Global Turmoil Part 1: National Security Strategy

How to interpret it and how to trade it on Polymarket.

The path.

Strategy is a curious concept. You don’t really want anyone to know what is yours. But at the same time you reveal it as you go. You can’t help it. Sure, some nuances can slip here and there, but the core point doesn’t change:

When devising and deploying a strategy, you actively try to prevent the other side from understanding what are your end goals, while constantly revealing them through your actions.

It’s tempting to end this article right here - after all, it’s a pretty decent alpha. But this is only half of the story. After all, concealing your true intent is not that simple:

1. You can’t write the opposite to what you want to do as it would quickly reveal your true intent.

2. But neither can you play midwit reverse psychology games.

And when it comes to strategy in a democracy, there are people who don’t have access to classified versions and rely on the public one to act, for example your lower level soldiers and politicians. Additionally, it aims to put the population at ease, showing roughly what is the plan going forward.

Ultimately, your National Security Strategy (NSS) needs to be vague enough to not reveal your hand to your opponents, but also detailed and true enough so your military, politicians and population can act accordingly and understand what is (roughly) going on.

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Masking Intent

Please don’t trust such news.

Since the watered-down version of the NSS we see is the child of the real one (if you think there is no 10x more detailed classified version, we need to have a serious conversation), inevitably some details will slip. For an average observer they are invisible, but a curious eye can draw a decent sketch based on the clues.

And that’s what I will do today. There is no use in commenting what is in the NSS - it’s obvious to everyone even remotely interested in global affairs. But there is plenty of value in catching the clues and drawing a picture.