Onwards And Upwards
#7: State of the PROPHET NOTES
Welcome to the seventh State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
After an amazing May, June was was a slow month for me when it comes to prediction markets:
I started June with $22,003 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $23,575.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is 7% for the month and 438% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations below are on the basis of starting bankroll.
The Good
Two main trades of the month were around the Iran-Israel war and NYC mayoral Democratic primary:
US to strike Iran for a 53% return on 9% of my bankroll.
Zohran Mamdani to win NYC mayoral primary for 515% return on 0.4% of my bankroll.
Additionally I had my no rate cut remaining bet resolved for 234% profit with 1% of my bankroll.
End of June also marked the resolution of some of my other long term and smaller bets:
No rate cut remaining bet resolved for 234% profit with 1% of my bankroll,
No on Gaza ceasefire for 234% profit with 1% of my bankroll,
No on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire for 100% profit with 1% of my bankroll,
No on TikTok deal by June 19th for 54% profit with 1% of my bankroll,
Yes on Iran swiftly striking Israel after the war started for 86% profit with 1% of my bankroll.
This month in general I had little markets in which I had high conviction. Besides the US involvement, I didn’t deploy any sizable amount to any bet. For the time being my main area of focus is the Middle East, where I have a few positions on Gaza ceasefire and restart of the Iran-Israel war.
The Bad
The main mistake I made last month was that initially I became too bullish on the Iran-Israel war escalating where I lost 1.5% of my bankroll on Israel striking Kharg Island oil terminal. I also lost a marginal amount on a longshot bet that Israel attacked Iran in the end of June after unconfirmed reports of a drone striking Tehran.
Additionally my bet on Iran-Israel ceasefire being broken by July 11th might have backfired due to the renewed Gaza ceasefire negotiations, most probably costing me additional 1.5% of bankroll.
Bankroll Comments
I still have close to 73% of my bankroll available for new bets. With the geopolitical landscape being now contained in the Middle East and a lack of any new election markets until the end of summer, I’m looking to be opportunistic and otherwise remain undeployed.
Wrap Up
Despite a slower month, the green continues. July is looking to be relatively peaceful. My strongest long term theses currently are on the Middle East and Polish snap election. I see the former printing in the next two months while the Polish election bet should get some traction after Nawrocki is sworn in in August.
Stay strong and subscribe if you still haven’t! See you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.