Recap: Red
#15 State of the PROPHET NOTES
Welcome to the 15th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
February proved to be a difficult month, especially at the very end:
I started February with $23,419 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $18,350.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is -21.5% for the month and for -14% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations below are on the basis of starting bankroll.
The Good
I’ve been mentally prepared to handle the loss and I feel good with my analysis. My thinking around the conflict being difficult was correct and I have high confidence in my war analysis.
Additionally, I continue to have a good pipeline of events to focus on to recoup my recent losses. And that’s it, after all it was a red month so more bad things happened than good.
The Bad
Whole February went splendid. Up until the very last day, when not only Israel and the US strike on Iran happened, but they also managed to kill Khamenei at the very start of the conflict.
The bad thing here was not the thesis. It was an expectation that all actors are rational. In hindsight we see that the strike is not an astounding victory, the jury is still out and chances are it will all end badly. Killing Khamenei was a stupid decision, especially since they replaced him with his son.
The US made a mistake, they came in underprepared. But I have to account for mistakes in my theses. I need to be more attentive to details and understand when the vibe is shifting. For example, I should have recognized the Omani FM interview as the last hailmary that reeked of desperation, rather than a good tactic to save the negotiations. Desperate hailmaries rarely work. Full post mortem available here:
I also lost a few hundred bucks on the US forces on the ground after the fake OSINT report, showing I need to be extremely careful when trading on unconfirmed rumors. The space is really filled with propaganda and pure fake news.
Bankroll Comments
I have 79% of my bankroll to deploy and I’m looking at Iran, Cuba and Hungary in the near future. After a flurry of geopolitical events it will be nice to focus on European election. I continue to be more conservative with my bankroll allocations.
Wrap Up
And that’s all for today. We are on for the greener waters in March with plenty of markets and content ahead.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.