Election Special: The Return of the Jedi
A Massive Win for Trump, PROPHET NOTES, Prediction Markets and X
I could not think of a better photo to sum up the 2024 election. The better campaign has won. While the emotions are still running hot across the world, this is a good time to reflect on the election itself as well as on what lies ahead. We are surely looking at interesting times ahead, but what exactly does it mean?
Today I will focus on the future. The future of the US, the future of prediction markets and the future of PROPHET NOTES. I am still wrapping my head around all the topics, but contrary to a lot of pundits and bettors, I expected Trump to win for some time now. I have my ideas around the general direction the world is taking on right now, but some of them are bound to evolve with more visibility on Trump’s new administration.
But overall the future looks bright! At least for my personal interests. But more on that later. If you are coping hard after the election or just want to see what the future may hold, subscribe below. If you are already there, then thank you and let’s see what the future holds.
Election Aftermath
If you read my last article, it is no shocker that Trump won. The baseline analysis of the election was spot on. The highlight of my analysis was that Trump has a better character arch (the hero narrative) and that his campaign did a better job in framing the kay issues of the election, while Kamala’s camp accepted the framing. Add on top of that Trump’s podcast reach and you have the perfect mix for victory.
But if I were to summarize this is one sentence it would look something like this: if you are in sales, you have to have something to sell. If you missed my analysis on the election, take a look below and see for yourself:
Election Special: Heads or Tails?
Yes I did it and if you were me, you would do it too. I cannot escape this topic. But I can approach it differently. We are swamped by data: polls, early voting, election models, etc. Ironically though, despite relying on the same source, most of them differ, and some of them differ by a lot.
Once you are good with the rationale, I can move to the explanation. So first, let’s look at the polls. Why were they wrong? Or were they wrong? There are basically three main issues with the polls:
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