Recap: Back To Green
#12 State of the PROPHET NOTES
Welcome to the 12th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
There is no use sugarcoating - October was my worst month yet:
I started November with $22,500 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $23,573.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is 5% for the month and 442% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations below are on the basis of starting bankroll.
The Good
This month some of my long-term positions continued to increase in value as we approach the end of the year. I didn’t trade much besides Venezuela, which is my top position right now. I expect still expect strikes to happen before the end of the year. As of today, across strike dates I’m flat on my trade.
I didn’t trade a lot besides Venezuela as I didn’t see value within geopolitics outside of this market.
What else… psychologically speaking I am not affected by last months loss - my sizing is conservative (as usual), but not different from before. Confidence level in theses is high and I’m starting to think about first setups for 2026.
The Bad
Nothing really to highlight here, we didn’t really have any major breakthroughs in geopolitics in November and trading-wise it was a rather slow month.
Bankroll Comments
As it stands now I have 41% of my bankroll available. I enter December happy with my positioning and not really anticipating any major disruptions. I don’t think I will have a lot of markets to direct capital at, however this shall change in January when I expect to deploy into several bonds that should yield me up to 20% for the year.
Additionally I will reevaluate some of my long term theses, which for now is Ukraine peace, escalations in Europe and Venezuela to some extent.
Lastly, 2026 is the year of midterms, I’m looking to capitalize on the election news cycle in the US as well.
Wrap Up
And that’s all for today. November was a much needed quiet month ahead of the busy schedule of the end of the year. Next on the schedule is the reevaluation of my 10 predictions for 2025 and another set of predictions for 2026.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.