Global Outlook: Trouble In The Paradise
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 12/15/25
Welcome to another week. Last one was a relatively quiet one, only on the weekend we had 2 mass shootings - RIP to all the victims…
But looking ahead we have an interesting mix of global events - the Ukraine peace process which is dragging for several weeks now, new escalations around Venezuela and a war in South East Asia that is more complex that may seem.
This and more in today’s global outlook - subscribe below and see the world for yourself.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
Conservative justices at SCOTUS signaled they would uphold Trump’s dismissal of Rebecca Slaughter from the FTC. Lower courts blocked the attempt based on the Humphrey’s Executor v. United States precedent set in 1935.
Comment: despite the precedent being limited in the recent decades, a move to completely overturn it will be a massive win for Trump in his effort to expand presidential powers.
The Trump administration presented a $12 billion package for farmers as they struggle with falling crop prices, the effect of tariffs and low Chinese demand.
Comment: welcome to part 2 of tariffs - subsidies. After a few months of high tariffs, their effect is starting to be visible across many industries. Those who struggle the most and are crucial to national security will now receive government subsidies.
Trump allowed Nvidia to export H200 chips to approved customers in China. He also claimed that the US government will get 25% of the price. Chips area generation behind latest models.
Comment: global supply chain war is tough to fight - no country can go all in as it would destroy itself in the process. Here the Trump admin is trying to balance the denial of technology with AI bubble concerns - essentially Nvidia needs to beat earnings constantly to keep up the bubble long enough to see outsized returns on AI capex.
Grand jury materials related to the investigation of Ghislaine Maxwell were ordered to be unsealed. The DOJ cited the Epstein disclosure bill as a reason for the request.
Comment: do you think we will learn anything substantial? I doubt it.
There was a shooting at Brown University, leaving 2 people dead and 9 injured. The suspect is still at large with a manhunt ongoing.
Comment: usual USA, the people are divided and angry. It will happen again…
The Americas
The US seized a very large oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. It was a previously sanctioned tanker and it is now en route to the US. The US also imposed sanctions on 3 family members of Maduro and 6 companies operating in the oil sector there.
Comment: seizing a tanker is a new escalation in the confrontation between the US and Venezuela. It still short of actual land strikes, let alone invasion, but it sends an important signal relating to other wars (especially Ukraine) - targeting oil is a viable way to pressure the enemy, that is short of an actual war.
Maria Corina Machado was extracted from Venezuela to accept her Nobel PEace Prize in Oslo. She was a few hours late, but the news captured the attention of the world for a couple of days.
Comment: the US is showing that it can already do whatever it wants in Venezuela, including an extraction of a state enemy number 1. Also it seems they are planning to get her back to the country soon.
Brazil’s lower house passed a bill that could shorten Bolsonaro’s 27-year sentence by as much as 25 years while the Trump admin removed sanctions it imposed on Alexandre de Moraes, a Brazilian Supreme Court judge, and started to reverse some of the steep tariffs on the country.
Comment: it does seem that Brazil, scared by the amount of focus and pressure on the western hemisphere by the US, is trying to work with the US. Shortening Bolsonaro’s sentence is a gesture of goodwill to Trump, although it seems we are just at the beginning of the process.
Asia
Fighting is ongoing between Thailand and Cambodia. It is despite Trump announcing a new ceasefire and over 500,000 people being displaced on both sides of the border. As a result, Cambodia also closed the entire border with Thailand and withdrew from South East Asian Games, held now in Thailand.
On top of that the prime minister of Thailand resigned on Friday, paving a way for new election (or not really!). Thailand also announced it is planning to block oil tankers coming to Cambodia. And the people seem to love it!
Comment: Thai politics is surely interesting and at the center of current conflict we have Thai corruption scandal, Cambodian scam centers (they are primary targets btw as they sit by the border) and international money laundering. Of course, that’s just one of the theses, but the other overwhelming one is that Thailand, emboldened by the death of the rules-based order, decided to expand its influence and politically take over Cambodia. Oh and the prime minister resigning doesn’t mean new election sooner as the media writes - as long as there is war on the border and people are displaced, no election can happen. Essentially, the prime minister ceded the power to the military as now the government is just a facade. And all of this comes as Thailand sees 10% lower tourism this year.
The US condemns China aiming of radars at Japanese planes. It’s the first criticism after the incident.
Comment: as it was written in the new NSS, the US will be happy to back Japan as it undermines China in the region.
Two gunmen killed at least 15 people at a Jewish Hanukkah celebration on Bondi Beach in Sydney. One attacker was shot dead and the other one is in critical condition.
Comment: the US is not the only country with societal issues. Quite the contrary - most of team west struggles with the issue!
Middle East & Africa
Three Americans (two soldiers and a civilian interpreter) were killed in Syria. The Pentagon claims they had been supporting operations to counter ISIS when they came under fire from a lone gunman who was killed on site. Three other Americans were wounded.
Comment: I doubt this will be enough to destabilize the region.
Israel killed Raed Saad, a senior Hamas commander in a strike on Gaza. As a result, Hamas is threatening to void the ceasefire and asked Trump to press Israel to enforce it.
Comment: Hamas can’t do anything without outside backing, which it has none at the moment. However Israel is on the edge, any outsized killings can encourage Hamas’s allies to once again start to provide them supplies.
Europe
Zelensky presented a refined peace plan to the US. Parts of it include holding elections if the US and Europe ensure security. Additionally he opened a way to cede territory, proposing to hold a referendum. And he said Ukraine would drop NATO bid if it is presented with very robust security guarantees.
In the meantime, Europe agreed to freeze Russian assets indefinitely.
Comment: the peace plan is of course going nowhere. The game is not about a ceasefire - it is about optics as neither side wants to look bad due to leaving negotiations. And all of this happens as Europe is trying to use frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine. Once it happens, expect any peace effort to stop.
Lithuania declared a state of emergency after smuggler balloons entered its airspace from Belarus. It has already happened several times, forcing airports to close down. Belarus denies responsibility.
Comment: it’s just a part of hybrid warfare from Russia. The military and society is kept on a constant edge - more such events will follow, as I keep saying for quite some time now.
Belarus released 123 prisoners as part of an American-brokered deal. In return, the US lifted some of the sanctions, including potash, an ingredient in fertilizer.
Comment: Lukashenko is trying to balance between Russia and team west as he is increasingly pressured to be swollen by Russia. I still doubt there is a way for him and Belarus to go west, as this has been already tried before and stopped for this very reason.
Bulgaria’s government collapsed after weeks of anti-corruption and anti new tax hikes protests. The collapse comes just weeks before Bulgaria joins the eurozone.
Comment: nothing much here, expect the liberal left to win the next election ;)
As Bulgarian protests end, Hungary ones begin. Sparked by a leaked video of beatings in juvenile detention center, they are calling for Orban to step down.
Comment: as we are nearing the election in Hungary, expect to see a lot of pressure on Orban in the western media. But to see if he can win this time, it will be better to listen to domestic sources, as it was the case with the Polish presidential election this year.
The European Commission began investigating whether Google’s roll-out of AI-generated summaries on the search engine breached antitrust laws.
Comment: as the US is focusing away from Europe, diverting funding in the process, Europe is poised to begin more such cases to extract money from American giants. It’s a third such case in 2 weeks that we hear of.
Business, Finance & Economics
The Fed lowered the interest rates by another 25bps to 3.5-3.75%. It was the third consecutive cut.
Comment: as long as we have Powell in, we will have every decision telegraphed by Nick Timiraos. The real fun will begin when the new chair is in!
Price of silver rose above $60 per troy ounce, another ATH. Allow me to not quote headline reasons for it here.
Comment: the price of silver going up is not related to inflation, or rate cut decision. It is related to supply chain disruption and China controlling the vast majority of various metal processing that yields silver as a byproduct.
Wrap up
And that’s all for the week. Expect the NSS deep dive in the next couple of days as well as a video on my 10 predictions for 2025 this week.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.