State of the PROPHET NOTES
#0: The experiment is over
The experiment is over. I have set out with this project back in the beginning of the year to see if I am sharp enough to have a consistent edge over the consensus on the global affairs. After close to a year and many markets traded, I am confident to move on to the next phase.
However, first a little backstory. I have a Polymarket account since 2020. I was not using it for the first couple of years, besides some testing with small stakes (resulting in a total loss; if I remember correctly my P&L was ca. $100 in the red when I started the experiment). The thing is I am a young guy from Eastern Europe, who up until pretty recently had no cash to spare. I am smart though so I have made some good choices and changed my situation a bit. Still on the path to the riches, but not looking back.
I have always had a knack for politics (that is why I even created the account in the first place), so with some funds to spare I decided to top up my account with roughly $1,000 and take a swing at it. For some it may be little, for others a lot. Honestly, I do not care what you think - it is a $1,000 more than your favorite pundit has at stake.
Additionally, over the course of the year I have been improving on my idea to run a geopolitics, politics and economy Substack, focused on global affairs predictions and analysis. My aim was to bring accountability to politics - if you predict, take a position. Forecasters are a dime a dozen, but with little accountability. Prediction markets give you the opportunity to actually validate who is worth your read. Times are changing - MSM columnist should start to get worried.
During the last few months I was putting out articles, refining my writing skills and putting up my opinions for critique. I was also taking positions on every deep dive I have written and most of the markets I commented on in the weekly global outlooks. What was lacking though was an actual tracker of my performance. That changes now.
Since the start of my experiment I have made roughly 1.9x return on my capital (considering additional $250 that I won on a bet outside of Polymarket and put it there). There were many good decisions, some bad, and some blunders (like losing $130 on a misclick). Once again, some will say it is little, other will say it is a lot. I am sure that there are many traders and bettors who beat my returns. Great for them, congratulations! But the truth is that 90% of Polymarket wallets are in red.
Vast majority of my trades were on geopolitics and elections vs eg. mention markets. Thus I consider my results to be great - way better than returns on stocks! Whatever the future holds, this shows me that this year I have beaten the consensus. There is actual alpha in my writing that is worth sharing.
That is why I am moving to the next phase. Starting now a few things will happen:
I am topping up my account with another $1,000 in the coming days - as a show of confidence from my side I am investing all the profits from my Substack up to date + an additional allocation from my savings. I am looking to increase my bankroll both organically (ie. betting profits) and inorganically through my profits outside of the predictions world. Each top up will be reported from now on. That should create a flywheel effect increasing my bankroll non-linearly - after all my aim is to be right and I want to capitalize on this. With Substack I want to share my alpha with both prediction markets enthusiasts and people outside of the sphere that just want to know what will happen - I believe that we need more truth in this world. For now I need a (very time consuming) full-time job to support myself and your support here will bring me one step closer to focusing on predictions on a full-time basis - many thanks to the people that have already trusted me and gave me the confidence to keep going. I appreciate your support!
I am revealing my account on Polymarket for visibility. Truth be told, some of you have probably figured it out already thanks to my positions on the more obscure markets that were visible and the fact that on my X tips I have a wallet linked that I once used to top up my Polymarket account. However, I want to make it official.
Starting now, after the end of each month I will put out a free article on State of the PROPHET NOTES with my performance from last month. It will serve as a post mortem analysis and accountability tracker. I am standing against conventional forecasters and journalists who earn from drama and ads (and a salary) - I want to beat them with truth so this is the only viable way forward.
This State of the PROPHET NOTES is an introduction with my reveal - thus the #0. In the first week of January, the series will have its official kick-off where I will analyze my December performance and put out my plans for the next year.
PROPHET NOTES are growing up, 2025 will be the year of full operational capability with required transparency on results. I cannot wait for it as 2025 is shaping up to be volatile and wild!
Thank you for reading and let’s grow together in this volatile next year!