I’m back with the forecast updates after a brief hiatus. With 10 days to midterms, there’s plenty to cover, and there will be more. Starting next week I’ll try to have daily updates. From the running forecasts, I also have the Brazil Presidential election which heads to runoff tomorrow. I think traders are underpricing Flávio Bolsonaro again.
Today I’ll cover both. On the midterms, we had a dump of fresh polls on previously unpolled House races and Vivek’s infamous ad on Acton impacting the markets most. In Brazil, the key is how the undecided break with polls showing an extremely close race.
Midterms
It’s been only 3 days since I published my midterms forecast and we already have quite a big change in the House topline. Senate control chances also moved by over 1 point, a testament to how close the race for the upper chamber of Congress is.