Welcome to the 20th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.

For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.

By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.

Summary

July was calm, finally…:

1. I started July with $22,060 in my portfolio.

2. Today (August 7th) my portfolio stands at $22,372.

3. There were no additional capital injections.

4. Total ROIC is 1.4% for the month and for 4.6% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.

5. All bankroll allocations are on the basis of starting bankroll.

The Good

July was another green month, marking a somewhat official ending of my choppy performance this year. My performance could have been better, but some my new positions repriced:

1. The Clarity Act market was priced mostly on hopes of passing it pre-recess. However, several developments pre-recess moved the timeline without impacting my FV assessment—I hold the position with some loss.

2. The Iran war markets—my thesis is playing out in real time and I fully expect to see big swings in the value of these positions.

Considering that I remained in the green with my two main theses going against me shows me that my work in previous months is paying off.

The Bad

I should have realized Congress can deal with government funding pre-recess and push the Clarity Act to September. However, my overall entry is quite decent and well below my FV assumption.

Other than that, I don’t have any particularly bad comments—July was a slow month and I didn’t trade a lot.

Bankroll Comments

I around 50% of my bankroll available for trading. I’ve been reshuffling my portfolio in the last few days. I expect to have below 30% portfolio available by September.

Wrap Up

That’s all for today. I have a Forecast Update in the works for tomorrow.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! We have a champion. After over a month of trading, multiple knockout duels and one very long weather-dominated endgame, BeefSlayer_ is the HIVE World Cup winner. And he took the trophy while sitting on a negative P&L!

Maskache put up a good fight, but this time it simply wasn’t enough. Let’s break down the last day, the final numbers, and what the whole tournament looked like from start to finish.

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trader of the Day

We know who’s the best now! Congrats BeefSlayer!

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Worst Trade of the Day

I’ll take it easy on Maskache today ;)

Finals

BeefSlayer_ vs Maskache

BeefSlayer_ and Maskache surprised us all with one thing—both traders ended the duel with a negative P&L, a first for both.

Maskache wasn’t able to make up a difference after a dismal first two days. He zeroed out in the end and lost it all trying to catch up with BeefSlayer. The latter must have felt very safe. He barely even traded and ended up with a negative $26 in P&L.

It could have been variance. It could have been fatigue. But we cannot deny that both traders deserved a place in the finals. Even the best traders have bad days. But they do have consistency:

Ultimately, Maskache made $6,831 while BeefSlayer is richer by $8,511. This is just from trading, not taking into account tournament prizes.

While the performance in the finals was choppy, you can clearly see that both traders more than 10x-ed their starting bankroll in a matter of weeks. This alone is an exceptional achievement.

Congratulations to BeefSlayer and Maskache! It was a pleasure to cover your duel.

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Wrap Up

That’s all! It was a pleasure to cover this tournament. I’ve seen incredible comeback stories and ultimate failures. I’ve tried to show you how different traders in the tournament approach risk and reward. And I tried to get the title myself, ending the tournament in the Round of 16.

Over month of fierce trading, covering new developments and watching the best prediction market traders trying to prove they deserve the title. I hope you had as much fun as I did.

Now, we’re back to regular programing. Until the next!

Stay strong and see you soon!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! We’ve made it to the last day of the HIVE World Cup, and the Finals have turned into a war of attrition rather than the shootout we were promised. BeefSlayer_ is clinging to a slim $16 in profit while Maskache is down $475 and neither trader produced a single call today worth handing an award to.

With less than 24 hours on the clock, let’s break down where the final duel stands and whether Maskache has any realistic path left to the trophy.

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Day

No trade deserved the best trade of the day title—you got to try harder guys!

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Worst Trade of the Day

No signle trade deserves the price.

Finals

BeefSlayer_ vs Maskache

Both BeefSlayer_ and Maskache have a rather disappointing performance. BeefSlayer_ has just $16 in profit, while Maskache is down $475.

It’s been a tough final for the best weather traders. The weather gods have been especially cruel to Maskache, who can’t seem to correctly predict a single market. BeefSlayer_, looking at Maskache’s performance, might just be taking it easy.

With less than 24 hours to go Maskache has only $25. Can he make up the difference? We saw plenty of surprises throughout the tournament, but this one just seems too impossible.

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Wrap Up

That’s all for today! Two days ago I said that Maskache still has a shot at the championship. Today I’m not so sure. Do you think he still has a chance? Let us know in the comments

See you tomorrow for the final HIVE World Cup Recap where we will see who’s the winner!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! The Final duel is here. After weeks of eliminations, the HIVE World Cup has come down to two weather traders: BeefSlayer_ and Maskache. Day one is in the books, and BeefSlayer_ has drawn first blood while Maskache is already fighting from behind.

Let’s break down where the Finals stand and whether Maskache can claw his way back.

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Day

No trade deserved the best trade of the day title—you got to try harder guys!

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Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day goes to Maskache:

He wrongly predicted the highest temperature in Seoul for $166 loss, giving BeefSlayer_ an early lead.

Finals

BeefSlayer_ vs Maskache

BeefSlayer_ has an early lead after a bad trade from Maskache. Both weather trader, however, got us used to much higher P&Ls. This contest is far from over and I expect Maskache to make up the difference soon.

Traders are competing for the main prize now and each trade counts. And with weather, we have dozens of markets daily making for a great show. Maskache can make up the loss in no time and be back in the game.

It’s the ultimate showdown between the top weather traders!

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Wrap Up

That’s all for today! The Finals opened with a stumble from Maskache, whose $166 miss on the highest temperature in Seoul handed BeefSlayer_ an early lead. But both of these traders have shown us far bigger P&Ls than this, and with dozens of weather markets resolving daily, there’s plenty of room for Maskache to erase the gap. This one is far from over.

Who’s your pick to be crowned HIVE World Cup Champion? My longtime favorite BeefSlayer_, or the resilient Maskache?

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! The wait is over. The Semifinals are done and we know our two finalists. Both duels delivered, and one of them came down to a single trade that flipped everything with less than 24 hours to go. Now we’re left with two weather traders standing: BeefSlayer_ and Maskache.

Let’s break down how we got here and who’s got the better shot at lifting the trophy.

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Semifinals

The best trade of the Semifinals goes to BeefSlayer_. He made $1,605 and then $869 the next day predicting the highest temperature in Seoul.

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Semifinals

The worst trade of the Semifinals goes to Joker_Poly:

He lost $2,075 wrongly predicting the outcome of an WNBA game and lost his duel with BeefSlayer_.

JokerPoly ends the tournament in the Semifinals with $2,919 in total profit. Congrats!

Semifinals

Joker_Poly vs BeefSlayer_

Joker_Poly went neck-to-neck with BeefSlayer_ until the last moment. Both traders had an amazing run, however JokerPoly lost it all on one WNBA prediction. That way we lost the last non-weather trader in the tournament.

BeefSlayer goes on the the Finals with $2,878 in profit. Congrats!

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Maskache vs WeatherOnly

WeatherOnly was in the lead at times, however he lacked some luck in the last day. After a series of bad weather predictions he lost almost the entire bankroll.

On the other hand, Maskache held steady and advanced to the Finals with $1,487 in profit. He will now match against BeefSlayer_ in the ultimate weather trader matchup.

Congrats!

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! The Semifinals gave us everything. BeefSlayer_ held his nerve after Joker_Poly threw it all away on one WNBA call, while Maskache stayed steady as WeatherOnly’s bankroll melted away. The last non-weather trader is out, and the Finals will show who’s the best out of the dominating caste of weather traders.

Who’s your pick to be crowned HIVE World Cup Champion? My longtime favorite BeefSlayer_, or the dominating Maskache?

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! We're back after a short break and the timing couldn't be better. The Quarterfinals were rather calm as many duels had resolved way ahead of the end of the trading window. However, the Semifinals are completely different—all four traders are neck-and-neck and both duels remain unresolved with only 36 hours left on the clock.

Let’s break down who's got the better shot at the Finals.

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to BeefSlayer_. He made $1,605 correctly predicting the highest temperature in Seoul. However, it wasn't enough to take the lead in his duel—I expect to see even better trades tomorrow!

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Day

No bad trades in the Semifinals.

Semifinals

Joker_Poly vs BeefSlayer_

Joker_Poly is the only non-weather trader left in the tournament. And surprisingly, he’s ahead of BeefSlayer_, who’s been my favorite to win for a long time now.

Both traders have more than quintupled their starting bankrolls in what looks to be the toughest duel to date! For now, Joker_Poly is slightly ahead after tailing BeefSlayer_’s weather picks and a correct prediction of the World Cup final.

With 36 hours left, anything can happen!

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Maskache vs WeatherOnly

The second Semifinals duel is focused solely on weather markets. WeatherOnly is currently in the lead, but Maskache is only $35 behind him. This one will keep us on the edge of our seats until the final minute.

If anything, this is a confirmation that only the best traders have a place in the top four!

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! With both duels this tight and only 36 hours left on the clock, the Finals are still anyone’s game. Joker_Poly is proving a non-weather trader can hang with the best, while WeatherOnly and Maskache are separated by only $35.

Who’s your pick to lift the trophy? Are you riding with my longtime favorite BeefSlayer_, or betting on the Joker to keep defying the odds? I’ll shout out the sharpest calls in tomorrow’s recap.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! With less than 24 hours to go, we still have one unresolved duel in the Quarterfinals. BeefSlayer_ still cannot feel safe against PMKFund, even though there’s over $600 difference between the two traders. If anything, this tournament has proved that no advantage is really safe as long as the other trader has some capital to trade.

Let’s see how is this duel going!

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to BeefSlayer_. He made $244 correctly predicting the highest temperature in Toronto.

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day goes to PMKFund.

He became active yesterday to catch up with BeefSlayer_, but this time he lost $204 on the World Cup mentions market. Now there’s over $600 between the two traders with less than 24 hours until the end of the Quarterfinals.

Quarterfinals

Joker_Poly vs thonka

Nothing new in this duel. Joker_Poly is now safe as thonka lost almost everything.

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Maskache vs Rex416

Same story as above. However, Maskache is still trading—it’s pure love of the game.

Raskell vs WeatherOnly

WeatherOnly also did a trade with Raskell out of the game. Weather traders are simply built different.

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PMKFund vs BeefSlayer_

In the last unresolved duel, BeefSlayer_ is trying to put as much distance as possible between himself and PMKFund. PMKFund became active yesterday, however with mixed results.

With less than 24 hours left the gap between the two traders is huge. Can PMKFund make it? Or is it the end of his strategic patience approach?

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! With 24 hours to go, one duel still remains unresolved—we expect a lot of action as both traders are trying to advance to the Semifinals.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! What a day it was in the Hive World Cup. Out of four duels in the Quarterfinals, only one is left—two additional traders zeroed out in the last 24 hours, leaving us with only one duel to follow.

This astonishing turn of events was possible thanks to Spain, which surprisingly beat France 2-0 in the World Cup Semifinals.

Let’s see who who is safe and bid farewell to some Hive World Cup legends!

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to Joker_Poly, who correctly predicted that Israel would enact military exemption for Yeshiva students. Buying Yes shares for only 7.6c allowed him to make $732 profit and secured a place in the Semifinals.

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day title goes to Raskell:

He lost $470 wrongly predicting the outcome of the France vs Spain World Cup game. This way he effectively lost the duel and finished his incredible run in the Quarterfinals with $3,672 in total profit.

Congrats!

Quarterfinals

Joker_Poly vs thonka

Joker_Poly is another trader who can feel safe. Not only did he win the best trade of the day, but also thonka lost another $220 on the France vs Spain World Cup game market.

This way, another duel is now effectively over. Congrats!

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Maskache vs Rex416

Despite securing a victory over Rex416, Maskache continues to trade weather, making $600 in just two days of trading.

Congrats!

Raskell vs WeatherOnly

WeatherOnly played it safe yesterday and now he can celebrate. Raskell lost it all on a wrong prediction, getting the worst trade of the day title as a parting gift.

Congrats!

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PMKFund vs BeefSlayer_

Thanks to the surprising result of the France vs Spain World Cup game, this is the last duel in which anything can change. BeefSlayer_ is currently in the lead with $212 in profit. He is trying to counter PMKFund’s strategic patience and avoid an outsized loss.

Now PMKFund will be forced to take on some risk. Will he manage to overtake BeefSlayer_? That’s the last question we need answered in these Quarterfinals.

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! We have only 48 hours left and our eyes are all on PMKFund and BeefSlayer_—who will take the final spot in the Semifinals and who will be forced to say goodbye?

Maybe we will now tomorrow.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! After only 24 hours of the Quarterfinals we already have one trader down. Elite 8 is not for the faint of heart—one mistake can make all the difference. That being said, the remaining three duels are as competitive as it can get. There is no clear favorite and we expect plenty to happen in the next 72 hours.

Let’s see who can already be safe!

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to Maskache, who made $362 predicting the highest temperature in Seoul to win his duel and advance to the Semifinals.

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day goes to Rex416:

He managed to lose it all by wrongly predicting a tennis match outcome for a $616 loss. Rex416 ends the tournament with over $4,000 in total profits, but a loss like that must hurt. Especially at the very beginning of the Quarterfinals.

Round of 16

Joker_Poly vs thonka

After beating me in the Round of 16, Joker_Poly continues to dominate. With $319 in profit he is well ahead of thonka, who after wrongly predicting an MLB game is dow $67.

However, this duel is far from over. Both traders have already proved that they can turn their fate and with three days left, anything can happen.

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Maskache vs Rex416

This cannot be said about this duel. Rex416 has lost it all wrongly predicting a tennis match and Maskache will now advance to the Semifinals!

What an incredible turn of events! Rex416 started off strong, but just one wrong prediction put him out of the race. Maskache will face either Raskell or WeatherOnly in three days. In the meantime he can rest and enjoy the weather.

Raskell vs WeatherOnly

WeatherOnly made $234 in the first day of trading and seems to feel safe enough to not trade now. However, Raskell has barely even started. Less than $5 in profit is not something he got us used to.

I fully expect Raskell to go big in the next 72 hours and give WeatherOnly a run for his money.

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PMKFund vs BeefSlayer_

A similar story is unfolding in the last duel. BeefSlayer_, a top weather trader, is up $151 after the first day, while PMKFund made $12 on a single trade and for now stays silent.

PMKFund is now famous for taking his time and waiting for his opponents to make mistakes. However, BeefSlayer_ has proved that he can be in the green every round. Is this the end of PMKFund and his strategic patience? Or will we see some revelations by the end of the Quarterfinals? Let us know in the comments!

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! The competition is fierce with one trader out after the first 24 hours. However, anything can happen in the remaining three duels.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! Welcome after the weekend. As we took the well-deserved time off, traders had the end of the Round of 16 and worked hard to advance to the quarterfinals.

Let’s see who made it!

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Round

The best trade of the round goes to WeatherOnly. He correctly predicted the highest temperature in Amsterdam for $445 in profit and the first place in the duel!

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Round

The worst trade of the round goes to aenews:

While he did predict correctly that Argentina will win with Switzerland, he traded the full-time game market vs team to advance market. The 90 minutes ended in a draw and aenews proceeded to lose $672 in the process.

This ended aenews’s run in the tournament, which he ends with $812 total profit + winnings from advancing to the top 16.

Round of 16

Joker_Poly vs PROPHET

Joker_Poly didn’t trust me when I said that I aim to trade in the last day and he was good for it. Ultimately, I lacked the time to properly focus on the Round of 16 and Joker_Poly advanced to the Quarterfinals with $207 in profit.

Congrats!

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Maskache vs ClydeCash

Maskache won the duel well in advance as ClydeCash zeroed out trying to catch up with this pro weather trader.

Congrats!

Raskell vs OnlyLuckNoBrain

The last day of trading was not so lucky for OnlyLuckNoBrain. After a great run, he finally ended his supply of luck and ended up $118 in the red. Raskell saw that early and decided to not risk anything anymore with $295 in profit.

Now Raskell is in, trying to beat weather traders. Congrats!

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HondaCivic vs PMKFund

PMKFund’s strategic patience continues to pay off. He barely traded against the well-known weather trader HondaCivic. However, HondaCivic finally had a bad streak after making absurd amount of profit in the previous rounds.

This time he ultimately erased his bankroll and PMKFund can continue implementing his strategy in the Quarterfinals. Congrats!

BeefSlayer_ vs whiggeries

whiggeries had no chance against the top weather trader, BeefSlayer_. The latter made $1,456, more than $1,000 more than the former, guaranteeing himself a place in the Quarterfinals.

With HondaCivic and 0X357 gone, BeefSlayer_ and Maskache are my favorites to iwn the whole tournament.

Congrats and godspeed!

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bernardbulletin vs WeatherOnly

bernardbulletin had an incredible run, but ultimately he needed to admit that this tournament belongs to the weather traders. WeatherOnly really took off in the last day of trading, making $1,103 vs $634 by bernardbulletin.

Congrats to WeatherOnly!

aenews vs Rex416

aenews tried his best, but Rex416 was simply too good. In the end, aenews tried to go all in, but it backfired. Rex won the whole round with $1,664 in profit.

In an absolutely killer performance, Rex416 advances to the Quarterfinals—congrats!

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Fuentes 99 vs thonka

Fuentes99 and thonka went head-to-head for majority of the Round of 16. However, at the very end Fuentes99 tried to make it big and failed, erasing majority of his bankroll in the process.

With $465 in profit, thonka advanced to the quarterfinals. Congrats!

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! Only eight best traders are left now. Quarterfinals are going to be a real show of skill as the elite 8 competes for the spots in the Semifinals.

Did your favorite make it? Let us know in the comments.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! It’s been a busy day. Two traders had a string of bad luck and ended up with most of their bankroll deleted. But the other six duels are still on and with 36 hours left anything can happen!

Let’s see who has it easy now and who still needs to work to advance to the Quarterfinals!

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to BeefSlayer_, who made over $350 predicting the lowest temperature in Miami. He has more than tripled his bankroll now and tops the global leaderboard in the Round of 16.

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Day

HondaCivic gets the worst trade of the day second day in the row!

In the last 24 hours we have seen one bad decision after another from this weather trader. He had his biggest loss to date yesterday, losing $180 by wrongly predicting the highest temperature in London. But he also managed to add to it other losses, including wrongly predicting the Spain vs Belgium World Cup game outcome.

His chances to qualify to the Quarterfinals are slim now, but he already made almost $2,000 in the competition, one of the highest P&Ls we’ve seen.

Round of 16

Joker_Poly vs PROPHET

Despite promising, I didn’t find time to trade yesterday and now I have $238 to make before I’m even with Joker_Poly. He is slowly building his P&L and with only 36 hours left, I might need to risk a lot to try and get back in the game.

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Maskache vs ClydeCash

Maskache had a rather rough day on the weather market, but his opponet had it even worse. ClydeCash lost it all on the combination of bad World Cup predicting and worse Elon tweet forecasting.

Maskache has effectively secured his place in the Quarterfinals—congrats!

Raskell vs OnlyLuckNoBrain

OnlyLuckNoBrain and Raskell are playing small stakes. Neither trader breached $100 in profit, or in loss. This is quite surprising as Raskell made us used to him making mutiples of his bankroll in a matter of days.

With 36 hours to go it is impossible to call the duel, but we are pretty sure that we will have plenty of wild trades to report tomorrow.

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HondaCivic vs PMKFund

After an amazing run in this tournament, the weather gods have ultimately turned away from HondaCivic. He continued his losing streak into the night to end up with just $70 in his bankroll.

PMKFund’s patience definitely paid off as he is now looking to advance to the Quarterfinals without making any trade in the Round of 16. However, with weather traders it’s never safe to call it until the time is up. HondaCivic might still make a comeback.

BeefSlayer_ vs whiggeries

whiggeries is trying to prove that weather traders have a match in this tournament, but BeefSlayer_ is simply trading on another level. With $1,228 in profit he is on the top of the global leaderboard.

whiggeries has a huge gap to bridge now, but with $455 in profit his performance is top notch anyway. There can only be 1 winner in this tournament.

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bernardbulletin vs WeatherOnly

bernardbulletin has barely clung to his lead as WeatherOnly is trying his best to advance to the Quarterfinals. Both traders have exchanged lead a couple of times already and the last 36 hours are bound to be extremely interesting in this duel.

aenews vs Rex416

aenews has not faced a trader like Rex416 yet in the Hive World Cup. Usually a couple hundred dollars in profit was enough to advance to the next round. This time, however, Rex416 is showing him how it’s done with a cool $804 in profit.

Can aenews beat that? We’ll see if he has the risk appetite to go in big.

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Fuentes 99 vs thonka

Both Fuentes99 and thonka are trading sports markets, but it’s thonka who has the upper hand. Fuentes99 focuses on the World Cup, while thonka is all in on the MLB. With one World Cup game left till the end of the Round fo 16, Fuentes99 must make it big or go home.

We’ll see if he can make it, but we are sure he will try!

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! With 36 hours left, 2 out of 8 duels seem to be already resolved. But overall, traders are much closer to each other than before. It’s clear that the level of the competition is extremely high.

Who’s you favorite now? Let us know in the comments!

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! It’s been 36 hours since the Round of 16 started and we already have some traders who managed to double their bankroll. Additionally, no trader is down a lot, which made it hard to choose the worst trade of the day!

With only the top 16 traders left the level of competition has risen substantially. And surprisingly, weather traders do not have it so easy as they compete with some of the absolute best political and sports traders.

Let’s see who managed to get an early lead!

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to bernardbulletin, who correctly predicted that Graham Platner would drop out of the Maine election for $300 profit early in the duel. Congrats!

Thanks to that, he now has a chance to beat WeatherOnly, one of the weather traders dominating the tournament.

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Worst Trade of the Day

With only the top 16 traders left, bad trades happen less often. However, we still do see some of them—short-term form of the tournament forces traders to take more risk sometimes. Today, it’s HondaCivic who ended up on the wrong side of variance:

He lost $84 wrongly predicting the highest temperature in the NYC. This is probably the best of the worst trades to date, but hey, someone needed to get this title ;)

Round of 32

Joker_Poly vs PROPHET

Joker_Poly took an early lead in our duel. While I’ve been inactive, Joker_Poly made $127 trading esports and box office markets. I definitely need to start trading, otherwise the difference will grow too large by tomorrow!

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Maskache vs ClydeCash

Maskache continues to prove that he is one of the best traders in the tournament. After only 36 hours, he managed to make $631 trading weather markets. ClydeCash is trying to give him a good run for his money. However, $115 in profit is not enough against this weather trader.

We do expect further action in this duel as ClydeCash has repeatedly shown that he is not afraid to go big.

Raskell vs OnlyLuckNoBrain

OnlyLuckNoBrain had a tough start. The weather gods were not kind to him and they sit on $106 loss after 36 hours of the Round of 16. Raskell is also trying out weather markets, along with his usual trades on the World Cup.

Raskell is in a slight lead with $52 in profit. However, we know that both traders can do a lot better and we expect more action in the next 2.5 days.

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HondaCivic vs PMKFund

PMKFund continues his strategy of patience. With no trade done, he currently leads as HondaCivic had a rather rough day on weather markets. With $123 loss he has little time to build an advantage over the unpredictable PMKFund.

BeefSlayer_ vs whiggeries

whiggeries is trying his best trading political markets against one of the top weather traders, BeefSlayer_. whiggeries managed to make $373, however it was not enough.

BeefSlayer_ tops the global leaderboard this round with $757 profit already! 2.5 days remain to see if there’s any stopping to the absolutely dominating weather traders.

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bernardbulletin vs WeatherOnly

bernardbulletin is also not giving up against another weather trader. He made $384 trading Graham Platner markets for a slight lead over WeatherOnly.

With only $73 between the two traders it shapes up to be one of the most competitive duels of this round.

aenews vs Rex416

Rex416 does not feel intimidated by trading agains tone of the Polymarket OGs, aenews. With $517 in profit from a wide variety of markets, they are well ahead of aenews, who managed to make $121 in 36 hours.

Duels last only four days, making each small decision count and Rex416 proves that he can make tough decisions under pressure.

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Fuentes 99 vs thonka

Fuentes99 is off to a bad start. The single trade he made backfired and now he needs to make up $87 just to break even. In the meantime, thonka is trading sports, and despite some losses, he is $64 in the green.

However, we know that Fuentes99 is not afraid to go big. This lead is too little to call the race, especially with 2.5 days left.

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! The Round of 16 is off to a rather slow start. However, we expect it to fire up today as traders will try to make big moves to lock in their current advantage. Tomorrow’s recap will show who managed to do that and who needs to fight till the last minute.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! The last 24 hours of the Round of 32 were extremely volatile. Traders tried their best to change their fate and advance to the Round of 16. Some succeeded, while others erased their bankroll in the process.

This trading frenzy coincided with an astonishing dispute on Cristiano Ronaldo to cry during World Cup market, which heavily impacted some of the duels.

Let’s see who made it to the top 16!

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day (and round!) goes to PMKFund, who managed to win his duel in the last hours of trading.

Amazing, if a bit lucky performance. Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day (and the round!) goes to CoffeLover_pm:

After a great run against Raskell he resorted to full-porting World Cup markets in order to get an advantage. In the beginning it went well, ultimately though it was too much risk.

Congrats for the great overall performance!

Round of 32

Mirza vs PROPHET

This duel was settled yesterday after Mirza lost it all wrongly predicting the outcome of the US vs Belgium World Cup game. I made a small trade on the Argentina vs Egypt game, which almost went against me, but ultimately I end the round with a small profit of $6.

In the next round I will trade against Joker_Poly in what shapes up to be my toughest challenge so far.

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Maskache vs Mosesfan

Maskache enjoyed a huge lead a took it easy in the last day of trading. Mosesfan tried their best, but ultimately he fell short and changed his nick to Maskachefan in tribute to the winner of the duel.

Now Maskache will face ClydeCash in the Round of 16—congrats!.

Raskell vs CoffeeLover_pm

CoffeLover_pm and Raskell were going head-to-head on the last 24 hours of trading. Both traders had over $1,000 in profit making it the most competitive duel in the Round of 32.

Ultimately, CoffeLover_pm took too much risk and ended up $465 in the red. Raskell will now face OnlyLuckNoBrain in the Round of 16. Congrats!

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0X357 vs PMKFund

In a shocking turn of events, 0X357, who’s been consistently at the top of the global leaderboard all throughout the tournament has been eliminated by PMKFund.

PMKFund went all in on the Ronaldo to cry during the World Cup market on Yes just before the clarification, netting $1,558. 0X357 tried to make up the difference, however the weather gods were not kind to him today.

One of my favorites to win the tournament is out and PMKFund will trade against HondaCivic in the Round of 16. Congrats!

BeefSlayer_ vs 0xd1namit

0xd1namit conceded the duel yesterday and BeefSlayer_ advances to the Round of 16 with a respectable $876 profit.

He will trade against whiggeries now to advance to the quarterfinals. Congrats!

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bernardbulletin vs Splunksy

Some traders just want it too much sometimes. It was brought to my attention that Splunksy cheated in the last day of trading by setting up another wallet and trading against himself to get an advantage.

I am told that Splunksy will be disqualified from the tournament and bernardbulletin will advance to the Round of 16.

Congrats to bernardbulletin, who will now face WeatherOnly in the Round of 16!

aenews vs wisechinamann

This duel kept us on the edge of our seats till the last minute. With less than an hour to go, wisechinamann held a slight lead over aenews after correctly predicting the Ronald market. However, aenews didn’t give up and after successfully trading some MLB markets he ended up $7 ahead of wisechinamann for the win.

What a duel! Now aenews will face Rex416 in the Round of 16. Congrats!

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Fuentes 99 vs xeny-

After three days of inactivity, xeny- decided to fight for his place in the Round of 16. However, the esports and MLB predictions didn’t go his way and he ended up $378 in the red

Fuentes99, despite losing part of his profits yesterday, advanced to the Round of 16 and will trade against thonka. Congrats!

sonix vs thonka

This duel ended yesterday after sonix lost it all on the US vs Belgium World Cup game.

thonka advanced to the Round of 16. Congrats!

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Rex416 vs attenonthephone

atteonthephone and Rex416 also kept us on the edge of our seats. The former must have went to sleep thinking $1,670 in profit is enough to qualify. However, Rex416 didn’t give up and ended up making $2,319 on a mix of esports, World Cup and MLB markets.

Congrats!

WeatherOnly vs green

Weather traders are simply too good. green, after seeing he is matched against WeatherOnly, who made over $400 in the first day, gave up:

I don’t blame him. The short-term format of the tournament really favors weather traders, who seem to be able to print astonishing amount of money on a daily basis

Congrats to WeatherOnly, maybe he will find his equal in bernardbulletin!

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Kween vs whiggeries

Kween is another trader who will wake up to a bad surprise. This weather trader thought nothing can change the outcome. However, whiggeries didn’t want to give up and full-ported the Ronaldo to cry market for $972 profit.

Sometimes you just need a bit of luck. Congrats to whiggeries!

n0rulesnvr vs HondaCivic

n0rulesnvr put up a good fight, but it was no mach for the top weather trader HondaCivic. This duel ended yesterday, after n0rulesnvr conceded the fight.

Congrats to HondaCivic!

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PeterParker3Hive vs OnlyLuckNoBrain

This is the only duel that ended with both traders being in the red! PeterParker3Hive had no chance to qualify agains tour lucky trader after losing the entire bankroll. But OnlyLuckNoBrain did trade some and managed to lose less than $1 to give us this shocking and funny outcome.

Congrats!

Arrth vs ClydeCash

ClydeCash only increased his lead in the last day of trading. Arrth also traded some, but ultimately he was no match for the versatile ClydeCash.

Congrats!

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strider_pm vs Joker_Poly

In the final duel we also saw some last minute action. After three days of inactivity, strider_pm tried his luck trading weather and World Cup markets. He made $239, but it was not enough to beat Joker_Poly.

Our winner traded the same mix of markets, but was simply better, thanks to his performance in the days before. Congrats!

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! The Round of 16 starts in 11 hours, giving us little time to rest. But with the top 16 left, the intensity must go up. Are you ready for the final stratch?

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! It’s been a crazy day. Since yesterday a lot of traders have made some risky trades. With less than two days left, they must have felt that it is the last moment to make it big.

Some have managed to absolutely kill it, while others lost it all in the process. If I had to point to one market that made the most difference, it’s the US vs Belgium World Cup game. After an incredible run by America, losing 4-1 to Belgium came as a shock, not only for the players, but also for traders.

With 24 hours left let’s see who made it big!

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day title goes to Maskache. He made $1,276 predicting the highest temperature in Shenzhen. Only wether traders can make so much in such a short time.

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day title goes to Mirza:

Despite enjoying a $311 lead over his opponent, this trader decided to risk it all on the US vs Belgium World Cup game and is left with nothing as a result.

While he needs to bid farewell to the tournament, he is leaving with a respectable $500 in profit from the tournament. Congrats!

Round of 32

Mirza vs PROPHET

In a surprising turn of events, Mirza lost his lead and is now $493 in the red, effectively losing his entire bankroll! While I’ve been inactive, Mirza traded the US vs Belgium World Cup game, predicting that the US will win.

While I admire the confidence, Belgium bested the host and with 24 hours of trading left, I’m in the lead!

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Maskache vs Mosesfan

Maskache had a killer day on prediction markets. He went as high as $3,000 in profit, to finally settle at $1,316. Weather trading, while volatile, is an extremely lucrative strategy for some of the traders we see in the tournament.

Mosesfan, with no edge in weather markets, can do little to achieve such a great result. With a very respectable $158 in profit from just three days of trading, he will need to wave goodbye to the tournament soon.

Raskell vs CoffeeLover_pm

CoffeLover_pm and Raskell have both been trading World Cup markets to try and get an advantage. Both ended up going head to head for majority of the time, more than tripling their starting bankroll in the process. In the last couple of hours, however, CoffeLover_pm fell behind Raskell, who now has a staggering $1,683 in profit to top the global leaderboard.

It’s a truly astonishing performance from both traders. It feels like a foretaste of the final! It will be a shame to bid farewell to either one of them.

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0X357 vs PMKFund

0X357, contrary to Mirza from the first duel, knew when to take it easy. After making $1,234 predicting weather across the world, he stopped trading as PMKFund is inactive and extremely unlikely to make up the difference.

With 24 hours to go some of the duels already have a clear winner.

BeefSlayer_ vs 0xd1namit

BeefSlayer_ is another weather trader who has absolutely dominated the tournament. 0xd1namit had a great run, and there’s probably nothing more that I can say that he hasn’t said himself:

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bernardbulletin vs Splunksy

Bernardbulletin is proving that he is a versatile trader. After a dismal start, bernardbulletin, lacking his favorite election markets, has focused on mention markets. He managed to reverse his fortune and doubled the starting bankroll in the process.

Splunksy probably thought that $245 profit is enough to cruise to the Round of 16. After all, he’s been inactive since yesterday. Now, however, he will need to turn back to weather markets in hopes he can make enough to overtake bernardbulletin.

aenews vs wisechinamann

After meeting on the opposite side of one trade, wisechinamann opted for patience as he had over $200 lead over aenews. However, the OG trader managed to cut the lead down to $60.

This is a gap that can be easily closed. The last 24 hours will be crucial for this duel and we will only know the winner once the round ends.

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Fuentes 99 vs xeny-

Both xeny- and Fuentes99 are inactive after the latter made $193 in the first day. It looks like xeny- has just forfeited the duel, but who knows, maybe the last 24 hours will bring us a surprise.

sonix vs thonka

sonix is the second trader today to have lost it all on the US vs Belgium World Cup game. Traders put the US as a slight favorite, while in the end Belgium won 4-1, absolutely dominating the game.

In the meantime, thonka is slowly building their P&L and can be sure now to advance to the Round of 16.

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Rex416 vs attenonthephone

atteonthephone and Rex416 were very close to each other yesterday. However, the weather gods were not kind to atteonthephone as he has lost $850 since the last recap.

It’s one of few duels in which a weather trader got bested.

WeatherOnly vs green

green remains inactive, thus WeatherOnly is taking it easy and securing his place in the Round of 16.

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Kween vs whiggeries

Same can be said about this duel. While whiggeries is active, his $25 in profit is well short of Kween, another weather trader with $461 in profit.

I see very little chance of change here.

n0rulesnvr vs HondaCivic

n0rulesnvr is doing his best, but being matched against a top weather trader like HondaCivic is tough:

Based on this X post we can expect HondaCivic to advance to the Round of 16. However, n0rulesnvr had a great run in this tournament. Congrats!

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PeterParker3Hive vs OnlyLuckNoBrain

This duel has concluded yesterday after PeterParker3Hive lost it all. OnlyLuckNoBrain has an extended break ahead of the Round of 16.

Arrth vs ClydeCash

ClydeCash, after a dismal performance in Week 3, is back on the top. With $219 in profit from trading World Cup markets he’s well ahead of Arrth.

Arrth is trying his luck on various markets, but it seems that the gap might be too wide to bridge.

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strider_pm vs Joker_Poly

Situation remains unchanged in the last duel. I think we can say that it’s Joker_Poly who will advance to the Round of 16 as strider_pm remains inactive and $436 behind Joker_Poly.

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! With 24 hours to go some duels seem to have already resolved. With such a fast pace of the tournament it’s only logical that some traders are willing to risk it all to advance to the next stage.

However, some matchups are still going head to head so see you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! It’s been a wild day. Some traders managed to almost quadruple their bankroll, while others lost it all and are out of the tournament! We now have some clear favorites as beyond the matchups, traders are on a mission to prove they are the best every single day.

Let’s see who can already be sure to advance to the next stage!

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Day

0X357 has absolutely dominated the day. Despite being matched against an inactive trader, they made $1,482 predicting the highest temperature in the NYC and are now the best out of 32 traders.

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day goes to PeterParker3Hive.

They lost $569 wrongly predicting the outcome of Mexico vs England World Cup game and are now effectively out of the tournament. However, they’ve made $1,483 overall in the tournament so all in all they had a great run!

Round of 32

Mirza vs PROPHET

Mirza feels safe with $311 profit as I’m yet to make any trade. However, I do plan on trading today to give Mirza a run for their money.

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Maskache vs Mosesfan

After a mediocre day, Maskache showed us why they were placed second overall in the Group Stage. With $296 profit trading weather markets, they are now well ahead of Mosesfan who didn’t really trade in the last 24 hours and sits on $46 profit.

Mosesfan will have a tough job now trying to catch up.

Raskell vs CoffeeLover_pm

CoffeLover_pm and Raskell are going head to head. Both have almost tripled their bankroll and have only $42 between them. And both have made over $470 correctly predicting the outcome of the Mexico vs England World Cup game.

This duel is the most exciting in the Round of 32 giving us a foretaste of the final!

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0X357 vs PMKFund

After a bad day, 0X357 is on an absolute roll. They don’t seem to care that PMKFund is inactive. With $1,236 they have more than tripled the starting bankroll and showed us that they belong in the Round of 16.

A trading performance worthy of the final for this weather trader!

BeefSlayer_ vs 0xd1namit

BeefSlayer_, another weather trader, is also on a tear. With $926 in profit they are absolutely dominating 0xd1namit who has only $31 in profit.

Will 0xd1namit try to get lucky in the last two days? Or is BeefSlayer_’s performance just too good to try and catch up? We’ll see by tomorrow.

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bernardbulletin vs Splunksy

Bernardbulletin is having a rough couple of days. After an unlucky start, they are now $66 in the red. With the absence of election markets they are trying their best trading mentions.

However, Splunksy, trading a mix of weather and sports markets, is getting well ahead. With $258 in profit they should get more comfortable in the lead by the hour. That being said, this profit can be too little to advance past the Round of 16.

aenews vs wisechinamann

Aenews and wisechinamann found themselves on the opposite sides of the same market! The former was on Yes on the White House to call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 4th, while the latter was on No as their main positions yesterday.

wisechinamann proved their wisdom and now enjoys a $264 lead over aenews.

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Fuentes 99 vs xeny-

Since xeny- is not active, Fuentes99 is taking it easy after making $193 in the first day. Is it xeny-’s strategy t wait till the last minute? We’ll see.

sonix vs thonka

After a rough start, thonka is doing their best to catch up with sonix, who thought they can take it easy after the first day. Now, both traders are within a $100 of each other.

Today will show if thonka has the skill to catch up and give sonix a run for their money.

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Rex416 vs attenonthephone

After a slow start, atteonthephone has had a killer day and made $633 trading weather markets. However, it was not enough to catch up with Rex416.

Rex416 had a killer day trading World Cup markets and now has $1,021 in profit, trailing only 0X357 for the overall top spot.

WeatherOnly vs green

While green remains inactive, WeatherOnly is yet another weather trader with an absolutely outrageous P&L. In just two days of trading they’ve managed to almost double the starting bankroll.

At this point I’m almost sure it will be a weather trader who wins the tournament.

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Kween vs whiggeries

Kween continues the tradition of weather traders absolutely mogging everyone else. Up $479, they can be almost sure of victory as whiggeries only has $61 profit.

n0rulesnvr vs HondaCivic

n0rulesnvr is trying their best being matched against a weather trader. However, in this tournament, a normally very respectable 30% profit in two days, is simply not enough.

HondaCivic is far from being the most profitable weather trader in this round. But they still have $408 in profit, almost doubling the starting bankroll. This tournament is extremely competitive and matchups like that show it best.

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PeterParker3Hive vs OnlyLuckNoBrain

After two days of trading, we have our first sure case. PeterParker3Hive lost it all trading Mexico vs England World Cup game markets.

OnlyLuckNoBrain can now be sure to advance to the Round of 16 with a respectable profit of $146. This trader continues to manifest reality through their nickname and I find it quite amusing!

Arrth vs ClydeCash

This is the least exciting matchup of the Round of 32. Both traders are barely in the double digits when it comes to profit. Arrth is up only $14, while ClydeCash did a small round trip and sits on $32 profit.

We do hope to see more action here as both traders are looking to qualify to the Round of 16.

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strider_pm vs Joker_Poly

Joker_Poly is making sure that strider_pm won’t be able to catch up. With $436 profit vs an inactive trader, they have all but ensured their place in the Round of 16.

Wrap Up

That’s all for today! Currently my favorite to win the tournament is 0X357, who every single day proves that they are one of the best traders out there. Who’s your pick for the winner? Let us know in the coments.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! The first 24 hours of the Knockout Stage are behind us. While it was the 4th of July, many traders took the time to trade and try to get a lead over their opponents.

In some cases it worked out great. In others, not so much.

Let’s see who made it!

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Quick Rules Summary

Finalists go 1v1, seeded by group score. Both traders reset to $500 for a short head-to-head window; whoever makes more profit advances. Single elimination, until one champion is left.

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Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to CoffeeLover_pm. They made $331 correctly predicting the outcome of the Morocco vs Canada World Cup game for a $135 lead in their 1v1.

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day title belongs to 0X357:

This otherwise great trader had a rough day on weather markets, where they lost $196 wrongly predicting the highest temperature in the NYC.

However, with 3 days left we do hope to see them redeem theselves!

Round of 32

Mirza vs PROPHET

Mirza placed first in their group in each of three weeks of the Group Stage. Now they continue their excellent performance. They made $317 correctly predicting Morocco vs Canada World Cup game and enjoy a massive lead.

I’ve taken a day off from trading, but starting today I’m giving Mirza a run for their money. I’ll have to take some risks though to top $311 in profit.

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Maskache vs Mosesfan

Maskache had a volatile day. Weather gods were not kind today, but they ended up with $16 in profit for the first place (for now).

Mosesfan also had a slow day with only $8 in profit. We expect both traders to have a better day today.

Raskell vs CoffeeLover_pm

Both traders had an impressive day. CoffeLover_pm is in the lead now after correctly predicting the outcome of Morroco vs Canada World Cup game for $366 in profit.

Raskell is just behind them with $231 in profit trading World Cup and esports markets. This 1v1 is shaping up to be extremely competitive.

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0X357 vs PMKFund

PMKFund’s strategy is patience. With no trades in the last 24 hours, they were hoping 0X357 makes a mistake. And they did.

The weather gods were not kind and 0X357 now sits on a $245 loss. However, we’ve already seen this trader making a big comeback. Can they make it back? With three days left and plenty of weather markets anything is possible.

BeefSlayer_ vs 0xd1namit

Another duel with weather trader. This time, BeefSlayer_ proved why weather traders are a force to reckon with. With $114 in profit, they are well ahead of 0xd1namit.

However, 0xd1namit still had a respectable day with $31 in profit trading World Cup markets. This 1v1 is far from over.

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bernardbulletin vs Splunksy

Bernardbulletin had a rough start to the Knockout Stage. With no political markets in sight, they traded mentions and ultimately managed to cut the losses down to 7$.

Splunksy, on the other hand, has a respectable profit of $55 trading weather markets. Looking at both traders, this duel is just getting started.

aenews vs wisechinamann

Here both traders are yet to do a single trade. Aenews had to close some positions for a slight loss, thus his negative P&L.

We are waiting for some action from wisechinamann and aenews!

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Fuentes 99 vs xeny-

Fuentes99 is off to a great start predicting World Cup games. With $193 in profit, they are well ahead of xeny-, who is yet to make a single trade.

Can they catch up? With 3 days left anything is possible.

sonix vs thonka

Sonix has a similar strategy to Fuentes99. After a successful day predicting World Cup games, they are $199 up.

Thonka had a worse start, but since then they are making it up. With $58 in the red, they will now have to assume more risk to catch up with sonix.

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Rex416 vs attenonthephone

In a shocking turn of events, an esports trader is currently winning with a weather trader. Rex416 had a great day and is now sitting on $439 in profit.

In the meantime, atteonthephone had a slow day and has only $7 in profit. However, there are plenty of weather markets every day and we’re sure they will be back in the game in no time.

WeatherOnly vs green

It’s a rather uneventful duel now. Only WeatherOnly made some trades and is up $85 while green took the Saturday off.

We hope to see more action today!

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Kween vs whiggeries

It’s another 1v1 in which one trader is well ahead while the other has barley traded. We understand that it was 4th of July, but we do hope to see more action from whiggeries starting today.

For now Kween is leading with $285 in profit trading weather markets.

n0rulesnvr vs HondaCivic

N0rulesnvr hoped they wouldn’t be matched against a weather trader. Tough luck!

HondaCivic, one of the most popular weather traders on X is not giving them any favors. With $55 in profit after 24 hours of trading, they are well ahead of n0rulesnvr, who might be too intimidated to start trading.

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PeterParker3Hive vs OnlyLuckNoBrain

OnlyLuckNoBrain had it easy in the Group Stage. However, they are proving now that it is no accident they have qualified to the Knockout Stage. With $111 in profit from trading weather markets, they are not going to give up easily.

PeterParker3Hive is just behind them with $68 in profit after trading Taylor Swift wedding markets. With 3 days left, anything can happen in this 1v1.

Arrth vs ClydeCash

While Arrth is taking it slow with only $1 in profit, ClydeCash is proving to us that their performance in Week 3 (where they won the worst trade of the week title!) was just an accident.

With a respectable $68 in profit from trading weather markets, they are looking to redeem themselves.

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strider_pm vs Joker_Poly

The last duel is rather uneventful. strider_pm has not made any trade yet, while Joker_Poly is up $114 for a safe lead.

We hope to see more action here tomorrow.

Wrap Up

It’s been a slow start for some, but we already see some traders trying to prove that they belong in the top 16. With 4th of July celebrations over now, we can expect more traders to join in the action and try to advance to the next stage.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! It’s the end of the Group Stage. After extremely competitive three weeks of trading, we now have our 32 traders, the best of the best. Starting tomorrow, they will compete head-to-head to advance to the Round of 16.

Let’s see who made it and who had to wave the tournament goodbye!

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Quick Rules Summary

Traders are now competing in the group phase, in three weekly round. They start every round with a fresh $500 and are ranked against their group by that round's profit. Where they finish earns points — top 10 score, everyone else gets 0.

After 3 weeks, top two traders out of each group (and eight best traders from the third place) advance to knockouts.

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Best Trade of the Week

The best trade of the week goes to UnyieldingGrit. This trader made $1,520 correctly predicting the exact score in Portugal vs Croatia World Cup game and made the most profit in Week 3. Despite not making it to the Knockout Stage, this trader is definitely walking out of the competition happy.

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Week

The worst trade of the week goes to ClydeCash:

This trader erased their entire bankroll in the very beginning of the week, wrongly predicting the number of Elon Musk’s tweets. Despite that, they managed to qualify to the Knockout Stage!

Congrats!

Group Standings

Group A

The last day of trading was a calm one for Group A. The top three remained the same and all of them qualified to the Knockout Stage:

1. 0X357 has absolutely dominated Group A and managed to get 40 points in three weeks of trading. They made over $1,905 this week alone, making them one of the favorites to win the tournament.

2. Joker_Poly is the only non-weather trader from Group A to qualify to the knockout stage. With 32 points over three weeks, they had an impressive run predicting politics, mentions and sports.

3. HondCivic made it to the Knockout Stage as their steady performance predicting weather put them in the top 3 of the best 3rd places.

Group A has been one of the most competitive groups, but these three have absolutely dominated over the last three weeks. Congrats!

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Group B

After a tense three weeks, Group B has only two traders advancing to the Knockout Stage:

1. Raskell, aka Airdropper2, made it out as one of the favorites to win the tournament. With 42 points (45 being the maximum), they have proved that predicting runs in their veins.

2. Mosesfan is living up to the legend. After a weak start, they’ve managed to win the Week 3 and advance to the Knockout stage thanks to predicting esports games.

Congrats!

Group C

Group C has been extremely volatile. Five traders had over 20 points, but only three of them managed to qualify to the Knockout Stage:

1. ClydeCash has dominated the group in the first two weeks. So much so, that even losing their entire bankroll at the beginning of Week 3 didn’t stop them from having the most points.

2. whiggeries took it easy this week, but placing 4th was enough to get 31 points and make the cut.

3. wisechinamann did in fact manage to stay at the top of the Group C in Week 3 and qualify from the third place. I guess there’s a reason they’re called wise.

And a consolation prize should go to PityokH, who did manage to redeem themselves after getting the worst trade of the day title. Congrats nonetheless!

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Group D

Group D saw some last minute action and ended up with three traders making the cut:

1. Bernardbulletin had the most stable performance throughout the course of the Group Stage. With 39 points they are at the top of the global leaderboard. However, we will see how they’ll do in the Knockout Stage as there are no more primaries to trade.

2. green took it easy after great two weeks. Despite being in the red this week, they were safe to advance with 31 points.

3. PROPHET made a last minute effort to qualify after trading only sporadically throughout the first 2 weeks. A parley on the last night matches put them at the top of the leaderboard. With 27 points, he is just above the threshold to advance.

Congrats!

I do hope though that I’m not matched against a weather trader in the Round of 32 (sic!).

Group E

In Group E, n0rulesnvr made a last minute appearance to collect easy points and deliver a small upset to Pristine10, who barely missed the cut. That we we have only two traders advancing to the Knockout Stage:

1. Mirza has proved that they have no match in Group E. Placing 1st in all three weeks of the Group Stage, they’ll hopefully find their match in the Knockout Stage.

2. n0rulesnvr, despite taking it easy this week, managed to get 34 points. Great performance in the first two weeks was enough to guarantee a place in the next round.

Congrats!

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Group F

Group F saw an explosive last day. The leader, despite sitting safely in the first place, made another $500 to cement their position. Overall, the group was extremely competitive and three traders managed to make the cut:

1. Arrth took it easy this week with only $12 in profit, but strong previous two weeks ensured their qualification.

2. Fuentes99 proved that they are the force to reckon with. After a weak performance in Week 2, they are once again at the top of the leaderboard with stunning $1,300 in profit.

3. CoffeLover_pm had a slow start, but a stellar performance in Week 2 and Week 3 helped them qualify from the third place with 29 points.

Congrats!

Group G

In hindsight, there was no doubt on who will qualify to the Knockout Stage from Group G. After Week 1 only three traders remained active and all 3 made the cut:

1. xeny- won the group after a last minute prediction of Portugal vs Croatia World Cup game.

2. Rex416 got 36 points for the second place. After a rather easy group round, they will now face their equals in the Knockout Stage.

3. Kween was also taking it easy. No more.

The Knockout Stage will show if the group was really that easy, or simply the top three traders were too good to go against. Congrats!

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Group H

Group H has strong contenders for the tournament winner. Only two traders advanced to the Knockout Stage, but these two can really make it big:

1. Maskache absolutely dominated the group. They won the two first weeks and were placed second in the final week. This weather trader is one of the favorites to win the tournament.

2. aenews is an OG Polymarket trader who showed that he still has it. With 39 points, he’ll now need to prove himself in the 1:1 matchup.

Protrade, if it weren’t for an awful week of trading, could have made it as well. With 26 points, they were just below the cut.

Congrats!

Group I

Group I saw little action in Week 3. The top trader had only $33 in profit, showing that sometimes you need a bit of luck. Despite this performance, previous weeks were far more interesting and we have two traders that will now need to prove themselves in the Knockout Stage:

1. strider_pm had a bad start in Week1, but following weeks they were placed first, giving them 32 points.

2. 0xd1namit managed to make it with only $3 in profit. However, in the previous two weeks they had a far better performance.

Congrats!

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Group J

Group J was also extremely competitive. However, the three traders that have consistently made it to this recap are the ones that are now in the Knockout Stage:

1. BeefSlayer_ is the undisputed leader of the group. They are not afraid of big risks and have already proved that they can go big to secure the top spot.

2. sonix consistently placed at the top of the leaderboard. Their 36 points put them well above the threshold to qualify.

3. PeterParker3Hive had a stellar week that ensured their advancement. With $1,063 in this week’s profit they proved that they deserve a place in the top 32 of Polymarket traders.

Congrats!

Group K

What an end of the week for Group K. Despite massive effort to overtake the leaders, it’s the traders placed 4-6 this week that ended up in the Knockout Stage. Even a stunning trade from UnyieldingGrit was not enough to change the outcome:

1. WeatherOnly ended up with 33 points to lead Group K. Another weather trader in the tournament, now they’ll have to prove that they can keep up their performance.

2. atteonthephone, also a weather trader, had a slow week, but their performance in the first two rounds was enough to guarantee them a place in the next stage.

3. Splunksy, despite losing $289 this week accumulated enough points to advance from the third place in the group.

Congrats!

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Group L

Group L ended up being the least active overall. However, three traders managed to qualify to the Knockout Stage:

1. OnlyLuckNoBrain has truly lived up to their nick. With 32 points after three rounds, they qualify from the first place in the group.

2. thonka is just behind them with 31 points and $367 in profit this week alone. However, they’ll need to be more active once the Knockout Stage begins.

3. PMKFund is the third trader to advance. After winning the group in the first two weeks, they took the third week of knowing that 30 points is enough to qualify to the Knockout Stage.

Congrats!

Wrap Up

Now that the top 32 traders will compete head to head we’ll see who has it in themselves to make it to the very top. The Group Stage was forgiving to some traders. From now on, only real predictors will be able to advance.

Do you have a pick for the winner? Let us know in the comments.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! We have less than 24 hours till the end of the Group Stage. While most of the traders at the top are trying to play it safe, there are a few traders who can still make some noise and change the calculus.

Let’s do a quick recap of the last 24 hours and see who can still make it.

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Quick Rules Summary

Traders are now competing in the group phase, in three weekly round. They start every round with a fresh $500 and are ranked against their group by that round's profit. Where they finish earns points — top 10 score, everyone else gets 0.

After 3 weeks, top two traders out of each group (and eight best traders from the third place) advance to knockouts.

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Best Trade of the Day

The main leaderboard was very quiet yesterday. It was a trader from just outside the top 10 who made the best trade of the day:

wisechinamann is now leading Group C after making $319 predicting that Trump will insult Netanyahu. While they have no chance of qualifying, we admire the effort.

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day title belongs to abcdefmlzy:

They lost their entire bankroll wrongly predicting two World Cup games yesterday. Tough luck!

Group Standings

Group A

We have some changes in Group A. While 0X357 is still the undisputed leader, Joker_Poly moved up and is now in the second place. In the third place we have HondaCivic, who is now on track to qualify to the knockout stage.

MoralOrel also had an impressive day yesterday, moving from a $338 loss to $80 in profit. While they are still short of qualifying to the knockout stage, it’s an impressive achievement. Congrats!

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Group B

No changes in Group B. It’s a bit surprising as there are quite a few traders, like HotSkull or Brokie, who could qualify by simply becoming active and not losing their entire bankroll.

Will they do it? We’ll see in the next 24 hours.

Group C

We had a change of leader in Group C. wisechinamann is now at the top of the leaderboard with $314 in profit. The rest of the traders wasn’t really active in the last 24 hours.

With one day left, only ibelievethatwewillwinplease can change who will advance to the knockout stage. If they manage to overcome whiggeries, who is only $19 ahead of them, they will qualify instead of the current leader. It will be tense 24 hours.

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Group D

Group D saw only minimal activity. Bernardbulletin is still in the first place, but with 24 hours to go all the other spots are within reach. The trader in the second place has only $5 in profit.

Will we see some last minute action in Group D?

Group E

No changes in Group E outside of Pristine10 becoming active and overtaking picklepredictor with $0.91 loss.

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Group F

While Fuentes99 sits comfortably in the first place, there’s a fierce battle for the second place. CoffeLover_pm has made over $400 since yesterday and is now second. However, EWaves is only $17 behind them.

Both traders had a stellar performance yesterday, but unless EWaves can overtake Fuentes99 for the first place, their chances of qualifying to the knockout stage are slim.

Group G

The three active traders in Group G have collectively decided that they will just stop trading and advance to the knockout stage without making any fuss. At this point there’s no one that can threaten their position. Congrats!

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Group H

Aenews has overtaken Maskache for the first place in Group G. The weather trader who won the first two weeks of the group round has had a bad week. However, both aenews and Maskache can be virtually certain of their advancement to the knockout stage.

The last 24 hours will be tense for Protrade though. With $136 loss and 26 points they are barely above the threshold. Can they keep their position in the next 24 hours? We’ll see.

Group I

Situation in Group I remains stable with only two traders active.

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Group J

Group J is also stable. All three traders at the top of the leaderboard can be almost sure they will qualify to the knockout stage. We will take a look at them over the weekend and see if the last 24 hours didn’t change anything.

Group K

Group K is an interesting case. Currently, traders placed 2-4 are the ones that are bound to qualify to the knockout stage. Despite some losses, their performance in the first two weeks was enough to guarantee the place in the next round.

Congrats!

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Group L

We have a new face in Group L. justigor made a trade and is now $4 in profit. However, this little performance didn’t change anything for the group - thonka and OnlyLuckNoBrain are set to qualify to the knockout stage with little effort.

Wrap Up

That’s it for today. Most of the traders are looking to play it safe and qualify to the knockout stage after almost three weeks of intensive competition. However, there are a few that can still make some noise.

We are awaiting some tense action as the clock runs down the last 24 hours.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! It’s been an impressive day. Not only did no trader make a trade bad enough to be featured in the worst trade of the day, but also we had an exceptional trade by a now famous weather trader that put them well at the top of the leaderboard.

With only 48 hours left, traders are trying their best to advance to the knockout stage. n some groups, the field is still open and the last 48 hours will decide everything.

Let’s do a quick recap of the last 24 hours.

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Quick Rules Summary

Traders are now competing in the group phase, in three weekly round. They start every round with a fresh $500 and are ranked against their group by that round's profit. Where they finish earns points — top 10 score, everyone else gets 0.

After 3 weeks, top two traders out of each group (and eight best traders from the third place) advance to knockouts.

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Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goes to 0X357. They made $1,398 predicting the highest temperature in the NYC, leaving the rest of the traders well behind. They now have $2,066 in weekly profit, over $1,000 ahead of Fuentes99 in the second place.

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Day

Today traders avoided bankroll-erasing trades and no one deserves to get the worst trade of the day title. Keep it up!

Group Standings

Group A

We are witnessing a truly impressive performance from 0X357. They are now well ahead of the group after making almost $1,400 predicting the highest temperature in the NYC.

They are followed by DontMind and Joker_Poly with $375 and $276 in profit. Weather traders continue to absolutely dominate the tournament. If we had a market on the niche of the winner, I’d say that weather should trade above 90c.

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Group B

Raskell, aka Airdropper2, is absolutely dominating Group B. After winning the group in the previous two weeks, they are once again at the top with $467 in profit. They made their profit predicting that Trump would insult Keir Starmer by the end of June.

Just $33 behind is Mosesfan, who had a stable day thinking they are well ahead of the group. In the third place we have TheNooMast with $249 in profit.

It seems that even doubling your bankroll might not be enough to lead a group. Top traders are extremely sharp and competitive. Some of them are bound to make more in P&L than from the prize itself!

Group C

Group C has seen little changes since yesterday. PityokH is still on the lead, however wisechinamann has made an appearance and now holds the second place. With $78 in profit, they are way behind PityokH.

After ClydeCash erased their bankroll, we expect more traders to become active in an effort to push them out of the knockout stage.

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Group D

Bernardbulletin took the lead in Group D. They had a good day predicting Colorado Primaries for $166 in profit. Behind them is ExertoATH with $25 in profit.

Yesterday’s leader, green, had a bad day. They lost $74 wrongly predicting that Claude Fable won’t be restored by July 1st.

The group continues to be rather inactive, meaning that if any traders decide to go active, they can potentially change who will advance to the knockout stage.

Group E

Group E is completely inactive, even though a couple of traders could challenge picklepredictor and advance to the knockout stage.

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Group F

We had some changes in Group F. While Fuentes99 enjoys their massive lead, CoffeLover_pm has managed to turn their fortune. Only yesterday they had over $250 in losses. Today they hold the second place with $48 in profit. Congrats!

A few other traders became active, however only czxc319861 made some respectable profit and now sits in the third place with $40 in the green.

Group G

Group G remains as one of the least competitive in the tournament. However, Rex416 made over $350 shortly after mine recap to get the first place from Kween.

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Group H

Maskache had a bumpy day trading weather markets. While they are still in the lead, it was cut down to $150. Behind them is aenews, who sports a modest profit of $68.

In the third place we have HilelTheElder, who managed to make up $105 in losses and now sits with $56 profit. Ultimately though, Maskache and aenews are almost guaranteed to advance to the knockout stage at this point.

Group I

Nothing has really changed in Group I. Strider_pm is still in the lead, with 0xd1namite in the second. However, 0xd1namite managed to cut their losses, from $297 to $136.

Both are looking to advance to the knockout stage if nothing changes.

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Group J

Only yesterday I’ve mentioned that PeterParker3Hive can still challenge the leaders. Today, they sit in the first place with $605 in profit. This exceptional performance landed them on the Best 3rd Place List with high chances of advancing to the knockout stage:

Other traders in the group were flat on the day.

Group K

It was a bad day for Group K traders. Only 0xFudrick managed to stay in the green, while WeatherOnly and atteonthephone landed in red. However, it’s the red traders (including Splunksy), who are now almost sure to advance to the knockout stage. Week 1 and Week 2 performance saved them.

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Group L

Same old in Group L. Looks like thonka and OnlyLuckNoBrain will advance to the knockout stage with little effort.

Wrap Up

That’s it for today. With only 48 hours left in the group stage, do you think there’s any chance for a last minute change? Let us know in the comments.

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Hey traders! Day 2 of trading proved to be a lot more volatile. We have some new traders in the global leaderboard. At the same time, some of the traders that made it big in the first two weeks, have managed to lose their entire bankroll and now they only have hope left.

The tournament is heating up as we enter the last three days of trading before the knockout stage!

Let’s do a quick recap of the last 24 hours.

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Quick Rules Summary

Traders are now competing in the group phase, in three weekly round. They start every round with a fresh $500 and are ranked against their group by that round's profit. Where they finish earns points — top 10 score, everyone else gets 0.

After 3 weeks, top two traders out of each group (and eight best traders from the third place) advance to knockouts.

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Best Trade of the Day

The best trade of the day goest to Fuentes99, who managed to make $734 predicting the outcomes of the World Cup games. It’s an amazing return to the top, as this trader went to zero in Week 2, after a stellar performance in Week 1.

Congrats!

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Worst Trade of the Day

The worst trade of the day goes to ClydeCash.

After an amazing performance in the first two weeks, this trader managed to erase their entire bankroll wrongly predicting the number of Elon Musk’s tweets. Now all they have left is hope that the points they managed to get in the first two weeks will be enough to qualify to the knockouts stage.

We’re keeping our fingers crossed!

Group Standings

Group A

0X357 continues to dominate Group A with $887 in profit after two days of trading. The weather gods were especially favorable to them, which cannot be said about HondaCivic. After a stellar performance last week, they are sitting at only $45 in profit, behind Levi, a sports trader, with $132 in profit.

At the bottom of the table, MoralOrel has a string of bad variance and is down $358. Can they reverse their luck and challenge the leaders?

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Group B

It was a quiet day in Group B. Mosesfan is still at the top with $453 in profit. The most interesting action happened at the bottom of the leaderboard.

PolyTrader2026 managed to lose it all by wrongly predicting Germany vs Paraguay World Cup game. However, I need to give it back to PolyTrader2026 a bit. It was not a horrible trade. Germany losing to Paraguay in penalties as not on my bingo either.

However, this trade has effectively ended their chance of advancing to the knockout stage. Better luck next time!

Group C

PityokH has their comeback! After an unlucky streak, they are finally at the top of the Group C, with $225 in profit. Congrats!

The second and the third place have a rather unimpressive performance, but there is something extremely interesting at the bottom of the leaderboard. ClydeCash, who ended Week 1 and Week 2 in the second and first place, is now out of the game!

They lost $477 wrongly predicting Elon Musk’s number of tweets and possibly lost their chance of advancing to the knockout stage. It will be a tense week for Group C as the fight for points will last till the very last day.

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Group D

Group D is not really exciting. Green leads the group with only $8 in profit, while the last trader, 4theTrees has only $14 loss.

We hope to see better performance from traders there!

Group E

Group E is even less exciting than Group D. However, there are a few traders that still have a shot at the knockout stage. We expect them to go active soon and try challenging Mirza and picklepredictor for the top two spots.

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Group F

Group F is a group of polar opposites. On the one hand we have Fuentes99. He had a great performance in Week 1, followed by a complete blowout in Week 2. Now, they’re once again at the top of the leaderboard, with $729 in profit.

On the other hand we have CoffeLover_pm, who managed to lose more than half of their bankroll in one trade. Now, CoffeLover_pm needs to hope that they can maintain their position as one of the top 8 third places.

Group G

We saw mixed performance in Group G. Rex416, yesterday’s leader, had an extremely volatile day, but they ended up with $58 in profit for the second place.

They were overtaken by Kween, who made $206 on weather markets. However, the entire active part of the group (including xeny- in the third place) can be almost sure of advanicng to the knockout stage, as all have over 30 points now.

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Group H

Maskache continues to dominate Group H. This weather trader continues to show that weather traders belong at the top with third straight week of stellar performance.

In the meantime, HilelTheElder turned negative and is now dead last with 20% of their bankroll erased.

Group I

Gropu I is rather uneventful. We have only two traders active: strider_pm, who comfortably sits in the first place with only $33 in profit and 0xd1namit.

It’s yet another trader who got burnt on Germany vs Paraguay World Cup game. 0xd1namit lost $297 on this game. However, they can still qualify for the knockout stage if no other traders become active.

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Group J

Gropu J has started Week 3 strong. Sonix continues to lead the group with $398 in profit after two days of trading. They are closely followed by BeefSlayer_, with $305 in profit.

The third and fourth place are a bit behind, but still positive. Foster has $103 in profit, while Securebet is up $41. However, there’s one more trader who can change the game. If PeterParker3Hive becomes active (and profitable), they can completely change who will qualify for the knockout stage.

Will they go active? We surely hope so.

Group K

We have a change of leadership in Group K. 0xFudrick managed to overtake atteonthephone by $4 and now has $60 in profit.

The rest of the group is rather inactive. Strange, as everyone active is within 6 points of each other. We expect the group to heat up as we approach the end of Week 3 trading.

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Group L

Group L continues its tradition of starting it slow. However, behind thonka and OnlyLuckNoBrain, we have a currently inactive PMKFund.

Sitting at 30 points from the first two weeks, they just need to become active to come out at the top. We expect them to do so soon.

Wrap Up

That’s it for today. We can start to analyze who will advance to the knockout stage as some of the traders really took off in Week 3. However, there are still quite a few contested spots and the end of Week 3 trading is bound to be extremely volatile and interesting.

Who are you rooting for? Let us know in the comments!

See you tomorrow for another HIVE World Cup Recap!

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This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.