Welcome to the ninth State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
August for me was riddled with bureaucracy - between selling the house, getting visas and organizing a whole trip, I had little time to focus on prediction markets. However, I still managed to inch some profit, thanks to several markets:
I started June with $25,600 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $26,573.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is 4% for the month and 506% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations below are on the basis of starting bankroll.
This year I am up only:
The Good
This month I produced 2 deep dives, one on Ukraine war and one on Fed decision. The first one was definitely good, as I correctly assessed that despite good press, the peace effort has little chance to succeed. The combination of the situation on the ground with a stark divergence between Russian and western demands created little space for agreement.
Over half of the monthly gains comes from these bets, both pure ceasefire plays as well as taking No positions on Putin meeting with Zelensky.
Another good trade I did was around Thailand. In the beginning of the month I bought Yes on Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thai PM, ceasing to be prime minister. There was an upcoming constitutional court ruling and I had positions on her being out by:
August 31st,
end of year.
Majority of my profit here comes from the August market as it was generally perceived that the decision will come in September.
The Bad
Here I need to say about my Fed rate thesis. While the thesis alone was and is good, I now believe that it should have been broader. In it I strictly focused on no cut vs 25bps cut, while I should have also considered a 50bps cut.
I did eventually buy Yes on 50bps cut to partly hedge my position, but I came to it way too late. Forecasting economic data is tough and considering recent significant revisions, I should have taken into account that there could be a large swing to the downside when it comes to the labor market, not only a flat print / surprise to the upside.
Another bad thing this month is my lack of focus - research takes a lot of time and due to my real life issues, I missed Bolivian and Norwegian elections. Not really a mistake, but rather a note to self that I need to have realistic expectations of the time I need to allocate vs time I have.
Bankroll Comments
As it stands now I have 56% of my bankroll available for bets. I enter September with quite a lot on my plate in real life and thus only two markets I’m researching at the time:
Lisa Cook,
Netherlands election and
France, where just as I predicted in the beginning of the year, the government has just collapsed. Take a look below for my 10 predictions for 2025:
I have a lot of capital to spare on these and I expect to go big.
Wrap Up
And that’s all for today. August really did pick up the pace, especially around Ukraine war, however my life also picked up the pace and I was only somewhat able to capitalize on the developments.
I still have quite a few things to finish in September, but starting October I am looking to have much more time to research and win. Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.