Welcome to another week in this crazy world. Embroiled in bureaucracy I come to you with the fresh set of news and developments for the week anyway. So much paper to push just to continue doing what I do.
One day countries will collapse under the weight of their bureaucracy, mark my words. But for now hit that subscribe button if you still didn’t and let’s see what is going on in the world.
Weekly Outlook
This week is definitely less dense than the last one, but we have a few interesting developments in Asia .
US Inc.
In an expected move by an American appeals court, Trump’s tariffs were deemed unlawful. Now the case will go to the Supreme Court that is expected to overrule the verdict and solidify Trump’s tariffs as lawful, making one of the most important precedences in the American history. I will be looking at developments there closely.
In international affairs, Trump admin said it would deny and revoke visas from members of the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinian Authority ahead of the upcoming UN General Assembly. It’s all about the Gaza war and America is trying its best to fully support Israel, while countries like France, Canada and Britain are looking to officially recognize a Palestinian state at the very gathering.
Back to domestic, there was a mass shooting in Minneapolis on the first Mass of the school year. Two children are dead and 17 other people, mostly children are injured. The attacker, a past pupil, shot himself and died. The shooting is now investigated by he FBI as an act of domestic terrorism and hate crime targeting Catholics.
Lastly, Trump admin fired Suzan Monarez from director of CDC. She was sworn into the job less than a month ago. She refuses to resign and apparently the cause was resisting changes to vaccine policy suggested by RFK Jr..
The Americas
Nothing to report here.
Asia
The constitutional court in Thailand ruled on the fate on Paetongtarn Shinawatra - after almost 2 months of being suspended as Thailand’s PM, the court found her guilty and removed her from office. The case revolved around Thailand-Cambodia conflict and PM’s call with Hun Sen, Cambodia’s ex-leader, where she disparaged a Thai general. You can read more about the case here.
Xi and Modi met ahead of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization leaders’ meeting in Tianjin. They pledged greater economic co-operation in an effort to offset Trump tariffs (which were doubled on India in the recent days). The SCO meeting will be attended by the leaders of more than 20 other countries, including Russia. Putin, along with Kim Jong-un will also attend a military parade in Beijing later this week. All in an effort to usher in a multipolar world order and counter the US hegemony.
Middle East & Africa
Outside the show on the UN meeting, the Gaza and Palestinian situation on the ground is still developing. This week we learned that Israel is planning to annex parts of West Bank as a response to the upcoming recognition of the Palestinian state. Additionally Israel faces a Red Cross backlash for attempting to evacuate Gaza City ahead of further operations there.
Israel is also regularly striking Houthis in Yemen and last week they killed Ahmed al-Rahawi, the prime minister of the rebel-controlled government in Yemen. Both countries are engaged in repeated, but fairly limited strikes for some time now. In a response to the killing, the Houthis raided UN offices in Sana’a detaining at least one employee.
Moving to Africa, we have an upcoming election in Tanzania. It’s looking like an easy win for the current regime as the electoral commission barred the candidate of its second biggest opposition party from standing in the election. As the main opposition party was already blocked, Samia Suluhu Hassan, the current president, has no real competition for the office. Her party has ruled Tanzania since independence in 1961.
Europe
Moving to Europe, last week Russia launched one of its largest drone attacks in months. Seems like we hear this headline on a weekly basis now, but this time the strikes cut power to over 100,000 people when important gas facilities were damaged.
The attacks also damaged EU mission and British Council buildings which resulted in Russian ambassador being summoned by Britain and the EU. Amid the drama, Zelensky called for tougher sanctions on Russia and vowed to retaliate with deep strikes. Separately, a suspect was arrested after Andriy Parubiy, a former speaker of parliament and a prominent figure in Ukraine’s pro-EU Maidan revolution of 2014, was shot dead.
And in a somewhat surprising twist, Denmark summoned US top diplomat in the country after reports that American citizens linked to Trump had tried to build networks in Greenland to influence its politics. It’s the second time this year that happened.
Business, Finance & Economics
Moving to economic news, Howard Lutnick hinted that Trump admin was considering buying stakes in defense companies. He called Lockheed Martin basically an arm of the US government. Lockheed’s stock jumped on the news.
Considering Lisa Cook, the Fed board member that is now fighting Trump in court over her firing, Trump supposedly has several people in mind to replace her. The hearing in her case was on Friday and we are yet to hear the ruling, that was promised to be delivered swiftly. I am also waiting the September 5th job data.
In the meantime in Britain long-term bonds sold off sharply as investors are worried about high levels of debt, weak growth and persistent inflation. Seems like a recurring theme among developed economies. If yields remain stubbornly high expect persistent long-term inflation to reduce the debt burden.
Lastly, India’s GDP grew by 7.8% y/y from April to June, ahead of 6.5% forecast. However India now faces steep US tariffs that experts think could shave 20-90 basis points off future growth.
Tariffs
And two more news in the tariff department. First of all Trump imposed a 50% tariff on most goods arriving to America from India. Apple must be furious while Trump is playing games. The increased tariff is a punishment for purchasing Russian oil - maybe Europe should also face this as they also buy Russian energy through proxies.
And secondly America will begin implementing tariffs on all packages entering the country, removing the de minimis exemption. In response some global postal services said they would stop delivering to America.
Wrap up
And that’s all for the week. With prediction markets entering a bit of a slump after a short Ukraine peace revival I am diving right back into the bureaucracy while thinking about the next deep dive topic. Wish me luck!
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.