State of the PROPHET NOTES
#2: January recap, February Outlook
Welcome to the second State of the PROPHET NOTES. As a reminder I am using this series to give you an update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
January proved to be a great start of the year. Trump presidency is surely a net positive on prediction market activity. Both the amount of new markets as well as volatile conduct of our new President make for a perfect environment to make great money on predictions.
Summary
January was definitely a green month. Being almost fully invested and having little time resulted in less activity on prediction markets.
I started January with $1,970 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $3,970.
I injected additional capital of $1,413.
Total ROIC is 29.8% for the year and for the month. January return was calculated on the initial capital basis as the injection happened in the last days of January.
Comment: when I mention bankroll allocation I take beginning of last month to determine share of bankroll bet.
Deep Dives
This month’s deep dives focused on the mid to long-term. I covered:
Elon Musk’s ambitions with a small prediction for German election,
the American Imperialism which will be evaluated probably at the end of the year,
the Gaza ceasefire deal which will meet it’s reckoning in the next two months and
the population decline which influences my long-term geopolitical bets.
So nothing to report this month, but next two months will be instrumental in validating my approach.
Other Major Predictions
Taking a look on other major predictions from Weekly Global Outlooks and X I will divide them in 2 categories.
In The Green
I had a few interesting trades that finished in the green:
Trump inauguration mentions market:
Crypto or Bitcoin: 70.65% return on the No position with 50% of my bankroll,
Elon Musk: 45.69% return on the No position with 7.87% of my bankroll,
God 4+ times: 51.54% return on the Yes position with 3.35% of my bankroll,
Kamala: 33.33% return on the No position with 3.05% of my bankroll.
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?: 23.46% return on the Yes position with 6.17% of my bankroll.
Will Turkey recognize Syrian government by March?: 16.26% return on the Yes position with 2.62% of my bankroll.
In The Red
Not much here, mostly longshots:
100+ bird flu cases in US by February: 0.69% of my bankroll.
TikTok on AppStore before February: 0.73% of my bankroll.
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in the first week: 1.60% of my bankroll.
Other Major Portfolio Movements
Here there are several worthy movements on more long term positions:
I exited my Ukraine ceasefire No position for a small gain to allocate funds to Crypto No on mentions market. I am looking to get back at a better price.
I hold a few positions on AfD overperformance in the elections with small gains - more on that during German election deep dive.
I hold a Yes position on Polish Presidential election market for Karol Nawrocki as I believe that he is severely underpriced. Short comment: I am 99% certain that there will be a second round between Rafał Trzaskowski (KO candidate, equivalent of the Democratic party in Poland) and Karol Nawrocki (PiS candidate, equivalent of the Republican party). A few years back I met Rafał and talked with him when he was a candidate for the President of Warsaw. He is very unimpressive, lacks the required political instincts and is a very mediocre speaker. On top of that he is running a very liberal campaign. Karol Nawrocki’s campaign is not a lot better, but he is a fresh candidate and PiS has TV Republika behind them now, a TV station. Also as in the US, the right has a lot better online influence than the left. One wild card in the Polish election is the sudden appearance of Krzysztof Stanowski as an independent candidate. He is a journalist / celebrity that is extremely popular in Poland. He is making a show out of a Presidential campaign and is trying to humiliate the Polish political class. A Trump lite, he won’t win, but is bound to make some turmoil.
Bankroll Comments
At the moment I have 71% of my bankroll available for betting on the new markets.
The very high amount of unutilized bankroll is due to recent big addition to my bankroll. I am looking to deploy additional 20% in the coming days and slowly deploying the remaining 50% on good value when it happens.
Last month I wrote that I aim to go in with higher conviction on markets I believe that are wildly mispriced. With the mentions market, I believe I am living by my resolution and aim is to continue deploying with relative size.
Wrap Up
Despite being very concentrated, a great performance for the start of the year. I am looking to keep the momentum going forward. In the short term I am looking to deploy funds to geopolitical markets mostly, around the Middle East and the Ukrainian war.
As you also know, I am ending my job on the 21st of February. Up until this point my activity on the markets might be limited as I still have a few commitments that I need to fulfill, but after that I am looking at being way more active.
I hope that you enjoyed this update and we will see each other on X and here soon. Also if you have any questions, feedback or just want more visibility into a specific market, trade or approach, leave a comment here or on X under the post with the article - my aim is to have full transparency on my trading vis-à-vis my articles (FYI I am still due to trade on yesterday’s weekly outlook).
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.