Global Outlook: The Ultimatum
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 11/17/25
Welcome to another week! The last one was quite busy with a flurry of both good news (like the end of government shutdown) and worse ones (like corruption in Ukraine, but is it even news?). It’s looking to be an article on the longer side, so hit that subscribe button and see the world for yourself.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
The US government is open after long 43 days. However we might have a repeat in February as the funding bill guarantees funding to the end of January. Trump touted the signing as a major win as it seems that Democrats failed to push anything on their agenda. But bigger problems are looming.
Democrats on an American congressional committee released new Epstein documents. They suggest that Trump spent time in Epstein’s house with one of the victims. Other leaked emails claim that Trump “knew about the girls”. In a response, the justice department will investigate several Democrats, including Bill Clinton, for their alleged involvement with Epstein.
Additionally, after failing to convince some Republicans to vote against a release of all the files, he urged everyone to vote for it, claiming he has nothing to hide in the end. I think there is either a big fat nothing in the files, or so many people are implicated that the release will be stopped by other means.
Trump also threaten to sue BBC for $1 billion in damages if it did not retract a defamatory documentary related to 2021 Capitol riots. BBC apologized, however it doesn’t look to be enough for Trump as he is looking to make it his yet another campaign against “fake news media”.
And moving swiftly to the Americas, the US will designate Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization from November 24th. Combined with Trump’s claim that he might talk with Maduro, it seems to be the final ultimatum - surrender till November 24th or we will strike. Since Maduro can’t surrender thanks to Cuban caretakers in his vicinity, we could be hearing about the strikes by the end of November. Traders remain confused, which is most likely the aim:
The Americas
In protest at the US strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats, Colombia suspended intelligence sharing with America. I don’t think Colombia has a lot to offer in this department though. Colombia is most likely worried about a potential destabilization in the neighboring country as it already hosts millions of Venezuelan refugees.
More than 120 people (including 100 police officers) were injured during protests in Mexico City. Young activists organized a demonstration against the government of Claudia Sheinbaum as they believe she’s done too little to tackle cartels and violent crime.
We had a first round presidential election in Chile, where as expected José Antonio Kast will face Jeannette Jara. Right wing Kast is expected to decisively win against his communist opponent:
Asia
The week in Asia passed under the light of reigniting conflicts. First scare came as a vehicle exploded in Delhi, India. India went just short of accusing Pakistan and shortly after a suicide bomber killed 12 people and injured 27 in Islamabad, Pakistan. Pakistan was fast to blame Afghan militias, which are supported by India.
Somewhat of a symmetrical response might have saved us from the spark reigniting the conflict between 2 nuclear powers.
Staying for a bit with Pakistan, its parliament passed a constitutional amendment handing more power to Field Marshal Asim Munir, the de facto leader. Once the bill is approved by the president, it will grant Munir control over the navy and air force and lifelong immunity from criminal prosecution. The amendment also creates a court that will sit above the Supreme Court - a total consilidation of power.
Moving back to conflicts, Thailand suspended its ceasefire with Cambodia after two Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine near the contested border. We are yet to see more hostilities between the two countries, for now it seems that backdoor communications are ongoing to avoid the conflict.
Moving eastward, China advised its citizens to avoid travel to Japan and said Japan would face a crushing defeat if it tried to defend Taiwan. Warnings come as Takaichi Sanae suggested that Japan would consider an armed response if China invaded the island.
Lastly, Australia accused hackers linked to the Chinese government and army of targeting the country’s critical infrastructure like water, transport and telecoms networks. A cautionary tale of how fragile some key infrastructure is.
Middle East & Africa
Hooping Ahmed al-Sharaa signed Syria up to the American led anti-Islamic State coalition. The new president is trying hard to build good alliances with key actors like the US and Turkey in an effort to control and rebuild the country.
Iran seized an oil tanker, the Cypriot owned Talara flagged in the Marshall Islands. It was sailing from the UAE to Singapore. Iran claims that its cargo was unauthorized, justifying the first seize in over a year.
Lastly, the Democratic Republic of Congo and M23, a rebel group backed by Rwanda, signed a framework peace agreement in Doha. Back in June, Congo and Rwanda also signed a peace accord in Washington.
Europe
Ukraine has now a corruption scandal. The anti corruption bureau launched a probe into a $100 million kickback scheme in the energy sectors. Senior government officials and a businessman linked to Zelensky are under scrutiny. However most managed to get out of Ukraine in time. Maybe the brief takeover of the bureau by Zelensky a few months back were aimed to get insight into the investigation and prepare in advance. Suspensions followed.
At the same time Zelensky announced a new gas deal with Greece to compensate for production lost to Russian attacks. Between the corruption scandal related to energy sector and Russia strikes on energy facilities, it’s a nugget of good news for Ukrainians bracing for a difficult winter.
Vladimir Putin will let Citigroup sell its Russian business to Renaissance Capital, a Russian investment bank. The sales comes as the EU is thinking about using Russian frozen assets to finance Ukraine war.
In a rare good news from the Europarliament, the MEPs voted to scale back ESG rules so 90% of companies operating currently under the framework will no longer need to comply. Interestingly, it was backed by a combination of conservative and right-wing parties.
As Labor Party struggles to formulate a budget, Shabana Mahmoodis looking to cut aid to asylum seekers, including an end to guaranteed housing, end to financial support for those able to work or with means. It also shortens asylum time to 30 months, from 60. Labor is trying to retain power as both voters continue to flip towards Reform and Starmer is less and less popular, even amid his party peers.
Lastly, Nicolas Sarkozy was released from prison after serving 20 days of his 5 year sentence. He will await the verdict of his appeal from home.
Business, Finance & Economics
Financial markets are bleeding as Nasdaq declined over 2% at the end of the week, dragged by Nvidia. Crypto is bleeding as well with BTC now below $100,000. All while it increasingly looks like the Fed might not lower rates at the next meeting. Speaking of the Fed, it looks like we are not getting unemployment data.
In China, Baidu unveiled new AI chips, to be released in 2026 and 2027 in a move to stop reliance on western chip designs. Additionally it revealed a new LLM Ernie 5.0, supposedly on par with GPT-5.
Blue Origin successfully launched its New Glenn rocket and caught its booster for the first time. Bezos is trying to catch up with Musk in a new space race.
Tariffs
Trump exempted several foodstuffs from tariffs (including beef and coffee). As we had the tariffs with us for a few months now, the first cracks start to appear. Now it’s time for phase 2 - subsidies and exemptions.
But for the good news, Rolex watch will be a bit cheaper as Switzerland reached a deal with the US to lower tariffs from 39% to 15%. Some gifts were involved ;).
Wrap up
And that’s all for the week. As we are awaiting action in Venezuela, I will be on the lookout for new situations and deep dive topics.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.