Recap: You Can't Always Win
#11: State of the PROPHET NOTES
Welcome to the eleventh State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
There is no use sugarcoating - October was my worst month yet:
I started October with $25,500 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $22,500.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is -12% for the month and 417% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations below are on the basis of starting bankroll.
The Good
This month’s losses are purely from one market - Gaza ceasefire. As we enter November, I have already done my job and issued a proper post mortem on the market:
Besides the Gaza ceasefire I had a good month:
11% return on Mamdani to win NYC market on 15% of my bankroll.
11% return on no phase two in Gaza by the end of October on 5% of my bankroll
My positions on Russia escalating are holding steady while the drone sightings continue in Europe.
I am building positions on the Venezuelan markets while I’m writing my deep dive.
Overall with way more time on my hands, I’m was more engaged with global affairs and had more time to properly research markets I enter. I took a couple of low hanging fruits and I have my focus on Venezuela. I am also doing a preliminary work on the situation in Africa.
I am also looking towards the end of they year and to redeem the bonds I am currently holding:
Powell to stay as Fed chair,
No ceasefire in Ukraine, probably my best bet of the year,
No nuclear detonation,
and others.
This also means that I am starting to think about my allocations for the next year.
Additionally I have entered the Hive x Betmoar competition - The Genesis Cup and I am looking forward to winning it. Stay tuned for fun trades and interviews while over a 100 traders battle with $200 starting bankroll.
The Bad
Gaza ceasefire. And that’s about it. All the other positions are doing good and I also believe that my sizing is now better across the markets.
Bankroll Comments
As it stands now I have 48% of my bankroll available. I enter November with a clear head and directed focus. With Venezuela markets as well as potential disruptions in the Middle East, I have enough capital to jump in on any opportunity that might present itself.
Wrap Up
And that’s all for today. October was surely a humbling month, but also a one that enabled me to learn a lot of lessons. Stay tuned for my Venezuela deep dive and see you soon - I may have a few content surprises down the line ;)
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.