation in Lebanon. Israel seems eager to continue its campaign there, in defiance of a supposed deal.

On the other hand, there still seems to be a lot of doubt about the Strait of Hormuz issue, despite Trump’s claims that it will be ope to all this week.

We are yet to hear the details of the presumed deal.

Comment: I’m writing an article on the current situation. I’ve already explored a “fake deal” scenario in my previous deep dives, but now it’s time to actually delve deeper into what it means for the future of this conflict, and the region.

Europe

Zelensky met with the leaders of Britain, France and Germany in London. After the meeting, they issued a joint statement on the ceasefire proposal that didn’t really differ from anything we’ve seen in the last year or so.

Comment: even this week’s G7 summit won’t really change anything. Only the continued strike campaign on Russian energy infra can force the situation to break out of the current stalemate.

Zelensky also said the army will raise wages and try to recruit more volunteer fighters from abroad. Monthly wages for most soldiers will rise by a third, to around $700, while frontline troops will receive about $7,000 a month.

Comment: since the European loan of €90 billion is on, Ukraine has the official funding to utilize in its defensive campaign. But the fact that recruitment is focused on foreigners indicates there is a real shortage of willing fighters that can impact negotiations a few months down the line.

Latvia’s defence ministry said NATO jets shot down a drone that entered the country’s airspace from Russia. Officials did not say whether it was Ukrainian or Russian.

Comment: both sides have their struggles. For me it means that we should see a new push to break the stalemate this summer. It remains to be seen if it’s a new front from the north to put pressure on Kiev, or an op to disrupt the NATO supply chains.

The EU proposed to ban all Russian soldiers who have served in Ukraine from entering the bloc. The move is part of a new round of sanctions to be voted on by member states.

Comment: the EU’s actions continue to show commitment to Ukraine, raising chances we will see Ukraine’s accession to the union eventually.

Anti-immigrant protest broke out in Belfast, Northern Ireland after a man was seriously injured in a stabbing by a Sudanese migrant. Police used water cannon to disperse rioters during a second night of unrest in Belfast. A crowd threw bricks, stones and bottles at officers trying to control anti-immigration demonstrations that had turned violent.

Comment: business as usual in the UK, I would say…

Keir Starmer appointed Dan Jarvis as Britain’s defense secretary, hours after John Healey resigned from the position. Mr Healey said that a planned increase in defense spending would fall well short of what the armed forces require.

Comment: the resignation from the Cabinet are a continued signal that Starmer is on his way out.

Britain’s economy shrank by 0.1% in April, its first monthly contraction since August, as the Iran war’s impact began to be felt. Output in the services sector fell by 0.2%, outweighing modest growth in manufacturing.

Comment: my thesis on the SOH closure having adverse effect on the global economy over the long-term is slowly starting to materialize.

Fidesz reelected Viktor Orban as its leader with the support of 729 of 737 delegates. Orban announced an organizational overhaul of the party in a response to the defeat in April’s election.

Comment: seems like our guy is not retiring after all. Hungarian politics will continue to be interesting for the foreseeable future.

Swiss voters rejected, by nearly 55% to 45%, a proposal to cap the country’s population at 10 million. The defeat is a blow to the anti-immigration Swiss People’s Party.

Comment: it went pretty much as traders expected it would.

World, Business, Finance & Economics

SpaceX raised $75 billion in the world’s biggest IPO. It ended Friday session valued at $2.1 trillion, making Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.

Comment: traders see a fair chance we could go even higher than that.

OpenAI filed for an IPO as well, trying to keep up pace with xAI, which is part of SpaceX and Anthropic, which filed for an IPO last week.

Comment: traders, however, are not so confident we will see the long-awaited IPO this year, with chances of one by the end of September only at 25%.

Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, a safeguarded Mythos-class model, only to have it banned by the US government days later. It came after Dario Amodei himself said that governments should be able to block public releases of some models if independent audits determine them to be too risky. How ironic, huh?

Comment: the US government deems Mythos-class model as national security risk and wants them to be available to US citizens only. I posted some of my thoughts here:

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’m still on my trip in the California time zone so articles will be slightly delayed. However, I aim to publish a piece on the Iran deal, as well as some other trading thoughts this week.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! Monday started with the news of strikes between Israel and Iran. Small kinetic action is back, but nothing is as it seems. The Ukraine war is also getting interesting as Zelensky asked for a meeting with Putin.

Let’s take a look at the markets and get up to speed with the world.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Trump picked Bill Pulte, head of a federal housing agency, to become the acting Director of National Intelligence. He has no previous national security experience.

Comment: Pulte is not expected to be a permanent pick. However, traders project that no other pick will be announced this year. It means that effectively, Pulte is not the Director for the foreseeable future. Pulte is a Trump loyalist thus expect him to do Trump’s bidding.

Trump signed an executive order requesting AI companies allow the government to vet powerful models 30 days before their release to the public (or any other company). It’s a scaled back version of the previous proposal.

Comment: the order claims voluntary cooperation with AI companies and traders are debating whether it is enough to resolve the market. Seems like not enough considering the current price and the fact that there is no enforcement on voluntary cooperation.

Republicans in the Senate voted down a Democratic attempt to block Trump’s proposed $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund. The DOJ has already said it has abandoned the plan.

Comment: the plan to extract government money failed.

Trump insisted that raising interest rates would be the wrong thing to do after a strong jobs report raised speculation that the Fed could tighten monetary policy by the end of the year.

Comment: Kevin Warsh is in a difficult spot. Despite the pressure, there is 60% chance that he will raise the rates by the end of the year. As I’ve repeatedly written, the Fed will be very interesting to watch now.

The Americas

Mastercard and Visa are fleeing Cuba as America tightens sanctions on the country. They suspended transactions for non-American visitors. Iberostar and Melia, Spanish hotel giants, said they are pulling out of managing at least a dozen Cuban hotels each.

Comment: there are only 10% chances for an economic agreement by the end of the month. This aligns with my initial research on the topic. Cuba will take time.

Asia

Xi is visiting North Korea this week for the first time since 2019. It will be his first overseas trip this year. In March train services between the two countries resumed after a six-year suspension.

Comment: tighter cooperation is coming.

Middle East & Africa

The US and Iran continued to exchange fire last week. There were strikes on Qeshm Island, Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain and Israel. The escalation follows Israeli strikes on Beirut, an Iranian red line. This comes despite the recent extension of the Lebanon ceasefire.

Exchange of fire between Iran and Israel continues as I write this outlook.

Trump is trying to distance the US from the strikes, claiming he urged Netanyahu not to retaliate. Additionally, the US reportedly didn’t take part in the recent escalation. Iran requires a ceasefire in Lebanon to continue the negotiations.

Comment: I wrote a deep dive on the Iran war last week. This escalation is Iran forcing the Lebanon issue back on the table. Regional spheres of influence are back in play for the MoU:

Europe

Zelensky called for face-to-face talks with Putin. In a letter, Zelensky proposed meeting in a third country, with the starting point of the negotiations being the front line today. Zelensky also said that negotiations must involve Europe, with America’s focus on Iran. Putin rejected the proposal, seeing no point in the meeting.

Comment: something is happening. Either the rejection is performative or Russia has a new operation ready to launch.

Russia accused Ukraine of launching an unprecedented attack on St Petersburg. The Kremlin said more than 140 drones were shot down in the region. Yesterday, Zelensky met with leaders from Britain, France and Germany to discuss the war effort.

Comment: same old, same old.

JD Vance blamed the murder on Henry Nowak in Britain on a mass invasion of migrants, echoing Nigel Farage. Henry Nowak was handcuffed by police after being stabbed by a Sikh man falsely accusing him of racism. His death sparked violent protests.

Comment: never a bad day to advance your political goals.

World, Business, Finance & Economics

El Nino, the weather pattern which raises global temperatures and alters rainfall, is expected to start imminently, according to the World Meteorological Organization. It could be the strongest such event in decades. It could substantially increase the risks of extreme weather such as droughts and torrential rainfall over the next nine to twelve months.

Comment: despite the warnings, traders still believe 2026 won’t be the hottest on record. However, volatile weather, combined with the shortage of fertilizer, can be devastating for this year’s harvest.

SpaceX unveiled plans to raise $75 billion in an IPO. This would be the biggest IPO ever and it would value SpaceX at almost $1.77 trillion.

Comment: traders expect the closing market cap to be in the $2-2.5 trillion range.

Blackstone is limiting withdrawals from its $45 billion private credit fund, after investors attempted to pull out $4.5 billion in Q1. Partners Group, a Swiss private equity, limited withdrawals from its flagship fund to 5% in Q2. The move follows a similar pattern in Q1.

Comment: liquidity is in high demand.

The World Cup is coming soon, are you going to watch the games?

Wrap up

That’s all for today! It’s a travel week for me as I’m going to Manifest so no deep dive this week. But I will be back on Friday with the portfolio update and during the week with State of the PROPHET NOTES.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! It feels like the Trump admin is all in on teasing us as there is no progress whatsoever. The imminent Iran deals that never come, alien disclosure that fell short of a promise; pick your poison, Trump will tease you regardless of your issue.

Outside of US politics, the week was full of developments in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as some updates from Asia and Europe. Check it out and get ahead!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The US is mired by its usual problems of illegal immigration and questionable foreign policy.

Ken Paxton defeated John Cornyn in a Republican primary to contest Cornyn’s seat in the senate in the midterms. A late endorsement from Trump helped Paxton secure a win.

Comment: Paxton is considered a controversial figure. We’ll see how much of a problem that proves to be in the coming months. Traders have him as a slight favorite, with 60% chance for victory.

Pete Hegseth attended the Shangri-La Dialogue where he said that America’s relations with China were better than they’ve been in many years. He also said that China’s historic military build-up meant that the US allies ought to spend more on defense. Additionally, America, Australia and Britain agreed to develop aquatic drones to protect subsea cables at the conference.

Comment: performative yapping if you ask me. Nothing groundbreaking was presented or said at the conference.

A federal judge temporarily blocked the Trump admin from implementing a $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund to pay alleged victims of government lawfare. A group of challengers argued that it would unfairly benefit people claiming to have been harmed by Democratic, but not Republican, administrations.

Comment: the fund is looking at a mountain of opposition. Traders see less than 20% chance it will pay a Jan 6 rioter anytime soon.

The Trump administration teased non-human intelligence confirmation by publishing an aliens.gov website, only to have it deal with illegal immigration.

Comment: the Trump admin is looking to put as much attention as possible on the issues it is sure to win on. However, with so many problems around the world, and the resulting inflation, I doubt this is the way to salvage the midterms.

The Americas

The World Cup is coming.

Mexico agreed to act as the base for Iran’s soccer team during the World Cup. The tournament is jointly hosted by America, Canada and Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum said that America did not want the Iranian team to stay overnight in the US.

Comment: Iran is hardly a favorite to win the World Cup, but its presence is surely interesting amid the Iran war.

Bolivia’s centrist president, Rodrigo Paz, said he would cut his salary in half to appease protesters calling for his resignation. Other members of his government are also going to see their salaries cut. His government has faced weeks of demonstrations calling for an end to austerity measures. Paz insists they are necessary to fix public finances.

Comment: traders don’t really expect Paz to go out soon.

Asia

Some scattered news from Asia.

At least 55 people were killed and dozens were injured by an explosion in a village in a region of Myanmar controlled by Ta’ang National Liberation Army. It’s one of the most powerful armed groups opposing the country’s ruling military junta. TNLA blamed explosives used in mining.

Comment: the war in Myanmar continues despite no one looking. It is simply not a priority to handle for anyone. For now, all the interest groups are fine with continued hostilities.

On the Shangri-La Dialogue, India said it had finalized a sale to Vietnam of its supersonic, long-range BrahMos missiles.

Comment: Vietnam is a rising star in SEA.

Japan’s population fell by 3 million between 2020 and 2025, the sharpest decline on record. The country has returned to its population of the late 1980s.

Comment: Japan is clearly headed in a difficult direction.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran war peace deal roller-coaster continues in the Middle East.

During the last weeks, we oscillated between small US and Iranian strikes and an imminent peace deal.

Both sides criticized each other while claiming their strikes are for defensive purposes only.

Iran began restoring internet access after an 88-day digital blackout.

Throughout the week, the Trump admin was teasing an imminent deal, including JD Vance saying that the deal was very close.

Donald Trump ultimately went into the Situation Room to make his final decision, only to reject the deal.

Masoud Pezeshkian is rumored to have resigned from presidency, citing outsized IRGC influence in the country. However, Iran is denying the rumors.

Comment: as usual, more of my insights on the Iran war are available in the recent portfolio update and the video I made over the weekend:

The IDF said it has intensified attacks on Lebanon, after Netanyahu ordered an escalation of its offensive against Hezbollah.

The IDF ordered the evacuation of much of southern Lebanon as it carried out strikes on the city of Tyre. Hezbollah said it had engaged with Israeli troops “at point-blank range” near the town of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah.

The escalation continues to this day.

Comment: as the Middle Eastern peace efforts fail, it is expected that Israel will continue its operations in Lebanon for the foreseeable future.

Netanyahu said he directed Israel’s armed forces to seize at least 70% of Gaza. Additionally, Hamas confirmed the death of Mohammed Odeh, its new military leader, in an Israeli air strike on Gaza.

Comment: traders see a decent chance of a proper offensive starting. If the Iran war negotiations take too long, I also expect Gaza to fire up again.

Ghana’s parliament passed a bill making it illegal to say you are LGBT+ or to have gay sex. A similar bill was also passed in 2024, but the then president refused to sign it. The current president, John Mahama, has said that he will make this one law.

Comment: Ghana seems to be focusing on everything, but the important things… But maybe Trump will appreciate the move.

Europe

The situation in Ukraine seems to be heating up.

Russia warned foreigners to leave Kyiv ahead of systemic strikes targeting defense facilities. It is a response to a deadly Ukrainian attack on a student dorm in the Luhansk region. Vladimir Putin also signed a law to allow his country’s army to intervene abroad to help Russian citizens.

Separately, Zelensky appealed to Trump and America’s Congress for more Patriot PAC-3 missiles and other air defense system to counter missile attacks by Russia.

Last week, Russian drone crossed into Romania and struck a block of flats in Galati, a city near the border with Ukraine, according to the Romanian defense ministry. Two people were injured.

Comment: the Ukraine war is heating up, while many experts forecast a big summer offensive from Russia. I’ll keep monitoring the situation.

Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia in protest at its ally’s attempts to establish closer ties with the EU.

Comment: one consequence of the war of attrition in Ukraine is Russia losing its power projection abilities across Central Asia.

The EU has agreed to unlock €16 billion ($19 billion) in frozen funds to Hungary after a meeting with Peter Magyar, the country’s new prime minister. The bloc had withheld financing due to the rule-of-law violations of Viktor Orban’s government.

Comment: same situation happened in Poland in 2023. Once an EU-favored government was formed, all funds were unlocked, despite no changes in the rule-of-law or any other legislative change. Expect Magyar to run his government more in line with EU mandate, despite his right-wing agenda.

Business, Finance & Economics

A wide array of business news.

America’s PCE index rose by 3.8% y/y in April, as the Iran war pushed up food and energy costs. It’s the biggest increase since May 2023. Additionally, revised GDP figures showed that America’s economy grew by an annualized 1.6% in Q1.

Comment: and they say that the Strait of Hormuz is not important…

Huawei said it was 5 years away from producing 1.4 nanometer chips that would compete with TSMC.

Comment: amid sanctions and tariffs, China is trying to produce high-tech in-house. Recently China also replicated an ASML machine, crucial to chip production, shocking the world.

Anthropic secured $65 billion in funding at a valuation of $965 billion. It was valued at just $380 billion in February.

Comment: AI bubble continues to grow.

A New Glenn rocket made by Blue Origin exploded on its launchpad in Florida. The firm was testing the vessel’s engine; no one was harmed.

Comment: stuff like that happens with rockets.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’ll publish my deep dive on the post-war Middle East this week. It’s going to be a spicy one so make sure to subscribe!

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! The weekend was busy. We had rumors of an imminent deal in Iran, only to see the change in rhetoric on Sunday. Now we are waiting for new updates. TradFi is bullish deal, but prediction markets tell a different story.

There were also developments in other parts of the world. From midterms to Xi-Putin meeting, the world is moving at a staggering pace. Get up to speed with it.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

It’s been quite a week in the US.

Thomas Massie lost his primary in Kentucky to a Trump-backed opponent. While in Texas, Trump-backed Paxton all but won his primary.

Comment: Trump is pushing candidates that would not directly oppose him. However, he should rather focus on not losing Congress.

Tulsi Gabbard resigned as America’s director of national intelligence, citing her husband’s diagnosis with a rare form of cancer. Rumors are she’s been increasingly sidelined.

Comment: for quite some time now Gabbard’s been rumored to leave the admin. She didn’t have any serious project or a role in the recent US actions on foreign soil. Polymarket consensus is that Aaron Lukas, the current principal deputy director of national intelligence is going to replace her.

The Trump admin announced a $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund to compensate people who claim they were wrongly targeted by the Justice Department. It was created as part of the settlement of a lawsuit the president brought against the IRS.

Comment: Trump’s allies are going to get paid, but there’s a coin-flip chance some of the payouts will be blocked.

America’s acting AG, Todd Blanche, said that the IRS is forever barred from continuing any existing audits against the Trump family or its businesses. This comes as part of the settlement that created the Anti-Weaponization Fund.

Comment: one of Trump’s main motivations for being POTUS is enriching his family. By all accounts, he’s doing great in that regard.

Trump delayed signing an executive order that would have given the admin more oversight of new AI models. The AI labs would be required to share the new models before their release.

Comment: supposedly it was David Sacks who saved the day for his tech bro friends. Ultimately the most important thing for the US government is to have unobstructed access to state of the art models and it is surely getting it.

American secret service agents returned fire on a gunman near the White House, killing the individual. The suspect is a 21-year-old who is known to the service. One bystander was injured in the process.

Comment: I think the assassins fail to realize that in case they succeed, it’s JD Vance taking the throne.

The Americas

It’s all Cuba.

America’s Justice Department indicted Raul Castro on several charges, including murder. He is accused of ordering two aircraft flown by a Miami-based exile group to be shot down in 1996, killing 4 people.

Comment: with no progress in diplomacy, strikes are increasingly looking like the most likely option.

Asia

Xi Jinping is busy meeting world leaders.

Xi said China’s relationship with Russia had reached the highest level of comprehensive strategic partnership after signing a series of trade and technology agreements with Putin in Beijing. The two leaders criticized America’s military actions, but failed to reach an agreement on a long touted gas pipeline between the 2 countries.

Comment: Russia and China continue to deepen their relationship. A bearish sign for US-Russia cooperation if you ask me, but lack of progress on the pipeline issue leaves a crack in the door.

Rubio held talks in Delhi with Modi and extended an invitation for India’s PM to visit the White House. Rubio indicated ahead of the meeting that America would sell India as much energy as they’ll buy.

Comment: the US is trying really hard to get India into its sphere of influence.

A train carrying Pakistani security personnel was bombed in Balochistan, killing at least 24 people and wounding around 70. The Baloch Liberation Army claimed responsibility for the attack.

Comment: there can be several explanations. Balochs might want to use the current crisis to dash for independence. They could have been hired. But by which side? They could be getting stronger by facilitating cross-border illegal oil trade since part of Balochistan lies in Iran. Surely an interesting development.

Middle East & Africa

We have yet another peace deal narrative.

The US and Iran were exchanging MOU proposals throughout the week. There was some escalatory rhetoric along the process, but we went into the weekend with rumors of an imminent deal (visible on the Polymarket chart).

Oil fell on the news. However, it soon became clear that there are still large gaps to bridge. As of today, we are awaiting new rumors. Despite differences, both sides claim to be deeply engaged in the process.

Some of the rumors were confirmed by Marco Rubio, giving a spark of confidence to the commentators.

Iran is generally highlighting wide gaps, while the US is claiming to be close to a deal.

Comment: Marco Rubio confirming some rumors gives me only a minor confidence boost. More of my thoughts in my recent deep dive:

The Knesset voted 110-0 to dissolve itself, beginning a countdown to election in September or October.

Comment: Netanyahu is currently tied with Naftali Bennett as favorites to be the next PM. Naftali Bennett is the former PM and the leader of the new opposition alliance, Together, aiming to win the election.

The WHO raised the threat from the Democratic Republic of Congo’s ebola outbreak from high to very high. The suspected death toll in central Africa has reached 177; a further 750 cases are suspected. Scientists are working on a vaccine for the disease, but it is not expected to be ready for several months.

Comment: it won’t be a pandemic, but it’s yet another crisis in Africa…

Europe

This week Ukraine and Russia exchanged multiple missiles, including on Kiev and Moscow. Outside of that:

The European Union provisionally agreed to remove import duties on some American goods to avoid an escalation of the trade negotiation with Trump. It was done as part of a trade deal agreed in July.

Comment: I don’t think anyone doubted that.

A Turkish court annulled the results of the Republican People’s Party congress in 2023, thus removing Ozgur Ozel as head of the main opposition party. The court reinstated the divisive Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who lost a presidential election in 2023 to Mr Erdogan, as CHP’s interim leader.

Comment: seems like Erdogan is tightening his grip on power.

Business, Finance & Economics

It’s an IPO frenzy.

Google said it will introduce Spark, a new AI agent to its search engine. The bot will draw on user data from products such as Gmail and Maps to carry out tasks. The tech giant also unveiled smart glasses, a decade after it shelved Google Glass. The specs, intended to rival Meta’s Ray-Bans, respond to voice commands and can take photos and videos.

Comment: AI is being more and more integrated into our daily lives.

SpaceX filed for an IPO and is expected to debut on NASDAQ in June. Traders are fairly certain it will be the biggest IPO to date:

Comment: xAI is part of SpaceX; Elon is looking to fund his AI lab to rival OpenAI.

Hearing the news, OpenAI is reportedly also preparing to file for an IPO in the coming weeks. The company is currently valued at $831.9 billion.

Comment: Sam Altman also needs massive amounts of capital to win the AI race.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’m working on a next deep dive, but I’ll let you know more about it once I’m closer to publishing it.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.