Escalation trap! Some analysts are ecstatic that they predicted a return to hostilities. Now, they go a step further predicting further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, including a US invasion of Iran (sic!). I wonder what they’ll say once it’s clear there’s no US invasion coming.
The mainstream view on the situation misses the bigger picture. They still think that the purpose of this war is to beat Iran! If they dared to challenge this assumption, they’d discover that there’s much more at play. But they are too entrenched in their own ways—don’t be like them. Subscribe and see what’s really going on.
The Iran War
Background
I have repeatedly said that Iran might strike shipping in response to the Lebanon framework agreement. It was signed just a few days after the MoU and showed the cunning side of American diplomacy. At its core, the Lebanon framework agreement was signed to cooperate in restoring Lebanon’s total sovereignty and enforcing the government’s monopoly on arms.
The MoU asked the US and its allies just that. But the Lebanon framework expanded these principles in a way that they target Hezbollah now. It is a twisted interpretation of the relevant MoU clause from Iran’s point of view. Thus, escalation was inevitable.
The MoU resulted in one big win for the US. In coordination with regional governments and international organization, it was able to restore a significant part of the traffic through the strait. We went from less than 10 vessels a day (or low 20s if we approximate dark transits) to over 60 vessels a day on the best post-MoU day.
Attempting to limit the traffic through the strait was Iran’s best bet to protect its interests.
The Aim of the War
The framework from my recent article is still the best explanation of the conflict:
The Post-War Order In The Middle East
Not a single analysis of the Iran war I read bothered to offer a forecast of the future. All of them tried to explain Trump’s actions. All of them judged these actions. All of them provided a set of supposedly better solutions. But none offered a view of the post-war Middle East.
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