Global Outlook: Slowly, But Surely
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 12/22/25
Welcome back to another week! As end of year festivities are nearing we shall hear a bit less about global affairs, and more about your uncle’s recent investments. But jokes aside, lack of new developments leaves us with a full plate anyway.
We finish 2025 with Ukraine war in full swing, Thailand-Cambodia war gaining steam and a possible regime change operation in Venezuela. Next year we are poised to see even more developments, but more on that in my 10 predictions for 2026 coming soon.
For now, let’s see the world as it is now, 9 days before a year that could easily trump 2025 as the most wild in a long while.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
Democrats criticized Trump over heavily redacted Epstein files release, that is also spread over several weeks despite the bill citing December 19th as a deadline.
Comment: expect Democrats to slow-roll the topic for months during the midterms campaign.
Senate approved National Defense Authorization Act and sent it to Trump, who signed it. It permits $901 billion in spending for the fiscal year 2026. It also reauthorizes $400 million in aid for Ukraine.
Comment: ultimately Trump cannot do much without Congress when it comes to foreign policy strategy.
In a prime time TV national address, Trump boasted about his accomplishments, but the most important part of the speech was announcing a $1,776 warrior dividend for all active duty military.
Comment: wonder why he felt he needs to pay soldiers a Christmas bonus, huh?
The suspect in the Brown University shooting was found dead, reportedly taking his own life. He is also suspected of a MIT professor shooting.
Comment: no comment here.
The Trump administration expanded its travel ban, adding Burkina Faso, Laos, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, South Sudan and Syria to the list. 15 other countries face additional restrictions.
Comment: migration will continue to be heavily guarded, also on the ally / adversary axis.
The Americas
Trump ordered a complete blockade of oil tankers under sanctions that leave or enter Venezuela as the country is surrounded by the largest Armada in South Ameirca’s history.
The administration also announced it boarded 2 tankers trying to breach the blockade and is in pursuit of a third one since.
Comment: the US continues to escalate in the region, hoping it can force Maduro out without a serious military engagement. But hope is for the hopeless and they know it - otherwise, what’s the point of a warrior dividend.
Asia
Thailand and Cambodia agreed to resume ceasefire talks on Wednesday, however they shall reflect realities on the ground, per the Thai side.
Comment: Thailand continues to maintain a strong posture and is unwilling to compromise. I don’t see the new talks resulting in a quick n’ easy ceasefire.
Korea Zinc, the world’s largest zinc smelter, announced it was partnering with the Trump admin to build a $7.4 billion plant in Tennessee. It is supposed to go live by 2029 and produce zinc, copper and other materials.
Comment: the US is trying to reshore key industries. One small plant is only a tiny part of the effort that will take years to complete. And plenty can happen by 2029. The US is late to the game, but it doesn’t hurt to try and play catch-up.
North Korea rebuked a Japanese official suggesting that the country should possess nukes, saying it should be prevented at any cost.
Comment: non-proliferation will be more and more difficult as countries are urged to spend more on defense. For many smaller countries facing a larger adversary, a nuke is a logical step forward for effective deterrence. Seemingly there are talks in Japan, I know there are high-level discussions in Poland (only ideas for now) and I wouldn’t be shocked if Germany tries to get one.
A Pakistani court sentenced Imran Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, to 17 years in prison. This time, the former prime minister and his wife were convicted of buying luxury gifts at heavily discounted prices, causing losses to the state.
Comment: this is what happens in Pakistan when you go against the military, even with a mystic by your side it seems.
Middle East & Africa
Netanyahu plans to brief Trump on options for new strikes on Iran as ISrael believes Iran is rebuilding its ballistic missile program.
Comment: I don’t think there is willingness in either, the administration or Pentagon, to strike Iran now. Even with a ballistic missile program ,the country is a shadow of its former self for the foreseeable future. That being said, Israel definitely didn’t finish the job back in the summer and is surely keen to strike again.
Lebanon is reportedly close to completing the disarmament of Hezbollah south of the Litani river in southern Lebanon. They have time till the end of they year per the ceasefire agreement.
Comment: in pains, but it will happen as Hezbollah can no longer enjoy fresh deliveries.
The Rwanda backed M23 militia agreed to withdraw from Uvira, a city in eastern Congo, on a request by Trump. However, they are still yet to do it.
Comment: nothing to add for now, will focus on Africa more next year.
Europe
Europe and the US reportedly agreed (in principle, so nothing concrete) to provide Ukraine with NATO-like security guarantees.
At the same time Europe agreed to loan Ukraine €90 billion, to be repaid only if Russia pays reparations to Ukraine.
Especially since Putin called European leaders “little pigs” who want to profit from Russia’s collapse.
Comment: the peace effort at this point is a farce since Ukraine is now fully funded till at least mid 2027. Putin is also happy to achieve his maximalist demands on the battleground, so we will see them continue to fight for the foreseeable future.
Ukraine’s intelligence agency said it successfully used for the first time underwater drones. They struck a Russian submarine in Novorossiysk, a Black Sea port. Ukraine claims it suffered critical damage while Russia denies it.
Comment: it’s way harder to find a sub when it is swimming somewhere at the sea, but underwater drones will surely be used in future conflicts. They won’t change the battlefield as much as flying ones though.
The EU rolled back its rules that would have banned new petrol and diesel cars by 2035. It will instead mandate a 90% reduction in tailpipe emissions compared to 2021 levels.
Comment: I’m not sure it is enough now to save the German auto industry. The EU policies slowly killed the once best auto companies in the world and with Chinese competition running strong around the world, it might be too little too late to reverse the course.
Business, Finance & Economics
US economy added 64,000 jobs in November, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in 4 years.
Comment: slowly, but surely, the weakness in the economy is showing itself. This is something that people have been observing since the pandemic and as the supply chain war is progressing, we will see more deterioration.
Britain’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1%. The country is grappling with a stagnating economy as well.
Comment: same situation as above to be honest.
Business activity in euro area slowed more than expected in December, dragged down by a downturn in Germany. S&P Global’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to 51.9, just above the threshold for contraction.
Comment: same same, as some say, the worst is yet to come.
BOJ raised short term rates by 25bps to 0.75%, a 30-year high.
Comment: Japan has been battling deflation for years thus rising prices present a completely new set of issues, starting with a staggering 240% debt to GDP ratio. All kinds of funky situations might unravel if we see the situation persists and rates going even higher.
After a long negotiation, ByteDance signed biding agreements to form a joint venture, led by Oracle, that will operate TikTok in the US.
Comment: it’s mostly a fake deal as American investors will hold less than 50% of the JV and retain no ownership over algorithm.
Tariffs
China cut tariffs on pork imports from EU, with the final rates being about 2/3 lower than originally threatened.
Comment: a man got to eat. Especially when the Chinese import $2 billion worth of European pork.
Wrap up
And that’s all for the week. Expect the NSS deep dive in the next couple of days as well as a video on my 10 predictions for 2025 this week.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.