State of the PROPHET NOTES
#3: The Golden Days of Trump Continue
Welcome to the third State of the PROPHET NOTES. As a reminder I am using this series to give you an update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
After a strong January, February was another great month. Trump is a gift that keeps on giving. At least on prediction markets, we will see the effects on the real world soon enough.
Summary
February proved to be a very profitable month, despite being short:
I started January with $3,970 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $5,201.
No additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is 31% for the month and 70% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations below are on the basis of starting bankroll.
Deep Dives
This month’s deep dives focused on both short and long-term. I covered:
USAID, where I put out my thesis on not so quick dissolution of the agency. Entered the market below at 70c for No, looking good to print:
German elections, where ultimately two out of three bets hit:
AfD in 20%-25% range for 73.25% return on 14.4% of my bankroll,
CDU & SPD to form a coalition for currently 65.4% return on 7.6% of my bankroll,
AfD win more seats miss, a loss of 0.2% of my bankroll.
Ukraine minerals deal, where all points to a success, to be reported later.
The Gaza ceasefire deep dive from last month is looking ripe for March, where all signs point to no Phase 2 and resumed fighting.
Other Major Predictions
Taking a look on other major predictions from Weekly Global Outlooks and X I will divide them in 2 categories.
In The Green
I had a few interesting trades that finished in the green:
Trump SOTU mentions market:
Crypto or Bitcoin: 92.6% return on the No position with 15.6% of my bankroll.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?: 37% return on the No position with 2.5% of my bankroll.
In The Red
Only one position to report:
Georgescu banned from Romanian election?: sold my Yes position and took a loss of 0.9% of my bankroll.
Other Major Portfolio Movements
Here there are several worthy movements on more long term positions:
I reentered the Ukraine ceasefire markets: No on 90 days timeframe (12.6% of bankroll with 12.6% return for now) and No by the end of July (5.4% of bankroll with 15.1% loss for now).
I hold a No on Gold missing from Fort Knox market, entered with 12.6% of my bankroll, 5.9% return for now.
I entered a No position on Sławomir Mentzen becoming the next president of Poland with 7.8% of my bankroll - flat for now.
Yoon reinstated as President before July - I entered on the No side with 5.3% of my bankroll, 3.5% down for now.
Bankroll Comments
At the moment I have 22.9% of my bankroll available for betting on the new markets.
I have additional 19.1% tied up in the German election markets waiting for the final resolution, giving me a total of 42% of my bankroll ready for allocation if needed.
Last month I commented on my 71% of unused bankroll as being high, but regardless I was forced to liquidate some of my German election wins yesterday to allocate fully to the No on crypto mention. 22.9% free cash plus 19.1% in a bond gives me a good room to allocate to new opportunities in March. Depending on the news cycle, I will be looking to allocate to ceasefire markets in both the Middle East and Ukraine. Other than that, I will be waiting for new great markets like crypto mention - that’s a gift that keeps on giving.
Wrap Up
Another great month, even better than January. I can say that my sizing has improved, especially on the markets where I have high conviction. I also increased my quasi-bonds allocation as opportunities such as gold in Fort Knox are just too good to miss at 80c for No.
I expect March to be a slower month with plays between the war markets mostly. Next big election are only in May in Poland. I hope you had an equally green month (or better!) and we will see each other today or tomorrow for the next deep dive!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.