Given you were aware of the closeness of the Polish election plus potential for inaccurate exit polling could it have been more optimal to have a smaller position pre-election with the potential to top up at higher returns when the exit poll was released? I appreciate this is easy to suggest with hindsight but is this something you considered or would consider in future?
Well, I expected the election to be close, but not so that exit poll is "wrong" and only late poll shows the real winner. If I had to guesstimate final results in the moment I published the article on 2nd round, I would say 51-51.5% for Nawrocki vs 50.89% he got. My scenario was in line with 2020 election, where the exit poll pointed right at Duda (he got 51.03% eventually).
Especially since there never was a situation in Poland when exit poll was "wrong". I consider it too risky to just wait and bet when exit poll is wrong, it could have shown Nawrocki as a winner and then the price would spike to ca. 70c for him. Pretty much a 50/50 chances of that with such a close election.
In hindsight though I regret not building up a bigger position pre 1st round - even though my odds back then were 70/30 Trzaskowski, Nawrocki was definitely value at 16c. This is my biggest regret as I rightly anticipated a spike in his odds post 1st round. I was definitely too fixated on Trzaskowski winning eventually back then.
In the end, it's very hard to pinpoint the bottom for a perfect entry, I tried to average out by buying when the odds lowered and had an average entry price in the low 30s which compared to my fair odds of 55/45 Nawrocki/Trzaskowski was really amazing.
Given you were aware of the closeness of the Polish election plus potential for inaccurate exit polling could it have been more optimal to have a smaller position pre-election with the potential to top up at higher returns when the exit poll was released? I appreciate this is easy to suggest with hindsight but is this something you considered or would consider in future?
Well, I expected the election to be close, but not so that exit poll is "wrong" and only late poll shows the real winner. If I had to guesstimate final results in the moment I published the article on 2nd round, I would say 51-51.5% for Nawrocki vs 50.89% he got. My scenario was in line with 2020 election, where the exit poll pointed right at Duda (he got 51.03% eventually).
Especially since there never was a situation in Poland when exit poll was "wrong". I consider it too risky to just wait and bet when exit poll is wrong, it could have shown Nawrocki as a winner and then the price would spike to ca. 70c for him. Pretty much a 50/50 chances of that with such a close election.
In hindsight though I regret not building up a bigger position pre 1st round - even though my odds back then were 70/30 Trzaskowski, Nawrocki was definitely value at 16c. This is my biggest regret as I rightly anticipated a spike in his odds post 1st round. I was definitely too fixated on Trzaskowski winning eventually back then.
In the end, it's very hard to pinpoint the bottom for a perfect entry, I tried to average out by buying when the odds lowered and had an average entry price in the low 30s which compared to my fair odds of 55/45 Nawrocki/Trzaskowski was really amazing.