Situation Monitor #1: Iran, Ukraine & Venezuela

2/27/2026 Weekly Portfolio Update

For some time now my theses and positions are on events that tend to evolve over time. It has been especially true of anything that Trump touches - from the Ukraine war to current Iran deal negotiations, it feels like every week brings new information that has direct influence on fair value of my positions.

Thus I decided to start a new series for my paid subscribers. Every week on Friday, I will go over my positions and update my fair value assessment with rationale. I cannot do a deep dive every week - it’s not even about quality, it’s about tempo of global developments. But I can show you what I consider signal, why and how it influences my assessment.

It will be shorter than my deep dives and with more loose thoughts. Enjoy, if you read Superforecasting by Tetlock you know how much value there is in updating fair value assessments.

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Iran