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Iran: No One Is Asking The Right Question

Iran update #1

PROPHET - Prediction Markets's avatar
PROPHET - Prediction Markets
Feb 06, 2026
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Iran should prepare for 'meaningful' negotiations with US, Rubio says
Source: FT

The reporting on Iran is now a cesspool of rumors. Each actor leaks whatever forwards their case. Thus at one moment we hear about imminent action, only to see that the next leak saying that Trump is still being presented and weighing different options.

People are watching Pentagon pizza reports, failing to realize the Pentagon is now randomly creating spikes to make the tool useless. I could quote plenty of other useless activities, but it all happens due to ignorant reporting.


What Are The Political Goals?

Instead of peddling each rumor like it is the ultimate truth, reporters should ask Trump about political goals. What does he want to achieve in Iran?

Is it regime change? Or is it a nuclear deal? Or maybe he just wants revenge? Or is it something entirely different like precision strikes on facilities?

Reporters are not asking this. Journalists are not trying to answer this. But this is the only question that matters as everyone is trying to understand what is going to happen. I have a decent theory of what the political goals are, but it needs an expansion now as we have official deal negotiations starting. In the previous article I was clear that Trump’s preferred path would be a deal. But is it possible?

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