Global Outlook: Peace?
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 4/13/26
I was definitely shocked when I woke up to ceasefire news on Wednesday morning. I really didn’t think Trump has it in himself, but here we are. And since it happened, there is a chance for an actual peace deal. We are 5 days into 2-week ceasefire and plenty can happen, including multiple negotiation rounds and even ceasefire extension.
For now we await market open and the news it will bring. And besides Iran war, there is plenty happening around the world. Only here you will get news put against prediction markets with commentary.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
It’s been an interesting week in the US.
Trump went against NATO following a meeting with Mark Rutte in Washington. Trump accused NATO of not being there for America when it needed them and threatened to leave the alliance again.
Comment: Trump might be seething, but NATO is essential to the US as it props up the military industrial complex through regular orders and allows the US to dictate foreign policy of its members. Even with recent comments traders give only 13% chance Trump leaves NATO.
The Democratic Republic of Congo reached an agreement with the Trump administration to receive migrants deported from America. The first people will arrive this month, including citizens of third countries.
Comment: these measures do little to alleviate the migrant problem in the US. The projected numbers of deportees stayed flat on the news, indicating that there are bigger problems than destination countries when it comes to deportations.
Artemis II mission ended safely with all astronauts returning healthy. NASA is planing further lunar missions, including the construction of a Moon base. Trump is also looking at Mars.
Comment: amid Cold War 2.0, is the new space race coming? Some people surely dream of a scenario from the Apple TV series For All Mankind. But regardless, it’s not coming anytime soon, with best case scenario being first moon landing in 2028.
The Americas
With all eyes on Iran, there are real developments being missed in Cuba.
Miguel Diaz-Canel is not resigning amid pressure from the US. Trump is conducting a naval blockade of the island while Russia is pledging help with energy.
Comment:
Asia
A rather quiet week in Asia.
New measures:
Some airlines reduced their flights, especially domestic Vietnam operators amid jet fuel shortage.
Thailand and Malaysia introduced stricter WFH measures in order to conserve fuel.
Comment: despite the ceasefire, the traffic through the strait is still close to 0, worsening the energy supply shock day by day. Last week many nations were hopeful, if we don’t get any progress this week expect more and stricter measures.
Middle East & Africa
It’s been a chaotic week in the Middle East.
We started the week with America attacked Kharg Island again, hitting an airport, a dock and an IRGC base. Israel matched the effort targeting railways and bridges.
We also had the big ultimatum that ended in a last minute 2-week ceasefire. Initially it was conditional on the Strait of Hormuz reopening and included Lebanon, but later on the Strait remained closed and Lebanon war is still raging on.
The ceasefire was fragile at the beginning (still is tbh) as Lebanon issue is important for Iran and Israel is unwilling to cease fire there.
The talks happened on Friday-Saturday in Islamabad, even as many doubted they will come to negotiate. JD Vance led the US team as both sides negotiated for 21 hours before calling it quits with no deal on the table. JD Vance left Islamabad shortly after the end. Reportedly, the nuclear issue, as well as Strait of Hormuz opening, are the two main points that are not aligned.
During the talks, 2 American destroyers passed through the Strait of Hormuz to begin a mine-clearing operation. The ships departed after warnings from Iran.
After the negotiations, which Trump said went well, Trump announced a total blockade of the strait starting today 10AM ET. He also said that most points were agreed on, but Iran failed to commit to no nuclear weapon. At the same time Iran accuses the US of failing to build enough trust.
Comment: this looks like escalation before deescalation. 21 hours of intense talks are rather bullish for peace as it is longer any other negotiation with Iran recently lasted. We should expect some good news before market open, as usual. The question is how good of a news we can get and if it will lead to peace. For now traders are not optimistic looking at chances of permanent peace deal.
Netanyahu said Israel would begin talks with Lebanon with the strikes on Hezbollah continuing until further notice.
Comment: Trump is trying to reign in Israel, for now only mildly successfully. It remains to be seen if he manages to do it to the full extent. However, for now, Iran seems ok with the small offensive continuing.
Europe
It was a historic week in Europe.
Ukraine continued to bomb Russian energy infrastructure, hitting an oil terminal in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and an offshore drilling platforms in the Caspian Sea owned by Lukoil amid rising fears of global energy shortage. There was also a short ceasefire announced on the Orthodox Easter.
Comment: for now nothing indicates that either side is ready to stop. We must see what late spring brings in terms of new offensives.
Starmer was forced to shelve legislation ceding sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Trump strongly criticized the deal as Diego Garcia is one of the islands.
Comment: Diego Garcia is vital to American power projection. I don’t expect the deal to be ratified any time soon.
Orban lost the election in Hungary, ceding power for the first time since 2010. Tisza, led by ex-Fidesz Peter Magyar is projected to win the supermajority.
Comment: a stunning victory wis massive turnout. Just wait till people learn that Magyar is also right-wing and even tougher on immigration than Orban. His only difference is supposed lack of corruption (and lack of Russian connections), which remains to be seen.
Business, Finance & Economics
The US annual inflation reached 3.3% in March, up from 2.4% in February on rapidly rising energy prices.
Comment: the war has global consequences and the US will not escape them. Sure, it will be better off than most Asian countries, but everyone will be worse off.
Intel announced it would join Musk’s Terafab project, partnering with Tesla, SpaceX and xAI to help Musk manufacture his own chips for robotics and data centers in space.
Comment: Musk seems to be pumping the upcoming SpaceX IPO. Additionally, since Intel is partly government-controlled, it indicates that he is still in Trump’s favors. Important for the upcoming midterms.
Wrap up
That’s all for today. This week will be chaotic and volatile, but I’m cautiously optimistic we might get good news. Otherwise the global economy would really struggle and it is almost impossible to assess the havoc we would need to live through.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.