In the work of a geopolitical analyst you need to be ready anytime for any situation. I fancy myself one so yesterday instead of sleeping at 2:30 AM I was monitoring the situation. It’s one thing when there is war far away, in another country. It’s completely other thing when the country under a potential attack is your country!
A momentary presence of Russian drones in Polish airspace has been a common occurrence for some time now. They were flying there to avoid Ukrainian air defense systems and strike “from behind”. However this time, at least 19 drones breached Polish airspace and continued deep into the country.
We are now close to 24 hours post the incursion and well, the Polish government’s only reaction is praising how well NATO worked to neutralize the danger. I had news in the background for the whole day and being honest, I learned nothing I didn’t know at 2:30 AM. And I learned even less from various guests, from ex-military to “geopolitical analysts” - no wonder as they were mostly managing emotions.
I’m happy to do their job and show you why it happened, what will be the Polish and NATO reaction and what will be the consequences for the future.
Did Russia Just Start Another War?
Short answer here is no. But long answer is where things get interesting. Because the fact is that Russia is in a war with Poland for quite some time now. It’s just not a kinetic one (yet).
Since the start of the Ukraine war, Russia is engaged in what is called a hybrid war. And in case of Poland it is fought on several fronts:
Cyberspace
You all know about various Russian bots / accounts pushing their propaganda on various social media. But pushing fake news is not the only thing Russia does.
For example, 2 years ago people connected with Russia hacked into Polish railway systems, causing many trains to stop in the middle of their routes. Additionally you could hear the Russian anthem and some speech by Vladimir Putin on railway radio bandwidth. You can read more about it here.
That’s not all. There are regular occurrences of hacking regarding critical infrastructure, including water and energy. You can read about one example here.
There are probably plenty other attacks that we don’t even hear about.
Sabotage
Another space of Russian hybrid warfare is sabotage. From espionage to arson, Russian actions stretch way beyond Poland (more info here).
The most notorious action in recent times was a series of arsons, from a shopping center in Warsaw to construction warehouses across the country.
Immigration
Probably the most devious practice. Russia and Belarus recruit people in developing countries, tempting them with better life in Europe, only to throw them at the Polish (and Baltics to be precise) border. Blocked by Belarusian military from one side, they try to make a run for Poland.
The situation at this border is so severe that Poland build a wall and the military is patrolling the border at all times. There were even incidents with firing a weapon. You can read in detail about the situation here.
Airspace
It’s a pretty notorious practice, especially around Kaliningrad, where Russia engages in GPS signal jamming on a large scale. While the practice is more of an inconvenience than a major issue, it just adds up to a concentrated effort to destabilize Poland and its society.
Additionally, as I mentioned in the beginning, it is routine that Russian drones and missiles breach Polish airspace to go around Ukrainian air defenses during strike waves.
On top of that there were a few cases of rogue drones landing in Poland, however these were isolated incidents and in once case the suspected drone was actually a Ukrainian air defense missile.
So What Is Different Now?
The main difference is that in previous airspace incursions, there was either a plausible deniability, eg. losing control of a drone, or the incursions were so brief that they didn’t pose any threat to Poland.
This time differs in both scale and intention of the incursion:
There were at least 19 drones that breached the Polish airspace.
The drones were aimed at Poland and flew deep into Polish territory.
Considering the scale, we cannot assume there is any plausible deniability here. It’s escalation and a direct one - previous actions could be considered as somehow indirect. This time the attack came from Russian and Belarusian territory. For the avoidance of doubt the direction as well as the make of the drones points strictly at Russia. Ukraine doesn’t make or use this type of drones at all.
It is important to point here that the drones that came into Poland today didn’t carry any warheads as far as we know. Currently all drones that were found (not all were) were Gerber drones that function as either recon or decoy drones.
So while this is a serious escalation, there was no significant danger to Poland or Polish people.
Government Reaction
Here is where we can see a stark difference compared to eg. Middle East. Yesterday, after Israel strike Hamas in Qatar, Qatar was fast to threaten retaliation. Poland did no such thing.
First communication regarding the incursion came in a form of NOTAMs, first for Rzeszów Airport, then Lublin and finally two Warsaw Airports. But the official acknowledgement came only in the early morning hours.
Since then we learned the number of drones (at least 19), the NATO cooperation was confirmed and we are awaiting full assessment of the situation. We are also waiting for Trump-Nawrocki call, after which we should learn more about next moves.
My job though is to tell you what is likely to happen before it happens.
What’s Next?
I expect that there will be no kinetic response to the incursion. Contrary to the Middle East countries, NATO is weary of drawing itself deeper into the conflict. Personally I think that a symmetrical response like sending a few recon drones into Kaliningrad would be appropriate, but I know it won’t happen.
Here I’m aligned with the market:
What we are bound to see is a lot of strongly worded statements, especially around commitment to Ukraine assistance and praise of NATO cooperation. We should see a strong condemnation of the Russian attack as well.
Beyond that, there are a few possible consequences.
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