Global Outlook: Tense Times
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 4/27/26
Welcome to another week! While Iran still dominates the media landscape, there is really plenty of stuff happening outside of the Middle East. From another assassination attempt on Trump, to global refinery incidents, to Ukraine war. The world keeps moving on.
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Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
We had a wild week in the US with yet another assassination attempt and turmoil around the Fed.
There was an assassination attempt during the White House Correspondents Dinner as Cole Allen stormed through the guards at the hotel and sprinted towards the room armed and shooting. He was caught before he was able to harm anyone. His manifesto shows he was targeting Trump admin officials.
Comment: some think it as scripted to push the case for Trump’s White House Ballroom. I think it could have more to do with the current Iran war, or just be a case of someone who had a psychotic episode.
We are amid Kevin Warsh’s confirmation process in the Senate, where he told the Senators he would be strictly independent from the Trump admin. Thom Tillis, a Republican, has threatened to block Mr Warsh’s confirmation unless a probe into Jerome Powell, the current chair, is dropped.
Comment: traders seem confident Warsh will be confirmed as we learned that the DoJ dropped its criminal probe into Jerome Powell.
UPS and FedEx began filing requests for refunds on tariffs after the SCOTUS ruled that some of them were unconstitutional. But some companies, like Apple and Amazon, haven’t filed for refunds yet as Trump promised in an interview that he will remember those who didn’t.
Comment: there is low chance Trump will actually remember anyone as this is just a pressure tactic to salvage the US budget.
The Americas
The Cuba situation remains unresolved as the crisis in the country deepens.
Asia
The energy situation in Asia continues to be dire, but for now, no new measures were introduced.
In Asia, as well as other parts of the world, we had over 45 refineries incidents (fires, explosions, etc.) since the start of the war. In Asia these included:
HPCL Rajasthan Refinery (Pachpadra/Balotra district, Rajasthan, India) — April 20, 2026: A fire broke out at the Crude Distillation Unit (described as the “heart” of the new ~$8.5 billion greenfield integrated refinery-cum-petrochemical complex, one of India’s first such facilities).
Myanmar river port fuel facility (Homalin Township, Sagaing Region / Bandar Humalin / Hmawbi area) on April 20–21, 2026: A massive explosion and fire erupted at a river port facility involving fuel tankers, barges, and vessels (many serving as small-scale tankers). At least 2 people were killed and 11+ injured.
Recycled/waste oil storage facility (Dong Anh District, Hanoi, Vietnam — near Lộc Hà Bridge) on April 25, 2026 (evening): Powerful explosions and a large fire broke out at a storage site holding waste/recycled oil, chemicals, solvents, and flammable materials.
Pakistani gas pipeline in Hattar Industrial Estate, Haripur district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, northwestern Pakistan on April 16, 2026: A section of a Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) gas supply/transmission pipeline burst, ignited, and exploded, triggering a massive fire with towering flames and thick black smoke. The blaze spread rapidly.
Comment: these incidents are surely connected to the current Iran war.
Japan relaxed restrictions on exports of lethal weapons, departing from pacifist policies introduced after WWII.
Comment: more and more countries see the need to militarize and Japan is the premiere US ally in the region. It is only logical that Japan jumps on that train.
Taiwan’s president Lai Ching-te cancelled a trip to Eswatini because China made it impossible to fly there, pressuring Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles to refuse to allow his plane through their airspace. Eswatini is one of 12 countries that have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. However, the foreign minister managed to go there eventually.
Comment: China’s strategy for Taiwan is a death by a thousand cuts, rather than a costly invasion. this is part of this strategy.
Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, cancelled a trip to Eswatini because China made travel impossible, his office said. Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles refused to allow his plane through their airspace. Taiwan alleged that they had been coerced by China, including with economic pressure. Eswatini is one of 12 countries that have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which China claims as its own.
Middle East & Africa
The situation in the Middle East continues to be complicated as the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists.
The ceasefire in Iran expired, but Trump unilaterally extended it indefinitely. Iran didn’t reciprocate, but for now no kinetic strikes are happening.
We are in a stalemate as Iran said it is not possible to open the Strait of Hormuz while the US blockade is in place. At the same time, the US is not willing to lift the blockade as long as there is no deal.
Both sides continue to intercept ships, with the US doing interceptions around India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, suggesting that Iran is evading the blockade by running ships in Pakistani territorial waters.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were supposed to go to Islamabad as Iranian foreign minister does his round trip between Islamabad, Oman and Moscow. However, the Us trip was cancelled at the last minute as there is still no alignment on a deal.
Iran is now proposing a long term ceasefire first, then a discussion on the Strait of Hormuz and only once this issue is resolved, a possible discussion on the nuclear enrichment.
Comment: seems like both sides are waiting for the other to blink first as global supply chains struggle with each day of the Strait of Hormuz double closure. With 2 months in, we are sure to feel dire consequences of the energy supply shock. More of my comments on the situation in my recent portfolio update:
In the meantime, the Lebanon ceasefire is somewhat holding as both sides accuse each other of breaches.
However, Trump managed to secure the ceasefire extension for 3 weeks as he awaits progress in Iran talks, after he hosted Israeli and Lebanese diplomats in the White House.
Comment: if anything, it is a proof that the Hezbollah issue is important for Iran and that Israel is willing to play ball for now, indicating trust in Tump’s actions.
Militants in Mali launched a series of coordinated attacks against towns and cities across the country. They appear to push Russian backed soldiers out of the key positions.
Comment: I’ve repeatedly mentioned that Africa will also be a field in the current cold war between team west and team east.
Europe
Europe is also starting to feel the consequences of the Iran war, while the Ukraine war persists, without prospects of imminent end.
Ukraine has repaired the Druzhba pipeline carrying Russian crude to central Europe. It must make Hungary and Slovakia happy and raises prospects of unlocking the €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine.
Comments: Ukraine would get financing one way or the other. For now, the war must go on. We will see what happens around July, once the main effects of the SOH closure will start to be felt in Europe.
Germany published its first military strategy since the WWII. Germany assumes special responsibility for the EU’s defense as describes Russia as the greatest immediate threat. It aims to be fully ready by 2039, 100 years after the start of WWII.
Comment: one could say that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. But 2039 is way too late for taking special responsibility.
Lufthansa cancelled 20,000 short-haul flights across Europe between May and October, aiming to save 40,000 tonnes of jet fuel.
Comment: slowly, then suddenly.
Wes Streeting, Britain’s helath secretary, hailed the new bill banning anyone born after January 1st 2009 from buying tobacco and putting more restrictions on vapes and marketing.
Comment: New Zealand, that passed similar law in 2022, repealed it 2 years later. Official reason is tax revenue, real reason is the strength of tobacco lobby and people needing to have some fun as New Zealand fights with massive emigration issues.
Norway is looking to ban social media for children under 16 as it joins a dozen European countries that plan to introduce age restrictions.
Comment: slowly, but surely, governments are fighting with anonymity online. These restrictions mean ID verification for social media. If nothing changes, in under 20 years all internet will be accessible only after ID verification.
Viktor Orban said he would not take his seat in parliament once it reconvenes after the recent election. He said “I am now needed not in parliament, but in the reorganization of the patriotic movement”.
Comment: not sure here, maybe he’s finally retiring?
Business, Finance & Economics
AI is still king when it comes to business and financial returns on the markets.
DeepSeek unveiled a preview of its new open source model V4. It is reported to outperform all other open sourced models. It is also the first model adapted for Huawei chips vs Nvidia.
Comment: China is trying to lessen its reliance on western high-tech.
Intel’s shares jumped by 20% after stronger than expected Q1 results and a good forecast of future sales.
Comment: sovereign wealth funds are one of the best investors.
Sony has built an AI-powered robot that can compete against and even defeat elite table tennis players. It was trained using a combo of computer simulations and analyses of expert players.
Comment: while sport is only fun because it is a display of human excellence, the progress in AI powered robotics through sports will translate to industrial use.
S&P500 and NASDAQ closed at ATHs on Friday, despite the continued blockade of the SOH.
Comment: markets will sleepwalk into a deepest recession in the recent history.
Wrap up
That’s all for today. This week I’ll try to focus on Cuba, but since its timing is highly dependent on Iran resolution, it might be delayed again in favor of tracking Iran war.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.