Have you tried listening to Russian or Chinese propaganda? No? Shame on you. After all you listen to western propaganda every single day. Some people would get their brains fried instantly by the mere dissonance, but if you are here I hope you are better than that.
If you are a careful observer, the recent jobs data from the US must have caught your eye. The fakery in economic data reached absurd levels, at least on par with what we’ve been told about China. Yet you are somehow supposed to trust western sources. LOL.
As I usually preach, all news is propaganda. You need to think for yourself. That’s why here I post unbiased news and explicitly state if I personally doubt any piece of news, or if something written is my opinion or theory. But that’s mine. You can have yours. And I will be happy if you disagree with me on merit. Hit that subscribe button and post a comment on anything you disagree with. That’s how we push closer to the truth.
Weekly Outlook
All in all this was a slow week. At least comparatively. We’e been used to weekly massive developments so it’s no shocker that a more peaceful week feels slower. But nonetheless, quite a lot has happen that is worthy of noticing.
US Inc.
This week in US Inc. was all about the economy. The gist of it will be commented later on, but what is worth mentioning here is that after a disastrous revision of jobs data, Donald Tump decided to fire the head of America’s Bureau of Labour Statistics, Erika McEntarfer. Not for posting bad preliminary numbers, but supposedly for fake revisions (sic!). I’ve already posted my opinion on the economic data coming out of the US, now we should only brace for the worse…
But moving form quasi-domestic issues, Trump is now visibly unhappy with Putin and the general Russian regime, as he order two nuclear subs to be positioned in the striking distance of Russia. This comes after another threats from Medvedev that didn’t sit well with Trump. The media made all the fuss about it, but realistically, nuclear subs are deployed at all times to allow for constant nuclear capability so it’s not such a big news overall. It’s just a change from soft stance of Biden administration.
The Americas
Finally some news from the Americas. Nayib Bukele made it and can remain in power forever. The legislative assembly voted to abolish presidential term limits. Some can call it authoritarianism, but the truth is that he made El Salvador safe and many want him to stay in power. Democracy is not a perfect system (and neither is authoritarianism).
Asia
I think the news of the week in Asia an the Pacific was the massive earthquake of 8.8 magnitude that hit the ocean near Russia, but made waves up to Hawaii. Japan was also hit, but early warning systems saved most from harm in every geography.
Other news are geopolitical. While Cambodia-Thailand conflict died out quickly, it’s hardly over for the region. But outside these borders, a lot has happened.
For once, there is a growing tension around Russia selling oil to India. The US pressures India with tariffs to abandon the trade, but with no success. India is committed to cheap oil to be frank no one can blame them for it. Even Europe buys Russian gas.
Lastly in the region, the Taiwanese president tried to meet with Trump ,however he denied being cautious of the upcoming Chinese summit later this year. Bad sign for the Taiwanese president who is now in the minority opposing the Chinese influence.
Middle East & Africa
After the botched ceasefire talks, the region is once again on fire. Now all the talk is around aid. To be honest that’s a boring topic for me. Not that the aid is not important, it just doesn’t solve the problem. Hamas is now saying that it won’t disarm without a guarantee of an independent Palestinian state and that it wants to work with the international organizations to provide aid. A true clusterfuck of issues with no resolution.
Outside of Israeli issues, Azerbaijan began exporting natural gas to Syria. More and more countries are normalizing now relations with the country. However, the gas will flow through Turkey, strengthening their position in the region.
Europe
After last week’s drama around Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies, they went swiftly back to independence and took no time to resume work (sic!). There is now a big bribery case against some MP and several other officials.
No opinion on that one, but at the same time Russia continues to heavily strike Ukraine across its whole territory. However, it doesn’t really translate to territorial gains. However, the overall index of Russian offensive has gone significantly up and t is something I’ll be watching closely now:
Outside of Ukraine, after France, Britain is the next state to recognize a Palestine state soon, unless Israel agrees to a ceasefire and a two state solution.
When it comes to the economy, the French prime minister hated on the EU trade deal marking it a dark day for the bloc. If you ask me, countries like France and Germany will negotiate their own exceptions for their industry while the weaker states like Poland will be left with the deal as it is.
Lastly, the EU blocked Italy’s plan to process asylum applications offshore. In a suicidal decision, the European Court of Justice wants to block Italy from transferring migrants to Albania. This is massively bearish on the European migrant strategy if you ask me… but I’m moving out of the EU anyway in the next couple of months.
Business, Finance & Economics
Business and economy were the talking point of the week. First of all, the Fed decided to keep the rates steady. Trump was furious but there is nothing he can do about it. On the one hand the economy grew, but on the other, jobs creation was very weak after the revisions. If you ask me, I don’t trust any economic data out of the US anymore… sad but true. After the jobs revision that cut made jobs by 90% there is simply nothing to be done. And even now rates cuts are not that probable:
But from other news here, OPEC decided to increase output once again. The rationale was steady global economic output, but overall it seems that these countries have some other agenda in mind, to be deciphered by me. Deep dives will be plenty once I’m out of the research phase. The whole move out of the EU makes things more scattered, but for all the right reasons. I’m close to closing all the issues and the move is now 99% sure for early October!
Tariffs
August 1st came and so did the tariffs. some steepy like 35% on some imports from Canada, other more lenient like 15% from Europe. Others more strict like 39% on Switzerland, including watches. However, some countries still face lowering.
Mexico for one is still negotiating, as is some of America. Also the extension with China is in place so all the comm bros are in peace.
However, some imports are permanently raised. Like 50% on Brazil or copper. However, even here there are some vast exception. Ask
as he was the first to highlight it to me!There was also a trade deal with South Korea, also facing 15% tariffs. Besides some exceptions, Jamieson Greer, America’s trade representative, said that America’s tariff rates are pretty much set.
Wrap up
And that’s all for the week. Be patient for the next deep dives as issues are complex. But worry not, it will all be worth it.
For now stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.
Some commentary suggesting that OPEC is trying to attack US shale.