Today’s Global Outlook is replaced with a midterms forecast update. Since last week, OMEN has moved in one direction only—blue—and it’s now at least 4 points higher on every topline number. I’ll comment a bit on the toplines, what moved them most and which races reacted the most to the recent wave of blue polls.
Then I have a small update on the Iran war and the Ukraine war as both are expected to dominate the news cycle after the election.
Midterms
Since last week, the forecast has moved in one direction only—blue. OMEN is now at least 4 points higher on every topline number.
Polls that are closer to election day tend to be more accurate and they have significant impact on the forecast. Additionally, NYT/Siena and AtlasIntel are among the most accurate pollsters in the US. Both showed nothing short of a blue tsunami, including a blue Texas and Kansas! AtlasIntel is even showing a +14.1D generic ballot… let me remind you that only 2 years ago Republicans won the popular vote and every swing state.