Recap: Growth
#18 State of the PROPHET NOTES
Welcome to the 18th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
May proved to be a volatile month due to the Iran war, but my P&L grew regardless:
I started May with $17,700 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $19,221.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is 8.6% for the month and for -10.1% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations are on the basis of starting bankroll.
The Good
I finally figured out my mistakes with the Iran war trading. I’m back to fully listening to my research, rather than trying to fit my trading to what I wanted to happen.
The first good thing was abandoning permanent peace Yes positions at slight profit, rather than riding them to the end, hoping for a big win. Trying to catch these falling knives hurt my performance in the previous month, as without trading this market, I would have been in profit.
The second good thing was sticking to my research when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz traffic and Iran airspace closure. While the latter resolved in June, I had most of my positions for May strikes. The former, for now, is an evergreen trade.
The third good thing was holding the Ukraine war ceasefire Yes on the end of June market. I had a very different idea in mind when I bought these shares, and while I don’t agree with the resolution process, I’m happy I pocketed some money there. Especially since I’ve been hurt several times by a wrong resolution.
Ultimately, I think I had a trust issue with my research after a string of negative variance. Since the beginning of May, I’m back to a stable growth path when it comes to my P&L and I’m planning to sustain it in the future.
The Bad
I don’t think I had any huge mistakes last month. The only thing I could have done better was selling my permanent peace Yes shares earlier, in profit.
Bankroll Comments
I have 64% of my bankroll to allocate at the moment. Most of May, though, I was running on around 30% of bankroll available. I’m now looking for more niche Iran markets, as well as other global events to increase my bankroll allocation.
Overall, I’m satisfied with the utilization of the bankroll in May. It was approaching 80%, which I consider most optimal; it’s a good balance between having liquidity to enter new markets and utilizing the size I have. However, since most of the markets I trade now are short-term, spikes in bankroll utilization will happen.
Wrap Up
That’s it for today. I’ll publish a separate portfolio update over the weekend to dive deeper into the positions I’m holding and explore some new ideas.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.