Iran: Let's Make A Deal

Iran update #2

Source: France 24

Dealmaking is an interesting process. It’s a bit like dating in your 40s - the first date is an interview, you can mingle only if goals are somewhat aligned and you can go serious very fast, but first you need to completely open your cards. At least that’s what movies make it look like.

Regardless if it’s true or not, this is business dealmaking in a nutshell. There are parties who think of working together and they need to gradually open their cards so the business goals are aligned. However, in both cases, emotions also play a role as they define the course of the negotiation.

Now, Iran and the US are on the “first date”, and one can say it went pretty well. The goals are somehow aligned (they agreed on the scope of the agreement, ie. on what goes in and what is out) and while they mingle (flex their militaries) they are discussing a serious relationship (drafting of the agreements). But can they get serious? Or will the mingling evolve into hostilities?

I fancy myself a good matchmaker, so let’s see if this relationship can work.

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Most Are Looking In The Wrong Direction

My X feed, mainstream media, my friends and my neighbors - there is one thing that connects them all. They all focus on the military buildup, on the next massive airlift, on when is the next strike. See it for yourself - here are two markets. One on the deal possibility and one on the strike possibility:

The difference in volume between these two events is staggering. Over $30 million traded on strikes and just under $0.7 million on the deal. And it makes me wonder.