Welcome to the ninth State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
I said that August was busy for me - September was even worse. Between packing my stuff, finishing the visa and entity paperwork and selling the house I had little time:
I started September with $26,573 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $25,500.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is -4% for the month and 486% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations below are on the basis of starting bankroll.
This is my first red month this year, fueled by Fed rates bet going south as well as current volatility on the Gaza ceasefire market. However I have high conviction it will print in the end, pushing me to the new ATH.
The Good
I don’t have a lot to comment here. I still stand by my theses around Ukraine war and looking at the situation on the ground the situation plays out as expected:
Similarly I stand by my Gaza thesis and the next few days will prove I’m right. Probably 2 more days. Other than that I have a good run on the Ukraine ceasefire markets and adjacent.
Additionally, based on the tip from my subscriber I got into No position on Jim Gavin winning Irish Presidential election and it’s a shame I wasn’t filled for more of my orders as he just dropped out from the race.
Other than that, my other main bet is Putin meeting Trump y the end of October, based on another interesting tip.
Lastly, without a deep dive, I decided to bet on Trump not anouncing a new Fed Chair by the end of the year. The logic is simple - Trump loves a good shows and there is no good show without a cliffhanger.
The Bad
The obvious bad is time. I had little of it and September clearly showed me that in case I have little time, I should step back rather than force trades and bets.
Additionally I should have exited my Fed position earlier. Timiraos wrote specifically about the cut and I should have listened as recently he was the oracle. That’s a mistake I will not repeat again - I need to exit bad bets when all odds are against me.
Lastly, I entered the Gaza ceasefire market too early. I thought that the market will be more sensible about the actual chances, but it turns out that the delusion is still in - there just was not a good event to uncover it.
Bankroll Comments
As it stands now I have 52% of my bankroll available for bets. I enter October with a bit less on my plate in real life (as I only have to find a permanent place to live now which should be done in a week or so). For now I am fully focused on the Gaza ceasefire as well as looking to deep dive into the Netherlands election.
Wrap Up
And that’s all for today. September was a really interesting month. I don’t want to sound insensitive here, but I’m glad that the Middle East markets are back - not only the increased focus on the region is good, but also it is a chance to bet on the truth, using my understanding of the situation.
This edition of the State of The PROPHET NOTES is a bit shorter as I’m writing it in between searching for a place to live, but expect to see more content in 10 days or so! Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.