State of the PROPHET NOTES
#1: December recap, January Outlook
Welcome to the first proper State of the PROPHET NOTES. As a reminder I am using this series to give you an update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
December was an overall quiet month in terms of my prediction market activity. I was mostly invested already and had little maneuverability. That being said I had some predictions, both good and bad.
Summary
My performance in December was flat. Being almost fully invested and having little time resulted in less activity on prediction markets.
I started December with $1,870 in my portfolio
Today my portfolio stands at $1,970
There were no outside inflows or outflows.
Total ROIC is 107.4% for the year and 5.3% for the month.
Comment: when I mention bankroll allocation I take beginning of last month to determine share of bankroll bet.
Deep Dives
In terms of deep dives, there were only two that I can comment on after December. And this time it is a one that I did not trade - the Honda and Nissan merger. My take on the course of events was 100% correct - the unclear rules of the market prevented me from betting there.
Next deep dive was around the Romanian presidential election. While directionally correct (the global rise of the right), the outlier candidate and subsequent annulment of the election left me in a strange spot.
For now I still have my Ciolacu and Simon positions. I also added a position on Georgescu being banned from running. We are yet to see the next chapter in the Romanian saga - my positioning is currently to benefit from the outlier being banned and the established left or right taking the presidency.
Other Major Predictions
Taking a look on other major predictions from Weekly Global Outlooks and X I will divide them in 2 categories.
In The Green
Besides the Apple investing in OpenAI market that has finally resolved I had a few interesting trades that finished in the green:
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2024: 23.46% return on the No position with 6.3% of my bankroll
Pershing Square IPO in 2024: 96.12% return on the No position with 2.7% of my bankroll.
Trudeau out: I took a small loss on the Trudeau out market in 2024, but got it back on the Monday market for a breakeven.
Beyonce top artist of the century: I did not write down exact numbers, but did gain relatively a lot here as I was positioned against Taylor Swift that had 90/10 odds for majority of the time.
Other considerations: No on chopsticks catching the booster, Yes on Bundestag dissolved, both with sub 5% bankroll allocation and outsized returns (ca. 5x and 2x respectively).
In The Red
Here I had mostly small bet with massive upside that did not hit. Besides them:
Yoon impeached in 2024: took a total loss here of 4% of my bankroll.
Took a total loss of 2.5% of my bankroll on a series of small gambles for an outsized return.
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire: ca. 2.5% of my bankroll lost here on No position
Other Major Portfolio Movements
Here there are several worthy movements on more long term positions:
Trump to end Ukraine war in the first 90 days: currently sitting on 24.43% return. I have entered the trade at ca. 57c on the No side with 22.5% of my bankroll. This is my highest conviction bet at the moment.
Syrian election before July: 30.56% return on the No position with a practically certain No resolution now with 2.7% of my bankroll.
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration: 16.06% return on the No position with 3.4% of my bankroll.
Number of federal employees decreased by no more than 25k: 111.36% return on the Yes position with 3.2% of my bankroll.
Will Turkey recognize Syrian government by March 31: 44.77% loss on the Yes position with 2.7% of my bankroll. I am still holding on here as my fundamentals did not change.
Bankroll Comments
At the moment I have 37% of my bankroll available for betting on the new markets. Additionally I am still yet to add another $1,000 to my bankroll which should commence in the next few weeks.
The high amount of unutilized bankroll is due to end of year resolutions and me wanting to have free capital once Trump is in office. Additionally I am looking to enter Cabinet confirmations market in the next week.
Resolution for 2025 is to go in generally with a higher bankroll allocation. I have often found myself wishing I bet more on events I had high conviction in - eg. Syrian election market.
Wrap Up
Overall a decent performance in December considering my low level of activity. For now I am very concentrated in the Ukraine ceasefire and Romanian election, especially on the banning of Georgescu with a total of 17% of my bankroll (+22.5% on Ukraine gives almost 40% of bankroll in these two positions). I will not increase my exposure to Romania, but I might buy more on Ukraine ceasefire depending on the situation.
Both bankroll extension as well as current free money will be used for new events, especially after Trump inauguration. After a slow month I am looking to get back in the game, especially considering that a lot of my time will become free soon with my W-2 commitment ending.
Additionally I am looking for your questions on performance, plans or views on specific markets. Both here and on X. In the meantime stay in the green!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.