Global Outlook: Waiting
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 3/16/26
Welcome to another week! The world continues to watch the Iran war as the fallout from the Strait of Hormuz closure reverberates across the global economy. The conflict has significantly upended the geopolitical calculus and after an initial shock, countries around the world scramble to position themselves accordingly.
Amid extremely thick fog of war, prediction markets continue to be the best and most reliable source of information about the war. From ceasefire chances to strait closure to on the ground developments, there is no better place to get your daily updates.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
Amid Iran war, domestic issues in the US remain mostly outside the main news cycle.
Scott Bessent announced that America will temporarily ease sanctions to allow countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum currently at sea.
Comment: the US is trying to manage the energy shortage while it scrambles to begin escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz. A carefully calibrated narrative around Iran operations and oil availability is aimed at calming the markets in hope escort operations will bring back enough energy supply to contain the worst.
America launched investigations into several of its trading partners (EU, China, Japan and India among others). Official cause is to examine excess capacity and production in manufacturing sectors.
Comment: analysts believe the move is mostly a precursor to implementing section 301 tariffs after SCOTUS shut down IEEPA tariffs.
The Americas
With Cuba caving in, the Americas are once again one of the most interesting regions in the world now when it comes to geopolitics.
Both Cuba and the US said that talks are ongoing between the two historic rivals. After increasing sanctions on the communist island, the Trump embargo on oil pushed Cuba on the brink, forcing the regime to negotiate.
Comment: Cuba is in a difficult situation. However, the communist regime on the island is deeply entrenched and hopes of having Venezuela-style transition might be too optimistic. For now, Trump doesn’t exclude a military intervention on the island, but he claims such an action would only be done once Iran is finished; a promise he might be forced to break.
Mark Carney of Canada announced plans to invest additional $25.7 billion in defense and infrastructure projects across the Arctic amid pressure from Trump and threats from Russia.
Comment: could it be the start to USMCA renegotiation? Maybe, just maybe…
Asia
Asia is the one region that is and will be the most affected by the supply shock coming from the Strait of Hormuz.
China’s exports grew by 21.8% during the first two months of 2026 on y/y basis. GDP growth was 6.6% in December. On the other hand, China despite having large oil reserve, is looking to be hit by rising oil prices and may be forced to increase its reliance on Russia. And Trump might delay his China visit due to the Iran war.
Comment: well, this war in Iran is ALSO about China. We surely don’t have all the details, but in the long term the competitive position of China is more hurt by not having access to Gulf oil than American position is hurt by global supply shock.
North Korea fired around 10 missiles into the Sea of Japan as America and South Korea carried out joint military exercises. On Friday SK’s prime minister met with Trump to discuss ways to resume talks with the North which were paused in 2019.
Comment: a rather harmless muscle flexing. However, the region must be watched closely now that we have a potentially prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
Middle East & Africa
Iran war continues with no signs of stopping.
Trump continues to float conflicting statements about the ending of the war, all in order to prop up the markets. At the same time Iran is creating a narrative in which they want to fight on and establish deterrence. Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader pledged to avenge his father and other martyrs.
Australia granted asylum to 5 members of Iran’s women’s football team, which is in the country for the Asian Cup. However, all members later walked back the asylum ask.
American refueling plane crashed in Iraq with all the crew found and declared dead. The cause is supposed to be a mid-air collision during refueling. Additionally, a French soldier was killed in a drone attack in Iraq.
America also hit Kharg Island, however it spared oil infrastructure for now.
Gulf countries continue to be targeted with air traffic far from normal levels. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed.
Comment: you can read my latest thoughts on the Iran war in the latest Situation Monitor.
You can also listen to my analysis on my YouTube channel in my latest video from yesterday
While the Iran war rages on, Pakistan and Afghanistan are also exchanging blows, most recently Afghanistan launched drones against civilian areas of Pakistan.
Comment: interesting timing for such a confrontation. But I need to read more about the situation.
Europe
It was a quite uneventful week in Europe as all the capitals are thinking about energy supply.
Ursula von der Leyen suggested that Germany had been wrong to shut down its nuclear reactors, naming it a strategic mistake. Additionally, Belgian prime minister is calling for normalization of ties with Russia.
Comment: facing acute energy shortages, Europe is fast to realize its past mistakes, but still a bit slow in securing new supply. The conflict’s impact on Europe and Ukraine war is surely worth a deep dive. Soon.
Polish president vetoed an act of parliament related to accessing SAFE facility for arming.
Comment: there is a lot of misinformation about the whole situation. It’s not as big of a deal as the media try to present it.
Business, Finance & Economics
Some general news from the world of business this week. Most eyes are laser focused on the Iran war.
The International Energy Agency will release a record stock of oil from its emergency reserves to counter oil price volatility. 400 million barrels are to be released into the market, representing 20 days of Gulf supply.
Comment: it’s not nearly enough, but it buys the US some time to secure essential traffic through the strait.
Anthropic sued the Pentagon for labelling it a supply chain risk, a designation that blocks the firm from working with defense contractors. It has never been applied to an American company.
Comment: part of the fight to use AI for war planning. Anthropic is very against it, but at the same time defense contracts are the cash cow you need for a truly big business. we all know how this ends.
Bill Ackman filed to list a new closed-end fund on the NYSE. It’s yet another time the investor tries to build a modern day Berkshire Hathaway.
Comment: coming back to the old topic. There is no organizational premium in hedge funds. It’s all about the smart people taking smart bets, thus it is extremely hard to treat it as a conglomerate.
Wrap up
And that’s al for today. This week I’m planning my Strait of Hormuz deep dive as we all will be watching next moves from the US and Iran.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.