Global Outlook: Escalation
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 4/6/26
Welcome to another week! Fake narratives, disinformation and the fog of war dominate the headlines. We are being hit with conflicting information every hour now and at least some people got extremely confused about the whole global situation.
Looking at my X timeline, almost no one has a coherent view of the immediate future and both prediction markets and financial markets experience extreme volatility. So let’s try to keep our sanity here and look at the world through objective lenses.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
Domestic politics goes on while the war rages on.
Trump sacked Pam Bondi, the AG. She oversaw Epstein files release and failed attempts to prosecute Trump’s enemies.
Comment: she’s not been particularly effective in her job to be honest.
With the Iran war raging on, the Trump admin said it would ask for a significant rise in defense spending in the next budget request for 2027. Funding would amount to ca. $1.5 trillion, an over 40% increase y/y.
Comment: massive amount of equipment is moving and Trump is asking for $1.5 trillion. Ceasefire? It’s rather a narrative for the markets than a serious negotiation.
Trump unveiled tariffs of up to 100% on some drugs, targeting pharmaceutical companies that didn’t move production to the US. Generic drugs will be exempt. Also some tariffs on products containing small amounts of steel, aluminum or copper were eased and simplified.
Comment: the longer the war goes on, the more tariffs will be adjusted as shortages of certain products hit the global markets.
Marco Rubio criticized China’s detention of ships with Panama flag and said it threatened the country’s sovereignty. China denies any wrongdoing, especially in connection to Panama canal ports that were taken away from Chinese companies.
Comment: just another day of US-China rivalry.
Artemis II mission launched with 4 astronauts on the way to circle the moon, in preparation for the first manned moon mission since the Apollo program. NASA wants to put first astronauts on the moon by 2028 and establish a permanent base there later on.
Comment: I wish them all the best in the mission, humans need to explore the space!
The Americas
Outside of Panama, nothing really to report here. Delcy is still staying strong:
Asia
As war rages on, more and more countries are not only introducing restrictions, but also negotiating with Iran.
New restrictions:
China: extension of its existing ban on exports of refined fuels (diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel) through the whole of April, with only limited/small-volume exemptions possibly granted to select Southeast Asian countries that requested assistance.
Indonesia: introduction of a daily cap on subsidized fuel purchases of 50 liters per private four-wheeled vehicle (higher limits apply to public transport and heavy vehicles). Purchases above the quota are charged at non-subsidized prices. Friday Work-From-Home mandate for all government employees and civil servants introduced. Private-sector employers were “strongly encouraged” to follow the same schedule to reduce commuting fuel use and office electricity demand.
Malaysia: mandatory WFH for all public-sector employees, statutory bodies, and government-linked companies. Batik Air announced it would trim approximately 35% of its scheduled flights in the first half of April to conserve jet fuel amid shortages and soaring costs linked to the Iran conflict.
South Korea: raised its national energy-security alert from “caution” to “warning” and, alongside the odd-even license-plate driving restrictions for public institutions (effective April 8), officially encouraged flexible/remote working arrangements and video-conference meetings across government agencies and large private firms. Low-cost carriers Jin Air and Air Busan suspended flights on several routes (including Incheon–Guam) in response to rising jet-fuel costs.
Myanmar: tightening of existing fuel-rationing rules for taxis, three-wheelers, and cargo trucks by linking sales directly to verified mileage traveled (replacing prior engine-capacity or fixed-quota systems).
Thailand: Thai AirAsia and Thai AirAsia X suspended multiple domestic and international routes (including Bangkok–Narathiwat and Don Mueang–Xi’an) effective mid-April through summer 2026. Work from home encouragement as well.
Philippines: Cebu Pacific began suspending select domestic and regional flights across Asia.
Comment: first slowly, then suddenly, COVID-style lockdowns are being implemented across Asia to curb demand.
The Philippines and Iran agreed on safe passage for the formers vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
Comment: more and more countries will cut deals with Iran as the situation progresses.
The Cook Islands signed a defense and security agreement with New Zealand, months after they signed a strategic partnership with China.
Comment: just another part of east vs west rivalry.
Middle East & Africa
The Iran war drama continues.
Threats over Kharg Island continued, as did strikes on oil infrastructure across the region.
Zelensky hailed historic security agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE on drone defense.
The peace proposal from the beginning of the week failed.
Trump also did a televised address in which he assumed another 2-3 weeks of intense operations in Iran before the US can end the war.
Then Trump threatened bridges and power plants if Iran fails to agree to a ceasefire, culminating in a very angry message below
There was also a rescue operation for the pilots of a downed F-15 airplane over Iran, which succeeded with pretty high equipment costs.
Iran’s foreign minister wanted that a radioactive fallout will end life in the Gulf after a 4th attack on the area surrounding Busher nuclear power plant, where one person died due to the strikes.
There was a massive airlift operation over the weekend.
There a new ceasefire rumor, first it was a 45-day ceasefire proposal, leaked by Axios, then a 2-phase peace plan proposed by Pakistan.
Comment: it’s Monday so we got another ceasefire narrative, even more outrageously fake than previous ones. Don’t get me wrong - they are talking, there are always conversations taking place - but there is nothing they can agree on and there is no advanced negotiation taking place. As for other developments, all points to further escalation and possible boots on the ground. More on Wednesday in my upcoming video.
8 muslim majority countries, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey criticized new Israeli law that will expand the use of the death penalty, in fears that it will be used to target Palestinians.
Comment: the plan must continue and there will be no 2-state solution unless Israeli leadership changes materially.
Europe
Another interesting week in Europe as it braces for energy supply shock (it is the next most affected region after Asia).
New restrictions (outside of Slovakia fuel rationing and Poland fuel price cap):
European Union: Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen urged all member states to promote Work-From-Home where possible, reduce driving, lower highway speed limits by 10 km/h, use public transport more, carpool, and avoid non-essential flying.
Italy: Imposed jet fuel refueling restrictions at Bologna, Milan Linate, Treviso, and Venice airports due to limited availability from Air BP Italia. Priority given to medical, government, and long-haul flights.
United Kingdom: Aurigny airline reduced approximately 12% of its scheduled flights (cancellations and consolidations) on multiple routes from mid-April to early June.
Europe: Ryanair warned it may cancel 5–10% of its flights during May–July if jet fuel supply disruptions continue.
Comment: Europe is 2-3 weeks behind Asia, expect measures to follow if the conflict continues unresolved.
Zelensky discussed the possibility of an Easter ceasefire, but it failed as Russia dubbed it a PR stunt.
Comment: Ukraine war, or more precisely peace efforts, will get really interesting in the next couple of months.
European countries are privately pushing back against new windfall taxes on big oil, deeming the measure premature while the European Commission is working on a plan.
Comment: it will happen eventually.
Meloni met with Qatar leadership as part of a 2-day diplomatic push to strengthen ties with the Gulf to secure energy supplies. She also talked with Mohammed bin Salman.
Comment: I’d rather say she went straight to the source to understand the fallout. We should closely watch Italy in the next few days regarding new measures.
French police tightened security at sites across Paris after foiling a bomb attack at the BofA HQs. Other American banks allowed temporary WFH while the authorities placed 4 people linked to Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiyya under investigation.
Comment: Europe is worried about joining the war partly because of terrorist threat from sleeper cells. Another con of having large amounts of migrants.
Business, Finance & Economics
SpaceX filed for an IPO. Valued at over $1 trillion, it is looking to raise tens of billions to usher its plans for a Mars base and data centers in space.
Comment: potentially the hottest IPO ever, let’s see if it comes to that amid potential stock market crash in the making.
Blue Owl enforced a cap on redemptions at 5% of shares per quarter from 2 of its private credit funds.
Comment: rumors of a private credit crash have been circulating for months; it is yet another proof they are correct.
Wrap up
And that’s all for today. I’m working on a Hungary election thesis at the moment, if I find anything I’ll publish a deep dive this week. Stay strong and catch me here or on X.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.