Welcome to the 19th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
June was a wild month, but this time I was ready:
I started June with $19,221 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $22,060.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is 14.8% for the month and for 3% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations are on the basis of starting bankroll.
The Good
The best news (at least for my psyche) is that PROPHET NOTES is now in the green for the year. The plan this year was to double the bankroll and with all the lessons 2026 brought, I can say I’m on track to achieve that. Especially since I’m back to fully trusting my research and my gut.
The majority of my gains came from the Strait of Hormuz markets. Despite having a complete thesis and model for the Iran war, I’m sticking to the markets that have resolutions grounded in the reality. I’ve been burnt enough trying to play Trump’s yapping and I’m better off leaving this to swing traders. My deal-related holdings in June were minimal.
Additionally I have a great pipeline of new research that should keep me (and you) busy through the next couple of months.
The Bad
I should have put more on the US not winning the World Cup! But jokes aside, it was a great month. Even though I was extremely busy, the overall result is great. I have nothing to add here besides that I’m looking to keep up the good mental state and great execution that I had in June
Bankroll Comments
I have 45% of my bankroll available for trading. I’t a good improvement vs end of May, but I’m still below my sweet spot when it comes to the utilization. However, with a good research pipeline I’m aiming to allocate at least 15% towards new markets and keep the 30% for unexpected occasions.
Wrap Up
That’s all for today. As I’ve said before, new research is coming, but I need to keep you in the dark for just a bit longer before I can tease what it is.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.