Global Outlook: Tariff Dividend And Drama
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 11/10/25
Welcome to another week! This one brought us developments across all the major events we are tracking, from US shutdown, through Venezuela to Supply Chain War. Never a boring day in 2025 it seems so let’s jump straight in.
By the way, after a few changes, the article on Venezuela is coming tomorrow - subscribe below so you don’t miss it.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
The Supreme Court weighed the legality of Trump tariffs and it does seem that they were skeptical of Trump’s actions. Only a few days later Trump promised to pay each American (besides the rich ones, whatever that means) a $2,000 tariff dividend, akin to a stimulus check he issued during COVID. This is a move aimed at forcing the Supreme Court to rule in his favor - by giving Americans money tied to tariffs he wants to make them too entrenched to revoke.
But this is hardly Trump’s only nod towards leftist policies. After a sweeping Mamdani victory in New York, as well as strong Democratic wins in New Jersey and Virginia governor races, Trump is looking to alleviate cost of living issues by redistribution policies. Only a couple days after the elections, he proposed redirecting the Obamacare subsidies from insurance companies to the people.
And this also ties very well with the shutdown drama. With food stamps only partially covered and increasing flight disruptions, it looks like there is some progress on a deal. Traders now expect the shutdown to end between 12th and 15th of November:
Lastly in the US, Dick Cheney, a former VP, died at the age of 84.
Oh and it does seem that the USS Gerald Ford is on the move after all. Yet the odds for a military engagement remain low after this new account bought almost $300,000 No shares on the December market:
The Americas
Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s president filed a criminal complaint against a man who groped and tried to kiss her, which was caught on video. The man was arrested on Tuesday and Sheinbaum said she would review how street harassment was criminalized throughout the country.
Peru is cutting diplomatic relations with Mexico, after a Peruvian former prime minister claimed asylum in Mexican embassy in the country. Betssy Chávez is facing charges over her alleged tole in coup attempt in 2022.
Asia
Xi met with Russian prime minister where they both reaffirmed strong ties between the two countries. Xi also called for greater economic cooperation amid growing division between team west and team east.
Speaking of which, China will allow exports of Nexperia chips for civilian use, saving European carmakers. However Europe’s militarization is still under strain as some Nexperia chips are used for military equipment. China now hopes that the Dutch government will give back control over the Dutch company.
Kazakhstan is set to join Abraham Accords despite having diplomatic relations with Israel for over 33 years. It’s a mostly symbolic move, but it may signal that Kazakhstan is moving away from Russia-China axis towards the west.
Lastly, peace talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan have collapsed. The exact reason is not known, however a ceasefire between the two countries still holds.
Middle East & Africa
The IDF launched strikes in southern Lebanon as it ramps up pressure on Hezbollah to disarm. At the same time, each strike pushes Hezbollah closer to not disarming, citing a need to protect itself against ceasefire-breaking Israel. Markets for both a strike on Greater Beirut as well as Hezbollah strikes on Israel remain priced high:
After the horrifying images from Sudan we saw last week, RSF agreed to a humanitarian truce backed by America, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The group is also reportedly open to negotiating a ceasefire, however it might have high demands.
Europe
After Trump’s announcement on nuclear tests, Vladimir Putin also ordered officials to prepare for nuclear weapons testing. Trump claimed that Russia and China are already testing their weapons, but we lack a credible proof of that. It only seems that his threat is now backfiring, creating more global instability.
Kaja Kallas said that it is realistic for new members to join the EU by 2030. Among potential candidates, Albania, Moldova, Montenegro and Ukraine are supposedly on a good path per the latest report card, while Georgia is struggling. From “de facto” point of view, Moldova and Ukraine are already in the EU though so it’s not strange that the block anticipates formalities to end in 4 years.
Norway paused the government’s ethical investing rules, giving its national sovereign fund more flexibility in investing. As the world moves from pure free markets, to something akin to national security first free markets, there is an increased recognition that such instruments as sovereign funds must not be held back by ESG.
Britain may be looking to raise income taxes ahead of the November 26th budget. Finance minister Rachel Reeves outlined a gloomy fiscal situation and high debt in her speech when she argued that it required her to make hard choices.
Finally, Andrej Babis, who won Czech election last month, secured a coalition deal with other right win allies. Former prime minister is set to return to office with his buddies that all reject EU projects and financial support for Ukraine. Expect issues around the Czech Republic, however it remains to be seen how successful the efforts to soften the rhetoric will be.
Business, Finance & Economics
Meanwhile, consumer confidence in America fell to the lowest level since June 2022. Between the shutdown, the weakening labor market and inflation that is persistently above target, it is no shocker.
Inter IKEA, the supplier of IKEA furniture stores, suffered a 26% drop in annual operating profit, blaming it on Trump tariffs and subsequent price cuts it had to make to maintain demand.
Starbucks sold a majority stake in its China retail business to Boyu Capital, a Chinese PE firm. A $4 billion entity will now have Starbucks as 40% shareholder. Starbucks struggled recently in China facing major competition mainly from Luckin Coffe, a domestic imitator.
It’s not all bad though - Toyota raised its profit forecast slightly as strong vehicle sales and cost cutting softened the blow of tariffs.
Lastly, Musk is looking at a big payday. Tesla’s stock holders approved a $1 trillion package contingent on Tesla reaching $8.5 trillion valuation.
Wrap up
And that’s all for today. After a few changes, the article on Venezuela is coming tomorrow. In the meantime stay string and see you on X!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.