Welcome to another week! Filled with Russian provocations, snippets from the UN meeting and usual domestic turmoil in the US. We also had interesting developments on prediction markets with Gaza ceasefire odds surging, fueled by hopeful Trump comments.
On prediction markets, we have a real boom in the space with a lot of new builders and creators entering the space. But the ones that were early in the space can now reap the results - last week, Adjacent announced its new perpetual index - US Political Future Index aggregating prediction market data around future US elections into one, tradable index giving you information and exposure on the results on the future US balance of power. You can read more about it here.
This and more in today’s edition. Hit that subscribe button and see it for yourself!
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
Trump’s battle with the courts continues. Last week he got a small win when SCOTUS allowed him to fire Rebecca Slaughter, the leader of the FTC, for now. The court will hear arguments on the longstanding precedent that the president cannot fire independent regulators over political differences.
Trump will also attend a meeting of top military officers at Quantico, organized by Pete Hegseth. All the top general and admirals from around the world are coming on a short notice, for a generally unknown reason. But considering how the law is structured, we shouldn’t expect major announcements, like a new war - traders mostly agree:
Staying in the military, Trump said he would send troops to Portland to deal with domestic terrorism. The troops will be there to protect immigration offices that are “under siege” for Antifa and other domestic terrorists.
In another great victory, Trump along with RFK Jr. claimed they found the cause of autism. The culprit is (supposedly) well-known paracetamol (know as Tylenol), a common OTC painkiller, taken during pregnancy. Take this with a huge grain of salt ;).
Wouldn’t be a usual week in the US without a shooting these days. Three people were shot at ICE facility in Texas, before the shooter shot himself. Surprisingly no agents were injured, only detainees. FBI also recovered bullets inscribed with “anti-ICE” messages.
Trump also continues his battles with his political opponents. The DOJ indicted James Comey, a former FBI director. He is accused of lying to the Congress ad obstruction of justice during the investigation into links between Russia and Trump. Trump also suggested that others might follow.
In a not so surprising move, Trump and Elon Musk were seen shaking hands at Charlie Kirk memorial. The rift between them couldn’t last very long, especially considering that Musk’s X is crucial for midterms election. Musk’s XAI also got a contract with the government.
And lastly Eric Adams announced his resignation from the NYC mayoral race. The decision was wildly expected as he was trailing other candidates. His resignation shouldn’t impact the race though as Mamdani holds a steady lead over other candidates.
Inside this whole political turmoil we also have a growing risk of a government shutdown. Despite initial doubts, traders now mostly agree that we will see one starting October 1st:
The Americas
In Argentina, following Milei’s party unexpected loss in the local election, the peso continues to struggle. Scott Bessent said he was in talks to offer a $20 billion swap line to help the country stabilize the currency. He also suggested that American companies were planning substantial investments if next month’s midterm elections deliver a positive outcome (ie. Milei’s party victory). The pressure is on.
Asia
Besides news on TikTok (in the business section), the news from Asia focused on the Super Typhoon Ragasa that hit the Philippines, Taiwan and Hong Kong. We got some wild footage from the city, including people fishing on the streets with buckets. At least 14 people were killed in Taiwan. Airports in the region have cancelled more than 5,000 flights.
On the picturesque islands of Seychelles, the presidential election is going to the second round after no candidate won the majority of the votes. Patrick Herminie, of the United Seychelles Party, who won 48.8% of the vote will face the incumbent, Wavel Ramkalawan, of the Linyon Demokratik Seselwa Party, who received 46.4% of the vote on October 9-11th.
Middle East & Africa
Netanyahu addressed the (mostly empty) UN General Assembly in New York where he denounced Iran and vowed to hunt down Hamas while urging the group the release the remaining hostages. At the same time Trump promised that Israel won’t take over the West Bank (sure…) and that a new ceasefire deal in Gaza is close.
Trump proposed a 21-point outline of a deal that is quite similar to everything we’ve seen before. However, is it enough to stop the war? I will focus on that in the deep dive this week as the Middle East markets made a comeback with Gaza ceasefire at the forefront. Make sure to subscribe!
The same UN also imposed sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program after Britain, France and Germany triggered a snapback mechanism on the original Iran nuclear deal. Iran must now meet several conditions, including resuming talks with the US, to avoid the sanctions. However there are little chances Iran will bend.
Lastly, authorities in Madagascar declared a curfew in the capital after a day of violent protests. Thousands of people are angry about persistent electricity cuts and water shortages.
Europe
Continuing the UN snippets, Donald Trump said and posted that he now believes that Ukraine can win the war with Russia, regain its whole territory and even take some of the Russian (sic!). He also said that NATO countries might shoot down Russian jets that enter its airspace. I’ve already written my thoughts on the war developments there, make sure to check them out!
Staying on the topic, Russia continues its provocation, sending drones all over Europe and disrupting air traffic in the process. Last week there were sightings over Oslo, Copenhagen, Aalborg and others. Russia denies the accusations, however a combination of “incidents” strongly suggest that it stands behind the incidents.
NATO, while not responding kinetically, is bringing more jests and equipment to the region, suspecting (rightfully) that these kinds of actions will continue and intensify in the future. At the same time Russia condemned the proposed shooting of Russian jets, calling it reckless, irresponsible and dangerous, while Sergei Lavrov claimed that Russia had no intentions of attacking NATO and EU countries. He also said that any aggression against his country would be met wit a decisive response.
While politicians talks, the actual war goes on, with strikes going on both sides. Ukraine is now regularly sending drones on Russian territory, while Russia continues to strike various targets in Ukraine, recently sending over 600 drones and 50 missiles in on one night.
Lastly, Keir Starmer said mandatory digital IDs would be required to work by 2029, which should help with stopping illegal immigration. As ReformUK is rising in the polls, Labour Party is trying to show that it also cares about migration issues.
Business, Finance & Economics
The US economy supposedly grew by 3.8% y/y in Q2, above earlier estimates of 3.3%. Amazing things can happen when you fake the data.
Meanwhile, Jerome Powell is once again looking to increase volume on Polymarket’s Fed decision market by being ambiguous about future rate cuts. However a 25bps cut won’t save the job market if you ask me.
Trump signed an executive order mentioning some kind of a framework agreement with a TikTok deal as part of it. It cites a $14 billion valuation of the US division of the business, which for many seems low. However, I believe that it is even too high as the most valuable part of the business, the algorithm, will remain in Chinese hands and will be only licensed to the US entity. We are still awaiting the official confirmation from both the Chinese government as well as ByteDance.
In Saudi Arabia, the stock market rose 5% after the regulators announced they were preparing to lift a 49% cap on foreign ownership of listed companies.
Nvidia signed a deal to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI to build data centers with capacity of 10 GW in return for equity in the company. Of course, Nvidia shares jumped 5% on the news.
OpenAI itself announced plans to spend $400 billion on 5 new data centers in America as part of the Stargate project. Majority of the funds still need to be raised before the project can start.
Lastly in business, Tether, the creator of USDT, is seeking up to $20 billion in new funds, valuing it as around $500 billion. Awesome business if you ask me.
Tariffs
After a bit of a hiatus in the tariff department, Trump is back at it announcing 100% tariffs on imports of branded or patented drugs, starting October 1st. The tairffs won’t apply to companies building manufacturing plants in the country.
Wrap up
And that’s all for the week. We are seeing a lot of news around wars, both of which are ripe for new developments. So accordingly, we will see each other this week for the update on the situation in the Middle East.
Stay strong and remain in the green!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.