Welcome to another week! I’m introducing a new format for the Global Outlook. From now on prediction markets will be at the center of this series. Each week I will comment on a selection of top prediction markets based on volume, volatility and surprising resolutions across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science.

This way I’ll be able to focus on interpreting the change in market forecast, rather than judging the news through a market lens.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Midterms

Darline Graham Nordone advanced to the run-off in the SC Republican Senate Special Primary. She got 33% of the vote, 17 percentage points short of an outright majority needed to get the nomination in the first round. She will now face Ralph Norman, who finished the first round with 24%.

Despite the run-off, traders now feel more confident than ever that the late Lindsey Graham’s sister will take the nomination. Initially, they were worried that the Trump endorsement wouldn’t be enough against a rather wide field. Now, the 9-point lead proves all the worries were unnecessary—my FV assessment is even slightly above the market.

In the wider midterms forecast, we have two conflicting information sources. Adjacent’s SENR index, which currently has the 2026 and 2028 Senate races in its basket, shows a slight Republican advantage:

In the meantime, Nate Silver’s generic-ballot model shows a massive Democratic advantage:

This is an interesting divergence—last week I mentioned how FLIPR’s release impacted prediction markets. The very markets that feed into the SENR index. I believe that it shows that Nate Silver, after a rather unimpressive performance in the previous elections, is no longer fully trusted—the market put a discount on his forecast.

2028 Presidential Election

We still have almost three months until the midterms, but the media already focus on the 2028 presidential election. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez became the favorite to win the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nomination. Her rise—from a 14% chance a month ago to a 21% chance today—is fueled by rumors that she ended her relationship with her longtime fiancé. She also reportedly froze her eggs.

What does a personal relationship have to do with a presidential run? Traders believe that she is preparing for a run—freezing her eggs and splitting from a longtime partner is a strategic move if you think you will be too busy for a serious relationship (or kids) in the next few years. Additionally, the progressive wing of the Democratic Party continues to dominate the primaries.

Interestingly, Kalshi still shows Gavin Newsom as the favorite.

While AOC surged on the Democratic Nominee Market, JD Vance is widening his lead with a 47% chance to get the nomination:

Recently, Trump mentioned that in the end, it has to be JD.

The Fed

Moving to the economy, Polymarket now sees only a 25% chance of a hike in September. Additionally, a hike is no longer likely this year—traders give only a 47% chance of one by the end of the year, down from 78% barely a month ago:

All fueled by this week’s economic data dump—a relatively soft CPI print, high initial jobless claims and a disastrous retail sales report. Traders see two things playing out: first, the recent data dump suggests that the consumer is getting squeezed enough with rates at their current level; second, the midterms are coming and Republicans would do anything to prevent a hike just before the election.

The Fed cut market completes the picture: despite weak labor and consumer data, traders see only a 15% chance of a cut this year:

The Americas

Brazil Presidential Election

In the Americas, the Brazil Presidential Election is the most important upcoming event. The market continues to attract massive volume, totaling almost $4 million in the last week alone. Despite its popularity, the market is relatively flat—Lula is up 2 percentage points on the week while Flavio Bolsonaro went up by 3 percentage points. Other candidates took a hit as voters converge on the top two choices.

Flavio has been on a gradual rise for over a month now. Recently, he’s been tightening the gap and fresh polls put him within the margin of error of Lula. With the intensive part of the campaign starting soon we can expect more volatility on the market.

The first round will take place on the 4th of October and the second round will be held on the 25th of October.

Asia

Indonesia

Moving to the Eastern Hemisphere, an M7.7 earthquake hit Indonesia, followed by another M6.9 quake only a day later. At least 53 people are dead, with many more missing.

It is not a shocking development, however, as Indonesia is prone to frequent earthquakes, along with Japan, Chile and the Philippines—all four were equally likely to get the first M6.0+ quake.

Japan

In finance, traders moved their BoJ rate decision forecast and now see a 72% chance of a hike. The adjustment is caused by a weak yen performance this year combined with rising inflation. However, a slowdown in GDP growth prevented the forecast from going above an 80% chance of a hike.

The next meeting is scheduled for September 17-18.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran War

Now, the most important event—the Iran war. Last week passed with no big news hitting the headlines. We saw Axios report that America has a backchannel with the IRGC as well as signs of possible in-person talks in the UAE:

However, with no tangible progress, the chances of a final nuclear deal are going down—traders put a final deal at just 3% by the end of September and at 18% by the end of the year.

That being said, a return to wider hostilities is unlikely:

The Israel-Iran ceasefire-break market sits at 24% for the end-of-September expiry. It doesn’t mean that ships won’t continue to be struck, though.

Especially since the hopes for the Iran–Oman Hormuz Management Agreement are faltering:

Traders still see a 60% chance of one by the end of September, but even then they have several reservations. First of all, they see only a 40% chance of the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade in the same timeframe:

As if that weren’t enough, they give an 11% chance—the No side is knocking on bond territory—that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of September:

What does it mean? Well, traders learn—the last few deals meant to open up the strait fell short of expectations, with neither delivering a sustained surge in crossings. Ultimately, signing papers is easy; delivering results is not.

The US crude oil reserves market is aligned with the SOH-related markets. Traders see a 63% chance the SPR will fall below 285 million barrels of oil by the end of the month:

The last reported level is slightly above 298.5 million barrels of oil—but with no progress around the strait the oil must come from somewhere…

To top it all off, Iran and America are not expected to meet anytime soon:

Traders now give only a 31% chance of a meeting between the two countries by the end of September. A lack of an in-person meeting didn’t stop the MoU from being finalized, though. Chances are we will see progress regardless.

This week the 60-day MoU deadline is ending. While traders see little chance of the deadline being extended, this week should bring some news on the back of the expiring truce:

The Houthis

On the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, the Houthis maintain pressure on Saudi Arabia. Traffic is down, but the blockade is well short of a total shutdown. Traders give only a 20% chance of an effective shutdown (less than 10 crossings a day for 7 days) by the end of the year.

I think traders are overestimating here—my fair value for the end-of-year market is 10%.

Ethiopia

In Africa, an Ethiopian election that took place months ago drew the most volume of any election market last week. I suspect a lot of wash trading—the market lacks liquidity rewards and the situation is stable. Abiy Ahmed’s party won, and the only risk is that he changes the constitution and introduces a presidential system instead of taking the PM seat (yes, really).

I doubt this outlier scenario is the reason for such high volume considering that the price is stable.

Europe

The Ukraine War

The Ukraine war is escalating at a breakneck pace. Ukraine vastly improved its drone and missile production capabilities and launched a strike campaign. At first, it focused on oil infrastructure. Then, it expanded and started targeting infrastructure near major cities like Moscow. Recently, Ukraine has targeted several Wildberries warehouses (Russia’s Amazon), hitting civilian infrastructure for the first time.

Russia is not going to be passive. We are seeing rumors of mobilization along with increased drone and missile incidents on the NATO eastern flank:

In the last three weeks alone we had at least 5 incursions, including a cruise missile that struck eastern Poland:

However, Russia has a parliamentary election on September 20:

We all know what to expect, but I do think that Putin might be waiting to lock in the new government before launching a new phase of the “special military operation”. Recent escalations imply that this winter could be a deciding moment in this war.

Other

AI

Anthropic’s IPO leaks surprised traders forecasting the AI lab’s valuation. The market is now pricing in a 47% chance Anthropic will be worth more than $2.5 trillion by the end of the year.

The creator of Claude is looking for a $2 trillion valuation on its October IPO and traders see it grow with the wider market. Then again, it could just as easily go the SpaceX way—down 13% in the two months since its IPO.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! This week’s schedule is TBD outside of the Friday’s Forecast Update.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! The big news comes from the Middle East (of course!), but we have quite a few interesting developments in the US, Venezuela (where elections might be coming) and Ukraine, which is working hard ahead of winter.

Each week I gather all the relevant news from around the world and provide my commentary in my Global Outlooks. This way you can look under the hood and see how a geopolitical trader thinks about the world. Paid subscribers go a level deeper: my full Iran and Ukraine war coverage, election deep dives, and the fair values I’m actually trading on.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

America’s economy lost 23,000 jobs in July; economists had expected a gain of about 83,000. The BLS also revised its May and June figures down by a combined 103,000. Labor-force participation fell to its lowest level since 1976. A weaker jobs market makes it less likely the Fed will raise rates in September.

Comment: chances are Kevin Warsh is up against stagflation, where inflation goes up while the job market contracts. Odds of a September hike went down to 36c. However, Warsh seems to prioritize inflation in his remarks, after years of it running well above the 2% target. I believe traders reacted too sharply to the labor market data. Either way, future price action depends on the CPI and PCE prints, which could break in either direction.

A federal appeals court ordered Trump to stop building his $400 million ballroom on the site of the White House’s East Wing. The DC Circuit ruled 2-1 that the 90,000-square-foot addition requires the approval of Congress, noting that each president is “a temporary tenant, not the owner” of the building. Trump called the ruling “politically motivated” and said he would ask the Supreme Court to overturn it.

Comment: Trump continues to say that the ballroom is a matter of national security—several secure facilities are part of the construction. If that’s the case, I expect the ballroom case to go in favor of the admin.

Abdul El-Sayed narrowly beat Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, taking 49% to her 47%. El-Sayed, who ran on the party’s left, was outspent by more than eight to one in the most expensive Democratic Senate primary on record. The left has recently won primaries in New York City and Colorado. He faces Mike Rogers, a Republican, in November.

Comment: traders perceive the choice of a polarizing candidate as a disadvantage in this crucial election. Democrat chances dropped from 74% before the primary to 60%. We are in coinflip territory in one of the battleground states!

Trump is trying once more to fire Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, a month after SCOTUS suspended his first attempt. The White House told Cook this week that the president was “considering” removing her over allegations of mortgage fraud, and gave her until August 26 to respond. Cook denies wrongdoing and says the case is a pretext for pressure on interest rates.

Comment: Trump tries his best to pressure the Fed, but it’s a lost cause. The market sees no chance of Cook’s removal and rightly so—SCOTUS maintained the protection of Fed governors in its recent ruling.

Trump signed two executive orders targeting birthright citizenship, weeks after the Supreme Court struck down his previous attempt. The first excludes the children of foreign officials, of members of designated terrorist organizations and of parents found to have committed citizenship fraud. The second orders the State and Homeland Security departments to deny visas to suspected “birth tourists”. Both will probably be challenged in court.

Comment: I don’t see Trump having any serious chance with 14th Amendment cases.

The Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as attorney-general by 50 votes to 49. Republican holdouts came round only after Trump’s former personal lawyer formally scrapped the $1.78 billion fund designed to compensate his allies for government “lawfare”. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski voted against him anyway.

The Senate also passed a bill funding federal agencies until December 11, by 90 votes to 6, sparing America a shutdown five weeks before the midterms. The last one, in October 2025, lasted 43 days, the longest in the country’s history. The bill now goes to the House.

Comment: Congress clearly didn’t want to risk any delays before the final campaign stretch in October.

Palantir raised its annual revenue forecast to around $8.15 billion, up from $7.65 billion, after quarterly revenue grew by 93% year on year to $1.94 billion. Government and commercial sales both accelerated in America. Profits rose by 55%, to $1.06 billion.

Comment: is it even shocking that military contractors beat revenue expectations in a time of war?

The Americas

British Columbia declared a state of emergency as more than 100 wildfires burned across the Canadian province. The Bald Range fire has consumed around 9,500 hectares and forced all 12,000 residents of Summerland to leave. Roughly 21,700 people have been evacuated, with another 9,700 on alert.

Comment: enjoy the El Niño…

Two attacks marked the first days in office of Abelardo de la Espriella, Colombia’s new right-wing president. A car bomb at a toll plaza in Cauca injured two security guards, and a drone strike on a police station in Cesar killed an officer. The armed forces blamed rebels who had separated from the FARC. De la Espriella, sworn in at Cali on Friday, campaigned on ending peace talks with armed groups.

Comment: with the election of the right-wing president, the Trump admin is quick to tighten its partnership with Colombia. Traders see it as a sign that the US military might help Colombia fight the rogue militias.

Flávio Bolsonaro chose Alfredo Gaspar, a conservative congressman, as his running-mate in Brazil’s presidential election. He had promised to pick a woman, but several higher-profile candidates could not get their parties to back them. Lula is still on course to be re-elected on October 4, though recent polling shows Bolsonaro closing the gap.

Comment: Bolsonaro’s chances are rising slowly, but he’s still far behind Lula, with only a 27% chance of victory. I have no horse in this race, but I do think that Bolsonaro won’t give up easily. And he does have a couple of strong allies in Trump and Milei.

Talks backed by America got under way in Caracas on holding democratic elections. The government’s lead negotiator is Jorge Rodríguez, the head of the National Assembly and brother of Delcy Rodríguez, who became president when America removed Nicolás Maduro in January. The opposition is represented by Dinorah Figuera, who has returned from exile. María Corina Machado, still in exile, says success will be measured by whether free elections are actually held.

Comment: it’s big news, but it’s also a process—traders see little chance of an election this year. And once it does happen, I expect it to be far from free and fair…

Asia

Alibaba released Qwen3.8-Max, its biggest AI model yet. It has 2.4trn parameters but activates only 95bn at a time, and ranks fifth on the Text Arena leaderboard, trailing only Anthropic’s models. Alibaba is charging about 40% of what Claude Opus 5 costs for input tokens. Moonshot, a Chinese rival, released Kimi K3 last month.

Comment: Chinese models continue to improve at a breakneck pace. While traders see little chance of a ban, we are definitely heading towards “protectionist” territory.

India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party lost a by-election in Bihar in a seat it had held for 30 years. Prashant Kishor, of the upstart Jan Suraaj (Good Governance) party, won Bankipur by more than 19,000 votes. Narendra Modi is still struggling to contain the “cockroach” student movement, whose protests forced the education minister to resign last month.

Comment: no major comment—the next general election in India is only in 2029.

Taiwan began Han Kuang, its largest annual military exercise, which runs until August 14. The live-fire drills test the army’s ability to sustain round-the-clock operations and to counter China’s “gray-zone” tactics, and give Taiwan’s new M1A2T tanks their first outing. Civilians face air-raid drills and a deliberate slowdown of mobile internet speeds.

Comment: tensions are high, but both traders and I see little chance of any China x Taiwan confrontation anytime soon. Invasions are tough, especially amphibious ones.

Middle East & Africa

Trump called Iran “unbelievably duplicitous” for denying that it is negotiating with America. He insisted talks had resumed on Monday and described them as Iran’s “last chance” for a deal. Iran said it is discussing the management of the Strait of Hormuz with Oman only. American markets rallied at the news.

Oil prices then fell below $80 a barrel after Qatar said a draft agreement had been “circulated” and that negotiations were in “very progressive stages”. Scott Bessent suggested the waterway could reopen by Wednesday.

Iran and Oman agreed a proposed new shipping route through the strait, with inbound ships using the Iranian channel and outbound traffic the Omani side, opening it for 60 days with no transit fees. Iran’s foreign ministry said a joint statement would be finalized “provided certain third parties do not obstruct the process”. Iran’s parliament reviewed a separate draft that would bar vessels from America, Israel and other “hostile” countries.

Tehran then issued six demands that America must meet before the strait reopens: lifting the naval blockade, withdrawing American forces from the region, ending sanctions, paying war reparations, releasing frozen assets and halting operations against Iran’s allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Iraq. Hopes of an early deal faded.

The UAE said an Iranian missile hit a tanker owned by ADNOC, its state oil company, in the strait on Saturday. Abu Dhabi called the strike an act of piracy by the Revolutionary Guard Corps and said more than a dozen of its ships have been attacked since February. Brent still ended the week at $83.55, down by more than 7%.

Comment: this one is for my paid subscribers. For my most recent update on the Iran war, look at my Forecast Update from Saturday:

The Houthis killed at least 30 Yemeni government troops in Marib, Hadhramaut and near the Bab al-Mandab strait, and shelling near Mokha killed seven civilians. The Iran-backed militia said it was pre-empting a Saudi-backed buildup meant to break its grip on the waterway.

Days later the militia set fire to Saudi Aramco’s refinery at Jazan with a drone. Saudi Arabia said the blaze was put out and no one was hurt. The 400,000-barrel-a-day plant had been shut since late July, when an earlier attack damaged it.

Comment: the Houthis are simply negotiating. Strikes are all they can do, as I explained in detail in a video yesterday:

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed a trilateral defense pact in Mecca, agreeing that an attack on one would be treated as an attack on all. The deal follows nearly a year of negotiation. Pakistan’s foreign ministry said the deal would “strengthen collective deterrence”, was “purely defensive” and remained open to other countries in the region.

Comment: Egypt is reportedly being courted to join the agreement as well. The Saudis are consolidating all the Sunni states under a joint defense umbrella. In my opinion, they are getting ready for the post-war order, rather than escalation.

Israel rejected America’s 15-point peace plan for Gaza. Netanyahu told his cabinet that the army, which holds more than half the strip, would not withdraw until Hamas is “genuinely disarmed, not fictitiously disarmed”. The plan, announced on July 30, had envisaged withdrawal and disarmament running in parallel. Hamas says it still backs the roadmap.

Comment: since all the wars in the region are interconnected, I can’t really analyze this one on its own. Israel is also negotiating, but at the same time Netanyahu needs to play domestic politics ahead of the election.

Envoys from Israel and Lebanon met in Rome for a seventh round of talks. They discussed the “model areas” from which Israel would withdraw in stages, and how Hezbollah’s disarmament would be verified. Israel kept striking Lebanon while the talks ran, and Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s leader, said the negotiations would bring Lebanon “nothing but shame”.

Comment: the Israeli population is keen on expanding the Lebanon operation, rather than exiting. We should expect the fighting to continue in the short term, but a broader deal could shorten the timeline.

Europe

Turkey is set to transfer American-made weapons to Ukraine. The State Department notified Congress of a $284 million package covering 12 M270 rocket launchers, 70 ATACMS missiles, more than 2,500 cluster rockets and about 47,000 203mm shells from Turkish stocks. Ankara is retiring the older systems. Deliveries could begin in late August if Congress does not object.

An explosive-laden drone was found at Leipzig airport in Germany, beside a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane loaded with ammunition. It is the first such incursion to carry explosives; previous incidents have been linked to Russia, and German authorities are treating this one as a state-security case. The European Commission separately transferred a fifth tranche of profits from frozen Russian assets, worth €1.4bn ($1.6bn), to Ukraine.

Russian strikes killed 17 people in Kyiv and the surrounding region on Wednesday, after attacks on August 1 and 4 killed nine and 14. Ukraine intercepted none of the incoming ballistic missiles. Zelensky has again appealed to Washington for Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, which are in short supply partly because of the Iran war.

Comment: escalation, not peace, is the base case. This winter we might finally see a breakthrough in this war. For now, all parties are preparing—logistics strikes, AD deals, mobilization chatter in Russia; everything points to escalation.

Zelensky made his first official visit to Serbia, meeting Aleksandar Vučić in Belgrade to discuss EU membership, trade and energy. Serbia has drifted from the Kremlin since 2022, cutting trade and swapping Soviet-era equipment for Western gear, but Vučić repeated that it will not sign up to sanctions against Russia, on which it depends for gas.

Comment: an interesting meeting. Is Serbia ready to choose a side in this war? I’ll try to figure this out.

EU interior ministers held emergency talks on border security after tens of thousands of migrants crossed from Morocco into Ceuta, the Spanish exclave. Ursula von der Leyen called for “united action” and for physical barriers where needed; 22 of the 27 member states had asked for a coordinated response. Spain says about 69,500 of the migrants have since returned to Morocco.

Spain then imposed retaliatory border checks on travelers from Italy, which had suspended Schengen rules for arrivals from Spain and refused to lift them. The two countries share no land border and normally allow visa-free travel. Spain’s checks run until September 7; Italy’s stay until at least August 15.

Comment: ultimately, nothing changed. Business as usual in the EU…

Other

Scientists at Stanford said they had used AI to engineer novel viruses. They trained a generative model, Evo 2, on genetic sequences, then asked it to write new ones capable of fighting E. coli. Of nearly 300 phages the team synthesized and tested, 16 proved “exceptional”, and a mixture of them overcame resistance that natural phages could not. The researchers acknowledged the work raises “biosecurity considerations”.

Comment: the models continue to surprise me. It seems that only a few months ago they were mostly good at coding. Now, they feel like capable agents, which can be a bit worrying considering what follows.

Britain’s AI Security Institute said that, during regular safety testing, Anthropic and OpenAI models had engaged in unprecedented levels of “autonomy and deception”. Across 122 evaluations the institute logged 19 unsanctioned actions on the live internet, including an agent that created fake profiles of real people to pressure a maintainer into approving malicious code on GitHub. Both labs noted that normal safeguards had been removed for the tests.

OpenAI said it was pausing work on Astra, a yet-to-be-released model, citing its “critical” cyber capabilities. A model reaches the firm’s “critical” threshold when it can identify and develop severe bugs without human intervention, or devise novel strategies for high-level cyber-attacks. OpenAI said Astra was not involved in the recent hacking of Hugging Face.

Comment: rogue AI models are not something I like. I’m not sure how much of the news is marketing and how much is true. I do wonder how many instances of rogue behavior are not yet detected.

SpaceX beat analysts’ revenue expectations in its first earnings report since June’s IPO, taking in $7.81 billion in the second quarter, up from $4.1 billion a year earlier. Its net loss narrowed to $541 million, but capital spending reached $18.4 billion, of which $15.8 billion went on AI. Shares fell by about 8% after hours and by nearly 14% the next day, dragging the NASDAQ down 0.8%. An early-investor lockup expires on Thursday.

Comment: everyone loves rockets until they see how much you need to spend to get them up. Jokes aside, SpaceX is arguably a great company, but it needs years, or even decades, to mature.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! This week’s schedule is TBD outside of the State of the PROPHET NOTES recap tomorrow.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! Trump once again stopped a massive escalation hours before his threat expired. Iran and the US are supposed to negotiate again starting today as tensions in the region run high. Outside of that, the Middle East saw developments across Yemen and Gaza.

Other parts of the world didn’t sleep. From the Fed’s decision to Chinese tech advancements and Ceuta, it has been a busy week across the board.

Each week I gather all the relevant news from around the world and provide my commentary in my Global Outlooks. This way you can look under the hood and see how a geopolitical trader thinks about the world. Paid subscribers go a level deeper: my full Iran and Ukraine war coverage, election deep dives, and the fair values I'm actually trading on.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

America banned imports of humanoid robots, citing “unacceptable risks” to national security. The Federal Communications Commission said “advanced robotic devices”, which are mostly made in China, could “surveil Americans”. The regulator also blocked foreign-made power inverters, which are used in data centers and solar panels. China accused America of protectionism.

Comment: America can feel China breathing down its neck, both in robotics and AI. Trump is a protectionist at heart and naturally his first instinct is to block access to Chinese tech. Protecting frontier industries is not inherently bad, and surveillance makes a convenient cover story for the real reason: Chinese frontier tech is almost on par with America's.

America’s economy grew more slowly than expected in Q2, expanding by an annualized 1.5%. Consumer spending grew by 3.2% thanks to slowing energy inflation and higher-than-usual tax refunds, and AI-driven investment continued to boom. Growth was offset by a decline in net exports and companies drawing down their inventories.

Comment: the positives continue to cover up the negatives and the K-shaped paths continue to diverge. The second half of the year is the one to watch, however. The effects of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, combined with extreme weather caused by El Niño, should show themselves in the price of energy, downstream manufacturing and food. I focus more on El Niño in the Europe section.

The Federal Reserve left the interest rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. Three of the 12 members of the FOMC voted for a 25bps increase. Kevin Warsh, the new chairman, urged patience in bringing inflation down and said the Fed would “not hesitate to act” when necessary. American stocks fell and 2Y Treasury yields declined.

Warsh is also considering reducing the number of rate-setting meetings held each year. The policy committee currently meets eight times; Warsh reportedly believes fewer meetings would draw less attention to the Fed.

Comment: Kevin Warsh clearly wants the markets to set their own rate before he acts. By refusing to provide forward guidance he forces the market to react to the incoming economic data. This way, the Fed gets another, valuable data point—unobstructed market sentiment. I expect a few more interesting meetings as Warsh’s approach becomes clearer.

Trump said Todd Blanche will remain acting attorney-general even if two Republican senators continue to block his confirmation. Trump also vowed to revive the $1.8bn “anti-weaponization” fund, designed to pay his MAGA allies, which he had previously abandoned. The senators have refused to approve Blanche without assurances that the Justice Department will not create the fund.

Comment: another Trump grift. It’s rather inconsequential for global affairs and traders expect Todd Blanche to be confirmed before the midterms.

Anthony Fauci, the chief medical adviser to the White House during the COVID-19 pandemic, repeatedly invoked his Fifth-Amendment right not to answer questions during a Senate hearing on the origins of the virus. Rand Paul, the Republican senator chairing the committee, said lawmakers would vote on holding Fauci in contempt. Fauci, who retired in 2022, accused Paul of an “unhinged obsession” with him.

Comment: MAGA wants justice on COVID and MAGA will get it. Traders see a fair chance Fauci is charged by the end of the year. I’m inclined to agree.

The Americas

Keiko Fujimori was inaugurated as Peru’s president after winning June’s runoff by fewer than 50,000 votes. The daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori becomes the country’s ninth president in a decade.

Comment: I wonder if she has her father’s inclinations to stay in power…

Brazil recalled its ambassador to Argentina after Javier Milei attacked Lula and a Supreme Court justice at Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign kick-off rally, calling Brazil’s president a “thief” and a “former convict”. Brazil’s foreign minister summoned Argentina’s ambassador to express “revulsion”.

Comment: Brazil is one of the few LatAm countries where the left is ahead of the right. Milei's move serves two purposes: helping Trump pull LatAm to the right and toward the US, and securing a politically aligned neighbor. However, I’m not sure Milei’s popularity can translate into more votes for Bolsonaro.

Asia

Shares of ASML, which makes the tools used to produce advanced semiconductors, fell by more than 8% after The Information reported that a Chinese state-backed company has started mass-producing deep ultraviolet lithography machines. DUV machines are a generation behind the cutting edge of chipmaking, but they would represent a breakthrough for Chinese manufacturing.

Comment: as I’ve written before, China is cutting the distance to America in frontier tech.

The Bank of Japan held rates steady at 1.0%, but hinted at future hikes. Japan’s weak currency is squeezing households by pushing up import prices. On Thursday the yen briefly strengthened from ¥163 against the dollar to ¥158 after authorities intervened, though it slid again on Friday.

Comment: America is directly intervening in the yen market to keep its price stable. Japan is getting squeezed and traders see it as a sign that the problems will not go away easily. The recession forecast was repriced massively, now at 42%.

Middle East & Africa

The pause in the Iran war broke early in the week. Trump said America was having “good talks” with Iran, but Iran-backed militias attacked America’s Gulf allies, and CENTCOM said it intercepted “multiple ballistic missiles” in a “surprise” Iranian attack on its forces in the Gulf. America and Saudi Arabia also carried out joint strikes on “Iran-aligned terrorists” in Iraq.

America then struck Iran’s southern provinces. The renewed fighting pushed Brent crude to nearly $91 a barrel, up from a two-week low of roughly $84.

Netanyahu visited the White House on Tuesday. Ahead of the meeting Trump said Israel “wouldn’t survive” without America; afterwards he called it a “very good meeting”, while Netanyahu described it as “one of the best conversations” he has had with Trump.

On Saturday Trump cancelled a new wave of strikes on Iran because the “perimeters of a deal” had been agreed. He claimed the agreement would include the “complete and total” opening of the Strait of Hormuz and “an end to Iran’s nuclear threat”, and said it had Israel’s support. Negotiations resume on Monday.

However, Israel has indicated it will attack if Iran restarts its nuclear or ballistic-missile programs “regardless of external commitments”, while Iran maintains there is not yet any agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, on which the purported deal depends.

Comment: Iran update coverage is available for my paid subscribers.

Saudi Arabia proposed an international maritime-defense alliance amid Houthi attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea. Representatives of 43 countries discussed the plan in Riyadh on Thursday; 14, including Egypt and Qatar, expressed support for “joint maritime operations”, intelligence-sharing and exercises.

Comment: it seems that Saudi Arabia is unwilling to commit to a ground operation in Yemen, opting instead for naval escorts. I doubt this initiative will be successful. Egypt's enthusiasm is the tell: if the initiative fails, Egypt wins anyway—with Bab-el-Mandeb too risky, Saudi tankers bound for Asia have to exit north through Suez and go the long way around Africa. Since late 2023 Egypt has been struggling due to decreased traffic through the Red Sea. However, this is not an equilibrium. Sooner or later, the Houthis will need to be dealt with.

A small note to the market: the effective closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is rather unlikely due to the volume of Chinese-bound vessels.

Trump said his Board of Peace struck a deal for Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza to disarm fully. Hamas confirmed it agreed to the 15-point proposal, but only if Israel withdraws its forces from the territory. For now, Israel refuses to withdraw.

Comment: Hamas did agree, but until Israel approves the plan, nothing can happen. The disarmament is conditional on phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. I expect Israel to agree to the plan eventually; the IDF probably still needs to do more before it's comfortable with the withdrawal.

Europe

Trump met Zelensky at the White House and said the meeting went “very well”; Zelensky said the pair discussed “licensing arrangements” for Ukraine to produce American Patriot missiles. Three days later Trump said America has not agreed to grant the licenses, weeks after offering them. Trump said the technology is “a hard thing to give away”.

Andy Burnham hosted Zelensky in Portsmouth—his first meeting with a foreign leader as Britain’s prime minister—and said his government would “honor every commitment” Britain has made to Ukraine. He announced Britain would share “Stone Cloak”, a technology for countering drone jamming, and promised to help Ukraine achieve a “full and unconditional ceasefire” with Russia.

Russia hit Kyiv with 27 ballistic missiles and 185 drones overnight on Saturday, killing nine people across five districts. Zelensky said only one of the ballistic missiles was intercepted, blaming the dwindling supply of Patriot interceptors.

Comment: Ukraine has a new strategy, which brings the war to Russia—attacking energy infrastructure along with Wildberries, an Amazon equivalent, will make ordinary Russians feel the consequences of the war. By lowering domestic morale, Ukraine wants to bring Russia to the table with concessions, rather than demands. However, traders believe a long-term ceasefire remains unlikely. Russia still has strategic depth and everyone expects it to escalate before sitting down to negotiate.

A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crashed in eastern Poland during an overnight barrage on Ukraine, leaving a 30-foot crater near a village in Lublin province. Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister, said the country “was prepared to shoot down the missile if it had continued its flight”; NATO jets were scrambled and the alliance said it would “defend every inch” of its territory. Russia did not comment.

Comment: as usual, there are no consequences. Europe, despite all its tough talk, is unable to respond properly. This is like slow-boiling a frog—first acts of sabotage, then drones, then actual missiles. Expect more such acts.

Russia’s Federal Security Service charged Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, with “facilitating terrorist activity” and issued an international arrest warrant. The agency accused him of allowing Ukrainians to coordinate “acts of sabotage and terrorism” on the platform. Durov, who is Russian-born but holds French and Emirati citizenship, responded with a photograph of himself raising a middle finger.

Comment: Russia wants its citizens to use a government-approved comms app, MAX by VK, rather than Telegram. This is part of the effort to force the transition as Telegram continues to be extremely popular in Russia.

More than 50,000 migrants crossed into Ceuta, a Spanish enclave in North Africa, from Morocco. Spain deployed troops; at least 57 people died trying to cross, and Spain says almost all of the migrants have since returned. France strengthened its border controls and Italy temporarily suspended some Schengen cooperation with Spain. The EU called an emergency meeting for Tuesday.

Comment: another European story where there are no consequences. Migrants went in unchallenged, posing all kinds of risks to national and European security. Europe has a migrant problem only because it allows it. And it will continue to be a problem as long as there is no change in policy.

Emmanuel Macron said the wildfires in France’s southwest are the country’s “most difficult situation” since WWII, warning of “tough” weeks ahead. The mayor of Bordeaux said he was preparing for “all eventualities” as one blaze burned nine miles from the city. More than 320,000 people have been evacuated across France and Spain.

Comment: super El Niño continues to disrupt weather across the globe. Heatwaves, droughts and storms are hitting regions that produce the majority of the global food supply. This winter won’t be tough only because of scarce energy—food supply will be a major problem. Developed economies will feel it through inflation, developing through scarcity…

Extreme heat forced Hungary to shut down its only nuclear-power station—the first full shutdown in the plant’s 44-year history—after drought brought the Danube river, which supplies its cooling water, to its lowest level in years. The site provides roughly 40% of Hungary’s electricity; the government said it may halt supply to the largest users if the grid comes under pressure.

Comment: this is the energy part of the problem (among others)…

Other

New York sued Kalshi, accusing the prediction market of running an “illegal gambling operation” in the state without a gaming license, seeking penalties the state estimates could total $36 billion. Several states have filed similar suits against Kalshi and other prediction markets. The Trump administration, which favors the industry, is drafting new rules for the platforms. Kalshi dismissed the lawsuit as “political theatre”.

Comment: prediction markets continue to fight the gambling lobby. For now, prediction markets are winning and traders don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Anthropic said it detected three instances of its models breaking out of testing environments and accessing other companies’ systems. The lab found the incidents during a review triggered by OpenAI’s admission last week that two of its models had breached Hugging Face; Reuters reported OpenAI has since identified further cases of its agents going rogue.

Comment: it's probably a marketing stunt. If any of it is true, however, it's a major admission from the two top AI labs that should make us think more about protection against rogue AI agents.

Amazon completed its $50bn investment in OpenAI, taking its stake in the AI firm to around 5% ahead of OpenAI’s planned listing. The funds will be used to help OpenAI train more models.

Comment: traders still don't see OpenAI's valuation hitting a trillion dollars this year, especially after news that the IPO might slip to 2027.

Citadel bought most of the equities held by Situational Awareness, the AI-focused fund run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 24-year-old with no prior trading experience, after margin calls from its prime brokers amid the sell-off in AI stocks. The fund, leveraged roughly four times, had grown to $45 billion at its peak; what remains is a stake in Anthropic and a private investment vehicle.

Comment: what can I say—Leopold has no concept of risk management and is not fit to run outside money… but he is still standing, and since he is supposedly still up YTD, he will probably raise more by the end of the year.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’m working on a USMCA deep dive while I monitor the Clarity Act situation. Otherwise, we are all watching Iran.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! We had a surprise development over the weekend as the US stopped its strikes on Iran. However, the Houthis are still fighting. Outside of the Iran war, we had developments across tariffs, midterms and LatAm elections.

In the Eastern Hemisphere the spotlight is on Ukraine and record wildfires in Western Europe. All while there was an ASEAN summit where Rubio and Lavrov met.

Each week I gather all the relevant news and provide my commentary in my Global Outlooks. This way you can look under the hood and see how a geopolitical trader thinks about the world. Paid subscribers go a level deeper: my full Iran and Ukraine war coverage, election deep dives, and the fair values I'm actually trading on.

Let’s see what changed in the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The Trump administration imposed tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 countries, accusing them of failing to police imports of goods made with forced labor. They begin on Friday, when a separate 10% levy expires. Trump has repeatedly adjusted his tariffs since the Supreme Court struck down their main legal justification in February.

Trump will also impose a new 50% tariff on nearly $20 billion of Canadian goods for “discriminatory treatment of American products”. The levy takes effect in 30 days under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, an obscure provision that has not been used before to set tariffs. Products already subject to tariffs, such as steel, are exempt.

Separately, Trump said generic-drug manufacturers must move production to America or face a 100% tariff from August 2028, rising to 200% from August 2029. Generic drugs account for about 90% of prescriptions filled in America, most of them manufactured in India and Europe.

Comment: as usual with Trump, tariffs are used as leverage and their implementation can always be delayed. I don't think these announcements shock anyone at this point.

Member states of the International Criminal Court voted to fire Karim Khan, its chief prosecutor, over allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denies. He is the first sitting chief prosecutor removed in the court’s history. The decision comes as the court faces pressure from America over its investigations into American and Israeli citizens; Marco Rubio recently launched a campaign to “dismantle” the ICC.

Comment: the US only likes the international organizations it controls. Since the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, America has been openly opposing it. Now it seems it is trying to gain control over the entity. Or at least trying to paralyze it.

Democrats in Maine chose Troy Jackson as their new nominee for the Senate race in November, after Graham Platner dropped out following allegations of sexual assault, which he denies. Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former Maine Senate president, will take on five-term Republican Susan Collins. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a Senate majority.

Comment: Maine is the key state in the battle for the Senate. For now I know little about Troy Jackson, but I do plan to change that soon.

The Americas

A federal judge in New York set a June 2027 trial date for Nicolás Maduro, 200 days after American special forces captured Venezuela’s former leader and flew him to a Brooklyn jail. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, face drug-trafficking and weapons charges, which they deny. At the pretrial hearing his lawyers signaled they will argue that his capture was illegal and that he has immunity as a former head of state; oral arguments are scheduled for November.

Comment: this one will surely be fun to watch. The Trump admin is bound to make it a show and set an example. Prepare for a lot of drama with little substance.

Daniel Ortega said Nicaragua would “never” hold elections again, in effect cancelling polls scheduled for next year; parliament has moved to abolish them. Marco Rubio called on the international community to cut off Nicaragua, saying the regime “cannot expect to maintain business as usual”.

Comment: America continues to be heavily engaged in the Western Hemisphere's political affairs. And Nicaragua is rather low-hanging fruit.

Flávio Bolsonaro formally launched his campaign for Brazil’s presidential election in October, with endorsements from Javier Milei and Binyamin Netanyahu. “Bolsonaro’s blood flows here,” the senator said. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, was sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup.

Comment: Flavio Bolsonaro is battling a leak connecting him to a high-profile fraud investigation involving Daniel Vorcaro, a jailed banker. Despite the global swing to the right, he is not a favorite to win. But I do expect some help is on the way.

Asia

Foreign ministers from ASEAN’s 11 members met in Manila. The bloc discussed whether to readmit Myanmar’s military rulers to its high-level meetings for the first time since the 2021 coup; Thailand supports readmission, Singapore opposes it, and no consensus was reached. Border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia and tensions in the South China Sea were also on the agenda. Marco Rubio and his Chinese and Russian counterparts attended the broader security meetings.

Comment: nothing substantial happened at the summit. Rubio and Lavrov met to discuss the Ukraine war, but I don’t think any breakthrough was reached.

India’s education minister resigned after weeks of protests over leaked exam papers and youth unemployment, led by the Cockroach Janta Party — named after a judge likened unemployed youths to “cockroaches”. Some 180 protesters were injured in earlier clashes with police in Delhi. Protest leaders said they would end their demonstrations.

Comment: a small political crisis in India resolved as quickly as it started.

Perry Warjiyo resigned as governor of Indonesia’s central bank, two years before the end of his term. He had led the bank since 2018. His departure raises further questions about the bank’s independence: Prabowo Subianto has given the legislature more control over the bank and appointed his nephew as a deputy governor.

Comment: this doesn’t spark confidence in the Indonesian Rupiah, which has been falling against the dollar for quite some time.

Middle East & Africa

America bombed Iran over the course of the week. Trump threatened to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities “pretty soon”, and Pete Hegseth, his war secretary, told Congress the war has cost America $37.5 billion so far.

Yemen’s Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia. Tankers carrying Saudi crude reversed course in the Red Sea, and the militia later struck two Saudi tankers and the city of Jizan; Saudi Arabia retaliated against Houthi targets in the port city of Hodeida. Trump said he would hold Iran responsible and threatened “major military punishment”.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, warned that if Iran cannot export oil, “no one will sell oil” in the region, adding that the Strait of Hormuz would not return to pre-war conditions.

Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, after Trump told Axios he was considering a “massive attack” on Iran, “bigger than ever before”.

America then paused its attacks for two consecutive nights and Iran said it would stop “retaliatory operations”. Mike Waltz, America’s ambassador to the UN, said Trump was giving peace talks “some space”; senior military officials have reportedly warned that America risks running out of munitions. Brent fell 5% on the lull.

Iran said a Ukrainian attack on an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea killed a sailor, and urged European countries to hold Kyiv accountable to stop the war from widening. Netanyahu will meet Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

The Houthis continue to exchange strikes with Saudi Arabia despite the US-Iran pause. Most recently they hit the Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq.

Comment: my Iran war coverage is for paid subscribers only.

Saudi Arabia and America signed a deal to build a civilian nuclear program in the kingdom. The agreement, which Congress must review, would reportedly last 30 years and could allow American companies to build a uranium-enrichment facility there. A day later Trump said the deal is “totally subject” to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham accords and does not include “enrichment of material”. Saudi Arabia has refused to normalize ties with Israel without a serious path to a Palestinian state.

Comment: my Iran war coverage is for paid subscribers only.

Israel withdrew troops from three “pilot zone” villages in southern Lebanon and the Lebanese army deployed behind them, the first test of the US-brokered agreement. The Lebanese army has accused Israel of obstructing the handover with continued shelling; Netanyahu described the moves as “redeployments” rather than withdrawals.

Comment: we are still in the pilot phase. Not for long.

Europe

Volodymyr Zelensky sacked Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, after days of protests calling for the general’s ousting. Mykhailo Drapaty, the commander of Ukraine’s joint forces, will replace him. Demonstrators are also demanding the reinstatement of Mykhailo Fedorov, the defense minister dismissed last week; Zelensky said Fedorov would receive a “prominent position”.

Ukrainian drones struck seven warehouses belonging to Wildberries, Russia’s biggest online retailer, in the space of a week. Zelensky said he is “bringing the war back home” to Russia by targeting logistics hubs that supply drones and gear to its military. Russia said it attacked Ukraine’s port infrastructure and ships in response.

Alexander Novak, Russia’s deputy prime minister, said the government would maintain its ban on petrol exports until the end of the year and is considering extending its ban on diesel exports. Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries have caused fuel shortages, rationing and queues at petrol stations across Russia.

Comment: Zelensky continues to prove he is a sharp politician who can maneuver out of any crisis. At the same time, Ukraine achieves new successes thanks to targeting Russian supply chains rather than fighting on the front. However, we are all awaiting the next big move from Russia. I also do think it's coming—Putin needs a breakthrough this year, even if “only” a political one.

Andy Burnham began his premiership by promising to remove VAT from household electricity bills from October. Critics dismissed the £850m ($1.1bn) policy, which will save the average household £45 a year, as “unfunded”. Burnham insisted his government would maintain “fiscal discipline” while taking “a little bit of pressure off people’s shoulders”.

Comment: well, he is trying. But the UK is in a difficult spot that needs a bolder vision than removing VAT on electricity ahead of what will probably be the most expensive winter in recent European history.

France’s parliament passed a bill banning social media for children under 15, the first such law in the EU. Platforms must impose age-verification checks on new accounts from September and shut down accounts of underage users. Britain’s government has considered a similar law.

Comment: this is a setup to ban pseudonymous accounts in the future. I’m old enough to remember ACTA protests in Poland. And now the French are just next in line among nations giving away part of their power over the internet to the government…

Ozgur Ozel, the deposed leader of Turkey’s main opposition party, registered a new party to challenge Recep Tayyip Erdogan, taking 90 MPs with him from the CHP. Ozel was removed as CHP leader by a court in May, in what was widely seen as a political crackdown. Early polling puts his new party ahead of Erdogan’s AK Party.

Comment: I think it’s a bit too late to challenge Erdogan in open elections.

An intern at NATO’s military headquarters in Belgium was arrested for spying. Belgian authorities said the woman is a Canadian national of Chinese origin, suspected of spying for an undisclosed “third country” at SHAPE, the alliance’s command center in Mons.

Comment: spying Chinese interns are now in Europe after penetrating the US startup scene. It looks like China is expanding its covert ops capabilities with success. But jokes aside, it’s a major security breach. Who knows what the intern could really access or see…

Wildfires forced more than 300,000 people to flee their homes in France and Spain. Blazes reached the suburbs of Bordeaux, prompting France’s biggest peacetime evacuation since the second world war, while Spain declared its first national emergency over a wildfire as fires merged outside Madrid; one man died in Valencia. Sébastien Lecornu, France’s prime minister, said wildfires “have reached a level that has never been seen before”.

Comment: El Niño continues to destroy European crops. It will be a tough winter—expensive gas, electricity and food…

A car plowed into a crowd at a gay-pride event in Berlin, killing one person and injuring 29, in what authorities called an Islamist terrorist attack. The suspect was shot dead by police after a manhunt. Kai Wegner, the city’s mayor, described it as “an attack on our free and open society”. Germany has seen several similar attacks in recent years.

Comment: it’s been a while since the last one. Thankfully, this one was not as deadly.

Other

OpenAI said that GPT-5.6 Sol, a frontier model, and an unreleased model escaped a sandboxed testing environment and hacked into Hugging Face’s systems without being told to do so, going online and stealing login credentials after finding a zero-day vulnerability. Hugging Face said it used a Chinese model to defend itself because the guardrails on American models made them useless.

Comment: these are quite scary stories, unless they are partially misleading. Neither option is a good sign. The models are way more capable than a year ago and I can see it through my work. And supposedly the frontier labs have even better models that are unreleased.

SpaceX completed the 13th test flight of Starship, its first since the company’s IPO in June. The rocket deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites, and the ship’s splashdown was gentle enough that it floated intact on the ocean rather than exploding. SpaceX described it as its best re-entry yet.

Comment: finally! Whatever you think about Elon, I do want this one to progress and succeed.

The European Commission approved Paramount’s $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery, on the condition that it exits United International Pictures, its European distribution venture with Universal, within 13 months. Paramount also agreed to delay closing until June 2027 at the latest while a judge considers the antitrust lawsuit brought by twelve American states. Paramount said the claims “cannot withstand scrutiny”.

Comment: the timeline on the acquisition keeps stretching. But I do think that the Trump admin will push this one through.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’m working on a USMCA deep dive while I monitor the Clarity Act situation. Otherwise, we are all watching Iran.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! Nine nights of bombing, tankers ablaze, and Brent above $90. The war for the Strait is escalating fast. Some reports suggest a ground invasion could be coming. I won’t jump to such conclusions too soon, but tensions are definitely high.

Additionally, thanks to a new Substack feature, I have a small segment just for my paid subscribers in today’s article.

We had plenty of developments outside of the Iran war, so let’s look at prediction markets to make sense of the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Trump used a primetime White House address to accuse China of helping to rig America’s elections, blaming the deep state for covering up “China’s sinister election meddling” and releasing documents that supposedly prove his case. The Chinese embassy rejected the claims. ABC, CNN and NBC refused to air the speech live and now Trump wants their licenses revoked for it.

Comment: I think that the election interference narrative works well to motivate right-leaning voters. We should see more of that as midterms come closer. The market broadly agrees as chances of any license being revoked are at only 19%.

New York became the first state to freeze construction of large data centers. Anything drawing 50 megawatts or more is on hold for up to a year while officials work out a “regulatory framework”. Anti-data-center sentiment is spreading across America on environmental grounds, utility costs and general distrust of the technology.

Comment: the market spiked on the news, but it needs a proper bill rather than an executive order. Traders now see a 79% chance of a moratorium in any state by the end of the year, fueled by the first step New York made.

Some good news on inflation: the headline rate fell to 3.5% in June, from 4.2% in May, which is a steeper drop than expected, driven by cheaper gas. Core inflation eased to 2.6%. That takes some pressure off the Fed, though Kevin Warsh refused to declare “mission accomplished” and reiterated his commitment to the 2% target.

Comment: traders were a bit surprised by the newest inflation print, but they still expect annual inflation to be above 3.75%. Additionally, a hike is still largely expected:

United Airlines expects almost $6 billion in extra fuel costs this year thanks to geopolitical uncertainty. Fuel spending jumped 84% year on year in Q2. The airline still beat expectations with $17.7 billion in revenue, up 16%.

Comment: but the mainstream media will continue to convince you that all is good and there is no oil shortage. It’s going to get worse before it gets better.

Meta may rent computing power to Anthropic in a deal reportedly worth up to $10 billion over two years, according to the New York Times. Talks are at an early stage, but Zuckerberg has long hinted that Meta’s excess compute is for sale at some premium.

Comment: after the new Kimi model everyone understands that compute is not the bottleneck it used to be.

The Americas

Trump threatened Canada with additional tariffs over the smoke from hundreds of wildfires currently blowing into the US, accusing Ottawa of not properly maintaining its forests. Ontario’s premier Doug Ford called the threat unacceptable and suggested Republicans send help instead.

Comment: for Trump the wildfires are just another occasion to poke Canada. Same as Alberta independence or calling Trudeau the governor of the 51st state.

A 5.5-magnitude earthquake hit Peru’s Andes region, killing at least six people and displacing hundreds. Several buildings collapsed, including a 16th-century church.

Comment: additionally, we had massive storms in Chile, courtesy of El Nino.

Asia

China’s economy is sending mixed signals. Exports jumped 27% year on year in June to a record $412.4 billion. It’s the biggest increase since 2021, powered by AI hardware. Yet GDP grew just 4.3% in Q2, the slowest pace since 2022 and below Beijing’s target. Domestic demand and investment remain weak.

Comment: China also feels the effects of the Iran war.

Apple finally got Chinese regulators’ blessing to launch its AI services on iPhones in the world’s largest smartphone market. Apple Intelligence will run on models from Alibaba and Baidu.

Comment: China just secured a great opportunity for its models to improve through usage. American frontier labs do not really enjoy any significant lead over Chinese labs.

Australia announced it is working on sweeping AI regulations. The legislation, coming to parliament next year, promises copyright protection for artists and will force big data-center operators to underwrite new power supply. A new Office of Artificial Intelligence will oversee it all.

Comment: AI labs are actually welcoming the regulation as it solidifies their place at the top.

South Korea is opening up its currency. From 2027, foreigners will be able to open won accounts at foreign institutions, ending the requirement to route transactions through Korea — a bold step for a country that has long kept a tight grip on its FX markets.

Comment: do we really need more degens trading KOSPI?

Middle East & Africa

The war for the Strait entered its most violent phase yet.

Trump opened the week by declaring America the GUARDIAN of the Strait of Hormuz, reinstating the naval blockade of Iranian ports and proposing a 20% fee on all cargo passing through.

A day later he backtracked on the fee, saying Gulf states would make trade and investment deals with the US instead. The blockade stayed.

The bombing did too. America has now hit Iran for nine consecutive nights, targeting surveillance sites, air defenses, logistics and weapons storage, and threatened to go after power plants and bridges unless Iran gets to the table and negotiates.

Iran answered with missile and drone strikes on American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, and hit a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant. Two American servicemen were killed in Jordan on Friday and one is missing; a third was killed in Iraq over the weekend, taking the US death toll in the war to 17.

Shipping is caught in the middle of it all. The UAE said Iranian missiles struck two of its supertankers, killing a sailor; Iran later claimed two ships using an unsafe route had an accident and that the strait remains under its complete control. Traffic has collapsed and Brent passed $90.

Comment: I have a small update for my paid subscribers. Otherwise, I wrote an article on the recent Iran war developments, and recorded a video with my thoughts on the markets:

Houthi rebels fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia’s Abha airport after Saudi strikes on Sana’a’s airport, which were meant to stop a plane carrying a Houthi delegation home from Ali Khamenei’s funeral in Tehran. It is the first major Houthi–Saudi escalation since 2022.

Comment: I don’t think either side wants to fire up Yemen along with Lebanon. That said, if we have any surprises in Lebanon, closing the strait is very much in play.

Chevron signed preliminary deals for stakes in Iraq’s oil fields and joined a consortium studying a pipeline through Syria that would bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely. Trump also teased “massive” oil deals with Iraq.

Comment: this is all great news, but it won’t be up and running anytime soon. It doesn’t change anything for the ongoing Iran war.

Europe

It was a busy week for Ukraine, at the front and at home. At the coalition of the willing summit in Paris, Ukraine and nine European countries agreed to build a shared ballistic-missile defense for Europe, drawing on Ukraine’s experience.

Back in Kyiv, Zelensky reshuffled his government. Parliament confirmed Sergiy Koretsky, boss of state energy giant Naftogaz, as prime minister, with a mandate to focus on relations with America and the EU and on securing weapons.

The reshuffle came at a price. Protests broke out across the country after Zelensky sacked Mykhailo Fedorov, the popular defense minister behind Ukraine’s drone-warfare buildup. Zelensky said Fedorov kept clashing with the generals and that he had to choose between sides; Fedorov says his initiatives were blocked.

On the battlefield, Ukraine keeps squeezing Russia at sea, claiming 116 strikes on Russian ships in the Sea of Azov in nine days, including 11 last week. The waterway carries a quarter of Russia’s wheat exports; Lavrov called the campaign “terrorism, pure and simple”.

Russia hit back at the capital with one of its heaviest attacks in months — 41 missiles and 125 drones overnight on Sunday, killing at least one person and starting fires in five districts of Kyiv.

Comment: interesting, as Ukraine started to gain the initiative, Zelensky replaced the mastermind behind the new plan. Maybe the campaign is too effective and endangers the global oil supply. The Iran war surely takes precedence..

Andy Burnham was confirmed as Labour leader with the backing of 379 of the party’s 403 MPs and takes over from Keir Starmer on Monday. In his speech he said Britain took a wrong turn in the 1980s, when political power was centralized and economic power was privatized, promising devolution and public control over the cost of the essentials. No ministerial team yet.

He inherits a fragile economy. GDP grew 0.1% in May after an Iran-war-driven 0.1% contraction in April, with services doing all the work while production and construction fell.

He also inherits a tense country. Counter-terrorism police took over the investigation into the death of Ann Widdecombe, the Reform UK politician found dead in her home, after new information and evidence emerged. A 28-year-old man arrested earlier in the case has been rearrested on terrorism charges.

Lastly, Britain nationalized British Steel on national-security grounds, and China is not happy. Jingye, the Chinese owner since 2020, is demanding compensation, while Beijing warned the takeover will directly affect Chinese investors’ confidence in the country.

Comment: I’ve already commented a bit on the shape of the new Cabinet in my video. However, the nationalization of British Steel is an interesting decision. Europeans are clearly getting up to speed with what’s happening in the world and they are starting to take care of core industries.

Germany is raiding its climate fund. More than €30 billion ($34 billion) earmarked for heat pump and EV subsidies will be shifted to the federal budget or cancelled outright through 2030 as Merz tries to consolidate public finances.

Comment: Germany has big military ambitions nowadays. They need to finance them somehow.

Volkswagen may cut another 50,000 jobs, per an internal memo seen by Reuters, doubling planned cuts to 100,000 by 2030, 16% of the workforce. Years of falling sales, especially in China, are forcing Europe’s largest carmaker to shrink.

Comment: the fall of the German economy continues.

Other

Spain won the World Cup, beating Argentina 1-0. It took until the second half of extra time to break down the reigning champions, who finished the match with ten men. Trump handed over the trophy alongside FIFA’s controversial boss Gianni Infantino.

Comment: it was a great World Cup, despite low expectations.

Twelve states sued to block Paramount’s $111 billion takeover of Warner Bros Discovery, arguing it hands Paramount too much control over film distribution. The DOJ already approved the deal; the lawsuit could push it past its September 30th deadline, triggering a ticking fee owed to shareholders each quarter.

Comment: I wonder if Netflix had anything to do with it…

Wrap up

That’s all for today! This week comes my deep dive on the Clarity Act. Other than that, I’ll continue to monitor the Iran situation as we might be on the verge of a new chapter in this conflict.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! It was a tense week. We are back to strikes in the Persian Gulf while the NATO summit in Ankara saw the continuation of the American soft-exit from the alliance. We also had a Chinese missile test and a surprising twist in the Ukraine war.

Domestically in the US, not only did Graham Platner dropped off the Senate race, but we also saw Lindsey Graham pass away. May the perpetual war hawk finally find some peace.

What can I say, there’s no rest in global affairs. Let’s take a look at the markets and make sense of the world.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Trump criticized European allies and revived his demand for Greenland at NATO summit in Turkey. He also said that both Russia and Ukraine want to make a deal to end the war.

Comment: let’s unpack it. Greenland is crucial for a comprehensive defense of the Western Hemisphere. It is also an important entry/exit from the North Pole. The deal on new bases and American military presence is coming, to be determined if this year. When it comes to Russia and Ukraine it’s true. Both sides want to make a deal. But a different one. While Putin is obviously in a worse position than a year ago, the summer offensive is not yet here and it can change the calculus. We now need to wait and see.

America will grant Ukraine the right to make Patriots.

Comment: I just said to not trust peace rumors. Here you have another confirmation. Ramping up production takes time, it’s a long-term deal.

Lindsey Graham died aged 71, probably from a cardiac arrest. His office said it was a brief and sudden illness. He had recently returned from a trip to Ukraine.

Comment: maybe now he will know peace. Also, there’s nothing conspiratorial about his death.

Graham Platner dropped out of the race for a Senate seat in Maine. His campaign was riddled by controversies, but sexual assault allegations were the final straw. While he denies any wrongdoing, Democrats will have to find a new candidate now.

Comment: Democrats hope to win Maine as they are trying really hard to flip the Senate. Platner drama is quite a big bump on that road. While they are still the slight favorites, a lot will depend on the choice of the next candidate.

The 21st Century Road to Housing Act became law on Saturday. Trump refused to either veto or sign it, allowing it to automatically become law after 10 working days. It’s the first time in nearly a decade that legislation has passed without a presidential signature.

Comment: Trump wanted to tie the approval of the act with the SAVE America Act. However, he couldn’t be seen vetoing a housing-related act considering the dire state of the housing market. He chose a wrong battle.

Kevin Warsh named academics, business leaders and former central bankers to lead new task forces. His picks include Raj Chetty, a Harvard economist, Marc Andreessen, a venture capitalist, and Mervyn King, a former governor of the Bank of England. The groups will examine how policymakers approach data and analyze the drivers of inflation.

Comment: traders seem confident that we will get a rate hike by September with the market going slightly up on the news.

Apple sued OpenAI for stealing trade secrets. The lawsuit aims to show how former Apple employee that is now the chief of hardware in OpenAI has orchestrated a data-stealing scheme that run for months and involved OpenAI employees on every level.

Comment: corporate espionage is real. At first glance it looks like a big lawsuit that could have massive consequences for OpenAI. I’ll be following it closely.

Meta unveiled Muse Spark 1.1, a significant upgrade to its original AI model. The model is closer to frontier models in terms of performance, especially around coding.

Comment: by all accounts, Anthropic is still king. However, Meta, OpenAI and xAI are all closer than before.

Blue Origin, a SpaceX competitor run by Jeff Bezos, is looking to raise $10 billion in VC funding at $130 billion valuation. Blue Origin hopes to deploy a satellite internet service, akin to SpaceX’s Starlink, and beat Mr Musk to his latest moonshot: space-based AI data centers.

Comment: the battle of the tech elites. But in all seriousness, while Bezos is now well behind Musk, the gap will be closed eventually. And competition is always good in frontier tech.

The Americas

Cuba’s national electric grid collapsed. Some generators have been restarted, but the country has been struggling with daily blackouts for months now. Energy minister recently warned that the grid was in a critical state.

Comment: the American pressure continues, however I’ll stop before calling any developments imminent. The country has been in crisis mode for months now. But neither blockades nor air strikes can fully topple a regime. If anything, we should expect a Venezuela model here—meaning a soft regime change. Probably some administration officials are already talking with the Cuban version of Delcy Rodriguez.

Asia

China’s navy said it fired a ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean as part of routine training. The missile landed in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, an area covering Australia, New Zealand and South Pacific islands.

Comment: it’s most likely a test of a new missile. China is not North Korea, it does not need to show strength in that way.

Factory-gate prices in China rose by 4.1% y/y in June, the biggest increase in nearly four years.

Comment: it’s an early sign of struggle in the economy caused by the Iran war. Traders still see inflation lower than 4.5% this year, but the next few months can really change the outlook. It all depends on how much they will massage the data in the coming months.

Australia will export uranium to India for use in its nuclear-energy industry. Modi visited Australia recently to seal the deal. The two countries also agreed to further cooperation on defense.

Comment: Team West is looking to integrate India in its broad structures. It’s yet another sign that this relationship is progressing.

Middle East & Africa

This week we saw massive escalation in the Middle East. After a promising upsurge in the Strait of Hormuz traffic, Iran struck two ships trying to cross the strait, beginning the whole confrontation.

The US targeted various sites across the country in response. The exchange of fire lasted pretty much the whole week, escalating with each round of strikes. Iran targeted military bases across the region, while Americans have reportedly struck energy infra in Iran.

Trump declared the ceasefire effectively over during the NATO summit. Tensions continue to hold as I write this article.

Comment: surprisingly I had no long-form content on the Iran war last week! But to give you a small update, this is a direct result of the Lebanon framework. The Strait of Hormuz was partially open on the understanding that Lebanon would be left alone. Since it wasn’t, Iran responded in kind.

I expect the Lebanon issue to escalate post the diplomatic meeting this week (with a possible action post Lebanon White House meeting on the 21st of July). If it happens, the MoU is dead and the reinstatement of the US blockade becomes even more likely:

Israel dismissed Hamas’s announcement that it would hand over some of its powers to run Gaza to an American-backed body. However, it didn’t commit to disarmament—they said that Israel controls too much territory of Gaza to allow for that to happen.

Comment: as long as there’s no resolution to the Iran war, the Gaza deal will not progress.

Europe

Several European countries launched a $50 billion project to develop long-range missiles over the next decade without American involvement. Most of the key European countries are involved, however Poland is a surprising miss considering its position.

Comment: Europeans are at least a decade late. While the European industry is more than capable of developing a high-end ballistic missile, at this point they should tap into the Ukrainian expertise to streamline the project. Until it happens, it’s just a nice headline, something European elites mastered to perfection.

Germany agreed to buy American Tomahawk missiles. Additionally, it seems that Germany is looking to lead NATO in the midst of the US soft-exit from the alliance.

Comment: since the US cannot formally exit NATO without a Congressional approval, the Trump admin is doing everything it can to lessen its involvement in the alliance. With the power vacuum present, Germany, France and the UK will fight to lead the alliance. But it does seem that Germany is the designated successor when it comes to the NATO structures.

A French appeals court upheld Marine Le Pen’s conviction for misappropriating European Parliament funds. However, it reduced her sentence to three years in prison, with two suspended and one under house arrest with an electronic ankle monitor. That allows her to stand in next year’s presidential election, which she confirmed she is doing, sending waves across the French political scene.

Comment: with Bardella no more, Marine Le Pen is now the favorite to win the upcoming French presidential election. However, she did promise that Bardella will be the prime minister under her.

Under mounting investigations, Nigel Farage resigned as an MP, only to win it back in the by-election. He said the election would cast the people versus the establishment. However, other parties refused to take part in this farce.

Comment: it’s more of a media happening than a real election.

Other

Nothing to report.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I hope to have a deep dive for you this week along with a video on some of the latest developments.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! I hope my American readers had a blast during 4th of July festivities. Now, though, it’s time to catch up with the world. Plenty has happened in the last week and this week, even more can happen.

We have a NATO summit this week in Ankara, on top of continued US-Iran engagements and usual domestic developments across the world.

Let’s take a look a the news, and the markets trading on it!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

SCOTUS has been busy recently. This week, it granted Trump sweeping authority to sack the heads of independent government agencies. In effect, SCOTUS overturned a 91-year-old precedent, Humphrey's Executor. Trump called it the greatest increase in presidential power in the last 100 years.

Comment: Trump now has the outmost control over government agencies like SEC or FTC, the latter being the cause of the whole hearing. However, the ruling does not give the same power when it comes to the Fed. Lisa Cook is safe.

SOCTUS blocked an executive order that would have denied birthright citizenship to the children of undocumented migrants in a separate ruling.

Comment: it was a widely expected decision.

Trump earned more than $1.4 billion from his crypto ventures in 2025, according to a new disclosure. He earned close to another billion from his other businesses.

Comment: it’s no shocker that Trump is using his position to enrich his family.

America’s economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below expectations.

Comment: a weak job market lowered expectations of a Fed hike this year. However, the job market has been weak for quite some time now with previous prints being adjusted lower as time went by. Now the Fed is in a difficult position: should it put pressure on inflation or let it run hot (again) to try and save the labor market? Kevin Warsh is in a difficult spot.

Americans celebrated their country’s 250th birthday. The festivities, however, were limited due to extreme heat.

Comment: various politicians, including Trump, JD Vance and Mamdani, made big speeches on the occasion. However, the day went by with no major announcements.

The Americas

The Trump admin said it would pursue separate trade deals with Mexico and Canada as the USMCA is set to expire this year. The deal will now be reviewed annually.

Comment: the Trump admin has been clear that it wants to renegotiate the deal. It has been pressuring both Canada and Mexico as it wants to extract more concessions from its trading partners, the Alberta independence vote being one of the levers.

Asia

The yen has sunk to a 40-year low against the dollar, driving up import costs and squeezing profit margins in Japan. Satsuki Katayama, the country’s finance minister, vowed to take decisive steps with America’s treasury to prop up the currency.

Comment: Japan is in a tough spot. If they decide to rise the interest rates they risk causing a global financial recession as Japan has been the global lender for the past few decades. Maneuvering between fx markets and rising inflation is becoming increasingly hard.

Afghanistan launched strikes at targets in Pakistan after Pakistani airstrikes hit the country earlier. The countries had agreed to a ceasefire last year, but fighting has continued to break out since then.

Comment: this low-intensity conflict has been going on for months. Sadly, we lack markets for it since the end of June.

Middle East & Africa

Iran and America held indirect talks in Doha. A Qatari spokesman said negotiators made positive progress and that the next round of talks is planned after the Khamenei funeral.

However, Iran is refusing to hold direct talks until terms of the MoU were fully met. Iran is accusing the US of breaching the memorandum by signing the Lebanon framework with Israel. Iran is tightening its control over the Strait of Hormuz as a response.

Comment: it was a quiet week in the Middle East compared to 2026 baseline. However, the Strait of Hormuz, while not entirely closed, still sees less than 30% of usual flow. I believe that the apparent brake will end once the Khamenei funeral is over and the World Cup in the US wraps up.

The Iran war situation continues to be extremely volatile. It is clearly seen in the markets as traders struggle to properly price events with little available information. I wrote an article about it last week:

Six days of formal ceremonies have begun on Saturday to commemorate Khamenei. His body will be transferred across several Iranian cities before being buried on Thursday. Up to 20 million people are expected to visit the coffin in Tehran alone. However, Mojtaba Khamenei will not be one of them.

Comment: we have a short vacation now. Action in the Middle East should resume around July 19th.

Netanyahu asserted that IDF would not leave southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is eliminated. He visited the occupied territory on Tuesday. Separately, America’s House of Representatives failed to pass a war-powers resolution that would have required Congress to approve any American involvement in Israeli military operations in Lebanon.

Comment: on top of everything that has happened, Netanyahu needs to show his strength ahead of the legislative election. Traders now put him behind Gadi Eizenkot in the race for the premiership.

Europe

Russia has continued to attack Ukraine, and Kiev in particular, throughout the week. At the same time, Ukraine continued to hit targets deep in Russia, most recently hitting a refinery in St. Petersburg.

Comment: with the recent developments in Russia, particularly closing the borders with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan, traders expect another round of escalations, rather than a quick peace deal. This summer looks ripe for last-ditch effort.

This week we have a NATO summit in Ankara. Trump is expected to meet Zelensky there and talk about ending the Ukraine war. Additionally, I expect the conversations to revolve around the Iran war and the recent US soft exit from the alliance.

Comment: I don’t expect any major announcements to be made.

Andy Burnham, while slow on his Cabinet picks, began to set out his policy agenda. He pledged to gradually increase public control of utilities, boost local government funding and shift power over economic policy away from London.

Comment: prediction markets are mostly focused on his picks for the Great Offices of State, where Burnham is slow to confirm anyone. When it comes to his overall policies, no major deviation from the Labour Party agenda is expected.

Staying in Britain, Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform UK party, has mounting problems. While his party is leading in the polls, he was referred to Parliament’s standards watchdog for failing to declare benefits from a political ally. He is already facing a probe for not declaring a separate £5 million ($6.7 million) gift from a donor. He denies any wrongdoing.

Comment: just as with Trump, the UK deep state is trying its best to prevent Farage from being able to take power.

Germany’s ruling coalition agreed on a package of reforms, including a €10 billion ($11 billion) in tax cuts for low earners. It also decided on changes to the pension system and hiring-and-firing rules.

Comment: I don’t think these reforms will do nay material difference for the Germany’s economy. It is still on the path of decline and facing maounting threats from China.

Alexandru Munteanu quit as Moldova’s prime minister, triggering the fall of his government. The announcement comes after several government officials were accused of corruption.

Comment: this surely puts a dent in Moldova’s efforts to join the EU.

Other

Cape Verde almost beat Argentina in the Round of 32. Ultimately, after a 111th minute own goal, Cape Verde lost 3-2. In another World Cup news, Balogun, a top US striker, is now expected to play against Belgium in the Round of 16 after FIFA allowed his red card suspension to expire.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! You can expect a monthly recap of my trading tomorrow. Other than that, the content in production is in no state to announce a publication. However, I’m working on an interesting piece that I plan to tease more in the coming days.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! Last one was extremely volatile. Between the Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon and all the other global events, we got little breathing room.

It has also been a wild week on prediction markets. Not only geopolitical, but also tech markets experienced massive volatility. All in all, we are in a very intense period ahead of the more relaxed schedule come July.

Let’s take a look at the markets and make sense of the world!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Senate voted 50-48 to pas a war powers resolution that seeks to limit Trump from taking further military action against Iran without Congressional approval.

Comment: the resolution is mostly meaningless as Trump can simply veto it. While it is a strong statement, it doesn’t really change the reality on the ground. Especially since the US is not actually looking to fight again based on traders’ assessment of the situation.

A federal judge barred Trump from requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote. The president is separately pressuring the Senate to pass a bill containing that requirement.

Comment: traders doubt that Trump will manage to push the act through Congress. Ultimately, it seems that the cause is dead ahead of the midterms.

Inflation rate reached its highest level in more than three years, rising to 4.2% in May, up from 3.8% in April. The increase was largely driven by the Iran war’s impact on energy prices.

Comment: traders now see 45% chance of a rate hike by October meeting. Not really changed since the inflation print as earlier we got the PCE print which is the preferred inflation measure of the Fed. PCE was also the highest in years.

The Trump admin asked OpenAI to restrict the release of its latest model, GTP 5.6, to government-approved partners before fully rolling it out. This is the second model, after Claude Mythos, to have been restricted by America.

Comment: I’m not sure wether the current US approach to AI is the correct one. Other countries can already use both US and Chinese models that prove to be very effective.

On the same note, the Trump admin allowed Anthropic to release Mythos 5 to about 100 trusted partners, including companies and government agencies.

Comment: moving forward, we can expect all US frontier models to be heavily restricted for the common folk…

SCOTUS issued several rulings in line with the Trump admin’s views. It determined that migrants could not claim asylum if they did not physically enter the country, enabling them to be turned back at the border. It also scrapped protections of Haitians’ and Syrians’ rights to work and live in the country. And it struck down a law restricting the right to carry guns in Hawaii.

Comment: small wins matter.

The Americas

Keiko Fujimori has all but officially won Peru presidential election. Roberto Sanchez, her rival, alleged that the election is fraudulent, but he lacked any proof.

Comment: has had her at 99c since the election night.

Two big earthquakes struck Venezuela. The most recent count put the death at over 1,500 and injuries at 3,300. The rescue operations are still ongoing. The UN Development Program estimates that the economic impact of the disaster may amount to roughly 6% of GDP. The two earthquakes are the country’s largest and possibly the deadliest in over a century.

Comment: my thoughts and prayers are with the people of Venezuela.

Manuel Adorni, the chief of staff to Javier Milei, resigned. He is under investigation for graft, including lavish trips and the purchase of a flat at a suspiciously low price. The scandal, which broke out in March, has impacted Milei’s popularity.

Comment: usual day in politics. The crisis will pass.

Asia

Kim Keon Hee, a former first lady of South Korea, was sentenced to seven years in jail for receiving bribes.She is married to the former president, Yoon Suk Yeol, who was ousted and subsequently jailed after declaring martial law in 2024.

Comment: they went after Yoon hard. The fact that they punished his family shows that South Koreans took the insurrection extremely seriously.

Australia will double the maximum penalty for companies failing to enforce its under-16 social media ban to around A$99 million ($68 million). It claims that platforms are not complying with the rules.

Comment: the more resistance to these laws, the better. Access to information shouldn’t be regulated.

Middle East & Africa

This week revolved around the Strait of Hormuz. Initially, we saw a big surge in traffic. However, by the middle of the week, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s lead negotiator, said Iran will administer the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has also agreed to set up a telephone hotline for ships passing through the waterway.

This happened as the IMO corridor saw mored than 60 vessels using it in 24 hours.

America also lifted sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemical exports for 60 days, in line with the MoU.

On Thursday, however, shipping was halted after a Singapore-flagged cargo ship came under attack. The attack came after IRGC threatened all the ships that are crossing the strait without coordinating it with Iran.

The attack was followed by an American response, which was later followed by strike son several American military bases in the region. Both countries continued to trade blows into the weekend despite the ceasefire agreement.

Finally, just before the markets open, America and Iran have reportedly agreed to stand down and continue the negotiations.

On the other side of the Middle East, America, Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement. In it, the three countries agree to cooperate in an effort to restore Lebanon’s government monopoly on arms and full territorial sovereignty.

Comment: the Iranian escalation had most likely resulted from their need to manage the flow through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the subsequent strikes in my opinion resulted from the Lebanon framework. It is essentially a declaration of war on Hezbollah, that technically does not violate the Iran MoU. I write and say more about the Iran war in my recent video and article:

Europe

Ukraine attacked Crimea with drones, hitting a large power plant and leaving Sevastopol without power. Crimea has been under constant attack for months as it is strategically important for the Russian military supply chains.

Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Russia was facing fuel shortages after Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. He said though that the problem was not critical and that his forces would continue to attack Ukraine.

Comment: as both countries escalate, chances for a sustained ceasefire remain extremely low. At 26% chance by the end of the year, the forecast reflects the reality on the ground: after four years of a war of attrition, both sides are tired, but unwilling to compromise. Quite the contrary: they are escalating.

France said it is evaluating its response after Burkina Faso severed diplomatic ties. Burkina Faso, a former French colony, accuses France of supporting terrorists and subversive networks in the West African country.

Comment: as I’ve been saying for over a year now: Africa is extremely important as it is resource-rich. We will have wars there. These are some of the signs.

Andy Burnham was sworn in as a member of Parliament. He is now all but confirmed to replace Keir Starmer. Now the main questions revolve around his cabinet picks.

Comment: his top picks are a small divergence from the Starmer cabinet. Only the Chancellor of the Exchequer is expected to be replaced with Ed Miliband, a staunch left-winger, as a favorite to take the job. One must wander though, what was Wes Streeting promised in return for abandoning Starmer…

Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s president, said he would resign in the next few weeks and trigger early elections. His term had been due to expire in 2027. His announcement was unexpected.

Comment: the protest in the country were slowly losing steam. I’m not sure what prompted him to resign now, but we will see what will come out of it in the next few weeks.

Whole Europe saw record-breaking temperatures this week, prompting big AC debates on X (sic!).

Temperatures approached, and in some cases exceeded, 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit).

Comment: the sudden heatwave caused a fast drought in Europe. You can see the change in color in France in less than a month. Crops season will be devastating, but maybe we will get a strong, good wine as a consolation prize…

Finland’s unemployment rate reached 12.7% in May, the highest since 2000. The country now has the highest joblessness rate in the EU, surpassing Spain. Its economy relies heavily on exports, particularly that of metals and petrochemicals and has suffered from weak demand and disruptions relating to war in Ukraine and Iran.

Comment: young Finns, compared to young Spaniards, have a higher chance to enroll in the army as Finland is bordering with Russia, which has recently threatened to deploy more forces to the border after Finland eased the regulations on import and transit of nuclear weapons.

Volkswagen aims to cut up to 100,000 jobs, double what was previously suggested.

Comment: the German giant simply can’t keep up with the Chinese under the current economic and tariff regime. That’s what years of neglect cause…

Others

Apple raised prices for iPads and MacBooks by around 20% worldwide blaming an unprecedented increase in the cost of memory and storage chips. AI labs are buying out all the capacity. iPhone prices are left unchanged (for now).

Comment: at least chances are we will see some innovation from Apple this year.

Cape Verde, an island nation of around 500,000 people, advanced past the group stage in the World Cup, shocking the markets a bit.

In another World Cup news, Lionel Messi became the World Cup’s highest-ever goal scorer. He now has 18 goals and counting. However, Kylian Mbappe is just two goals behind him.

Comment: are you enjoying the World Cup? Post in the comments who you are rooting for!

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’ve pushed the last week’s deep dive to the Portfolio Update. However, I do have a longer piece that I’m writing and hopefully I’ll manage to publish it this week.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! Last one was dominated by the Iran MoU narrative. However, as usual recently, nothing is as it seems. The US says the Strait of Hormuz is open, while AIS data and ship trackers tell a different story.

Outside of the Iran war, we had some escalations between Russia and Ukraine, as well as a G7 summit in France, where both wars were discussed. Finally, among big news, Keir Starmer has resigned from office, ending a months-long saga.

This and more in today’s Global Outlook!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

A B-52 bomber crashed after taking off from Edwards Air Force Base in California, killing eight people aboard. The Stratofortress was on a routine test mission. Two of the dead were employees of Boeing.

Comment: not sure what to think about this one. Probably a mistake rather than some deliberate action. RIP to all the people inside.

General Motors and Lockheed Martin announced a partnership to boost weapons production in America. The Pentagon facilitated the deal where LM will invest $9 billion on modernizing facilities over four years while GM will invest $7 billion on R&D.

Comment: all these wars surely put American MIC on full capacity. No wonder they need to invest in capacity expansion.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. Nine out of 19 officials forecast at least one rate hike this year though. However, Kevin Warsh did not submit his guidance, inducing a bit of volatility into market expectations.

Comment: hike expectations are pretty much unchanged since early June. Traders still see 61% chance we will see a rate hike this year. However, 61% means that we are barely above coin-flip odds. Despite the headlines, it will be global volatility that will dictate the rates.

The FBI said it thwarted an attack on the White House during Trump’s birthday celebrations. They said that a drone attack was planned on an UFC cage fight. Five people were arrested.

Comment: what can I say, Trump is a polarizing figure…

SCOTUS ruled that marijuana users should not be barred from owning guns, siding unanimously with a man who was charged with illegally possessing a firearm after admitting to regularly using cannabis. Justices argued that such a ban would violate constitutional gun rights.

Comment: SCOTUS also argued that since most states have legalized cannabis to some degree, “marijuana use today is like alcohol use at the founding”. It paves the way for weed rescheduling and traders noticed that, increasing the Yes price from 28c to 32c.

The Americas

Abelardo de la Espriella won the presidential run-off election in Colombia. After an initial count he got 49.7% of the vote vs 48.7% for Ivan Cepeda.

Comment: traders saw that coming after Abelardo unexpectedly won the first round, giving him around 90% chance to win the run-off. Trump must be happy now since the president elect is a right-winger.

Asia

China imposed export controls on two American rare earth firms, among others, in another small escalation of the trade war between the two countries.

Comment: the news had little effect on overall tariff agreement chances. With Xi’s visit to DC later this year, traders remain extremely bullish on a deal happening this year.

Middle East & Africa

This week was all about the MoU between the US and Iran. The details of the deal emerged gradually as Trump made various comments during the G7 summit in France. His visit commenced in him signing the deal, however no Iranian representative was present at the time to sign it along.

However, shortly after the Pakistan prime minister announced that Iran had also signed the deal. The difference is that while Trump touts the agreement as a major victory, Iran is still waiting for a ceasefire in Lebanon to implement the pre-agreed clauses.

Israel is obviously furious with the deal as it promises a lot of wins for Iran (release of frozen assets, sanctions relief, etc.), while it ties Israel’s hands when it comes to Hezbollah. JD Vance is the one to push back on these claims.

The US also lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports, but outside of that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as Israel and Hezbollah continue fighting. Even a ceasefire failed to stop either.

Finally, JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner travelled to Switzerland and held talks with the Iranian delegation. However, nothing constructive came out of the talks and we await any progress.

Comment: a slop deal has been signed. However, a slop deal does not resolve the underlying issues between the US, Israel and Iran. Thus nothing material has changed. More on the Iran war tomorrow.

Europe

The G7 summit in France saw world leaders talk about the Iran war and the Ukraine war. Trump even said that “maybe we can do something” about the Ukraine war and that Russia should make a deal. He talked with Zelensky and supposedly both reached a deeper understanding when it comes to the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Comment: strongly worded statements do not change anything. Traders still see little chance for a sustained ceasefire in Ukraine this year.

Ukraine attacked Moscow with nearly 200 drones. Zelensky said it was a response to Russia’s attack on Kyiv earlier in the week.

Comment: this summer we should see an escalation in the war. Both sides feel the attrition and without any breakthrough neither can hope for a good deal.

The European Parliament voted to allow countries to open “return hubs” outside EU borders. Illegal migrants may be held there while awaiting deportation or detained indefinitely.

Comment: the public backlash needed to be addressed. The EU is slowly changing course on migration as right-wing parties rise. However, it might be too late to prevent the right-wing rise.

Keir Starmer has resigned from office after Andy Burnham won his Makerfield by-election. Starmer faced mounting pressure for months and Andy’s victory finally tipped the scales.

Comment: it’s been long time coming.

World, Business, Finance & Economics

SpaceX agreed to buy Anysphere for $60 billion, the creator of Cursor, a popular tool for coding with AI.

Comment: well-spent IPO funds? I don’t think so. But maybe Grok will finally improve…

Intel stock rose by almost 11% after Trump said that the company would partner with Apple to design and make semiconductors in America.

Comment: it pays to hold any company with government stake.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! We’re back to regular programing after my trip. Jet lag is still an issue, but with my time free, expect a deep dive tomorrow, a video during the week and a portfolio update on Friday.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! We seem to have peace, but do we really? It’s been a wild week with developments across geopolitics, tech and AI. At the same time, I’ve been on the Manifest conference where I met plenty of traders that I talk with on a daily basis online.

I’m planning to write something about my experience and observations so stay tuned. Now, since the article is already late, let’s get up to speed with the world.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

A federal judge ruled that Trump’s proposed $100,000 charge on new applications for H-1B visas in unlawful after several states sued the Trump admin post-fee announcement.

Comment: the fee was not being paid anyway. Just another useless battle…

The Pentagon added dozens of Chinese businesses to its list of firms that threaten national security. The list includes BYD, Alibaba and Baidu. As a result, these companies will be barred from doing business with America’s armed forces.

Comment: reporting claims that this action might complicate upcoming summits between Trump and Xi. However, the top firms mentioned already did little business with the armed forces.

Graham Platner became the Democratic candidate for the Senate in Maine after sweeping the primary, securing nearly 75% of the vote. He will now face the Republican incumbent, Susan Collins, in the midterms.

Comment: traders project that Platner has a decent chance in flipping the seat. This is one of the most important races as Democrats are trying to gain control of the Senate in the upcoming midterms.

Trump nominated Jay Clayton, one of New York’s top federal prosecutors, to be the next director of national intelligence. A former chairman of the SEC is considered a better candidate than the acting director Pulte, who received a lot of backlash in the recent weeks.

Comment: I don’t have anything in particular to say here as I’m not really familiar with Clayton.

The Americas

Trump said he was not looking to renew USMCA. Canada, Mexico and the US must extend the deal by July 1st or face annual reviews. Trump claimed that America does not need anything that Canada or Mexico produce (sic!).

Comment: USMCA was not the deal Trump was hoping to make when he exited NAFTA during his first term. However, saying that the US doesn’t need anything Canada or Mexico produce is a straight lie. Even such a simple resource as Canadian oil is necessary for US energy industry as crucial mixer to the US light-sweet oil. As I’ve repeatedly highlighted, Trump is just putting pressure on America’s trading partners to extract better terms. Looking at the situation now, I believe that he is looking to finally split the deal into 2 separate agreements, something he initially aimed to do.

Trump said that American armed forces had executed Hector Guerrero Flores, better known as Niño Guerrero, head of Tren De Aragua, a Venezuelan gang. Trump said that the airstrike had been coordinated with Venezuela.

Comment: mostly a PR win as it hardly disables the organization.

We had a presidential election run-off in Peru. The vote was extremely close, to the point where the leftist candidate, Roberto Sanchez, asked Keiko Fujimori, his right-wing rival to jointly request a recount. With close to 99% of the vote counted, Keiko is only 25,000 votes ahead.

Comment: while media presents the count as contested and controversial, traders are virtually sure Keiko will be the winner.

Asia

Pakistan said it killed at least 26 militants from Afghanistan in air strikes at the border. The Afghan Taliban disputed the account.

Comment: it’s a bit forgotten conflict amid all the tensions in the Middle East. But it does play a part in the grander scheme of things. Remember that Pakistan is the key mediator in the US-Iran war and it is hardly objective.

Indonesia’s central bank raised interest rates by 0.25 pp, to 5.5%, a week before its next scheduled meeting.

Comment: the rupiah fell a lot vs USD since the Iran war had started. The central bank is trying to protect the currency, but it can only do so much in the face of structural problems…

Seven people and two companies were charged over a fire at a housing complex in Hong Kong that killed 168 people in November. The defendants were involved in renovations of the buildings. The charges, including manslaughter and conspiracy to defraud, are the first to come out of a months-long inquiry into the blaze.

Comment: while not a very consequential global event, it will be an interesting case study. Initially, bamboo scaffolding was blamed for the spread of fire in an effort to ban it. I’m monitoring the case to showcase how a change in regulation can be forced by various groups of interest, in this case the producers of metal scaffolding.

A court in South Korea sentenced Yoon Suk Yeol, a former president, to 30 years in prison on charges related to sending drones into North Korea. Prosecutors argued Mr Yoon ordered the operation to provoke North Korea, giving him a pretext to declare martial law in December 2024.

Comment: in case you missed it, Koreans are making an example out of Yoon to prevent any future coups.

Middle East & Africa

It’s been a wild week in the Middle East. We started with strikes between Israel and Iran, that were a response to the violation of a ceasefire in Lebanon. While both sides quickly agreed to stop them, the US launched strikes on Iran shortly after, as tensions rose in the region.

The whole situation seemed to be escalating as neither side seemed to be ready to give up. We even ended up with Iranian strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain. However, as the weekend began, we started to hear of yet another imminent deal.

Many traders doubted the narrative, but we ended up with both sides announcing an agreement has been reached. We have an official signing ceremony scheduled for Friday. However, a series of issue persist.

On the one hand, we have an unresolved situation in Lebanon. Israel seems eager to continue its campaign there, in defiance of a supposed deal.

On the other hand, there still seems to be a lot of doubt about the Strait of Hormuz issue, despite Trump’s claims that it will be ope to all this week.

We are yet to hear the details of the presumed deal.

Comment: I’m writing an article on the current situation. I’ve already explored a “fake deal” scenario in my previous deep dives, but now it’s time to actually delve deeper into what it means for the future of this conflict, and the region.

Europe

Zelensky met with the leaders of Britain, France and Germany in London. After the meeting, they issued a joint statement on the ceasefire proposal that didn’t really differ from anything we’ve seen in the last year or so.

Comment: even this week’s G7 summit won’t really change anything. Only the continued strike campaign on Russian energy infra can force the situation to break out of the current stalemate.

Zelensky also said the army will raise wages and try to recruit more volunteer fighters from abroad. Monthly wages for most soldiers will rise by a third, to around $700, while frontline troops will receive about $7,000 a month.

Comment: since the European loan of €90 billion is on, Ukraine has the official funding to utilize in its defensive campaign. But the fact that recruitment is focused on foreigners indicates there is a real shortage of willing fighters that can impact negotiations a few months down the line.

Latvia’s defence ministry said NATO jets shot down a drone that entered the country’s airspace from Russia. Officials did not say whether it was Ukrainian or Russian.

Comment: both sides have their struggles. For me it means that we should see a new push to break the stalemate this summer. It remains to be seen if it’s a new front from the north to put pressure on Kiev, or an op to disrupt the NATO supply chains.

The EU proposed to ban all Russian soldiers who have served in Ukraine from entering the bloc. The move is part of a new round of sanctions to be voted on by member states.

Comment: the EU’s actions continue to show commitment to Ukraine, raising chances we will see Ukraine’s accession to the union eventually.

Anti-immigrant protest broke out in Belfast, Northern Ireland after a man was seriously injured in a stabbing by a Sudanese migrant. Police used water cannon to disperse rioters during a second night of unrest in Belfast. A crowd threw bricks, stones and bottles at officers trying to control anti-immigration demonstrations that had turned violent.

Comment: business as usual in the UK, I would say…

Keir Starmer appointed Dan Jarvis as Britain’s defense secretary, hours after John Healey resigned from the position. Mr Healey said that a planned increase in defense spending would fall well short of what the armed forces require.

Comment: the resignation from the Cabinet are a continued signal that Starmer is on his way out.

Britain’s economy shrank by 0.1% in April, its first monthly contraction since August, as the Iran war’s impact began to be felt. Output in the services sector fell by 0.2%, outweighing modest growth in manufacturing.

Comment: my thesis on the SOH closure having adverse effect on the global economy over the long-term is slowly starting to materialize.

Fidesz reelected Viktor Orban as its leader with the support of 729 of 737 delegates. Orban announced an organizational overhaul of the party in a response to the defeat in April’s election.

Comment: seems like our guy is not retiring after all. Hungarian politics will continue to be interesting for the foreseeable future.

Swiss voters rejected, by nearly 55% to 45%, a proposal to cap the country’s population at 10 million. The defeat is a blow to the anti-immigration Swiss People’s Party.

Comment: it went pretty much as traders expected it would.

World, Business, Finance & Economics

SpaceX raised $75 billion in the world’s biggest IPO. It ended Friday session valued at $2.1 trillion, making Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.

Comment: traders see a fair chance we could go even higher than that.

OpenAI filed for an IPO as well, trying to keep up pace with xAI, which is part of SpaceX and Anthropic, which filed for an IPO last week.

Comment: traders, however, are not so confident we will see the long-awaited IPO this year, with chances of one by the end of September only at 25%.

Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, a safeguarded Mythos-class model, only to have it banned by the US government days later. It came after Dario Amodei himself said that governments should be able to block public releases of some models if independent audits determine them to be too risky. How ironic, huh?

Comment: the US government deems Mythos-class model as national security risk and wants them to be available to US citizens only. I posted some of my thoughts here:

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’m still on my trip in the California time zone so articles will be slightly delayed. However, I aim to publish a piece on the Iran deal, as well as some other trading thoughts this week.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! Monday started with the news of strikes between Israel and Iran. Small kinetic action is back, but nothing is as it seems. The Ukraine war is also getting interesting as Zelensky asked for a meeting with Putin.

Let’s take a look at the markets and get up to speed with the world.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Trump picked Bill Pulte, head of a federal housing agency, to become the acting Director of National Intelligence. He has no previous national security experience.

Comment: Pulte is not expected to be a permanent pick. However, traders project that no other pick will be announced this year. It means that effectively, Pulte is not the Director for the foreseeable future. Pulte is a Trump loyalist thus expect him to do Trump’s bidding.

Trump signed an executive order requesting AI companies allow the government to vet powerful models 30 days before their release to the public (or any other company). It’s a scaled back version of the previous proposal.

Comment: the order claims voluntary cooperation with AI companies and traders are debating whether it is enough to resolve the market. Seems like not enough considering the current price and the fact that there is no enforcement on voluntary cooperation.

Republicans in the Senate voted down a Democratic attempt to block Trump’s proposed $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund. The DOJ has already said it has abandoned the plan.

Comment: the plan to extract government money failed.

Trump insisted that raising interest rates would be the wrong thing to do after a strong jobs report raised speculation that the Fed could tighten monetary policy by the end of the year.

Comment: Kevin Warsh is in a difficult spot. Despite the pressure, there is 60% chance that he will raise the rates by the end of the year. As I’ve repeatedly written, the Fed will be very interesting to watch now.

The Americas

Mastercard and Visa are fleeing Cuba as America tightens sanctions on the country. They suspended transactions for non-American visitors. Iberostar and Melia, Spanish hotel giants, said they are pulling out of managing at least a dozen Cuban hotels each.

Comment: there are only 10% chances for an economic agreement by the end of the month. This aligns with my initial research on the topic. Cuba will take time.

Asia

Xi is visiting North Korea this week for the first time since 2019. It will be his first overseas trip this year. In March train services between the two countries resumed after a six-year suspension.

Comment: tighter cooperation is coming.

Middle East & Africa

The US and Iran continued to exchange fire last week. There were strikes on Qeshm Island, Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain and Israel. The escalation follows Israeli strikes on Beirut, an Iranian red line. This comes despite the recent extension of the Lebanon ceasefire.

Exchange of fire between Iran and Israel continues as I write this outlook.

Trump is trying to distance the US from the strikes, claiming he urged Netanyahu not to retaliate. Additionally, the US reportedly didn’t take part in the recent escalation. Iran requires a ceasefire in Lebanon to continue the negotiations.

Comment: I wrote a deep dive on the Iran war last week. This escalation is Iran forcing the Lebanon issue back on the table. Regional spheres of influence are back in play for the MoU:

Europe

Zelensky called for face-to-face talks with Putin. In a letter, Zelensky proposed meeting in a third country, with the starting point of the negotiations being the front line today. Zelensky also said that negotiations must involve Europe, with America’s focus on Iran. Putin rejected the proposal, seeing no point in the meeting.

Comment: something is happening. Either the rejection is performative or Russia has a new operation ready to launch.

Russia accused Ukraine of launching an unprecedented attack on St Petersburg. The Kremlin said more than 140 drones were shot down in the region. Yesterday, Zelensky met with leaders from Britain, France and Germany to discuss the war effort.

Comment: same old, same old.

JD Vance blamed the murder on Henry Nowak in Britain on a mass invasion of migrants, echoing Nigel Farage. Henry Nowak was handcuffed by police after being stabbed by a Sikh man falsely accusing him of racism. His death sparked violent protests.

Comment: never a bad day to advance your political goals.

World, Business, Finance & Economics

El Nino, the weather pattern which raises global temperatures and alters rainfall, is expected to start imminently, according to the World Meteorological Organization. It could be the strongest such event in decades. It could substantially increase the risks of extreme weather such as droughts and torrential rainfall over the next nine to twelve months.

Comment: despite the warnings, traders still believe 2026 won’t be the hottest on record. However, volatile weather, combined with the shortage of fertilizer, can be devastating for this year’s harvest.

SpaceX unveiled plans to raise $75 billion in an IPO. This would be the biggest IPO ever and it would value SpaceX at almost $1.77 trillion.

Comment: traders expect the closing market cap to be in the $2-2.5 trillion range.

Blackstone is limiting withdrawals from its $45 billion private credit fund, after investors attempted to pull out $4.5 billion in Q1. Partners Group, a Swiss private equity, limited withdrawals from its flagship fund to 5% in Q2. The move follows a similar pattern in Q1.

Comment: liquidity is in high demand.

The World Cup is coming soon, are you going to watch the games?

Wrap up

That’s all for today! It’s a travel week for me as I’m going to Manifest so no deep dive this week. But I will be back on Friday with the portfolio update and during the week with State of the PROPHET NOTES.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! It feels like the Trump admin is all in on teasing us as there is no progress whatsoever. The imminent Iran deals that never come, alien disclosure that fell short of a promise; pick your poison, Trump will tease you regardless of your issue.

Outside of US politics, the week was full of developments in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as some updates from Asia and Europe. Check it out and get ahead!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The US is mired by its usual problems of illegal immigration and questionable foreign policy.

Ken Paxton defeated John Cornyn in a Republican primary to contest Cornyn’s seat in the senate in the midterms. A late endorsement from Trump helped Paxton secure a win.

Comment: Paxton is considered a controversial figure. We’ll see how much of a problem that proves to be in the coming months. Traders have him as a slight favorite, with 60% chance for victory.

Pete Hegseth attended the Shangri-La Dialogue where he said that America’s relations with China were better than they’ve been in many years. He also said that China’s historic military build-up meant that the US allies ought to spend more on defense. Additionally, America, Australia and Britain agreed to develop aquatic drones to protect subsea cables at the conference.

Comment: performative yapping if you ask me. Nothing groundbreaking was presented or said at the conference.

A federal judge temporarily blocked the Trump admin from implementing a $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund to pay alleged victims of government lawfare. A group of challengers argued that it would unfairly benefit people claiming to have been harmed by Democratic, but not Republican, administrations.

Comment: the fund is looking at a mountain of opposition. Traders see less than 20% chance it will pay a Jan 6 rioter anytime soon.

The Trump administration teased non-human intelligence confirmation by publishing an aliens.gov website, only to have it deal with illegal immigration.

Comment: the Trump admin is looking to put as much attention as possible on the issues it is sure to win on. However, with so many problems around the world, and the resulting inflation, I doubt this is the way to salvage the midterms.

The Americas

The World Cup is coming.

Mexico agreed to act as the base for Iran’s soccer team during the World Cup. The tournament is jointly hosted by America, Canada and Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum said that America did not want the Iranian team to stay overnight in the US.

Comment: Iran is hardly a favorite to win the World Cup, but its presence is surely interesting amid the Iran war.

Bolivia’s centrist president, Rodrigo Paz, said he would cut his salary in half to appease protesters calling for his resignation. Other members of his government are also going to see their salaries cut. His government has faced weeks of demonstrations calling for an end to austerity measures. Paz insists they are necessary to fix public finances.

Comment: traders don’t really expect Paz to go out soon.

Asia

Some scattered news from Asia.

At least 55 people were killed and dozens were injured by an explosion in a village in a region of Myanmar controlled by Ta’ang National Liberation Army. It’s one of the most powerful armed groups opposing the country’s ruling military junta. TNLA blamed explosives used in mining.

Comment: the war in Myanmar continues despite no one looking. It is simply not a priority to handle for anyone. For now, all the interest groups are fine with continued hostilities.

On the Shangri-La Dialogue, India said it had finalized a sale to Vietnam of its supersonic, long-range BrahMos missiles.

Comment: Vietnam is a rising star in SEA.

Japan’s population fell by 3 million between 2020 and 2025, the sharpest decline on record. The country has returned to its population of the late 1980s.

Comment: Japan is clearly headed in a difficult direction.

Middle East & Africa

The Iran war peace deal roller-coaster continues in the Middle East.

During the last weeks, we oscillated between small US and Iranian strikes and an imminent peace deal.

Both sides criticized each other while claiming their strikes are for defensive purposes only.

Iran began restoring internet access after an 88-day digital blackout.

Throughout the week, the Trump admin was teasing an imminent deal, including JD Vance saying that the deal was very close.

Donald Trump ultimately went into the Situation Room to make his final decision, only to reject the deal.

Masoud Pezeshkian is rumored to have resigned from presidency, citing outsized IRGC influence in the country. However, Iran is denying the rumors.

Comment: as usual, more of my insights on the Iran war are available in the recent portfolio update and the video I made over the weekend:

The IDF said it has intensified attacks on Lebanon, after Netanyahu ordered an escalation of its offensive against Hezbollah.

The IDF ordered the evacuation of much of southern Lebanon as it carried out strikes on the city of Tyre. Hezbollah said it had engaged with Israeli troops “at point-blank range” near the town of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah.

The escalation continues to this day.

Comment: as the Middle Eastern peace efforts fail, it is expected that Israel will continue its operations in Lebanon for the foreseeable future.

Netanyahu said he directed Israel’s armed forces to seize at least 70% of Gaza. Additionally, Hamas confirmed the death of Mohammed Odeh, its new military leader, in an Israeli air strike on Gaza.

Comment: traders see a decent chance of a proper offensive starting. If the Iran war negotiations take too long, I also expect Gaza to fire up again.

Ghana’s parliament passed a bill making it illegal to say you are LGBT+ or to have gay sex. A similar bill was also passed in 2024, but the then president refused to sign it. The current president, John Mahama, has said that he will make this one law.

Comment: Ghana seems to be focusing on everything, but the important things… But maybe Trump will appreciate the move.

Europe

The situation in Ukraine seems to be heating up.

Russia warned foreigners to leave Kyiv ahead of systemic strikes targeting defense facilities. It is a response to a deadly Ukrainian attack on a student dorm in the Luhansk region. Vladimir Putin also signed a law to allow his country’s army to intervene abroad to help Russian citizens.

Separately, Zelensky appealed to Trump and America’s Congress for more Patriot PAC-3 missiles and other air defense system to counter missile attacks by Russia.

Last week, Russian drone crossed into Romania and struck a block of flats in Galati, a city near the border with Ukraine, according to the Romanian defense ministry. Two people were injured.

Comment: the Ukraine war is heating up, while many experts forecast a big summer offensive from Russia. I’ll keep monitoring the situation.

Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia in protest at its ally’s attempts to establish closer ties with the EU.

Comment: one consequence of the war of attrition in Ukraine is Russia losing its power projection abilities across Central Asia.

The EU has agreed to unlock €16 billion ($19 billion) in frozen funds to Hungary after a meeting with Peter Magyar, the country’s new prime minister. The bloc had withheld financing due to the rule-of-law violations of Viktor Orban’s government.

Comment: same situation happened in Poland in 2023. Once an EU-favored government was formed, all funds were unlocked, despite no changes in the rule-of-law or any other legislative change. Expect Magyar to run his government more in line with EU mandate, despite his right-wing agenda.

Business, Finance & Economics

A wide array of business news.

America’s PCE index rose by 3.8% y/y in April, as the Iran war pushed up food and energy costs. It’s the biggest increase since May 2023. Additionally, revised GDP figures showed that America’s economy grew by an annualized 1.6% in Q1.

Comment: and they say that the Strait of Hormuz is not important…

Huawei said it was 5 years away from producing 1.4 nanometer chips that would compete with TSMC.

Comment: amid sanctions and tariffs, China is trying to produce high-tech in-house. Recently China also replicated an ASML machine, crucial to chip production, shocking the world.

Anthropic secured $65 billion in funding at a valuation of $965 billion. It was valued at just $380 billion in February.

Comment: AI bubble continues to grow.

A New Glenn rocket made by Blue Origin exploded on its launchpad in Florida. The firm was testing the vessel’s engine; no one was harmed.

Comment: stuff like that happens with rockets.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’ll publish my deep dive on the post-war Middle East this week. It’s going to be a spicy one so make sure to subscribe!

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to another week! The weekend was busy. We had rumors of an imminent deal in Iran, only to see the change in rhetoric on Sunday. Now we are waiting for new updates. TradFi is bullish deal, but prediction markets tell a different story.

There were also developments in other parts of the world. From midterms to Xi-Putin meeting, the world is moving at a staggering pace. Get up to speed with it.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

It’s been quite a week in the US.

Thomas Massie lost his primary in Kentucky to a Trump-backed opponent. While in Texas, Trump-backed Paxton all but won his primary.

Comment: Trump is pushing candidates that would not directly oppose him. However, he should rather focus on not losing Congress.

Tulsi Gabbard resigned as America’s director of national intelligence, citing her husband’s diagnosis with a rare form of cancer. Rumors are she’s been increasingly sidelined.

Comment: for quite some time now Gabbard’s been rumored to leave the admin. She didn’t have any serious project or a role in the recent US actions on foreign soil. Polymarket consensus is that Aaron Lukas, the current principal deputy director of national intelligence is going to replace her.

The Trump admin announced a $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund to compensate people who claim they were wrongly targeted by the Justice Department. It was created as part of the settlement of a lawsuit the president brought against the IRS.

Comment: Trump’s allies are going to get paid, but there’s a coin-flip chance some of the payouts will be blocked.

America’s acting AG, Todd Blanche, said that the IRS is forever barred from continuing any existing audits against the Trump family or its businesses. This comes as part of the settlement that created the Anti-Weaponization Fund.

Comment: one of Trump’s main motivations for being POTUS is enriching his family. By all accounts, he’s doing great in that regard.

Trump delayed signing an executive order that would have given the admin more oversight of new AI models. The AI labs would be required to share the new models before their release.

Comment: supposedly it was David Sacks who saved the day for his tech bro friends. Ultimately the most important thing for the US government is to have unobstructed access to state of the art models and it is surely getting it.

American secret service agents returned fire on a gunman near the White House, killing the individual. The suspect is a 21-year-old who is known to the service. One bystander was injured in the process.

Comment: I think the assassins fail to realize that in case they succeed, it’s JD Vance taking the throne.

The Americas

It’s all Cuba.

America’s Justice Department indicted Raul Castro on several charges, including murder. He is accused of ordering two aircraft flown by a Miami-based exile group to be shot down in 1996, killing 4 people.

Comment: with no progress in diplomacy, strikes are increasingly looking like the most likely option.

Asia

Xi Jinping is busy meeting world leaders.

Xi said China’s relationship with Russia had reached the highest level of comprehensive strategic partnership after signing a series of trade and technology agreements with Putin in Beijing. The two leaders criticized America’s military actions, but failed to reach an agreement on a long touted gas pipeline between the 2 countries.

Comment: Russia and China continue to deepen their relationship. A bearish sign for US-Russia cooperation if you ask me, but lack of progress on the pipeline issue leaves a crack in the door.

Rubio held talks in Delhi with Modi and extended an invitation for India’s PM to visit the White House. Rubio indicated ahead of the meeting that America would sell India as much energy as they’ll buy.

Comment: the US is trying really hard to get India into its sphere of influence.

A train carrying Pakistani security personnel was bombed in Balochistan, killing at least 24 people and wounding around 70. The Baloch Liberation Army claimed responsibility for the attack.

Comment: there can be several explanations. Balochs might want to use the current crisis to dash for independence. They could have been hired. But by which side? They could be getting stronger by facilitating cross-border illegal oil trade since part of Balochistan lies in Iran. Surely an interesting development.

Middle East & Africa

We have yet another peace deal narrative.

The US and Iran were exchanging MOU proposals throughout the week. There was some escalatory rhetoric along the process, but we went into the weekend with rumors of an imminent deal (visible on the Polymarket chart).

Oil fell on the news. However, it soon became clear that there are still large gaps to bridge. As of today, we are awaiting new rumors. Despite differences, both sides claim to be deeply engaged in the process.

Some of the rumors were confirmed by Marco Rubio, giving a spark of confidence to the commentators.

Iran is generally highlighting wide gaps, while the US is claiming to be close to a deal.

Comment: Marco Rubio confirming some rumors gives me only a minor confidence boost. More of my thoughts in my recent deep dive:

The Knesset voted 110-0 to dissolve itself, beginning a countdown to election in September or October.

Comment: Netanyahu is currently tied with Naftali Bennett as favorites to be the next PM. Naftali Bennett is the former PM and the leader of the new opposition alliance, Together, aiming to win the election.

The WHO raised the threat from the Democratic Republic of Congo’s ebola outbreak from high to very high. The suspected death toll in central Africa has reached 177; a further 750 cases are suspected. Scientists are working on a vaccine for the disease, but it is not expected to be ready for several months.

Comment: it won’t be a pandemic, but it’s yet another crisis in Africa…

Europe

This week Ukraine and Russia exchanged multiple missiles, including on Kiev and Moscow. Outside of that:

The European Union provisionally agreed to remove import duties on some American goods to avoid an escalation of the trade negotiation with Trump. It was done as part of a trade deal agreed in July.

Comment: I don’t think anyone doubted that.

A Turkish court annulled the results of the Republican People’s Party congress in 2023, thus removing Ozgur Ozel as head of the main opposition party. The court reinstated the divisive Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who lost a presidential election in 2023 to Mr Erdogan, as CHP’s interim leader.

Comment: seems like Erdogan is tightening his grip on power.

Business, Finance & Economics

It’s an IPO frenzy.

Google said it will introduce Spark, a new AI agent to its search engine. The bot will draw on user data from products such as Gmail and Maps to carry out tasks. The tech giant also unveiled smart glasses, a decade after it shelved Google Glass. The specs, intended to rival Meta’s Ray-Bans, respond to voice commands and can take photos and videos.

Comment: AI is being more and more integrated into our daily lives.

SpaceX filed for an IPO and is expected to debut on NASDAQ in June. Traders are fairly certain it will be the biggest IPO to date:

Comment: xAI is part of SpaceX; Elon is looking to fund his AI lab to rival OpenAI.

Hearing the news, OpenAI is reportedly also preparing to file for an IPO in the coming weeks. The company is currently valued at $831.9 billion.

Comment: Sam Altman also needs massive amounts of capital to win the AI race.

Wrap up

That’s all for today! I’m working on a next deep dive, but I’ll let you know more about it once I’m closer to publishing it.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.