Global Outlook: Peace?
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 6/15/26
Welcome to another week! We seem to have peace, but do we really? It’s been a wild week with developments across geopolitics, tech and AI. At the same time, I’ve been on the Manifest conference where I met plenty of traders that I talk with on a daily basis online.
I’m planning to write something about my experience and observations so stay tuned. Now, since the article is already late, let’s get up to speed with the world.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
A federal judge ruled that Trump’s proposed $100,000 charge on new applications for H-1B visas in unlawful after several states sued the Trump admin post-fee announcement.
Comment: the fee was not being paid anyway. Just another useless battle…
The Pentagon added dozens of Chinese businesses to its list of firms that threaten national security. The list includes BYD, Alibaba and Baidu. As a result, these companies will be barred from doing business with America’s armed forces.
Comment: reporting claims that this action might complicate upcoming summits between Trump and Xi. However, the top firms mentioned already did little business with the armed forces.
Graham Platner became the Democratic candidate for the Senate in Maine after sweeping the primary, securing nearly 75% of the vote. He will now face the Republican incumbent, Susan Collins, in the midterms.
Comment: traders project that Platner has a decent chance in flipping the seat. This is one of the most important races as Democrats are trying to gain control of the Senate in the upcoming midterms.
Trump nominated Jay Clayton, one of New York’s top federal prosecutors, to be the next director of national intelligence. A former chairman of the SEC is considered a better candidate than the acting director Pulte, who received a lot of backlash in the recent weeks.
Comment: I don’t have anything in particular to say here as I’m not really familiar with Clayton.
The Americas
Trump said he was not looking to renew USMCA. Canada, Mexico and the US must extend the deal by July 1st or face annual reviews. Trump claimed that America does not need anything that Canada or Mexico produce (sic!).
Comment: USMCA was not the deal Trump was hoping to make when he exited NAFTA during his first term. However, saying that the US doesn’t need anything Canada or Mexico produce is a straight lie. Even such a simple resource as Canadian oil is necessary for US energy industry as crucial mixer to the US light-sweet oil. As I’ve repeatedly highlighted, Trump is just putting pressure on America’s trading partners to extract better terms. Looking at the situation now, I believe that he is looking to finally split the deal into 2 separate agreements, something he initially aimed to do.
Trump said that American armed forces had executed Hector Guerrero Flores, better known as Niño Guerrero, head of Tren De Aragua, a Venezuelan gang. Trump said that the airstrike had been coordinated with Venezuela.
Comment: mostly a PR win as it hardly disables the organization.
We had a presidential election run-off in Peru. The vote was extremely close, to the point where the leftist candidate, Roberto Sanchez, asked Keiko Fujimori, his right-wing rival to jointly request a recount. With close to 99% of the vote counted, Keiko is only 25,000 votes ahead.
Comment: while media presents the count as contested and controversial, traders are virtually sure Keiko will be the winner.
Asia
Pakistan said it killed at least 26 militants from Afghanistan in air strikes at the border. The Afghan Taliban disputed the account.
Comment: it’s a bit forgotten conflict amid all the tensions in the Middle East. But it does play a part in the grander scheme of things. Remember that Pakistan is the key mediator in the US-Iran war and it is hardly objective.
Indonesia’s central bank raised interest rates by 0.25 pp, to 5.5%, a week before its next scheduled meeting.
Comment: the rupiah fell a lot vs USD since the Iran war had started. The central bank is trying to protect the currency, but it can only do so much in the face of structural problems…
Seven people and two companies were charged over a fire at a housing complex in Hong Kong that killed 168 people in November. The defendants were involved in renovations of the buildings. The charges, including manslaughter and conspiracy to defraud, are the first to come out of a months-long inquiry into the blaze.
Comment: while not a very consequential global event, it will be an interesting case study. Initially, bamboo scaffolding was blamed for the spread of fire in an effort to ban it. I’m monitoring the case to showcase how a change in regulation can be forced by various groups of interest, in this case the producers of metal scaffolding.
A court in South Korea sentenced Yoon Suk Yeol, a former president, to 30 years in prison on charges related to sending drones into North Korea. Prosecutors argued Mr Yoon ordered the operation to provoke North Korea, giving him a pretext to declare martial law in December 2024.
Comment: in case you missed it, Koreans are making an example out of Yoon to prevent any future coups.
Middle East & Africa
It’s been a wild week in the Middle East. We started with strikes between Israel and Iran, that were a response to the violation of a ceasefire in Lebanon. While both sides quickly agreed to stop them, the US launched strikes on Iran shortly after, as tensions rose in the region.
The whole situation seemed to be escalating as neither side seemed to be ready to give up. We even ended up with Iranian strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain. However, as the weekend began, we started to hear of yet another imminent deal.
Many traders doubted the narrative, but we ended up with both sides announcing an agreement has been reached. We have an official signing ceremony scheduled for Friday. However, a series of issue persist.
On the one hand, we have an unresolved situation in Lebanon. Israel seems eager to continue its campaign there, in defiance of a supposed deal.
On the other hand, there still seems to be a lot of doubt about the Strait of Hormuz issue, despite Trump’s claims that it will be ope to all this week.
We are yet to hear the details of the presumed deal.
Comment: I’m writing an article on the current situation. I’ve already explored a “fake deal” scenario in my previous deep dives, but now it’s time to actually delve deeper into what it means for the future of this conflict, and the region.
Europe
Zelensky met with the leaders of Britain, France and Germany in London. After the meeting, they issued a joint statement on the ceasefire proposal that didn’t really differ from anything we’ve seen in the last year or so.
Comment: even this week’s G7 summit won’t really change anything. Only the continued strike campaign on Russian energy infra can force the situation to break out of the current stalemate.
Zelensky also said the army will raise wages and try to recruit more volunteer fighters from abroad. Monthly wages for most soldiers will rise by a third, to around $700, while frontline troops will receive about $7,000 a month.
Comment: since the European loan of €90 billion is on, Ukraine has the official funding to utilize in its defensive campaign. But the fact that recruitment is focused on foreigners indicates there is a real shortage of willing fighters that can impact negotiations a few months down the line.
Latvia’s defence ministry said NATO jets shot down a drone that entered the country’s airspace from Russia. Officials did not say whether it was Ukrainian or Russian.
Comment: both sides have their struggles. For me it means that we should see a new push to break the stalemate this summer. It remains to be seen if it’s a new front from the north to put pressure on Kiev, or an op to disrupt the NATO supply chains.
The EU proposed to ban all Russian soldiers who have served in Ukraine from entering the bloc. The move is part of a new round of sanctions to be voted on by member states.
Comment: the EU’s actions continue to show commitment to Ukraine, raising chances we will see Ukraine’s accession to the union eventually.
Anti-immigrant protest broke out in Belfast, Northern Ireland after a man was seriously injured in a stabbing by a Sudanese migrant. Police used water cannon to disperse rioters during a second night of unrest in Belfast. A crowd threw bricks, stones and bottles at officers trying to control anti-immigration demonstrations that had turned violent.
Comment: business as usual in the UK, I would say…
Keir Starmer appointed Dan Jarvis as Britain’s defense secretary, hours after John Healey resigned from the position. Mr Healey said that a planned increase in defense spending would fall well short of what the armed forces require.
Comment: the resignation from the Cabinet are a continued signal that Starmer is on his way out.
Britain’s economy shrank by 0.1% in April, its first monthly contraction since August, as the Iran war’s impact began to be felt. Output in the services sector fell by 0.2%, outweighing modest growth in manufacturing.
Comment: my thesis on the SOH closure having adverse effect on the global economy over the long-term is slowly starting to materialize.
Fidesz reelected Viktor Orban as its leader with the support of 729 of 737 delegates. Orban announced an organizational overhaul of the party in a response to the defeat in April’s election.
Comment: seems like our guy is not retiring after all. Hungarian politics will continue to be interesting for the foreseeable future.
Swiss voters rejected, by nearly 55% to 45%, a proposal to cap the country’s population at 10 million. The defeat is a blow to the anti-immigration Swiss People’s Party.
Comment: it went pretty much as traders expected it would.
World, Business, Finance & Economics
SpaceX raised $75 billion in the world’s biggest IPO. It ended Friday session valued at $2.1 trillion, making Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.
Comment: traders see a fair chance we could go even higher than that.
OpenAI filed for an IPO as well, trying to keep up pace with xAI, which is part of SpaceX and Anthropic, which filed for an IPO last week.
Comment: traders, however, are not so confident we will see the long-awaited IPO this year, with chances of one by the end of September only at 25%.
Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, a safeguarded Mythos-class model, only to have it banned by the US government days later. It came after Dario Amodei himself said that governments should be able to block public releases of some models if independent audits determine them to be too risky. How ironic, huh?
Comment: the US government deems Mythos-class model as national security risk and wants them to be available to US citizens only. I posted some of my thoughts here:
Wrap up
That’s all for today! I’m still on my trip in the California time zone so articles will be slightly delayed. However, I aim to publish a piece on the Iran deal, as well as some other trading thoughts this week.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.