Global Outlook: Push & Pull
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 6/1/26
Welcome to another week! It feels like the Trump admin is all in on teasing us as there is no progress whatsoever. The imminent Iran deals that never come, alien disclosure that fell short of a promise; pick your poison, Trump will tease you regardless of your issue.
Outside of US politics, the week was full of developments in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as some updates from Asia and Europe. Check it out and get ahead!
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
The US is mired by its usual problems of illegal immigration and questionable foreign policy.
Ken Paxton defeated John Cornyn in a Republican primary to contest Cornyn’s seat in the senate in the midterms. A late endorsement from Trump helped Paxton secure a win.
Comment: Paxton is considered a controversial figure. We’ll see how much of a problem that proves to be in the coming months. Traders have him as a slight favorite, with 60% chance for victory.
Pete Hegseth attended the Shangri-La Dialogue where he said that America’s relations with China were better than they’ve been in many years. He also said that China’s historic military build-up meant that the US allies ought to spend more on defense. Additionally, America, Australia and Britain agreed to develop aquatic drones to protect subsea cables at the conference.
Comment: performative yapping if you ask me. Nothing groundbreaking was presented or said at the conference.
A federal judge temporarily blocked the Trump admin from implementing a $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund to pay alleged victims of government lawfare. A group of challengers argued that it would unfairly benefit people claiming to have been harmed by Democratic, but not Republican, administrations.
Comment: the fund is looking at a mountain of opposition. Traders see less than 20% chance it will pay a Jan 6 rioter anytime soon.
The Trump administration teased non-human intelligence confirmation by publishing an aliens.gov website, only to have it deal with illegal immigration.
Comment: the Trump admin is looking to put as much attention as possible on the issues it is sure to win on. However, with so many problems around the world, and the resulting inflation, I doubt this is the way to salvage the midterms.
The Americas
The World Cup is coming.
Mexico agreed to act as the base for Iran’s soccer team during the World Cup. The tournament is jointly hosted by America, Canada and Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum said that America did not want the Iranian team to stay overnight in the US.
Comment: Iran is hardly a favorite to win the World Cup, but its presence is surely interesting amid the Iran war.
Bolivia’s centrist president, Rodrigo Paz, said he would cut his salary in half to appease protesters calling for his resignation. Other members of his government are also going to see their salaries cut. His government has faced weeks of demonstrations calling for an end to austerity measures. Paz insists they are necessary to fix public finances.
Comment: traders don’t really expect Paz to go out soon.
Asia
Some scattered news from Asia.
At least 55 people were killed and dozens were injured by an explosion in a village in a region of Myanmar controlled by Ta’ang National Liberation Army. It’s one of the most powerful armed groups opposing the country’s ruling military junta. TNLA blamed explosives used in mining.
Comment: the war in Myanmar continues despite no one looking. It is simply not a priority to handle for anyone. For now, all the interest groups are fine with continued hostilities.
On the Shangri-La Dialogue, India said it had finalized a sale to Vietnam of its supersonic, long-range BrahMos missiles.
Comment: Vietnam is a rising star in SEA.
Japan’s population fell by 3 million between 2020 and 2025, the sharpest decline on record. The country has returned to its population of the late 1980s.
Comment: Japan is clearly headed in a difficult direction.
Middle East & Africa
The Iran war peace deal roller-coaster continues in the Middle East.
During the last weeks, we oscillated between small US and Iranian strikes and an imminent peace deal.
Both sides criticized each other while claiming their strikes are for defensive purposes only.
Iran began restoring internet access after an 88-day digital blackout.
Throughout the week, the Trump admin was teasing an imminent deal, including JD Vance saying that the deal was very close.
Donald Trump ultimately went into the Situation Room to make his final decision, only to reject the deal.
Masoud Pezeshkian is rumored to have resigned from presidency, citing outsized IRGC influence in the country. However, Iran is denying the rumors.
Comment: as usual, more of my insights on the Iran war are available in the recent portfolio update and the video I made over the weekend:
The IDF said it has intensified attacks on Lebanon, after Netanyahu ordered an escalation of its offensive against Hezbollah.
The IDF ordered the evacuation of much of southern Lebanon as it carried out strikes on the city of Tyre. Hezbollah said it had engaged with Israeli troops “at point-blank range” near the town of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah.
The escalation continues to this day.
Comment: as the Middle Eastern peace efforts fail, it is expected that Israel will continue its operations in Lebanon for the foreseeable future.
Netanyahu said he directed Israel’s armed forces to seize at least 70% of Gaza. Additionally, Hamas confirmed the death of Mohammed Odeh, its new military leader, in an Israeli air strike on Gaza.
Comment: traders see a decent chance of a proper offensive starting. If the Iran war negotiations take too long, I also expect Gaza to fire up again.
Ghana’s parliament passed a bill making it illegal to say you are LGBT+ or to have gay sex. A similar bill was also passed in 2024, but the then president refused to sign it. The current president, John Mahama, has said that he will make this one law.
Comment: Ghana seems to be focusing on everything, but the important things… But maybe Trump will appreciate the move.
Europe
The situation in Ukraine seems to be heating up.
Russia warned foreigners to leave Kyiv ahead of systemic strikes targeting defense facilities. It is a response to a deadly Ukrainian attack on a student dorm in the Luhansk region. Vladimir Putin also signed a law to allow his country’s army to intervene abroad to help Russian citizens.
Separately, Zelensky appealed to Trump and America’s Congress for more Patriot PAC-3 missiles and other air defense system to counter missile attacks by Russia.
Last week, Russian drone crossed into Romania and struck a block of flats in Galati, a city near the border with Ukraine, according to the Romanian defense ministry. Two people were injured.
Comment: the Ukraine war is heating up, while many experts forecast a big summer offensive from Russia. I’ll keep monitoring the situation.
Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia in protest at its ally’s attempts to establish closer ties with the EU.
Comment: one consequence of the war of attrition in Ukraine is Russia losing its power projection abilities across Central Asia.
The EU has agreed to unlock €16 billion ($19 billion) in frozen funds to Hungary after a meeting with Peter Magyar, the country’s new prime minister. The bloc had withheld financing due to the rule-of-law violations of Viktor Orban’s government.
Comment: same situation happened in Poland in 2023. Once an EU-favored government was formed, all funds were unlocked, despite no changes in the rule-of-law or any other legislative change. Expect Magyar to run his government more in line with EU mandate, despite his right-wing agenda.
Business, Finance & Economics
A wide array of business news.
America’s PCE index rose by 3.8% y/y in April, as the Iran war pushed up food and energy costs. It’s the biggest increase since May 2023. Additionally, revised GDP figures showed that America’s economy grew by an annualized 1.6% in Q1.
Comment: and they say that the Strait of Hormuz is not important…
Huawei said it was 5 years away from producing 1.4 nanometer chips that would compete with TSMC.
Comment: amid sanctions and tariffs, China is trying to produce high-tech in-house. Recently China also replicated an ASML machine, crucial to chip production, shocking the world.
Anthropic secured $65 billion in funding at a valuation of $965 billion. It was valued at just $380 billion in February.
Comment: AI bubble continues to grow.
A New Glenn rocket made by Blue Origin exploded on its launchpad in Florida. The firm was testing the vessel’s engine; no one was harmed.
Comment: stuff like that happens with rockets.
Wrap up
That’s all for today! I’ll publish my deep dive on the post-war Middle East this week. It’s going to be a spicy one so make sure to subscribe!
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.