Deep Dive: SB 1047 AI safety bill

To sign or not to sign?

To sing or not to sign? A tough one, right? I really hope I am not writing this in vain and will manage to publish it before the decision. That being said I think I have time till Friday, so I took a risk of actually writing it. For this article (as most of the articles, but shh!) I am using Grok image generation. Being honest, prompting Grok for images is a rather awful experience with no ability to alter previously generated image. I rarely use AI, but for text it is much better. All in all we are still a long way from a proper revolution.

I am mostly back from my personal turmoils and ready to give you more prediction market alpha. I was deciding between doing a VP debate mentions market deep dive vs AI safety bill, but ultimately I think the latter is more interesting. We have many mentions markets and I doubt I could provide much additional insight. After all we know the main debate topics and all can do a fairly good educated guess on most of the words. That being said, I will continue to give out some tips on them on the rolling basis both here in the global outlooks and on X.

Before we jump into the topic, I hope that PUMPA_ bet something on the Caroline Ellison market as I did really good on the prediction there. It was far from a sure bet, but the analysis was sound. Focus was on the judge and context vs expert opinion. I am far from legal expert, but high profile business cases are more about the optics than recommendations. Key is to keep the public content while showing that actions have consequences.

Coming back to the topic, the decision on this bill is quite crucial. California is currently on the forefront of AI innovation and the bill is putting regulatory pressure on the companies. In the Democratic lawmakers eyes, this is a fine line decision, swaying between properly regulating a new industry and at the same time trying to leave enough space for a competitive environment. Let’s see where lies the alpha.

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Baseline

To analyze this situation, I will go through a few important topics:

• content of the bill,

• political context for Gavin Newsom,

• headline stories,

• popular reception.

Based on this we will have a full picture, able to give us proper odds on the signing. Personally I am against regulating emerging industries, but my political views do not matter here. Last time I checked I am not Gavin Newsom. He is the one signing the bill so a lot of focus will be put on the second point - after all this is not entirely about AI safety. This is about party political agenda and personal political agenda. And Mr. Gavin is not without ambition.