Recap: Sideways
#17 State of the PROPHET NOTES
Welcome to the 17th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
March proved to be a volatile month, especially at the very end (again):
I started April with $18,603 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $17,700.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is -4.9% for the month and for -17% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations are on the basis of starting bankroll.
The Good
I realized I’ve been too careless about my positions, especially considering the timezone I’m in. Since my portfolio is mainly Iran war and developments happen fast, usually overnight from where I am, I need to be more cautious and catch signals early. Additionally, in my last 2 portfolio updates I finally developed a sound framework for analyzing the war, focusing on the next steps vs how it could end.
Thanks to that, I had 2 main good positions, one being the Strait of Hormuz normalization market, where I was and am on No and the Iran airspace closure market (which is a proxy for war restarting), where I am also on No on the short-term markets.
The Bad
The main bad development in my portfolio, from which most of the losses result, is going into the peace market Yes in the second half of April, just ahead of the flurry of good news from Trump. At one point I was way up on the positions, but surprisingly the second diplomatic meeting in Islamabad never happened (despite multiple signals it will, not only in the media) and I ended up going to zero on my end of April position.
I don’t really think it was a mistake, based on multiple sources of intel I had at the time, but it happens. Other than that, I bought a losing QatarEnergy market on a false assumption that it wouldn’t resolve on news prior to market creation. I need to be more careful about such markets.
Bankroll Comments
I have 38% of my bankroll available, finally coming closer to utilizing most of it vs letting it sit. Looking at May, I will continue to focus on the Iran markets and I will include Cuba analysis as well as Ukraine war deep dive as I see some developments happening in both this month or in June.
Mentally I feel good about my trading and analysis, even though April wasn’t a good month from the P&L perspective. My market selections and entries were good and I’m not letting variance to get into my head.
Additionally, I have a few good ideas for May and beyond, giving me confidence in execution.
Wrap Up
And that’s all for today. Despite a slightly down month I feel progress and I’m looking forward to what will happen next.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.