Red Light, Green Light
Situation Monitor #12: 6/26/2026 Weekly Portfolio Update
To understand an action, you need to understand the purpose. A week and a half ago we learned of an MoU between the US and Iran. It was my outlier scenario.
It is pretty clear that Trump needed a deal more so than I estimated. My portfolio was well-positioned for the move. I recognized the risk and held most of my capital in the Strait-of-Hormuz-related markets.
Now, since we have a deal that introduces a somewhat new concept around the SOH, in addition to affirming the status quo, I need to update the model I created to analyze the conflict. On the one hand, we have a theoretically open SOH. On the other hand, the flow is being actively limited by IRGC strikes and the traffic is predominantly outbound.
How does it fit into my mental model? Does it render it moot? Or does it fit well into my long-term assumptions?
The Strait of Hormuz
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