Global Outlook: Europe In Disarray After The New NSS
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 12/8/25
Welcome to another week. Last one one pretty busy with continued pressure on Venezuela, Putin’s visit to India, Macron’s visit to China and the new National Security Strategy finally published. Europeans are still in shock after reading the document.
Never a dull day in 2025. And everything points to 2026 being at least equally as interesting. But more on this with my upcoming predictions for 2026. Now let’s focus on last week so hit that subscribe button and follow along.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
The White House confirmed that Hegseth authorized a follow-up strike on drug boat from Venezuela in September. Trump and Hegseth previously denied it. Also Pentagon’s watchdog concluded that Hegseth risked endangering troops during the Signalgate crisis.
Comment: the Deep State is looking to undermine Hegseth in order to challenge Trump. Nothing out of the ordinary, just a battle for influence.
In the meantime the Pentagon said it struck another boat in the eastern Pacific, killing four people.
Comment: the US is still delaying its attack on Venezuela. Most probable explanation is that there are some negotiations taking place - for the US strikes are risky as there is high potential for a prolonged engagement. However I doubt a reasonable deal can be reached.
Trump proposed loosening fuel efficiency standard for American cars. The new policy would require car manufacturers to reach an average fuel efficiency of 34.5 miles per gallon, from the current 50.4, by 2031. Trump announced it surrounded by executives from top manufacturers.
Comment: amid the cold war between team west and team east, climate policies are the first and easiest ones to ditch.
SCOTUS will hear arguments next year on the legality of Trump’s attempt to end birthright citizenship. Lower courts blocked the executive order signed by the president.
Comment: this is a very interesting case. The 14th Amendment was introduced after the Civil War to allow slaves to get the US citizenship. Its current viability is questionable, especially in the context of immigration issues combined with “pregnancy tourism”. However I don’t think the executive order is the appropriate mechanism to cancel a constitutional amendment.
The Americas
In the recently published National Security Strategy, the Western Hemisphere took the prime spot.
Comment: The US is looking to deepen the collaboration with allied countries as well as “encourage” other countries to turn to US. I guess we are starting with Venezuela and Honduras, where Trump’s favorite won a close election.
Asia
Chinese fighter jets locked their targeting radars onto Japanese warplanes near Okinawa. Japan called it a dangerous act while China accused Japan of slandering and smearing.
Comment: tensions between the two countries remain high after Japan quasi-pledged to defend Taiwan in case of Chinese invasion. We are now in a funny situation as China wouldn’t really want to invade Taiwan now and Japan, coordinating with the US, is not really afraid of tough talk. Especially since Japanese army (and navy) is pretty decent. This whole situation is getting more and more interesting.
Thailand and Cambodia clash again as the border dispute continues, despite Trump’s efforts for a ceasefire.
Comment: Thailand is obviously stronger than Cambodia and could easily strong-arm it for concessions. Thus my (for now unanswered) question is who benefits from this…
Middle East & Africa
Benin, with the help of Nigeria and France, managed to thwart a coup attempt. Earlier in the week soldiers took control of the state TV channel and claimed to have overthrown the president. They also announced the closing of the borders and suspending the constitution.
Comment: I was saying for quite some time now that Africa would be the next frontier of the cold war. I didn’t suspect it would start in 2025 though. However, this is just the beginning. We just saw the first resistance by team west, which should be followed by the push towards getting back some of the countries in team east’s sphere of influence. However, this time we might see Poland colonizing the continent (reference to the new National Security Strategy and recent comments from Hegseth on who is the good ally).
Hamas said it will return the body of a dead hostage to Israel, while Israel said it will open the Rafah crossing to allow thousands of Palestinians needing medical care to leave for Egypt.
Comment: this is part of the original ceasefire deal, showing that despite Israel’s tough posture, it is bending to fit the new US strategy, in which the Middle East is even less important than Europe.
Visa is coming to Syria, looking to boost recovery by partnering with the country’s central bank to develop a payment system.
Comment: in probably the most important development in the region in the past 2 years, Syria was first won by team west and is now being integrated into its system.
Europe
Americans were meeting with both Ukrainians and Russians this week. All the talks were tough, but constructive. The farce continues this week as Zelensky is poised to meet European leaders in London.
In the meantime European Commission is looking to use emergency powers to bypass the unanimity rule on the plan to use Russian frozen assets as collateral for Ukraine financing.
Comment: my wider thoughts on this peace effort are in my latest deep dive. What I can add here is that the main effort now is not the peace effort, but the financing effort by the European Commission - once financing is secured for Ukraine, we can forget about peace.
Putin met with Modi in India. Both leaders pledged closer cooperation on trade and energy, with Putin promising uninterrupted fuel shipments to India.
Comment: India is an important potential ally for the US, Russia and China. For now it chooses “strategic ambiguity”, but sooner or later it will have to choose either team east or team west. This visit though is a small victory for Russia, as it coincided with the new National Security Strategy mentioning India as important, strategic partner several times. In the long term the US might be the more natural choice however.
Peskov said that the new National Security Strategy was largely consistent with Russian vision. He especially meant its focus on European peace and not mentioning Russia as an enemy.
Comment: what can I say, with the current posture of European countries, Russia must be elated to see the US pulling out of the continent. I bet they would sing a different tune if Europe were not behaving like a pussy. But we can be pretty certain that most of Europe will fail to swiftly adjust to the new reality. I will do an article or a video on the whole topic of this strategy.
Macron visited China and met with Xi. They signed a few documents, but nothing substantial.
Comment: is Macron trying to see if France can move to team east? Not sure now, but the meeting didn’t go very well from what I see.
British government inquiry found that Putin authorized the attempted killing of Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, in Britain in 2018. Skripal survived the attack, but a British woman died.
Comment: Britain, somewhat soberly, starts a campaign that actively pictures Russia as bad to British citizens. Better late than never I guess, especially if they plan to engage more in the war.
Four people were arrested after apple crumble and custard were smeared on a display case containing Britain’s crown jewels at the Tower of London. Take Back Power claimed responsibility.
Comment: a new activist group that we are bound to hear more about has entered the conversation. Their aim - more power to the people vs the rich. As Europeans feel poorer and poorer due to inflation and cost of living crisis, we are bound to see more discontent from the common people.
Business, Finance & Economics
The price of copper reached a record high on the London market. Expected American tariffs triggered the rally.
Comment: the demand for energy will only go up and copper is one of the key elements to eg. expand the grid. It will be in high demand in the near future and this is probably only the first ATH we are witnessing.
Trump said he would nominate a new Fed chair early next year, after teasing Hassett for close to a week.
Comment: Trump is anxious to see the rates down. By playing the nomination game a bit longer, he is distracting the market, which seems to like the new choice.
After fining X, the European Commission opened an antitrust probe into Meta over its integration of Meta AI into WhatsApp.
Comment: the EU is furious with the US so it attempts to extract money out of American corporations.
Wrap up
And that’s all for today. Next up on the schedule are predictions for 2026 as well as something on the new National Security Strategy.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.