Welcome to the eight State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
They say that summer is slow in finance and quite the same can be said about prediction markets. With many people (including these in politics) taking time off, developments are slower. However it didn’t stop me from making quite a nice profit this month:
I started June with $23,575 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $25,600.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is 9% for the month and 484% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations below are on the basis of starting bankroll.
The Good
The best trade of the month was definitely the No on Israel x Hamas ceasefire. I had 3.1% of my bankroll allocated there for a stunning 237% return, making the majority of my profit this month. My long standing thesis on the conflict was once agin confirmed, even when most saw the ceasefire coming.
The second good trade was opportunistic - I’m talking about my No position on Powell being fired. I took an opportunity to enter this trade when the rumors were at their highest and I went in with 12% of my bankroll between two bets (10% on the end of year timeline and 2% on the end of August timeline). Shortly after my article on the topic went out the overall market realized how wrong it was and now the positions are already priced more fairly. That being said the No at 88c by the end of the year is still the best bond currently available.
My last of the bigger trades was on a very simple thesis. I put 3% of my bankroll on Citibank not releasing their stablecoin this year. The market appeared after the idea was mentioned on the earnings call. However it was only a brief mention that was partly dismissed in the very next sentence when the analysts were told to focus more on other digital assets services provided by the bank. Adding to it that big corporations generally move slowly, the entry price at 60c was a steal with fair value in the 80s.
Lastly I entered 2 markets on Thailand and 2 markets on Russia with smaller bankroll allocations. On Thailand, the markets are around Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the PM, being out by the end of the month and the end of the year. While I’m fairly confident the Constitutional Court will decide to oust her, I’m not sure they will move very fast as precedent shows they can take anything between a few weeks to a few months.
On Russia, I entered end of year markets for not capturing a couple of cities. With Trump now being more serious about Ukrainian cause, I see the war stalling even further. However this level of detail is not something I am very comfortable with, thus the small bets.
The Bad
I think that the biggest mistake I made last month was not entering the Gaza ceasefire market for the end of August timeline in time. Well I did manage to buy 10 shares at 30c, but I should have entered with size when the price was still low.
Other than that it was a good month, I executed my plan with no failures and psychologically I feel very good about my performance.
Bankroll Comments
As it stands now I have 56% of my bankroll available for bets. I enter August with several markets I doing research on:
Bolivian election,
Fed rate decision,
Thailand,
Netherlands election.
I expect to allocate a significant share of my bankroll between the 4 events, finally being able to fully deploy my capital.
Wrap Up
And that’s all for today. While July was another slow month, I expect August to pick up the pace when it comes to all kinds of global events. Stay tuned as things will get interesting.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.