Global Outlook: Flexing
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 2/16/26
Welcome to the new week! Today the focus is on Iran and Ukraine as politicians gathered for Munich Security Conference to talk big words. Supposedly they were talking Greenland behind closed doors, but the real talks are only tomorrow in Geneva - both Ukraine and Iran will be discussed.
We have plenty to comment on, get up to speed with the world.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
It’s been a busy week in the US with many events having major repercussions for the future. It’s also been a very strange week on Polymarket.
The US government entered into a partial government shutdown over DHS funding negotiations. It is looking to be at least 10 days long as Senate take a break.
Comment: it is no shocker that Republicans and Democrats fight over the DHS funding, as this is the deprtment responsible for curbing migration and deporting illegla aliens. We can expect these negotiations to be hard as Trump is trying to figure out his strategy for the midterms. What is also shocking here is this Polymarket resultion, that happened only because the webiste use as the sole informaiton source for a resolution was not updated. Markets probably should have secondary sources to avoid such situations.
Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, announced the end of the immigration agents operation in Minnesota after more than 2 months. Homan said the operation was a great success.
Comment: it was anything but a success. Public opinion has turned even more against Trump, 2 Americans are dead and migrants are still largely in the US. Amid the DHS funding negotiaitons, Trump needs to find a better and more compelling way to deal with illegal immigrants. Can he do it though? I’m not sure.
Howard Lutnick admitted that he visited Epstein’s island with his family in 2012 in a congressional heairng.
Comment: as it is more and more obvious that Epstein was a fixer, more and more high-profile people are implicated. Lutnick shouldn’t really be pressured to leave the administration, unless a more direct evidence of his wrongdoing emerges.
FAA closed and then proceeded to quickly reopen skies over El Paso in Texas as Trump claimed that cartel dornes breached American airspace. But other sources said it was a test of anti-drone technology.
Comment: the move surely made some of think US action on Mexican cartels is coming soon, but the fast reopening prevented any large market swings. And despite strong rhetoric, I am aligned with the market odds here:
In a symbolic gesture, the House of Representatives voted in favor of ending the national emergency that Trump invoked to impose tariffs on Canadian imports last year.
Comment: even if it somehow went through the senate, Trump would veto it and that’s the last we’d ever hear about the issue.
Trump is repealing the Environmental Protection Agency’s “endangerment finding”, a scientific judgment from 2019 which stated that greenhouse-gas emissions pose a risk to public health. The ruling has allowed the government to regulate eg. car emissions.
Comment: everything and anything to find the nuggets of growth as supply chains struggle.
The Americas
It was also an eventful week in the Americas as Trump’s agenda for the western hemisphere takes shape.
Air Canada cancelled all flights to Cuba after the country said it would not be able to supply international airlines with aviation fuel. The Trump administration has enforced an oil blockade on the island.
Additionally, organizers indefinitely postponed Cuba’s annual cigar festival, previously used to raise funds for Cuban healthcare system, due to the fuel blockade.
Comment: Cuba will fall, it’s just a matter of time.
American forces seized 2 tankers in the Indian Ocean that had carried Venezuelan oil. The US is still controlling who Venezuela can send oil to.
Comment: it’s mostly performative at this point.
Mark Carney supposedly held a positive conversation with Trump after POTUS threatened to block the opening of the Gordie Howe Internaitonal Bridge linking Ontario with Michigan. Carney pointed out that Canada paid for the construction of the bridge which used American steel.
Comment: Trump will toy with Canada as trade deal negotiations approach (USMCA July 1st renegotiation).
CK Hutchison threatened legal action against Maersk should the firm take control of two ports at either side of the Panama Canal - after last month’s supreme court case, the government said a Maersk affiliate would temporairly take over the management of the port.
Comment: no one cares about these threats, I’m a bit surprised they even made the news considering that nothing will ocme out of it. Neither Panamian nor US nor British nor London courts will side with CK.
Asia
A quiet week in Asia after shocking elections in the previous week.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party won the first election in the country since protesters toppled Sheikh Hasina in 2024. The party won 204 out of 300 seats in the parliament. BNP has vowed to fight graft and preserve freedom of speech.
Comment: combined with a new trade deal, this is interesting. More in tariff section.
Middle East & Africa
It was another week of posturing, strongly-worded statements and equipment movement in the Middle East.
Netanyahu met with Trump, but per his words nothing definitive was reached during the meeting (only some directional understanding it seems). However, later on, Trump announced he had sent USS Gerald Ford to deploy near Iran, the second aircraft carrier engaged in the possible operation.
All of this comes as the US and Iran are getting ready for talks on Tuesday in Geneva.
Comment: despite all the negative press, I think the meetings go fairly well as subject-matter experts will now be part of the negotiations. We may be in for a massive repricing here:
Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem left his roles as chair and chief executive of DP World, an Eirati logistics giant, after his associations with Epstein came to light i the newest batch of released documents.
Comment: and so the repercussions resonate all over the world; a few people will lose their jobs, some may be prosecuted and the world will move on.
US armed forces carried out a series of strikes against the Islamic State in Syria over the past 2 weeks. CENTCOM said the strikes were in retaliation for an ambush back in December that killed 2 American soldiers and an American civil interpreter.
Comment: expected, but mostly inconsequential. Syria is no longer a threat / Iran ally.
Botswana which is a leading diamond producer unveiled tax hikes to offset sales drop and a budget deficit - year by year, lab grown diamonds are getting increasingly popular.
Comment: diamonds are a fake industry, I do hope lab-grown alternatives will push out “real diamonds”.
Europe
An interesting week on the old continent as Ukraine peace negotiations intensify amid Munich Security Conference, where last year JD Vance bashed European leaders.
Merz said that the post-war world order is no more as he opened the Munich Security Conference. The event had several important speeches, mainly from Marco Rubio, who said that the US and Europe belong together and have common civilisational bonds. While he also criticized deindustrialization and mass migration, it was seen as an attempt to bring Europe closer.
Ursula von der Leyen was reassured by Rubio’s words, but she said that some lines cannot be uncorssed. She emphasised Europe striving for independence. Keir Starmer, who is on the verge of being ousted, added that Europe developed bad habits under American security umbrella and now needs to break them. In the meantime, Kaja Kallas issued some strong words that other countries look up to European nations.
Lastly, Gavin Newsom said that Trump is temporary in an attempt to lay ground for his 2028 campaign.
Comment: the conference was a whole lot of talking that as usual is translated to very little action. I’ve been saying that Europe needs to change it ways since I started PROPHET NOTES, and here we are, 2 years later, saying the same on conferences. Nothing really worthy happened at the event, outside of Gavin Newsom ensuring us that he is seeking the emocratic nomination in 2028.
Herman Halushchenko, a former Ukrainian minister, was arrested while trying to leave the country in connection to the $100 million embezzelment case from last year.
Comment: rutine cleaning.
Zelensky said he needs 2 months of ceasefire to hold an election, while Russia agreed to give 1 day to conduct it.
Comment: the usual posturing before another round of negotiaitons in Geneva (also tomorrow). The momentum is there though and I see a path towards 14-30 day ceasefire to conduct the election if needed. But the path is trecherous and narrow - Polymarket didn’t move at all on the news.
Anas Anwar, the Scottish Labour leader, urged Starmer to resign. And shortly after, Britain’s top civil servant, Sir Chris Wormald, was forced out by the Labour government after barely a year in the job. He is the shortest-serving cabinet secretary since the post was created in 1916.
Comment: Starmer barely clung to power for now, but as I said on the previous episode of PROPHET TALKS, he has plenty of occasions to lose the job in the near future, considering that the wolves are out.
Italian government passed a bill authorizing the use of naval blockades to stop migrants entering the country.
Comment: a massive win for ocnservative Giorgia Meloni. And a first country in Europe (I belive so) authorizing the use of force to prevent migrants from approaching their land. Good move if you ask me, should increase her ratings.
Karol Nawrocki told in an interview that Poland should work towards joining the nuclear project due to Russia’s agressive stance.
Comment: sure, Poland couldn’t build a nuclear power plant in 35 years despite 2 projects being approved and one even started the construction. Current Polish elites are incapable of a project on such a grand scale.
Switzerland will hold a referendum in June on capping its 9.1 million population at 10 million.
Comment: while the regulation is mostly aimed at curbing mass migration, it is an extremely stupid idea to codify a population cap…
WhatsApp said Russia tried to fully block its services as part of a crackdown on foreign tech. Other Meta platforms are already banned in Russia, but WhatsApp held steady as millions of Russians were using it - now Russia wants them to swith to a domestic platform, MAX.
Comment: pretty logical for team east to run its own tech stack.
Business, Finance & Economics
Retail sales in America were flat in December, despite the holiday season being in full swing. The figures are not adjusted for inflation.
Comment: weather + inflation + CoL crisis takes its toll, sometimes you can’t fake it till you make it.
Pershing Square (Bill Ackman’s fund) disclosed a 10% stake in Meta. Ackamn is betting on Meta being undervalued due to heavy AI spending that didn’t immediately translate to having top LLM.
Comment: Ackman must believe the tech and expertize is there to still benefit from the AI boom. He’s been known to make big bets that go spectacularly right and wrong. I will be watching this play out.
Alphabet raised $31.5 billion in a bond sale this week to fiannce AI investments. It also incuded a 100-year bond in a rare move.
Comment: Alphabet is flush with cash as far as I know so this move is interesting - long-term bond issuance means they lock in current interest rates. In a sense they must believe that future interest rates will hold steady at minimum but more likely rise, otheriwise they’d bet on the short term debt.
Paramount sweetened its offer for Warner Bros. by offering to pay $2.8 billion termination fee over Netflix offer along with offering to cover $1.5 billion in fees related to debt refinancing. There is also a penalty clause for not closing the deal in time, $650 million each quarter.
Comment: it’s financial history made before our eyes. Books will be written about the battle to control the new world of entertainemnt between Netflix and Paramount. Barbarrians at the Gate of our times.
Tariffs
America and Taiwan officially signed a trade agreement - America will reduce tariffs on Taiwan to 15%, same as Japan and South Korea. Taiwan will lower tariffs on American goods and buy billions in energy and aircrafts.
Comment: payment for defense.
Bangladesh made a trade deal with the US setting 19% tariff on most exports. Additionally, some colthing made with American cotton will enter America duty free.
Comment: seems like Bangladesh is aligning with the US.
Wrap up
And that’s all for the week. I will be working on the Ukraine deep dive for this week + I’m planning to look a bit more into SCOTUS ruling on tariffs.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.