Polish Election: I Bet More On The Ultimate Showdown

And the choice is not that obvious

Poland might become a ZYN nation. Source: TVP

Watching Polish presidential campaigns is reminiscent of watching American politics, only with one caveat. While the struggle is almost identical, with two competing parties being essentially tied, the quality is, well… like watching a B-movie.

Candidates are mediocre, sloppy and utterly unlikable. Say what you want about Trump, but he’s likable, sometimes funny. Qualities very missing from Polish politics. But regardless, they are trying.

The last week was busy. Busy with debates, interviews, media attacks going both ways. We’ve even got two massive rallies / demonstrations in Warsaw today, once cheering for Nawrocki and the other for Trzaskowski. The big guns were summoned - not only did Donald Tusk speak on the Trzaskowski rally, but he also invited the Romanian president-elect Nicusor Dan.

They are surely looking to repeat his success. But amid all the usual drama, the real battle is fought. The stakes are high and neither candidate is in the lead. Both are scrambling to get the marginal voter that will allow them to win.

So while I hope that we won’t have a big fight between the two rallies in Warsaw (there are precedents for it!), you enjoy my take on the winner.

---

Intro

As I’ve already done a long piece on the Polish political landscape, in this article I’ll be brief and include:

1. What is the situation really about? Chances and threats for each candidate.

2. What happened since the first round?

3. Recent polling and bookie odds.

4. Prediction markets and my positions going into the election.