Global Outlook: On Edge
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 4/20/26
Welcome to another week! This one has the potential to be historic as delegations from the US and Iran are due to meet in Islamabad to iron out the last details of a deal. That being said tensions are high and anything can happen in the next 2-5 days.
I have my own thesis on what is going on that you can read here:
But outside of Iran, plenty is happening around the world - from Cuba, to Europe, to Asia; countries continue their business and react to the unfolding situation.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
The US is busy with the Iran conflict as its resolution will impact domestic policy and the upcoming midterms.
Scott Bessent said Trump’s tariffs would be restored by July after they were struck down by the SCOTUS ruling in February.
Comment: despite the ruling, some of the tariffs are still in effect and countries are expected to engage with the US to sign new deals. Once the Iran war is resolved, we will hear more about the tariff narrative, especially in connection to the upcoming trip to China.
Trump nominated Erica Schwartz, a former deputy surgeon-general and retired rear admiral, to lead CDC. If confirmed, she would be responsible for tackling the largest measles outbreak in decades.
Comment: before the Iran war took most of my capacity, I was actively tracking the measles markets. Since then the forecast decreased, but thousands of cases is still a lot. Erica is looking at a tough job, especially with anti-vaccine RFK Jr. in charge of the Health Department.
The Americas
While all eyes are on Iran, Trump is already hinting at Cuba being the next target of his military operations.
With Trump’s increasingly combatant rhetoric around Cuba, Brazil, Mexico and Spain issued a joint statement expressing deep concern over the serious humanitarian crisis on the island. They also pledged to send more aid to the blockaded country.
Comment: while it is unclear whether Cuba will clash with the US, or a simple deal will suffice, there are definitely expectations of some kind of a final showdown. Trump is eager to control Cuba, as is Marco Rubio, whose parents escaped the Cuban regime. However, contrary to Iran, this should be a walk in the park for the US.
Spain and Brazil signed 15 agreements covering critical minerals, telecoms and AI during talks of both countries’ leaders.
Comment: Lula is trying his best to build an anti-Trump coalition among LatAm and Spanish / Portuguese speaking countries as he faces a tight presidential race with Jair Bolsonaro’s son later this year. It will be one of the most consequential elections this year.
Asia
While there were no new restriction announced in Asia last week, the continent still grapples with the unfolding energy crisis.
India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party failed to pass a constitutional amendment that would have increased women’s representation in parliament and expanded its lower house from 543 seats to about 850. The legislation would have reserved a third of the seats in the enlarged chamber for women. The opposition accused the party of trying to redraw the electoral map in its favor.
Comment: I’m not well-versed in Indian politics so no proper comment here.
North Korea fired several ballistic missiles into its eastern waters. It’s the fourth time this month.
Comment: North Korea is making sure the US remembers it is a constant threat to its posture in East Asia. Small, but effective provocations to keep the US forces stretched.
Middle East & Africa
Here is where the main action is taking place.
Last week, the US blockade of Iranian ports took effect as Trump is looking to pressure IRGC into concessions.
Over the week, talks were teased, but till now all we have is a one sided announcement from the US on its delegation arriving in Islamabad today. Iranians are yet to officially confirm their attendance.
The Strait of Hormuz was announced to be opened briefly, only to be closed minutes later as the internal conflict in Iranian leadership shows itself to the world. Despite the Lebanon ceasefire in place, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in response to the US blockade. Some ships were under fire from both sides, including an Iranian and Chinese tanker, as well as a container ship.
Trump also repeatedly touted progress in talks, indicating that minor excursions are part of the negotiation, rather than a deliberate escalation aimed at resuming the hostilities.
Comment: I’ve already described my thinking in the weekly portfolio update linked at the top of the article. I think the next 2-5 days are critical, with current developments indicating intense negotiations, rather than a breakdown of talks.
A 10 day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced with Trump inviting both countries’ leaders to the White House for talks on permanent cessation of hostilities. Both sides welcomed the truce, but Netanyahu said IDF will remain ready at Lebanon’s southern border.
Trump also urged Hezbollah to restrain itself, while its leaders responded with a message aiming to restrain Israel. Later on, Trump prohibited Israel from launching attacks on Lebanon in one of his many Truth Social posts.
Comment: despite the effort, chances of Hezbollah disarmament remain low. Since this is a non-negotiable demand from Israel ,I’m curious to see how the matter can resolve beyond a short pause…
Europe
Events in Europe revolved mostly around the new Hungarian prime minister.
Peter Magyar, the new Hungarian prime minister, pledged closer ties with the EU and promised to unblock the €90bn loan to Ukraine in his first speech. He also promised to resolve the Druzhba pipeline dispute with Ukraine, hoping the country can repair it soon.
Comment: with ceasefire proving to be a remote possibility, Ukraine is in dire need of the loan to continue its effort. When it comes to Magyar, some voices are too hopeful as he is a former long-term Fidesz member that broke ties with the Orban’s party after his wife was sacked from her judicial high post.
Contrary to developments in Hungary, Bulgaria looks set to elect a Russia-friendly government.
Comment: early results indicate the pro-Russian Rumen Radev will lead Bulgaria, sustaining opposition to Ukraine war funding after Orban’s defeat.
Peter Mandelson failed background security checks before he became the ambassador to America. Mandelson was sacked late last year due to his connections to Jeffrey Epstein.
Comment: with the news out, chances of Starmer not being prime minister increased again as his government is grappling with various issues.
Business, Finance & Economics
Not a lot of news in the realm of business.
Blue Origin launched a rocket with a reused booster for the first time.
Comment: Jeff Bezos is trying to compete with Elon Musk and SpaceX, but for now he is months, or even years, behind. That being said, the gap is narrower than a few years ago, when Bezos was only starting his space exploration venture.
Wrap up
That’s all for today. I will be watching the next round of Iran negotiations closely and I expect to do a commentary video tomorrow evening on the progress. Outside of that, a deep dive on Cuba is due, especially if we get a quick peace deal in the Middle East.
The pace of developments this year is staggering and the resulting chaos is proving to be a difficult forecasting environment. That being said, after close to 4 months of 2026, a clearer picture of the US modus operandi starts to emerge for me.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.