My Positions On Portugal Presidential Election

How to interpret it and how to trade it on Polymarket.

Source: DN

Portugal is a boring country when it comes to politics. On the periphery of Europe, with no significance in global affairs. It is a country you think of when planning a European vacation, not a sprawling political center of gravity.

And yet you found yourself clicking on this article. Why? Well, I guess you are either interested in my positions on prediction markets, or these elections aren’t so inconsequential after all? I do think so.

It is true that Portugal is not a country that comes to mind when thinking about main geopolitical events in this century. But it is a part of the EU, it also experiences the global move to the right. And in case the new right-wing wins, it can sabotage the inner workings of the EU. It can also destabilize NATO by refusing to collaborate on Ukraine.

By this definition every election in the EU countries is consequential. And it is - just look at Fico in Slovakia or Orban in Hungary. Both are a thorn in the EU’s side. And speaking of the latter, I am getting ready for the election in Hungary in April - Portugal can be a good test. So hop on and see if I got anything spicy out of this seemingly boring political stew.

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The Political System

Before we go to the spicy stuff, it’s important to understand how Portugal’s political system works. It’s not a shocker as all European systems are similar with the core distinction being the power of the king / president vs the power of the prime minister.