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A Tale Of Two Wars

The peace effort in Ukraine is not what you think it is

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PROPHET - Prediction Markets
Nov 30, 2025
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How uncertainty about US strategy complicates Europe's approach to the  Indo-Pacific | Lowy Institute
People laughed at this picture, but I don’t think they realize what was happening there. Source: Lowy Institute

Ok. It’s time to revisit the Ukraine war and set the record straight regarding the peace efforts. Everyone and their mother have a theory on what is happening and what will happen - from pure warmongers that see either side being totally obliterated as only viable solution to nationalist pacifists that think it’s high time the war ends.

But they are so deeply biased by their own politics, that they fail to see the real game being played right in front of our eyes. And it’s not about peace or saving lives - it’s about priorities on the grand chessboard of the current Cold War.

So today I will show you:

  1. Why the current peace effort is so bizarre.

  2. What will come out of it.

  3. When (or if?) we can expect peace.


What The Hell Is Going On?

In the last 2 weeks we’ve seen a very plausibly Russian 28-point peace plan being floated as American, Trump forcing it on Zelensky only to back down 2 days later, Rubio admitting to knowing nothing about it, only to backtrack on his words 2 days later. On top of that we have a leaked call between Witkoff and Ushakov where Witkoff coaches Ushakov on how to handle Trump. And this is only in the US.

In Europe we have a discussion about using Russian frozen assets to finance Ukraine. Same Russian assets that would be divided between the US and Russia in the 28-point peace plan. And in Ukraine we have the biggest corruption scandal in years that is costing Zelensky majority (if not all) of his political capital - even Yermak was forced to resign to protect Zelensky.

Lastly, we had MBS visit to the White House, which funnily coincides with the first 28-point plan leak.

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