Welcome to the 20th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
July was calm, finally…:
I started July with $22,060 in my portfolio.
Today (August 7th) my portfolio stands at $22,372.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is 1.4% for the month and for 4.6% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations are on the basis of starting bankroll.
The Good
July was another green month, marking a somewhat official ending of my choppy performance this year. My performance could have been better, but some my new positions repriced:
The Clarity Act market was priced mostly on hopes of passing it pre-recess. However, several developments pre-recess moved the timeline without impacting my FV assessment—I hold the position with some loss.
The Iran war markets—my thesis is playing out in real time and I fully expect to see big swings in the value of these positions.
Considering that I remained in the green with my two main theses going against me shows me that my work in previous months is paying off.
The Bad
I should have realized Congress can deal with government funding pre-recess and push the Clarity Act to September. However, my overall entry is quite decent and well below my FV assumption.
Other than that, I don’t have any particularly bad comments—July was a slow month and I didn’t trade a lot.
Bankroll Comments
I around 50% of my bankroll available for trading. I’ve been reshuffling my portfolio in the last few days. I expect to have below 30% portfolio available by September.
Wrap Up
That’s all for today. I have a Forecast Update in the works for tomorrow.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.